Using TPRR to identify early NFC draft values
Using TPRR to identify early NFC draft values
WRs and TEs to target in early best ball drafts
Alright, let’s get through the NFC teams of this post. I did the AFC teams and explained what this all is here. I’m going to copy some of that introduction here as well for reference, but if you read the introduction last time, note that I’ve made no changes to it from this point on and you can fast forward to the teams below.
As I go team-by-team, I’m going to look at players who ran 100 or more routes last year, and everyone will be assigned to their 2022 teams as I’m analyzing this data in a descriptive way. What you’re looking at displayed below is:
Player Name - TPRR, wTPRR (total routes)
For TPRR, anything over 0.25 — meaning a target on 25% of routes — is very strong. But anything below about 18% gets to be pretty replaceable, and below 15% is essentially not fantasy-relevant. If that range feels tight, consider that on any given play there are five eligible pass-catchers, so in a perfectly equitable world where every pass attempt is targeted to a player, everyone would have a TPRR of 20%. (Of course, there are throwaways and routes where no one is targeted, and also eligible receivers pass block sometimes so five players don’t run a route on every play, and those things don’t totally cancel out but essentially you wind up with this range of 15%-25% for most players.)
For wTPRR, the scale is higher and wider because of how it incorporates air yards, and what constitutes “good” or “interesting” will differ by position, but for a WR you’re essentially talking about 0.65 and above as the strong end.
Here’s a short list of every player who ran at least 150 routes (a slightly higher threshold than I’ll use as I go team-by-team) and hit that 25% TPRR threshold in 2022, sorted by TPRR. It should give a frame of reference of the high end of TPRR, but also how RBs and TEs can fit in, and what high TPRRs at those positions typically equate to in terms of wTPRRs (because the hierarchy of aDOTs goes WRs deepest — averaging around 11.0 yards, but there are different types obviously — then TEs around 7.5 on average, but same about types, then RBs basically being near the line of scrimmage so aDOTs of 0 or sometimes in the negative, and anything at 2.0 or higher being interesting in terms of providing some of those sweet, sweet RB air yards).
You’ll also see in the routes number in parenthesis some small-sample players on this list — typically from those positions that pass block a decent amount, e.g. RB and TE — and it’s an important reminder that there is necessary context all over within this stat. The most important note is we can’t just extrapolate smaller routes samples to larger roles and assume a player will maintain the same strong TPRR. There’s more variance in smaller samples, and importantly in certain profiles. I’ve used Rondale Moore’s rookie year in 2021 as an example here before, because he got a lot of designed touches on a limited number of routes. RBs who have the ability to rack up dumpoffs on a sub-200-route sample are a whole group who fit this idea.
In other words, Ja’Marr Chase at 0.25, 0.61 on 518 routes is very strong, because Ja’Marr Chase is very good and his targets are very valuable. Rex Burkhead at 0.26, 0.47 on 189 routes both shows the reason for including wTPRR — Chase’s weighted volume is substantially higher per-route despite a slightly lower TPRR — and also is a word of caution on sample size, because Burkhead drawing a high TPRR on 189 routes is just a minor footnote.
