With the three pretty high profile RB’s (Akers, Etienne, Dobbins) going down before the season starts I’m beginning to consider Wr, Te with my first few picks even if I’m in a shallow ten team standard league…am I over reacting. These events seem to point to ZeroRb as the accepted strategy in all formats.
Ben thank you so much for your wonderful work here as well as on the podcast. For the first time I tried zero or hero RB strategy in our family 12 team auction PPR draft and ended up with Diggs Jefferson Waller McLaurin TeeHiggins Sutton Elijah more Rondale Moore & Ertz(last pick) My only running backs are swift AJ Dylan Pollard and Singleterry. I have J Hurts and Fields as we only start one quarterback one tied in and we can start to running backs and six wide receivers! Or 3+5 or 4+4. we only have six bench as well. I think I have a very dominant receiving corps but for a guy who normally hordes stud running backs I’m just a little nervous. I have one empty spot to pick up tomorrow wondering what my best target should be? Ty’son Williams justice hill Tony Jones Terrace, Marshall Devontae Booker? I had the hardest time passing on Alvin Kamara for $62 but My top 2 receivers went for about $95 ($250 budget) Waller & McLaurin for about $70 Hopefully this team will allow me to have a very strong foundation to repeat as champ using this completely different strategy which I know freaked out my league mates
Thanks I did grab Ty'son. However I see Ty Johnson is on ww and really feel I should grab him as he is in an ambiguous backfield and seem to have some nice upside especially in PPR. Considering dropping Zack Ertz since I have Waller. I THINK this is the proper way to implement some sort of a zero/hero RB build? I would love your thoughts on adding Ty Johnson and dropping either Ertz or Ty'son?
Hey Ben - I heard your latest pod and you came so close to answering my question, but didn’t quite close it. I’m planning to go Hurts for QB in the 7th-9th (glad to hear you liked him) and focus on Waller and WR at the top. Do you think I need a second QB in case he ends up tanking? If so, like a Fields or Fitz type? Thanks man.
Sorry for the delay here but it would totally depend on league depth whether you need to stash a QB2. 18+ rounds maybe, 16ish rounds probably not bc you could prob just add a Fitz type and I'd want those bench spots for other positions.
Ha, I'd been pretty low on him so that wasn't a mistake, but I've since moved him up a bit. I really don't think he's going to suddenly be more than a rotational deep threat.
HI Ben, I think your analysis makes a lot of sense (though personally I believe Edwards gets enough goal-line work to get into the low RB2 range). I would disagree a bit on Hill, though. While he has been a decent RB3 for the team, he has never done much with the opportunities as an RB. His real value for the Ravens has been as a core special teams guy, and they really like him in that role. Unless Williams was just a preseason flash-in-the-pan (certainly a possibility, though he has looked good), Hill is likely staying in that RB3 role...having a series or two each game, but not much else as a rusher. And I would predict that the Ravens bring Ingram back if he is cut by the Texans. He knows the offense, is a locker room leader, could provide depth, and will be signable for vet minimum.
Yeah it's fair to have takes like these, but my analysis here is largely built off not trying to predict outcomes too specifically because there's so much we don't know.
I see your point, and agree one should have some humility in this because we aren't inside the RB room. We almost certainly won't get it right But at what point, or to what extent, do you weigh past performance, offensive scheme, etc to restrict that potential range of outcomes in your analysis? This is a more general question, but using Hill and the Ravens as an example...Hill has never lived up to the initial hype as being a good pass-catching back, and Greg Roman just does not have many passes to the RB as part of his offense. That could change, but Roman's history would suggest that is not particularly likely. So, why is Hill stepping up to fill that part of the RB role that Edwards hasn't shown yet within the range of possible outcomes? And similarly, just because Edwards hasn't done that before, why might he not going forward? And how do you weigh those possibilities in the context of the players' histories?
I mean those are all fair questions but I did try to address that stuff in the post. For Hill specifically, it's a skill set thing, and then for me I guess I'm valuing that they've kept him around this long — especially through last year after they made the draft day bet on Dobbins and still had Ingram under contract, and then let Ingram go and didn't really add to the position this offseason — as something positive.
It's not that hard to have a pro-Hill stance if you look at it from his profile. Very good college producer, great speed/athleticism, was a reasonably young rookie who turned 22 in November of his first season, got boxed out a bit last year but they kept him around, is being ignored now because of injury... There's a ton of reading tea leaves regardless but the dude is 23 right now and all I'm really saying is the book might not be written on him yet just because we as a fantasy football community were super high on him early, probably too early. He has a much, much better profile than Williams, for example. Williams was a UDFA practice squad guy in Year 1, now in Year 2. Hill got 4th round capital — not amazing, but not nothing — and they used him his rookie year, even if it was far less than we wanted for FF that year.
