Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC South
Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC South
The Signal and Noise for each AFC South team
We’re bouncing around a bit from my expected order because I wanted to hit on Tennessee next after the DeAndre Hopkins signing.
Reminder that this is where I’m at for each offense right now, in July, and then takes will develop from there. Also, I went over the receiving weapons on a team-by-team basis in my TPRR looks earlier this offseason, and those are still very relevant pieces that I myself circle back on quite often. I’ll reference some of that stuff from time to time, but I’m not going to rehash all of those two posts here. If these posts ever feel a little light on pass-catching data, that’s why.
Lastly, you can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Houston Texans
Key Stat: Nico Collins — 22.4% TPRR at 12.8 aDOT (16.3% at 11.6 as rookie in 2021)
The Texans have a lot of things working against them for 2023, from a first-time defensive coach, to a rookie quarterback, to a general lack of talent. As a result, I projected the Texans for below average play volume and a negative PROE, a combo that — if I’m right — is pretty tough for the overall success of the offense. There’s also just a ton of turnover, so there are a ton of unknowns we’re needing to speculate on. Dameon Pierce and Nico Collins are the only significant returning pieces, but even their 2023 outlooks are influenced by the coaching change, new QB, and new surrounding pass catchers, such that I find myself pretty noncommittal on both.
Pierce certainly had a notable rookie year, racking up volume and looking the part as an elusive back that could find space around the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, he didn’t always do much with that space, and he was ultimately just minorly efficient in metrics like Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected. Pierce also posted just 5.5 yards per reception, a very weak number in the passing game. This is typically a profile to fade, as film grinders tend to overvalue these tackle avoiders that don’t actually have the juice to do much with the space they can create. Still, Pierce is reasonably priced, and the workload does feel pretty secure, even with the addition of veteran Devin Singletary to back him up. Singletary’s always been a pretty inefficient receiver as well, but the Bills still played him on passing downs due to his pass blocking aptitude. That’s a concern for Pierce, who needs to increase his High-Value Touches in 2023 after a TRAP profile in Year 1. The Texans aren’t projected to be good enough on offense to dramatically increase his green zone touches, and he’s not a back that projects to have breakaway rush ability with regularity, so his routes ceiling could be pretty key to any kind of “big hit” outcomes. In best ball, you can make a case for buying touches, particularly after ADP, but in managed leagues, I’d need Pierce to fall outside the WR Window, and he’s currently being drafted at least a round or two prior to where the upside WRs start to disappear.
Singletary is affordably priced for a guy who looks like a clear handcuff (meaning he doesn’t seem to have much competition for the No. 2 job) and could have a standalone role. But his HVT upside also appears capped. He does probably have a bit more big-play potential as a rusher than Pierce, where if he was the full-time guy, you could maybe run into some weeks of 6+ yards per carry. He’s an OK later-round RB that I think can provide stability to particularly thin RB builds, but the upside doesn’t really merit adding him to deeper builds.
Collins took a step forward in terms of target-earning while his aDOT also increased, which really elevated his wTPRR (weighted targets per route run) from his rookie year. The unfortunate thing was his efficiency remaining pretty meh for the second straight year, and his price is really pushing up into a territory where I’d want to be clearer on his potential in an offense that might limit the size of any hit anyway.
Robert Woods will probably run a decent number of routes, but his YPRR fell to 1.14 last year (TPRR of 17.7%), way below his previous dropoffs. To be fair, he played last year while rehabbing from a November 2021 ACL tear, so there’s potential for some bounce back. But 2020 and 2021 had already shown decline from his peak seasons, so I wouldn’t be expecting much in a tough offensive situation. John Metchie is another notable name, and he’s maybe the biggest upside swing here as a complete unknown. He was never a major producer in college, turning in a good final season that was weaker when adjusted for team volume with stats like Dominator Rating and YPTA, although his routes were somewhat limited it seems and his TPRR was strong. We’ve seen that with other Alabama receivers where there is so much talent they have to rotate WR snaps. It didn’t stop Jaylen Waddle from being a star at the next level, although Waddle was much more efficient per target than Metchie. Finally, Tank Dell is a rookie that generated some OTA buzz, but with the aforementioned names and even guys like veteran Noah Brown joining up, what this WR room lacks in exciting profiles it doesn’t necessarily lack in bodies to run routes, which makes it tougher for an undersized Round 3 pick like Dell to see a large enough workload to make a rookie impact. I think my overall concern here is beyond Collins and Woods, there’s likely to be some rotation.
