Let’s (finally) get to the TE tiers. I got some great suggestions to label where there are smaller or bigger tier breaks. One was to do 1a/1b type stuff for smaller tiers, and I think that makes sense, but I think what is far more actionable is emphasizing the couple spots at each position where there is a big tier break.
So I’ll do both, and I’ll use this to emphasize when I think the gap between two tiers is more like a cliff:
As for targets and fades, I will bold all players I consider targets, and italicize all those I consider fades. The goal of the rankings is to have the targets ahead of ADP and fades behind ADP, but ADP varies wildly — especially on some of the sites where home leagues are often played — so know that in a lot of cases I would probably adjust the fades down if their ADPs are lower on your site and the targets up if they are higher.
Tier 1a
1. Travis Kelce
Kelce is still the clear top TE to me, largely on the basis of what I wrote in the Offseason Stealing Signals post about his midseason stinger and production in the playoffs indicating he maybe didn’t fall off last year. That falloff could still come in 2022, though, and there’s real risk in his profile. At the same time, his “down” regular season last year featured a 134-92-1125-9 line in 16 games that put him within a point per game of Mark Andrews’ dominant TE1 season, and more than two points per game clear of any other TE to still provide a real positional advantage over everyone else from TE3 on down. Kelce also tacked on the 27-23-299-3 three-game playoff stretch. The changes in the passing game are to me a net positive for him in that they added more depth of weaponry for defenses to account for but removed his single biggest target competition.
Tier 1b
2. Kyle Pitts
3. Mark Andrews
The gap from Kelce to Andrews and Pitts isn’t massive, but I do think there’s a gap here. Andrews is due for regression on his routes specifically, but he’s a phenomenally efficient player in terms of every aspect I look at — both TPRR and YPT which gives him great YPRRs, and also in TD production with above average rates for four straight seasons. The dude is just really good, but the team is going to drop back less, and the question for Andrews is whether they drop back a lot less, like they did in 2019 and 2020. There’s also a mild concern about Isaiah Likely generating rave camp reviews, and whether more TE depth will limit Andrews from maintaining quite the same level of routes per dropback as the massive jump he took in 2021. So it could be a dip in team volume and also route percentage, but I sincerely doubt he falls back anywhere close to his route percentages from 2020 and earlier.
Those are reasons that if these two were going back-to-back, I’d have Pitts higher. And actually, while writing this, I just decided to make that change. I’ve talked a ton about Pitts, but the main thing I’ve emphasized is I still want exposure to Andrews across my many rosters. Because Pitts often goes later in the second round in TE Premium and into the third in non-Premium leagues, I’m getting a lot of him, and I’m happy to take some Andrews earlier, too. But Pitts is the Year 2 profile who had a 1,000-yard season in a year where he played the first four weeks at 20 years old, so super young. And while pass volume is a concern, the addition of Drake London creates a perfect situation of a clear two-man passing game that should draw some attention from Pitts but not prevent him from growing into as large of a target share as his skills allow. There’s some uncertainty, there, in terms of just how good he is, but this is a bet we make, and his TE eligibility just makes it such an easy one.
Tier 2
4. Darren Waller
5. George Kittle