Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC North
The Signal and Noise for each AFC North team
I have a lot of other posts I want to get to, but I’m pretty one-track minded about this kind of project when I get started on it, so let’s keep plugging away.
For those looking for rankings, I’ve started compiling them, and very soon I’ll release and then go over those with position by position tiers pieces, like my Targets and Fades writeups from last year.
I went over the receiving weapons on a team-by-team basis in my TPRR looks earlier this offseason, and those are still very relevant pieces that I myself circle back on quite often. I’ll reference some of that stuff from time to time, but you can often find more information there on receiving weapons.
And you can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Baltimore Ravens
Key Stat: Mark Andrews — 25% TPRR, 0.64 wTPRR
“Will Baltimore pass more?” has been a talking point basically every offseason of Lamar Jackson’s career, but it does seem more real here in 2023. Since the first year Jackson was a full-time starter, his offensive coordinator has been Greg Roman, whose mobile-QB-friendly rushing offense had previously worked effectively with the likes of Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor before Jackson took it to a new level with his 2019 MVP win. But Roman is gone, and Todd Monken has taken over the offensive coordinator duties, with a history of effective aerial attacks on his resume. All of the talk out of Ravens camp is we’ll see more spread offense, with one analyst (James Jones) quoting Monken as saying they plan to take Jackson back to Louisville, where he won the Heisman trophy. That would presumably mean fewer multi-TE sets, and perhaps less of 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard, while the offense might instead feature more three-WR sets, perhaps even aligned with Mark Andrews standing up in the slot to make it a de facto four-wide look. Spacing out the defense in this way could lead to more scrambles from Jackson, although his big rushing numbers have also always featured really high rates of designed runs, something that could feasibly decline if the offense does in fact look quite a bit different (scrambles are more efficient than designed runs, and it shouldn’t have a massive impact on Jackson’s overall rushing upside).
Neither J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards has more than 100 touches since 2020, but there’s a big difference between a 24-year-old Dobbins (turns 25 in December) coming back from injury and a 28-year-old Edwards. The Gus Bus is a late-round RB option that people seem especially interested in for half-point PPR sites like Underdog, but while he was efficient on limited touches last year, his most fantasy-relevant production comes from when he was 25 and younger. He has also always had a TRAP profile (only 18 career receptions versus 501 rushes), and while that’s less of an issue in half-PRR, it’s not a complete nonissue — the receiving work still rounds out a player’s statistical floor and upside nicely even in that format. Dobbins presumably has the upside to capture the bulk of the receiving work plus I’d argue even more extreme rushing efficiency upside (though both benefit greatly from Jackson being in the offense; to that end, Edwards had a 5.0 YPC last year, while Dobbins was up at 5.7, and at 6.0 as a rookie in 2020). I talked through a talent-based argument around Dobbins and Edwards in a one-off RB piece last October that recently came back around to me on social, and I think there’s a good breakdown of the difference I see between these two in this offense. The expected workload will never be perfect, but there’s a difference between Dobbins’ range of expected points outcomes and also efficiency outcomes, both of which I’d argue are meaningfully better than Edwards’ in a way that makes Dobbins a worthwhile bet at his lofty cost and Edwards probably not even at his much later price tag.
Mark Andrews is still the clear No. 1 in this offense, and would pretty obviously benefit from things spreading out. There’s a bit of a question about whether he can maintain a huge target share with a deeper top three WRs to compete with, but any shift to a more pass-first offense is likely a good one, and Andrews is a consistently efficient TE that belongs near the top of drafts as the biggest threat to Travis Kelce.
Outside Andrews, it’s a bit tough to parse, but Rashod Bateman had a really impressive 120-route sample last year that I wrote about in my TPRR piece earlier this offseason. Not only did Bateman elevate his TPRR from 15.9% as a rookie to 23.3% in Year 2, he did so while his aDOT also jumped from 9.6 yards to 13.2. Then on the efficiency side, if you look at ability to turn air yards into yards (RACR) and adjust for aDOT, Bateman was solidly efficient as a rookie and then even more efficient last year when he posted a 10.2 YPT, so he looks like a guy who can win at multiple depths. Ultimately, his 2.38 YPRR matched CeeDee Lamb’s breakout 2022, to give an idea of what his profile looked like in that small 120-route sample. Whether that scales is the big question, but it’s obviously a positive to see given his prospect profile was also very strong.
One thing I noted in my Ravens’ projection notes was it is very tough to dial in the target shares. I mentioned some uncertainty with Andrews’ share, Bateman could theoretically be a pretty clear No. 1 WR or not be ready, Odell Beckham was still solid in a small 2020 sample before a rough 2021 and missing 2022, and Zay Flowers feels a little like your traditional rookie late-season bloomer (if he hits, which is just to say I probably wouldn’t draft him expecting big production right away). And then behind these guys, Isaiah Likely is maybe the highest-upside No. 2 TE in the NFL after a 21% TPRR as a rookie, Devin Duvernay may still rotate, and Nelson Agholor is still there as a veteran that will probably get some routes and targets, even though I ultimately didn’t have much left to project for him when I was splitting it all out. So even as the offense could pass more, there are a lot more mouths to feed than there have been in the past few years of Ravens offenses.
Signal: J.K. Dobbins — risky talent-based bet that’s nonetheless potentially worthwhile in RB Dead Zone; Gus Edwards — TRAP profile always made him a tough bet but now he’s 28 and has fewer than 100 total touches since he was 25; Ravens — tough to dial in projected target shares with a deeper receiving room than past few years and uncertain profiles, but there’s certainly some upside here; Isaiah Likely — strong rookie season on limited routes, big upside if Mark Andrews were to miss time
Noise: Rashod Bateman — borderline elite 120-route sample in Year 2 is a very positive long-term sign when paired with his strong prospect profile, but coming off a disappointing rookie year leaves a wide range about who he is
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Stat: Bengals — +8.1% PROE (second highest in NFL)
Per the RotoViz Pace Tool, the Bengals easily averaged the most passing plays per 60 minutes in neutral situations last year, while tying for second in plays per 60 in neutral. That means that when games were close, the Bengals were playing fast, and they were throwing with intent. By the end of the year, Cincinnati’s +8.1% PROE was second highest in the NFL, trailing only Kansas City and a couple percentage points out in front of even Buffalo. I’ve written for a couple years about the Bengals’ journey to being a team that throws over expectation at a high rate — essentially that they had to recognize they needed to be in that range to keep up with the Chiefs and Bills — but it’s great to see that journey reach its logical end when so other logical NFL moves don’t always happen.