Dalton Schultz is perhaps most interesting at cost among the pass catchers. In my TPRR piece this offseason, I noted he was the kind of free agent I’d expect to take a step back in a new offense, but he’s shown at least solid target-earning for a TE, and the market really devalued him due to his move to Houston. One of the paths to TE upside in fantasy is simply looking at offenses with thin WR rooms where the TE can be one of the top target earners, and Schultz certainly fits as that type of play. It’s a boring bet on routes and targets with limited efficiency, but that type of boring can absolutely play at TE, especially in the double-digit rounds.
The final player to discuss is C.J. Stroud, and I’m pretty intrigued, but typically rookie QBs have uphill paths to being fantasy difference-makers, and Stroud doesn’t offer enough rushing to get really excited. He also has the general offensive concerns I’ve mentioned, plus a lack of talent he’s throwing to, so for him to really hit this year, he’ll have to be a special talent who is elevating everything. That’s possible, but there are a couple concern areas in his profile, and he played behind an elite offensive line so the game might be even more sped up for him specifically, relative to every rookie who experiences that.
Signal: Dameon Pierce — 81.6% TRAP (high percentage of low-value touches relative to receptions and green zone touches, which limited upside and might again in Year 2); Nico Collins — took a Year 2 step forward, but still in a tough offensive situation and hasn’t been efficient enough for me to see significant upside
Noise: Texans — most offensive projections given the amount of turnover both on the roster and coaching staff, and I’m maybe too confident this will be a slower, run-heavier offense
Indianapolis Colts
Key Stat: Shane Steichen — 66.6 plays per game across three seasons as full-time offensive coordinator (league average over that span — 63.5)
The Colts were an interesting team when digging into pace and run/pass splits. My expectation was I’d be pretty out on an offense that has a very mobile rookie quarterback who might have some long-term passing upside but is pretty universally regarded as raw in that area, particularly when it comes to accuracy, which I regard as the most important passing trait for a QB. Of course, Anthony Richardson is a unique athlete, arguably the best we’ve ever seen at the QB position, and so there are ways this offense can operate that focuses on his athleticism and the elite rushing talent of Jonathan Taylor that would fit some of the surprisingly successful offenses of 2022 that utilized mobile QBs to develop strong rushing attacks against the popular light defenses that were more designed to stop the pass. So that was my heavy expectation going in, but then I dug into new head coach Shane Steichen’s history, which is mainly two years as an offensive coordinator with the Eagles and then a lot of time with the Chargers before that, including as the offensive coordinator in 2020 for Justin Herbert’s strong rookie season. And in that time, Steichen’s offenses have played fast — in Herbert’s rookie year, the Chargers led the NFL in play volume, and then with a mobile QB and more run-heavy approach with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, Steichen’s offense finished 14th in plays in 2021 (when Hurts was a full-time starter for the first time) and then fifth in plays last year. I think the set-up with Richardson should still be expected to be slower-paced than those offenses, but it was at least intriguing from the sense that I anticipated projecting the Colts for a bottom-five play volume total, and I instead projected them a lot closer to league average, figuring that even if Richardson struggles, it does seem like they will push the tempo.
Relatedly, I was intrigued in thinking through what happens if Richardson is too raw to be relied upon for 17 games. Gardner Minshew is the backup here, and he’s probably one of the most capable backups in the NFL. He has also been with Steichen in Philadelphia backing up Hurts over the past two seasons, so he’s had plenty of time to learn the offense in a way that Steichen should have confidence he can operate with tempo should Minshew find his way under center. I don’t typically worry about the backup QB situation in depth, but this is one where that play volume upside is pretty clearly supported by Minshew’s presence, in that it’s almost tough to think through outcomes where the Colts really do struggle to operate with pace. The most logical is Richardson stumbles, the offense is bad, and they stick with him through that. But will Steichen stomach that as a first-year head coach looking to make an impact, given he has a backup he can presumably trust? It has me a bit worried Richardson’s leash might be reasonably short this year, although my expectation would be that even if Richardson starts and is eventually benched, he’ll be back under center by the end of the year. It would take a Taylor Heinicke-esque run of good fortune in the W-L column to keep Minshew under center, and this isn’t a roster that he’ll likely lead to a strong record over multiple months, so it’s one of those things where if Minshew does play, it’s probably for a limited number of games before they are out of the playoff picture and decide they need to give Richardson more of a look. I know that sounds hyperspecific, but it’s essentially the shape of the rookie seasons for several recent high-profile QBs — particularly toolsy ones with similar scouting reports to Richardson — including Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, and even Josh Allen (though a few of those may have been injury-related, as I can’t recall the specifics of each).
