Taking a shot at winning potential also livens up what is after all a game for fun. In a 12 team standard league with 2 starting WRs, this week I traded Kincaid and Kupp for Bowers. Giving up Kupp was a lot, but I have Nabers and London and B Thomas on the bench. If Nabers (again) or London gets hurt, giving up Kupp is going to hurt. My team is 3-3 but second in league points so I am still thinking championship over making the playoffs. Taking risk and going for it by getting Bowers made that trade day a more fun day.
Love the article! Makes me so upset of my two massive mistakes last week: Didn’t pick up Vidal on Friday hanging on hope of an Andrews comeback, and 2 minutes before the games Tucker was a free pick up and I went with Luepke just because I heard he was getting more usage in Matt Harmon’s podcast 🥲
Great stuff Ben, as usual. I was in the market for a stash RB during the waivers run this past week. I was one of only 2 people in my 14-team league to place a claim on Tucker. Unfortunately, I didn't get him, Vidal, or Ray Davis (Same situation, was one of 2 people to place claims on each of these). I ended with a decent consolation prize, though, and was able to get Corum.
In FFPC, I have Bucky on 63% of my teams. Tucker was available in all of them and I bidded aggressively where I had money left and landed him in 60%. They are paired on a ton of teams, so I feel like I have the two most talented RBs on the Bucs. One or both could smash down the stretch, and I have more security with my Bucky shares on an offense that is producing. I kind of thought "industry" people were missing the boat on Tucker this week by not having a higher rec than 5-10%. I won a lot of my bids by hundreds, which is fine by me, though I know it could play out poorly. As you've talked about with Shawn on SB, when you really want to get a guy, just bid enough that you feel you'll likely land him. The way I built my teams, I'm pretty deep at WR and TE (Bowers) and have Daniels on half my teams. What exactly am I waiting to use my FAB on? I need possible impact guys at RB and it's week 7. Should I be saving it for the next guy that goes for 200 and 2 in what appears to be an open backfield? How often do those opportunities arise? Better to make some sort of bet than no bet at all. Sure you sat back and didn't overpay (in hindsight) on a player...but you also ended up with $700 going into the final week to desperately throw at someone.
Yeah I mean in my two home leagues, I bid $400 in one where I had over $900 because I've been losing to aggressive bids most weeks, in a frothy bidding environment, and I bid $200 in one where I had like $450 left and didn't need him as much. Got him unopposed in both, and legit didn't even bug me that I burnt that budget. Is what it is; we can't know what everyone else will do.
that's awesome! hopefully you did read the earlier favorable notes in stealing signals this week (i did have him as the second biggest signal behind only vidal on tuesday!)
Tracy has a similar thing to Tucker with a possibly meaningfully better shot of hitting where Week 7 gives us some more info, so I'd want to stick there.
Having multiple pieces of TB and also MIA is not the way I'd do it if you need stuff to hit. I like it with TB right now because there's uncertainty, but especially if I'm doing it with TB, I would not also want to be doing it with MIA when Achane isn't fragile and is clearly the top dog (and he's not a dude you have obviously). You're minimizing your pathways. Hope you played Javonte last night!
You talked about dropping Wicks. How I see it Wicks is still the same bet as a talented player who generally performs when he gets on the field. Isn’t he good example of a good bet to make on upside player instead of trying to predict playing time or pathways to that upside?
I think he's still that bet but with a worse shot at a payoff now that his sample is expanding and there hasn't been great production this year. He only ran 312 routes last year through the playoffs, and is already at 114 not very good routes this year. One way to put it is his YPRR was 1.94 last year, but it's 1.17 this year, and you're talking about a really dragging down his career number. But the other thing is I couldn't understand why he didn't play more, and now I think I do, and I think the 114-route sample is probably more representative than it seems just because we also have info from the team that they weren't really buying it. I'm not all the way out on Wicks, but he's one I'm recalibrating negatively on, for sure.
Love this stuff, Ben!!!! Your weekly insights to individual games are indispensable, but these kinds of deep process related pieces are rewiring my brain in the best possible way.
I have lots of Bucky and Kimani and was stoked to watch them this weekend. I initially was a pass on Tucker, without watching any of the footage, but your argument for making a bet on that kind of upside has me convinced.
Where do you slot Jaylen Wright in with the handcuff RBs like Corum/Vidal etc? Above, below, about the same? Feels to me like he maybe has two paths to contingent upside with Mostert and Achane?
Can’t say it enough, Gretch is the best writer is this space and this article encapsulates why.
Appreciate you man!
Made the newsletter with my Mostert tweet. 2nd Stealing Signals appearance. Hang the banner.
Taking a shot at winning potential also livens up what is after all a game for fun. In a 12 team standard league with 2 starting WRs, this week I traded Kincaid and Kupp for Bowers. Giving up Kupp was a lot, but I have Nabers and London and B Thomas on the bench. If Nabers (again) or London gets hurt, giving up Kupp is going to hurt. My team is 3-3 but second in league points so I am still thinking championship over making the playoffs. Taking risk and going for it by getting Bowers made that trade day a more fun day.