Here’s the high-end list:
Tyreek Hill - 0.31, 0.85 (534)
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.29, 0.64 (483)
Austin Ekeler - 0.28, 0.45 (436)
Cooper Kupp - 0.28, 0.64 (338)
Drake London - 0.27, 0.71 (419)
Davante Adams - 0.27, 0.74 (618)
D'Andre Swift - 0.27, 0.45 (236)
Kyle Pitts - 0.27, 0.75 (211)
Chris Olave - 0.26, 0.77 (431)
Chigoziem Okonkwo - 0.26, 0.61 (172)
Stefon Diggs - 0.26, 0.69 (573)
Rex Burkhead - 0.26, 0.47 (189)
CeeDee Lamb - 0.26, 0.66 (571)
DeAndre Hopkins - 0.26, 0.66 (362)
Rhamondre Stevenson - 0.26, 0.42 (339)
Justin Jefferson - 0.26, 0.65 (690)
Mark Andrews - 0.25, 0.64 (434)
J.D. McKissic - 0.25, 0.45 (154)
Christian McCaffrey - 0.25, 0.44 (405)
Travis Kelce - 0.25, 0.58 (600)
Ja'Marr Chase - 0.25, 0.61 (518)
Let’s get into the data for the AFC teams, with some quick discussion for each team of how I’m viewing the data. I’d love to really get in-depth in every case, but I’m going to try to get through this without racking up a word count my in-season stuff would be jealous of.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb - 0.26, 0.66 (571)
Jake Ferguson - 0.21, 0.40 (105)
Dalton Schultz - 0.21, 0.47 (418)
Tony Pollard - 0.20, 0.37 (245)
Michael Gallup - 0.17, 0.46 (423)
Noah Brown - 0.15, 0.41 (452)
Peyton Hendershot - 0.13, 0.31 (112)
Ezekiel Elliott - 0.10, 0.16 (234)
CeeDee Lamb really elevated his per-route volume-earning in Year 3, after starting with years of 21.1% and 21.7% TPRRs. The thesis for Lamb last year was there was room not only for the per-route stuff to improve, but also that the raw routes were set to increase. Additionally, Lamb had shown strong after-the-target efficiency so far and maintained that, if not really elevating to some monster numbers. All of this worked out very similarly to the thesis that Lamb’s upside was something like Cooper Kupp’s breakout season, but that elevating all the elements in the way Kupp did was essentially impossible, and off the scale. Instead, Lamb had a smaller version of that bump, and it does leave at least some more meat on the bone from the perspective that every elite season ever tends to include some kind of hard-to-project “outlier” number and Lamb didn’t do that yet in 2022. Will he in some future season? It’s hard to say, but certainly is possible. His 571 routes still leave some room for more, though I worry about Mike McCarthy taking over the offense on overall pass volume. Lamb’s TPRR and wTPRR could definitely come back down but also leave a little room for even more, and his efficiency is the real key in the sense that it’s been consistently strong but he hasn’t yet had (and may never have) a monster efficiency season. But given he turns just 24 this month, there’s a lot to like here from a floor and ceiling perspective.
Dalton Schultz set a career high with a 20.6% TPRR, and that’s consistently improved for him. But he doesn’t do much else outside earning volume at a decent rate; there’s not a lot there from an efficiency sense, especially with an expected dip in QB play over in Houston. I’m pretty out on Schultz on the grounds his TPRR was never dominant and was frankly pretty average with just huge routes numbers in 2020 and 2021 until he sort of built it over time in familiar circumstances where he seemed to gain Dak Prescott’s trust a little bit. In other words, he’s the perfect type of guy where the long-term trends of underperforming pass-catchers after changing teams would concern me, because I think his past situation was pretty important to his success and was a big part of what got him on the free agent radar in the first place. That’s sort of the whole theory on why that type of player tends to struggle in their new digs, which I heard best laid out by Rich Hribar — that these players are essentially overvalued at the moment where they change teams.
Noah Brown also heads to Houston and is just a guy. Michael Gallup had a disappointing 2022 after an ACL tear late in the prior season, and it’s possible he’ll see that second-year bump post-ACL, but at this point there’s not a ton else in his profile to be optimistic about. His best season came all the way back in 2019, and it was a strong one that backed up a solid production profile as a prospect. But he struggled in 2020 and 2021 even before the ACL, and Brandin Cooks should be more of a focal point than Schultz and Brown were. The upside is Gallup is the clear third option in a passing game that gets concentrated, or that Lamb or Cooks miss time and he is able to play up as a clear second option. The downside is he’s a total afterthought.
The gap between Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott is at least a bit interesting, but some of it speaks to the designed touches Pollard gets on stuff like jet motion tip passes.
New York Giants
Wan'Dale Robinson - 0.23, 0.51 (129)
Richie James Jr. - 0.19, 0.44 (344)
Saquon Barkley - 0.19, 0.31 (379)
Matt Breida - 0.18, 0.33 (132)
Darius Slayton - 0.17, 0.47 (405)
Isaiah Hodgins - 0.17, 0.42 (262)
Lawrence Cager - 0.16, 0.35 (110)
David Sills - 0.13, 0.31 (126)
Daniel Bellinger - 0.12, 0.24 (279)
Kenny Golladay - 0.11, 0.29 (149)
Marcus Johnson - 0.11, 0.27 (188)
Tanner Hudson - 0.09, 0.21 (165)
What a list. Tons of names meet the route threshold, not much separation between a ton. Does a great job of explaining the mess that was this receiving corps last year.
