Stroud did more for Nico and Tank than the other way around

Which direction the symbiotic relationship runs is always tough to parse

I’ve been trying to figure out how to articulate my point on the Stefon Diggs trade, and I think this headline is it. There’s a symbiotic relationship between QBs and WRs, and obviously elite WRs can elevate their QBs just as elite QBs can obviously elevate their WRs. I think we can all immediately think of examples of each.

One of the tricky parts of the Houston analysis right now is rookie C.J. Stroud broke out alongside rookie Tank Dell and third-year star Nico Collins, and parsing why it happened is more difficult when it was a major early-career breakout for each.

And in a lot of cases, we don’t even need to parse it — it’s often not super relevant why it happened, because you can just bet on the same conditions existing the next year. But the Diggs trade shakes that up here. We need to peel back the layers of the 2023 Texans’ offense. And for me, when I do that, I’m applying a lot more credit to Stroud than the incumbent WRs.

I need to be clear that doesn’t mean I’m out on Collins or Dell, and I’ll wind up saying that a few different ways in the post today. I do think both of them are good and will be good going forward. I also think the interesting contract stuff with Diggs — where they essentially restructured him down to a one-year deal — signifies a long-term plan of building with Collins and Dell around Stroud once Stroud is set to get an extension and the rookie contract window closes (i.e. Diggs is a luxury they can take on now because the other guys are all underpaid, but they won’t have that luxury in a couple years and are already making their commitment on the organizational level to the younger WRs, which makes sense, but is still notable).

So there is plenty of inertia at play that benefits both Collins and Dell, including that they played in the offense with the QB last year, the most significant note. And they were obviously incredible last year. That said, as I wrote about in the Houston TPRR breakdown, the Texans had weak depth last year that helped allow Collins and Dell to consolidate volume.

Among the key notes, Robert Woods ran over 400 very empty routes, and Noah Brown set a career-high in per-route volume-earning. I’m going to copy/paste liberally here, because I think it’s interesting I talked through my belief the Texans could upgrade their third pass-catcher slot in a way that would impact Collins and Dell even if that was just a rookie, given that player would be replacing extremely poor Woods routes:

Noah Brown was another ex-Cowboy who found early success with Houston, posting a 1.94 YPRR in a splashy season. His rise to an 18.4% TPRR on a solid 293 routes after weaker numbers in his time in Dallas helps emphasize that the targets needed to go somewhere. A big part of that was Robert Woods showing his age, as he ran 417 routes and posted a second straight career-low YPRR season at a disgusting 1.02, with his TPRR dipping further and his 5.7 YPT being unplayable.

We want pieces of this offense, but the only ones that have clear roles carved out for 2024 are Collins, Dell, and [Dalton] Schultz. Brown looks to be in a decent position, but Houston addressed needs in free agency thanks to major cap space and might be able to go best player available a bit more than other teams in the draft, which in a WR-heavy class could lead to a rookie competing for starter routes in three-wide sets. If that does happen, you’re talking about a pretty drastic change in target competition if that rookie is at all good, mostly because a huge chunk of what he’d replace would be those really poor 417 Woods routes.

That does mean mild concern about Collins but probably more Dell, in terms of ability to maintain those elite TPRR/wTPRR profiles. It was undeniably nice for those guys that Noah Brown was one of the biggest target threats, and Woods was running so many routes.

That the Texans assessed this part of their roster similarly isn’t a huge surprise; they had the resources and after losing Dell late in 2023, they were especially thin at WR in the most important part of the season. But even as someone convinced they’d upgrade here, I was as blindsided as anyone at the Diggs trade. This was a bigger move than I anticipated.

As I wrote in my Bills’ breakdown, Diggs still earned elite volume in 2023; his profile just dipped on the efficiency side. Here’s a snapshot of Diggs’ peripherals over his career, and you should focus more on his four-year run in Buffalo starting in 2020 (mostly because more recent seasons are going to be more relevant).

Those weighted TPRR figures — which include air yards — detail a guy who consistently gets his looks. I left the Minnesota years in the screenshot because even dating back to his rookie year as a Day 3 pick, he had solid volume.

