Underdog rankings updated
Final best ball rankings update
It’s been tough during managed league season to stay on top of the Underdog rankings as much as I’d like to, especially with ADPs moving so much on news. One of your fellow subscribers has been super helpful in that regard, as he sent me a list of names to consider. He’s been tracking the daily redraft rankings changes and trying to port them over to Underdog, but the ranking process is different, so he was hoping I’d review those names.
You can use promo code SIGNALS for a deposit match up to $1,000. Let’s talk about the few specific changes I’ve made, based on this list.
Samaje Perine has been aggressively ranked, and could be drafted ahead of this rank in contests like BBMV where the vast majority of drafts left him undrafted. Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua were last year’s examples of this element, where they went undrafted in a bunch of BBMs and it made them more unique in the money rounds. Perine fits that. I’ve also moved Dalvin Cook into vaguely draftable range, but I’m less likely to make that move, though I don’t think it’s absurd given the alternatives in Dallas (I think Cook is probably done, but you can’t make a positive argument for anyone in Dallas, and 26-yard-old Rico Dowdle has become the favorite largely by default).
I moved both Justin Fields and Drake Maye down a bit, but Fields more. Fields’ upside is clear, but my opinion on him possibly starting was more due to how bad Russell Wilson looked in preseason, and Wilson was dealing with a calf and maybe he’ll look better or something. My excitement about Maye was more about Maye, comparatively, and after a strong preseason, Maye’s time is coming.
I moved Jordan Mason up, but he’s been rising quicker than I think makes sense. Maybe I’m off on this one, because he does have a lot of talent, but the Elijah Mitchell IR placement didn’t answer the Isaac Guerendo question. There’s been a little bit of “out of sight, out of mind” this August where Mason’s strong camp and August role as the clear No. 2 guy doesn’t mean it’s certain he’ll still have that role over Guerendo, or that Deebo Samuel won’t really cut in, etc., should Christian McCaffrey miss time. I still like Mason, and moved him ahead of Khalil Herbert, who has a higher ADP, but still have him behind bigger swings like Kimani Vidal, who has a lower ADP. So if you do really like the Mason thesis, you might have to scroll down a bit in the rankings to make sure to get him (alternately, you can always toggle between the ranks and ADP to figure out the right pick, which is what I do, and in many cases I make an ADP pick that’s not the top rankings pick, because it fits a build better and differentiates me).
Another example of the “out of sight, out of mind” phenomenon is the Colts’ WRs, where Josh Downs got incredible camp buzz early that placed him squarely in the discussion for No. 1 on the team with Michael Pittman, but because he missed a lot of time in August — and that opened up creative slot usage for Adonai Mitchell — the rookie is now going much higher in some cases. Earlier reports had Mitchell and Alec Pierce splitting first-team reps in an outside role, but with Downs out, Pierce took that role and Mitchell moved into Downs’ work, it seemed. That’s still awesome to see for Mitchell, that creative stuff could develop, but based on how they feel about Downs — remember when GM Chris Ballard was absolutely gushing about him? — I like the injured guy as the better bet at a cheaper price. This isn’t to say injuries don’t matter, but merely that the response seems to go too far sometimes; I’m a little behind ADP on Mason, but would still draft him, and for the Colts, I have Mitchell ahead of Downs in the latest update, but Mitchell ranked below ADP and Downs ahead. I’ve been taking plenty of Downs as my slow drafts finish up, because he often falls well below an already discounted ADP, as people like to double count this stuff, giving an incredible price on an upside WR5 or WR6. I’ve also moved Guerendo into vaguely draftable range; I’m not really into that pick but the 18th round is barren right now and he’s certainly in the discussion.