I would have expected to see Isaiah Hodgins higher, to be honest, and I’m kind of bummed to see his production was maybe just a result of route volume. Makes me a little less excited to bet on a former Day 3 pick who finally got his chance and did find some efficiency, which is a fun profile to target but only at a certain price as these types of players can very quickly get replaced by higher-profile names. Richie James had a little stronger per-route numbers between those two late-season surprises.
Wan’Dale Robinson is the main note, and he looked to be really breaking out before his unfortunate injury. There are still concerns about how his size and profile might play in fantasy, but he was a target dominator in college and immediately posted strong numbers in a similar vein in his rookie season. Competition isn’t fierce in the offense, either, so I’m back in.
Daniel Bellinger is probably nothing, and Kenny Golladay is probably just done.
Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown - 0.24, 0.65 (578)
DeVonta Smith - 0.22, 0.55 (603)
Dallas Goedert - 0.17, 0.38 (385)
Kenneth Gainwell - 0.15, 0.25 (193)
Quez Watkins - 0.12, 0.30 (403)
Zach Pascal - 0.11, 0.24 (159)
Miles Sanders - 0.10, 0.17 (269)
Jack Stoll - 0.07, 0.16 (215)
We love a concentrated offense. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both hit big routes numbers and dominated per-route volume, with Dallas Goedert coming in as a clear third when he was healthy and then the other guys who ran a lot of routes — most notably Quez Watkins — being clear role-players who on a lot of play designs are likely intended to just run off coverage.
That type of offense obviously delineates things well for us in terms of who is fantasy-relevant, and I don’t really have a lot to add that the numbers don’t immediately suggest — Brown had the slight edge if you want to name a No. 1, but Smith did take a step forward and is very good, and then Goedert is in slightly disappointing range but it plays up as a TE who adds after-the-target efficiency.
Washington Commanders
J.D. McKissic - 0.25, 0.45 (154)
Antonio Gibson - 0.24, 0.42 (238)
Terry McLaurin - 0.20, 0.54 (583)
Curtis Samuel - 0.17, 0.38 (511)
John Bates - 0.16, 0.34 (128)
Logan Thomas - 0.16, 0.35 (366)
Jahan Dotson - 0.15, 0.44 (376)
Cam Sims - 0.10, 0.30 (177)
Here’s another team that was concentrated. The RBs saw a lot of volume, and the fact that it was both of them suggests it was possibly more a product of the offense than some skill set thing inherent to those backs that could overcome any situation. But both are solid receiving RBs.
Terry McLaurin posted a career-worst TPRR, but not by a ton, and continued his after-the-target efficiency. He was more or less the same guy he’s been, just with a bit more competition. Curtis Samuel got off to the fast start with Carson Wentz, but cooled considerably.
Jahan Dotson isn’t in a great TPRR range here, but was efficient and closed the season well, which is typically a great sign for rookie WRs. If you look at his game log, he had a really quiet stretch after missing five straight games, catching just two balls on four targets over three games after returning from injury (and he played decent snaps in each). So he winds up with a bit of a weird profile where negatives can be caveated — his routes sample isn’t huge, but he played nearly full time when active, which is a plus to earn out of the gate; his per-route numbers aren’t strong, but they were worst coming off injury and the limited sample puts a lot of weight on those games. Overall, I wasn’t as high on Dotson coming out as his first-round capital and don’t have a huge reason to change that opinion, but more specifically I don’t have a strong stance on him.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Darnell Mooney - 0.19, 0.51 (312)
Chase Claypool - 0.18, 0.46 (423)
Cole Kmet - 0.16, 0.38 (428)
David Montgomery - 0.14, 0.25 (270)
Equanimeous St. Brown - 0.14, 0.37 (280)
Dante Pettis - 0.12, 0.29 (308)
Khalil Herbert - 0.10, 0.15 (107)
Byron Pringle - 0.10, 0.29 (152)
I’ve written about the Bears’ comically low passing volume, and that’s evident here in the routes numbers, with some of Chase Claypool’s sample coming over from Pittsburgh. Claypool’s per-route numbers have steadily declined since a rookie year with a 23.6% TPRR and a very strong 0.66 wTPRR, but some of that very well may be situational. You could make a case against him for getting traded so early in his career, but then the Steelers got a really strong pick out of that move so it suggests value on the player obviously. I’m not an optimist here but I could understand that position at the right price.
