Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC & NFC North
The Signal and Noise for each AFC and NFC North team
A few weeks ago, I wrote about a fun, new venture focused on sports betting I launched with Dalton Kates, called Stealing Lines. I haven’t been doing a ton over there yet, but Dalton has already posted more than two dozen wagers to consider for seasonal markets like most passing, rushing, and receiving yards, many of which are fun, low-dollar longshots at good prices. As I wrote about in the above linked intro to Lines, Dalton has a knack for picking those out, and we’ve already seen several he’s identified move to shortened odds.
There are even more picks in the Stealing Lines Discord, which you’ll get access to and instructions to join upon signing up for the Stealing Lines substack. (I’ve also been getting more and more questions about the Stealing Signals Discord, which is free and you can join here.) I’ll be getting more involved over at Stealing Lines closer to the season and then definitely once we’re in the swing of things, but I bring this project back up today because in that introductory post, I referenced a 30-day free trial we decided to offer to all Stealing Signals subscribers, and that free trial offer is going to expire this Friday, the 12th, which is 30 days from the opening Sunday of Week 1. In other words, trying out the service for 30 days will give you access to all of our offseason picks as well as most or all of our stuff leading up to Week 1.
Here’s the link to that offer. I want to note that one user redeemed the offer then immediately canceled so as not to get auto-billed after the 30 days, and the system shut off the free trial at that date rather than granting the full 30 days. I didn’t really like that, but I don’t think I can change that setting, or if I can, I can’t figure it out. So I just want to mention it up front (and to that person, I couldn’t find your message to follow up with you after looking into it, so hopefully this reaches you, and if it does, hit me up again so I can get you 30 days comped). To everyone else, be aware of that quirk before doing the 30-day trial, if you don’t intend to subscribe after the 30 days.
Let’s get to the AFC and NFC North divisions. We’ve already covered:
The AFC and NFC East divisions, with thoughts on A.J. Brown, how to play the Bills, and why the Giants might be NYC’s more exciting team than the youthful Jets.
The AFC and NFC West divisions, with thoughts on the super important Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos offenses, as well as hype for Trey Lance and Kyler Murray, and the differing impacts on their skill guys.
You can also check out my podcast discussions with Michael Leone on the Establish The Edge feed, where we discussed our projections for every team over eight episodes.
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Stat: Team — 64.1 plays, +2.2 PROE from Week 5 through playoffs (17 games)
The Bengals are a super exciting team and I want to dig into some annoyingly nuanced stuff to emphasize that. Their full-season numbers include a first month where Joe Burrow was still working back from a knee injury. It can be said that splitting out data you don’t want to use to push a narrative is cherry-picking, but this was something we expected in advance. At this time last year, I wrote in this exact Offseason Stealing Signals post, “Maybe he’s not 100% for Week 1, whether physically or mentally, but the way I’d say it is he’s still very likely to play at this stage, and that by about Week 4 he’ll have had enough real game reps that we probably won’t even be talking about it.” I didn’t have this exactly right, but the implication Cincinnati might start slow is there. Starting in Week 1, Cincinnati had Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) figures of -13.3 percentage points, -4.5, -9.7, and then -0.6 in Burrow’s first 300-yard game Week 4. In Week 5, they had their first positive PROE. Splits can be misleading, but if we expected Cincinnati to play conservatively, and we see that to an extreme degree in the data, I have no issue calling those extended preseason games and removing them. The relevance is for the regular season last year, Cincinnati ran a below-average 61.9 plays with a +0.8 PROE, and you’ll hear related data cited (e.g. “they didn’t play fast,” “they weren’t very pass-heavy,” etc.). But if we start Week 5 and tack on their four playoff games — so essentially look at their final 17 games played — they averaged an above-average 64.1 plays with a +2.2 PROE. That’s a substantial difference in potential pass volume, and it shows some real aggressiveness from Zac Taylor despite Burrow being sacked a league-high 51 times. That’s relevant because Cincinnati made it a point to drastically improve their offensive line this offseason. It should maybe be the default expectation that the Bengals will be far more aggressive in 2022.
Another reason I think we might see more passing this year is Burrow is incredibly accurate. He was the only qualified quarterback in the NFL last year to complete over 70% of his passes. Some of that is tied to the high rate of sacks — a lack of throwaways and riskier attempts will keep your completion percentage high — but I find it notable all three of his running backs had extremely strong catch rates on at least 17 targets.
Is Joe Burrow the new Drew Brees in terms of absurdly catchable RB passes? Mixon, Perine, Evans all had catch rates of 87%+ last year (RB avg is ~75% so ~half the incompletions we might expect). Combined to catch 84 of 96 targets. CEH's receiving at LSU another data point.Running back dumpoffs might seem simple enough, but there’s still some timing and accuracy required, and there are some QBs who are just a lot better at it, and it shows in the data. Burrow’s college RB flashing huge receiving numbers only to disappoint as a pass-catcher in the NFL adds to this idea. The Saints utilized Brees’ preternatural short-passing ability as an extended running game for years. I’m not sure that will happen in Cincinnati, at least not in 2022, but it’s there for them should they need it. Anyway, this is probably a good sign for Joe Mixon on the receiving side, although I’m not sure they will really give him the routes necessary to make good on it; last year, Samaje Perine and Chris Evans combined for the exact same number of targets and receptions as Mixon had himself, which is to say Mixon gave up 50% of the RB receiving. Evans is a fun dart throw late in drafts as he has a pass-catching profile and flashed the most passing-game explosiveness of the backs in his small sample last year, but Perine had a lot more work even in the passing game last yaer, and if Mixon misses time, I expect Perine to get the bulk of the carries. Evans is more a play in the passing-down back mold to me.