Richardson is an obviously intriguing bet in the mold of many fellow recent mobile QBs, including Trey Lance last year, who I was fixated on. I did feel a lot better about Lance’s weapons and also his ability to maintain the starting job (if healthy), as Jimmy Garoppolo was rehabbing an injury (and was a trade candidate until restructuring his deal just before the season). Richardson has worse receiving weapons, doesn’t have the Kyle Shanahan offensive design I was excited about elevating Lance’s passing even if his tools were questionable there (largely due to the YAC it creates), and has probably more threat from the backup QB. Still, the projection is similar — I have Richardson running 160 times if he plays 17 games, and I emphasized last year how just projecting Lance to rush in the 150+ attempt range with any reasonable efficiency gave him a great floor-to-ceiling combination. Richardson is going in that same late-single-digit range Lance did last year, and I’ve made the bet on a few best ball teams. That said, it’s not a bet I like the same way I liked Lance last year, and I recommend at least some caution. My biggest concern would be looking at Fields’ 2022, where he rushed for over 1,100 yards but had such weak passing numbers that his overall scoring was strong but not amazing. To be clear, you’d absolutely take Fields’ 2022 from Richardson in 2023, but my point is that’s an upside scenario on the rushing side and even then the passing side is still very relevant. And this is an offense that is fairly easy to project for league low passing numbers, both due to Richardson’s passing profile and the expected rush lean (though, again, tempo could help keep this from bottoming out).
This deep discussion of how the offense could play out is most applicable to Jonathan Taylor. After one injury-riddled season, the market has seemingly forgotten how good he was in 2021, and why he went first overall in a lot of drafts last year despite concern about his receiving. Most of the negative arguments I hear about him this year are what I’d label misapplying the aggregate to the specific, meaning they point out things like how bad offenses helmed by rookie QBs can be, which is a very real stat but is a layer of context to any situation, not the primary note. Taylor was a legit superstar in 2021, and his efficiency and ability to score from distance was a key feature, something that could help offset concerns about TD upside if the offense is indeed lower-scoring. But more notably, Taylor wins regardless of who is under center, and both potential offenses we’re looking at here are improvements on the noodle-armed QB that allowed defenses to load the box last year. If it’s Richardson, Taylor will get the mobile QB bump that has been strong with the Eagles (where Steichen comes from) over the past two years. Hurts had more designed runs than any other QB in the NFL last year, by a lot, which is both a positive for Richardson and Taylor in terms of how it might force teams to scheme. Given Taylor’s still young and in his prime, and profiles as a legitimately elite rusher, I wind up with a ridiculous rushing projection for Taylor in a Richardson offense. But a potential Minshew offense is probably even better, because I’d probably expect more plays due to a pass rate shift, plus Minshew has been known to check down to RBs at a high rate and I’d have Taylor’s receiving upside skyrocketing in that scenario. Taylor is considered alongside players like Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb for his rushing efficiency with receiving limitations, but he’s averaged at least 2.4 receptions per game in all three of his seasons, a number neither Henry or Chubb has hit in any of their 12 combined seasons, so it’s one of those things where the market misses the gradients in the profiles (i.e. Taylor’s receiving is not as limited as the other two). Concern about Taylor’s receiving dipping with a mobile rookie QB is warranted, but Chubb goes ahead of Taylor on average, and he’s a similar play as a bet on efficiency except Taylor’s 2021 season featured both more rush attempts and more receptions than any season of Chubb’s career (i.e. Taylor’s ability as a workhorse, and in his age-24 season, should not be in question, while the 27-year-old Chubb — who wasn’t even a workhorse way back in college like Taylor was — is much more of a projection to suddenly pair the touch volume with his efficiency to truly smash). I talked with Shawn Siegele on a recent Stealing Bananas about how to approach the tier from the late first round through the early second round, and Taylor is squarely in that tier — in half PPR he probably belongs near the front of it, in the 1.08 discussion — but his ADP (17.0 at last check) is such that he sometimes falls so late into the second round that you can pair him with a top-five pick, which feels like a cheat code (the top five feels like a very strong top tier this year, but there’s a real dropoff from the top of the second round to the bottom, so getting something like a Cooper Kupp-Taylor start just shouldn’t be possible). I’m not saying there are no concerns, but the issue with misapplying the aggregate to the specific is we’re always seeking outliers, and JT’s profile and one full season as the starter (2021) are both outlier-ish. The Colts might be dumb and rotate backs too much, or they might bottom out, but I’m willing to bet they decide they don’t have the luxury of keeping him off the field, and the upside to legitimately rush for 2,000 yards or catch 50+ balls with something like 1,500 rush yards, depending on the QB, is extremely appealing.