Darnell Mooney went from a 17.9% TPRR as a rookie to 21.9% in Year 2 and then back down to 18.6% this past year, which was disastrous coupled with the routes cratering. Cole Kmet also fell to a career-low 16.1% TPRR from a 17.8% rate in Year 2.
Something does have to be said about Justin Fields and how many Bears plays included routes but no pass target — on the QB side, there are three statistical outcomes on a dropback, and the two that don’t include a pass attempt are scrambles and sacks, both of which Fields has incredibly high rates of. Fields took a league-high 55 sacks and also had a league-high 70 scrambles (per PFF charting that delineates scrambles from designed rushes) on just 444 total dropbacks, tied for 19th most in the NFL. That meant 125 (or 28%, which is an absurd number) of his dropbacks didn’t end with a pass attempt, which takes a massive chunk out of these per-route-run numbers for the receiving weapons. On some level, there is culpability on the receivers for not getting open and earning a target before a sack or scramble was necessary, but we can obviously recognize multiple influences in this specific situation, which is also how it winds up being such a high percentage. There’s a bad OL, there’s Fields’ tendencies, and there’s the element for Mooney and Claypool where they are downfield receivers which means more time to get into their routes on more plays.
And then the question is, what changes in 2023? I think you expect some degree of regression in terms of dropbacks and also rate of dropbacks that become pass attempts, but in all likelihood, we’re still on the low end here, right? So there’s a bit of a pass for the receiving weapons, to some degree, for the numbers they posted. And also, there’s not a ton of optimism the conditions will be way better for them next year.
Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.29, 0.64 (483)
D'Andre Swift - 0.27, 0.45 (236)
Kalif Raymond - 0.19, 0.48 (322)
Justin Jackson - 0.17, 0.30 (100)
D.J. Chark Jr. - 0.15, 0.45 (341)
Josh Reynolds - 0.15, 0.40 (384)
Brock Wright - 0.14, 0.27 (168)
Jamaal Williams - 0.13, 0.24 (119)
Tom Kennedy - 0.10, 0.26 (125)
Shane Zylstra - 0.10, 0.23 (131)
Oh, hey there, Amon-Ra St. Brown. A full season at 0.29, 0.64 to back up that finish to the 2022 regular season? But injuries limiting you to just 483 routes and leaving plenty of room for full-season statistical improvement? This is the type of profile where a guy who is misunderstood as a slot receiver can be a value; I’ve already used Cooper Kupp as a comp once in this article, but he’s the example again of this slot-plus profile. ARSB may not have the efficiency, but he has every bit of the elite volume-earning potential, and that’s massive. In fact, while Kupp was obviously a bit better in 2021, check this comparison of their 2022s:
Uncanny.
Whether it’s the offense or the player or what, D’Andre Swift has gone 24.8%, 23.8%, and now 26.7% in terms of TPRR in his three seasons, which argues he has a legit skill at earning volume at a high rate for a RB (or at least that the team is designing receptions for him, or something on that axis). He’s a nice early best ball value after the David Montgomery signing, as it feels like a 1-2 punch to me. I’ve been thinking of Swift similar to Austin Ekeler circa Melvin Gordon’s final year in Los Angeles, when Ekeler was something like a seventh-round pick up until Gordon wound up holding out and Ekeler’s price jumped a bit late in August. Gordon would come back during that season, but Ekeler had a great year throughout, both before and after Gordon’s holdout. The Lions look like an offense and a passing game on the rise, and if Swift can just have a healthy season, you could see a strong year for him in that setting as the lead receiving back even without much rushing work.
I don’t have much else here, but for the record, Jameson Williams was 0.22, 0.71 on only 37 routes.