Now, strong runs like this end for every player, and Diggs turns 31 in November of this year, so there’s certainly no guarantee he’ll keep doing this forever. But something I would point out is how his annual YPRRs have been driven by his YPT efficiency, because the volume has been so consistent. And his volume is so good that even his low-end seasons like last year’s 1.99 YPRR are still very good.

There’s just not a lot of evidence that Diggs is aging yet, or has gone over the hill, and again I’ll emphasize that it would have been meaningful to Collins and Dell if anyone even vaguely competent replaced those 417 Woods routes.

By means of comparison, here are Collins’ peripherals in his three seasons, and you can see how his volume-earning last year was right up there with peak Diggs, while he also added a YPT that gave him a YPRR Diggs has never really even approached:

Nico Collins is good, which is not something you need me to tell you if you paid attention to football in 2023. But it’s also worth pointing to those 2021 and 2022 seasons, and while I actually see some positives there that tell the story of a young player progressing from Year 1 to Year 2 and then taking off in Year 3 when the QB play got massively better, it reinforces the headline of this post that Stroud probably did more for Collins than the other way around. I say that in particular as it relates to Collins’ elite 11.9 YPT, which would be difficult to maintain under any circumstances (but as you know, I don’t love talking about it in terms of “regression,” because it’s important to acknowledge it’s a good thing he was this good).

For Dell, the TPRR was a little lower, but at a higher aDOT, which still gave him a comparable wTPRR to both Diggs and Collins in the upper-sixties.

This is another great line, but it meaningfully trails Collins is basically all respects. One note on the YPT is you do want to be aware of the aDOT and depth-adjusting, and so Dell’s 9.6 YPT at an aDOT of 14.4 is I guess “worse” in comparison to what Collins did with his 11.9 YPT at an aDOT of 11.5 than the 2.3-yard gap immediately indicates. (That doesn’t mean it’s bad, it’s just a little note.)

Dell as a prospect was comparatively old, light, and from a small school, so his draft capital was impacted by factors other than his production on the field, which was very strong at Houston. Even still, he was an early third-round pick who immediately produced at the NFL level with a YPRR over 2.0. I will continue to say I’m not out on either Collins or Dell.

What I’ve tried to detail here is more that while I believe my default stance should be to side with the young stars that already found success with Stroud, I do have to recognize that Diggs — even in his age-31 season — could step in and be a pretty huge volume-earner. In fact, I said on Stealing Bananas I’d probably put it at 60-40 that Diggs leads Collins in targets (which obviously still argues there’s a strong likelihood Collins leads Diggs).

I’m not out on the interpretation of this where Diggs doesn’t really threaten the young guys, but again the headline as I wrote it is I think notable, especially when you consider the production of someone like Noah Brown. Let’s just look at the meaningful seasons of his career for some context of why I’ve mentioned him a few times.

He got hurt in 2023 and only ran the 293 routes, but a career high in TPRR at a career-high aDOT, with an easy career high in YPT as the main note.

Despite a career-high drop rate, Dalton Schultz also looks like he had no trouble transitioning to a new offense, matching his career-high YPRR and essentially being the same player he was at his best while in Dallas.

I’m not saying that just any player would have succeeded alongside Stroud — because for example Robert Woods was awful — or that what guys like Brown and Schultz did compare at all to what Collins and Dell did. Again, Collins and Dell are good.

But I do think Stroud was a major player for everyone, especially on the efficiency side. And as we saw in Diggs’ profile, the efficiency side is really key for him, unless he just really falls off in his target-earning in the new offense. That’s possible! He likely won’t get as much first-read deference and those types of things.

But my main point is Stroud is certifiably The Truth, in case that is at all unclear. That’s good for everyone involved, and that — plus the Texans’ flexibility this offseason — was why I took the Texans to win the AFC South about a month ago over at Stealing Lines (at +150; they are currently +110) and also to win the Super Bowl (at +2500; they are currently +1600). I legit think they can be that good this year, and I think you want exposure to all of these guys.

But when I look at their per-route profiles and consider what we saw from the Texans last year and why, I do have a willingness to consider that the old dude who just got acquired here — that has earned strong volume his whole career — might wind up earning strong volume again, see his efficiency brought along by the prodigy passer, and prove to be the best fantasy option.