I'm not saying Hill is definitely not all the things you're saying. But to your question about how to weigh all this stuff in — Edwards needs those things to happen at his cost. So it's just all the factors and then cost as well. But I didn't even say in the post I'm heavily targeting Hill — I have him RB51 and just think there's more to his whole profile, and it's all of it that I'm considering, that makes him the bet here from a cost perspective, if there is one.
Ben - first off, thank you for ALL you're doing on the site, as well as on the podcast. I've learned so much about not just who to draft, but more importantly, *how* to think — the different variables, situational thinking, all of it! 🙏
Writing with a two part question! I'm in a .5 league with 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex, no TE Premium, so I've really soaked up all the anti-fragility content... but our league has a wrinkle:
3 bench spots. Yep, just 3!
I've always wanted to ask but it *feels* like when you talk about anti-fragility, there's an expectation that the bench has some pine to it — like at least 5-6 deep to make the zeroRB plan really work, bc then you can stash folks for injury/situational upside. But can zeroRB work in a short bench league? Should it?
Given the volatility of injuries and COVID, I find it may be hard to stash RB upside plays that I've starred on my auction sheet with just 3 spots —
1) Curious how you'd approach such a small bench size league with an anti-fragile mindset? From a roster construction standpoint, do we still stash a bunch of high-upside, breakout players on benc hand risk losing one if you have a COVID+ or injury week? Knowing we've got nobody to immediately plug-and-play in case of injuries on the bench? And would you emphasize depth at multiple positions or emphasize WR/RB?
2) Does such a small bench size impact your auction strategy? Knowing there will be depth on the waiver wire all season, does it make sense to go for tier 1 guys more so?
3) Oh and one more question — I've got James Robinson (basically free) or Tee Higgins (something like $15) as a keeper option ($200 league). Was leaning Tee all season but wanted to see if you thought maybe getting a "free" RB2 is actually more beneficial given 3-person bench? I hate even typing that question as I suspect I know your answer 😅
Thx as always for all you do - appreciate your taking the time to share your thoughts!
Really late on this reply but still think it's very interesting. I would have kept Higgins. And my strategy in this format would have been to lean into strong buys for my starting lineup more, recognizing there will be replaceable players on the waiver wire at every position. There's almost zero need to have a WR stash in this league; I'd have targeted four strong ones that go in the first 8ish rounds of normal drafts. I'd use my bench to roster RB bets because those are the ones where value can change quickly and they would immediately become the clear most desirable waiver options.
Ben…sounds like depending on the format you try to have a certain number of players at each position: how would you structure a standard (Qb) (2) Rb, (2) Wr, Te, Flex and seven bench spots.
On this roster I have Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Najee, CeeDee, DJ Moore, Tee and Kittle as my starters. Bench is Sony, Dillon, Pollard, Gallup, Elijah Moore, Burrow and Tonyan.
My structure was (5) Rb’s, (5) Wr’s and a backup Qb and Te (little concerned about Covid taking out a starter so I wanted a backup). My gut is telling me that you would suggest dropping Tonyan and possibly Elijah and Gallup and pick up three high upside Rb’s due to my standard league.
Ben, I don’t disagree with your take on Edwards, but I’m having trouble understanding is how he’s that much different than Dobbins, who also didn’t have a track record of catching passes, yet people have been grabbing him near the 3/4 turn. I can’t recall where you had Dobbins ranked before his injury. Did you see him having a lot greater upside than Edwards does now? Thanks.
I was down on Dobbins and not drafting him due to those concerns (something I mentioned in my big draft strategy writeup that hit on the RB Dead Zone stuff), but there was also more long view stuff for Dobbins — really strong profile, draft capital, how he took over the backfield last year — that he could be a real top-flight RB. We don't want to get too caught up on projecting role and usage and need to keep in mind stuff like this.
I would have probably taken Dobbins in the late 4th or 5th in some leagues because there were scenarios where he was just a superstar this year, in a way that could have created more receiving and more overall ceiling than we could have foreseen going into the year. All of that is just different for Edwards, though he's certainly shown to be a good player in his own right.
With the three pretty high profile RB’s (Akers, Etienne, Dobbins) going down before the season starts I’m beginning to consider Wr, Te with my first few picks even if I’m in a shallow ten team standard league…am I over reacting. These events seem to point to ZeroRb as the accepted strategy in all formats.