To flesh out the Mixon analysis a bit more, he had a great year last year, but his rushing numbers really benefited from three games where he had between 28 and 30 carries, while he didn’t have more than 20 in any other game. The three really high volume games were his only 100-yard rushing games of the year, his YPC-type efficiency wasn’t great overall, and he’s now 26. After never scoring more than 10 touchdowns in a season, the offensive boost in 2021 helped him to a 16-TD year, which a decent chunk of might carry over. He’s a lead back on a good offense but he feels a bit more like a small win player than a potential league-winner. All RBs are risky propositions, and Mixon is a good example of probably not having Legendary Upside.
Tee Higgins only played 14 games last year, but was incredible, and should be viewed not as a No. 2 but a burgeoning star in his own right. Higgins’ TPRR and wTPRR were actually a bit better than Chase’s in the regular season, though Chase saw more volume in the postseason. Higgins also get overshadowed a bit by Chase’s ridiculous efficiency, because Higgins was himself very efficient. The biggest gap was in touchdowns, where you could see Higgins shrinking the gap between him and Chase in future seasons. If either Chase or Higgins were to miss time, the other would look like an elite option, but Tyler Boyd would also see a strong projection boost. Boyd is a solid pick as a playable WR whose volume got squeezed out a little by the two superstars last year, but who is still a good bet for 800 yards and a handful of touchdowns in an offense that uses a lot of 11 personnel and likes to keep the same three WRs on the field. The contingent value is the real argument in his favor, though, because he’s shown he’s a good player who could step up if needed for several years now.
Hayden Hurst appears likely to be the lead TE, and we saw with C.J. Uzomah last year that the routes are fairly consistent for the TE in this offense, and there will probably be some splash weeks as defenses just forget about him sometimes, but there’s not really much to chase outside tacking Hurst onto the back end of Bengals’ best ball stacks.
Signal: Team — very slow first month due to Joe Burrow’s rehab, much more favorable passing numbers when removing that and including the playoffs; Tee Higgins — extremely good WR in his own right, high floor with massive upside if Chase were to miss time
Noise: Ja’Marr Chase — “only” 128 targets; Joe Mixon — RB4 season last year (18.1 points per game is fine, but it would have been no better than RB7 in any season from 2018-2020, and there doesn’t appear to be easy paths to Legendary Upside)
Baltimore Ravens
Key Stat: Team — 62.9% called pass rate (sub-50% in both 2019 and 2020), 69.7 plays per game (most in NFL by 1.9 per game)
Everything about the Ravens revolves around what we expect after the massive shift in team-level stats in 2021. Let’s start with the plays per game, 69.7, which were easily the most in the NFL. That’s likely to regress, though they’ve been pretty fast-paced before and should be expected to be an up-tempo offense. Still, they can lose five plays per game and still be solidly above average, and that’s a lot. Then there’s the pass rate. Baltimore shot up from called pass rates of 47.6% in 2019 and 49.1% in 2020 — both at least -7.5 in PROE — to 62.9% in 2022. Interestingly, because they played so many frenetic games, that was still a slight negative in PROE at -0.6. (To reconcile that data, note their expected pass rate was 55.1% in their 14-win 2019, 59.4% in their 11-win 2020, and 63.5% in their 8-win 2021, where they lost their final six games, five by a field goal or less.) Their Vegas win total for 2022 sits at 9.5, which would represent an expected pass rate around 60%, so unless they are actually more pass-heavy relative to expectation this year — and their PROE gets to the positive side — they are likely to lose some percentage points of called pass rate from that 62.9% in 2021. That’s a really tough case to make when considering the RB injuries last year, as well as their offseason moves that included trading away their No. 1 WR, not really replacing him, and drafting two more TEs. But now that we’ve established a likely drop in called pass rate, the question from there becomes, how much? Do they keep these huge gains in PROE where they were close to average, and wind up with a called pass rate somewhere in the 55%-60% range, which the market seems to be assuming? That’s a wide range, but the middle of it would put them in a below-average bucket for pass volume but not crazy low. Or do they get back to their 2019 and 2020 trends where they are something like eight percentage points below expectation and are down around a 50% called pass rate (or even below it, like they were in both 2019 and 2020)? That’s where you get some real concern about their receiving weapons.
To wrap all the data in the last bullet point up, Baltimore averaged 43.8 called pass plays per game last year. In 2019 and 2020, they were at 31.6 and 30.5. Lamar Jackson’s high scramble and sack rates take a lot of pass attempts away from those numbers of called pass plays, and we’re talking 35.9 pass attempts per game last year vs. 27.5 and 25.4 the two years prior. That’s a lot of lost targets. I’m projecting them at 64.8 plays per game (1.5 higher than last year’s league average, and 0.5 higher than Baltimore’s average across 2019 and 2020) and a 58% pass rate (a lot closer to last year’s number than 2019 and 2020) and I have them at 31.2 pass attempts per game, which is enough to leave some upside in the passing game but is still quite a bit of a dropoff from 2021.