Love the article! Makes me so upset of my two massive mistakes last week: Didn’t pick up Vidal on Friday hanging on hope of an Andrews comeback, and 2 minutes before the games Tucker was a free pick up and I went with Luepke just because I heard he was getting more usage in Matt Harmon’s podcast 🥲
Great stuff Ben, as usual. I was in the market for a stash RB during the waivers run this past week. I was one of only 2 people in my 14-team league to place a claim on Tucker. Unfortunately, I didn't get him, Vidal, or Ray Davis (Same situation, was one of 2 people to place claims on each of these). I ended with a decent consolation prize, though, and was able to get Corum.
Interesting that those other guys had so few claims, too.
In FFPC, I have Bucky on 63% of my teams. Tucker was available in all of them and I bidded aggressively where I had money left and landed him in 60%. They are paired on a ton of teams, so I feel like I have the two most talented RBs on the Bucs. One or both could smash down the stretch, and I have more security with my Bucky shares on an offense that is producing. I kind of thought "industry" people were missing the boat on Tucker this week by not having a higher rec than 5-10%. I won a lot of my bids by hundreds, which is fine by me, though I know it could play out poorly. As you've talked about with Shawn on SB, when you really want to get a guy, just bid enough that you feel you'll likely land him. The way I built my teams, I'm pretty deep at WR and TE (Bowers) and have Daniels on half my teams. What exactly am I waiting to use my FAB on? I need possible impact guys at RB and it's week 7. Should I be saving it for the next guy that goes for 200 and 2 in what appears to be an open backfield? How often do those opportunities arise? Better to make some sort of bet than no bet at all. Sure you sat back and didn't overpay (in hindsight) on a player...but you also ended up with $700 going into the final week to desperately throw at someone.
Yeah I mean in my two home leagues, I bid $400 in one where I had over $900 because I've been losing to aggressive bids most weeks, in a frothy bidding environment, and I bid $200 in one where I had like $450 left and didn't need him as much. Got him unopposed in both, and legit didn't even bug me that I burnt that budget. Is what it is; we can't know what everyone else will do.
Hey that’s me
as someone who's subscribed a couple of years, I'm happy to say i picked up tucker on wed waivers before reading your viewpoint.
best,
that's awesome! hopefully you did read the earlier favorable notes in stealing signals this week (i did have him as the second biggest signal behind only vidal on tuesday!)
Picked up Ray Davis off free agency, his manager dropped him, I guess spooked by the injury. Happy days!
Drop Tracy for Tucker?
Tracy has a similar thing to Tucker with a possibly meaningfully better shot of hitting where Week 7 gives us some more info, so I'd want to stick there.
No you shouldn’t do that. I think I can confidently say Ben would agree with me
Man, I need one of these stashes to hit.
I've got Javonte, Bucky, Mostert, Allgier, Jaylen Wright and Tucker in the rb room.
Having multiple pieces of TB and also MIA is not the way I'd do it if you need stuff to hit. I like it with TB right now because there's uncertainty, but especially if I'm doing it with TB, I would not also want to be doing it with MIA when Achane isn't fragile and is clearly the top dog (and he's not a dude you have obviously). You're minimizing your pathways. Hope you played Javonte last night!
You talked about dropping Wicks. How I see it Wicks is still the same bet as a talented player who generally performs when he gets on the field. Isn’t he good example of a good bet to make on upside player instead of trying to predict playing time or pathways to that upside?
I think he's still that bet but with a worse shot at a payoff now that his sample is expanding and there hasn't been great production this year. He only ran 312 routes last year through the playoffs, and is already at 114 not very good routes this year. One way to put it is his YPRR was 1.94 last year, but it's 1.17 this year, and you're talking about a really dragging down his career number. But the other thing is I couldn't understand why he didn't play more, and now I think I do, and I think the 114-route sample is probably more representative than it seems just because we also have info from the team that they weren't really buying it. I'm not all the way out on Wicks, but he's one I'm recalibrating negatively on, for sure.
Love this stuff, Ben!!!! Your weekly insights to individual games are indispensable, but these kinds of deep process related pieces are rewiring my brain in the best possible way.
I have lots of Bucky and Kimani and was stoked to watch them this weekend. I initially was a pass on Tucker, without watching any of the footage, but your argument for making a bet on that kind of upside has me convinced.
Would be too late for Tucker but I’m prob dropping Wicks this weekend if he’s not playing to try other RB stashes instead (Benson, etc)
Where do you slot Jaylen Wright in with the handcuff RBs like Corum/Vidal etc? Above, below, about the same? Feels to me like he maybe has two paths to contingent upside with Mostert and Achane?
I have Wright probably below those guys right now. Not far below, but would prefer the other two.