Zero RB is still quite a bit tougher in standard but not impossible.
Forgot to mention this is a re-draft league and Patterson (WAS) is also on waiver wire.
Ben thank you so much for your wonderful work here as well as on the podcast. For the first time I tried zero or hero RB strategy in our family 12 team auction PPR draft and ended up with Diggs Jefferson Waller McLaurin TeeHiggins Sutton Elijah more Rondale Moore & Ertz(last pick) My only running backs are swift AJ Dylan Pollard and Singleterry. I have J Hurts and Fields as we only start one quarterback one tied in and we can start to running backs and six wide receivers! Or 3+5 or 4+4. we only have six bench as well. I think I have a very dominant receiving corps but for a guy who normally hordes stud running backs I’m just a little nervous. I have one empty spot to pick up tomorrow wondering what my best target should be? Ty’son Williams justice hill Tony Jones Terrace, Marshall Devontae Booker? I had the hardest time passing on Alvin Kamara for $62 but My top 2 receivers went for about $95 ($250 budget) Waller & McLaurin for about $70 Hopefully this team will allow me to have a very strong foundation to repeat as champ using this completely different strategy which I know freaked out my league mates
Sorry I'm so late on this, but I think Ty'Son would have been my choice. Love the team!
Thanks I did grab Ty'son. However I see Ty Johnson is on ww and really feel I should grab him as he is in an ambiguous backfield and seem to have some nice upside especially in PPR. Considering dropping Zack Ertz since I have Waller. I THINK this is the proper way to implement some sort of a zero/hero RB build? I would love your thoughts on adding Ty Johnson and dropping either Ertz or Ty'son?
Hey Ben - I heard your latest pod and you came so close to answering my question, but didn’t quite close it. I’m planning to go Hurts for QB in the 7th-9th (glad to hear you liked him) and focus on Waller and WR at the top. Do you think I need a second QB in case he ends up tanking? If so, like a Fields or Fitz type? Thanks man.
Sorry for the delay here but it would totally depend on league depth whether you need to stash a QB2. 18+ rounds maybe, 16ish rounds probably not bc you could prob just add a Fitz type and I'd want those bench spots for other positions.
Just a heads up MVS is missing from your ranks
Ha, I'd been pretty low on him so that wasn't a mistake, but I've since moved him up a bit. I really don't think he's going to suddenly be more than a rotational deep threat.
HI Ben, I think your analysis makes a lot of sense (though personally I believe Edwards gets enough goal-line work to get into the low RB2 range). I would disagree a bit on Hill, though. While he has been a decent RB3 for the team, he has never done much with the opportunities as an RB. His real value for the Ravens has been as a core special teams guy, and they really like him in that role. Unless Williams was just a preseason flash-in-the-pan (certainly a possibility, though he has looked good), Hill is likely staying in that RB3 role...having a series or two each game, but not much else as a rusher. And I would predict that the Ravens bring Ingram back if he is cut by the Texans. He knows the offense, is a locker room leader, could provide depth, and will be signable for vet minimum.
Yeah it's fair to have takes like these, but my analysis here is largely built off not trying to predict outcomes too specifically because there's so much we don't know.
I see your point, and agree one should have some humility in this because we aren't inside the RB room. We almost certainly won't get it right But at what point, or to what extent, do you weigh past performance, offensive scheme, etc to restrict that potential range of outcomes in your analysis? This is a more general question, but using Hill and the Ravens as an example...Hill has never lived up to the initial hype as being a good pass-catching back, and Greg Roman just does not have many passes to the RB as part of his offense. That could change, but Roman's history would suggest that is not particularly likely. So, why is Hill stepping up to fill that part of the RB role that Edwards hasn't shown yet within the range of possible outcomes? And similarly, just because Edwards hasn't done that before, why might he not going forward? And how do you weigh those possibilities in the context of the players' histories?
I mean those are all fair questions but I did try to address that stuff in the post. For Hill specifically, it's a skill set thing, and then for me I guess I'm valuing that they've kept him around this long — especially through last year after they made the draft day bet on Dobbins and still had Ingram under contract, and then let Ingram go and didn't really add to the position this offseason — as something positive.
It's not that hard to have a pro-Hill stance if you look at it from his profile. Very good college producer, great speed/athleticism, was a reasonably young rookie who turned 22 in November of his first season, got boxed out a bit last year but they kept him around, is being ignored now because of injury... There's a ton of reading tea leaves regardless but the dude is 23 right now and all I'm really saying is the book might not be written on him yet just because we as a fantasy football community were super high on him early, probably too early. He has a much, much better profile than Williams, for example. Williams was a UDFA practice squad guy in Year 1, now in Year 2. Hill got 4th round capital — not amazing, but not nothing — and they used him his rookie year, even if it was far less than we wanted for FF that year.
I'm not saying Hill is definitely not all the things you're saying. But to your question about how to weigh all this stuff in — Edwards needs those things to happen at his cost. So it's just all the factors and then cost as well. But I didn't even say in the post I'm heavily targeting Hill — I have him RB51 and just think there's more to his whole profile, and it's all of it that I'm considering, that makes him the bet here from a cost perspective, if there is one.
Makes sense. Thanks!
Ben - first off, thank you for ALL you're doing on the site, as well as on the podcast. I've learned so much about not just who to draft, but more importantly, *how* to think — the different variables, situational thinking, all of it! 🙏
Writing with a two part question! I'm in a .5 league with 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex, no TE Premium, so I've really soaked up all the anti-fragility content... but our league has a wrinkle:
3 bench spots. Yep, just 3!
I've always wanted to ask but it *feels* like when you talk about anti-fragility, there's an expectation that the bench has some pine to it — like at least 5-6 deep to make the zeroRB plan really work, bc then you can stash folks for injury/situational upside. But can zeroRB work in a short bench league? Should it?
Given the volatility of injuries and COVID, I find it may be hard to stash RB upside plays that I've starred on my auction sheet with just 3 spots —
1) Curious how you'd approach such a small bench size league with an anti-fragile mindset? From a roster construction standpoint, do we still stash a bunch of high-upside, breakout players on benc hand risk losing one if you have a COVID+ or injury week? Knowing we've got nobody to immediately plug-and-play in case of injuries on the bench? And would you emphasize depth at multiple positions or emphasize WR/RB?
2) Does such a small bench size impact your auction strategy? Knowing there will be depth on the waiver wire all season, does it make sense to go for tier 1 guys more so?
3) Oh and one more question — I've got James Robinson (basically free) or Tee Higgins (something like $15) as a keeper option ($200 league). Was leaning Tee all season but wanted to see if you thought maybe getting a "free" RB2 is actually more beneficial given 3-person bench? I hate even typing that question as I suspect I know your answer 😅
Thx as always for all you do - appreciate your taking the time to share your thoughts!
Really late on this reply but still think it's very interesting. I would have kept Higgins. And my strategy in this format would have been to lean into strong buys for my starting lineup more, recognizing there will be replaceable players on the waiver wire at every position. There's almost zero need to have a WR stash in this league; I'd have targeted four strong ones that go in the first 8ish rounds of normal drafts. I'd use my bench to roster RB bets because those are the ones where value can change quickly and they would immediately become the clear most desirable waiver options.
Really grateful for this reply - wasn’t too late at all and really appreciated it. 👍
Ben…sounds like depending on the format you try to have a certain number of players at each position: how would you structure a standard (Qb) (2) Rb, (2) Wr, Te, Flex and seven bench spots.
On this roster I have Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Najee, CeeDee, DJ Moore, Tee and Kittle as my starters. Bench is Sony, Dillon, Pollard, Gallup, Elijah Moore, Burrow and Tonyan.
My structure was (5) Rb’s, (5) Wr’s and a backup Qb and Te (little concerned about Covid taking out a starter so I wanted a backup). My gut is telling me that you would suggest dropping Tonyan and possibly Elijah and Gallup and pick up three high upside Rb’s due to my standard league.
Ben, I don’t disagree with your take on Edwards, but I’m having trouble understanding is how he’s that much different than Dobbins, who also didn’t have a track record of catching passes, yet people have been grabbing him near the 3/4 turn. I can’t recall where you had Dobbins ranked before his injury. Did you see him having a lot greater upside than Edwards does now? Thanks.
I was down on Dobbins and not drafting him due to those concerns (something I mentioned in my big draft strategy writeup that hit on the RB Dead Zone stuff), but there was also more long view stuff for Dobbins — really strong profile, draft capital, how he took over the backfield last year — that he could be a real top-flight RB. We don't want to get too caught up on projecting role and usage and need to keep in mind stuff like this.
I would have probably taken Dobbins in the late 4th or 5th in some leagues because there were scenarios where he was just a superstar this year, in a way that could have created more receiving and more overall ceiling than we could have foreseen going into the year. All of that is just different for Edwards, though he's certainly shown to be a good player in his own right.
I'd agree with all this.
Thanks!