Input Volatility, Week 16

Talking through a busy weekend of games

What a weekend we’re in for, with two games Saturday, 10 Sunday, and three more Monday, all during the holidays as we sweat fantasy football on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

This is always my least favorite week of the year. I’ve written about it before, but in a ton of leagues, there’s a solid prize for being the runner up, such that winning your semifinal matchup locks in a profitable outcome. Obviously you want to win in the championship, too, but there winds up being almost a bit of relief when it’s the final week and you’re still there.

But the semifinal week can break you. I’ve had seasons where I’ve advanced a high rate of teams to the semis, such that I was exceedingly likely to have a strong season, and then things ran cold in the penultimate week and I found myself playing for third place in a bunch of spots. It can be a brutal pill to swallow, especially because when you’ve done well up to this point, it’s so hard not to count out the various potential prizes and sort of think through different favorable outcomes.

And there’s so much more than prize money on the line with this stuff. For me, it’s more about pride. I don’t have a hard time admitting that I want to win in a very competitive way. I want that validation. In every league I’m in.

At this stage of my fantasy-playing life, so much more of my exposure in season-long leagues is concentrated on higher-stakes formats, and I talked in my Stealing Signals intro about some fun sweats in those spots. But I don’t really have many other sweats — I only have two home leagues, and I’m only live in one of my handful of dynasty leagues, plus there are the best ball sweats going on that can end quickly. It’s not hard to envision a world where if this weekend goes poorly, I’m left without much to look forward to in Week 17.

That’s not meant to be pessimistic, just practical. It’s good to set expectations, and understand that while we hope for our seasons to continue, it truly all comes down to a could of weeks, and every week of an NFL season is liable to be completely bonkers. Last week was! We got so many players who have been great all year not scoring, and many who have been very disappointing going off, including some WRs I have plenty of exposure to in Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and Chris Godwin. Now I have rosters somewhat dependent on that happening again.

This is the game. We build the best teams we can, and we agonize over start/sits — I’ve gotten orders of magnitude more start/sit questions this week than any other — and ultimately it can come down to stuff like a Godwin putting up a 25-point game when he’d topped out at 10.3 in his previous half dozen contests.

And the start/sits haunt you! That’s the best part. But keep in mind that the expectation shouldn’t be that you get every decision correct. These are players with overlapping ranges of outcomes, and even if you have just two for one spot, you’re talking about a coinflip. In many cases, the correct play is 60/40, which is a great situation to be in because that’s a clear start, and then the 40% side hits because a 40% probability is still extremely live, and then you feel like you made a mistake by not going with the 40% option.

It gets worse when you start talking about have four or five solid options for two or three spots. The probability you land on the two or three best bets gets smaller the more choices you have. And we’re talking about it being a legit longshot you get it right in some cases. I tell that to people who tell me to pick two out of five — if those all had the same ranges of outcomes, your probability of hitting both is extremely low!

(The way I’d do this as a quick math problem, and I might have this wrong, but if you assume the same probabilities across the board and no correlations, I’m pretty sure to correctly guess the first one is a two out of five probability, or 40%, and then to correctly guess the second is a one out of four probability, or 25%. So then the probability you select the correct two — and omit the other three correctly as well — is a multiplication of those two probabilities which nets you a 10% chance of setting the correct lineup in that scenario. But emotionally, it feels more like you should be getting that right 90% of the time.)

Again, I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but rather trying to set realistic expectations. I think one of the natural responses to these points might also be, “Well then why do we even play this stupid game,” and I mean, “Yes,” but also we’re sick. More to the point, once you accept the start/sit game is in many ways a parlor trick, you can shift your focus and expectations of this hobby. In past years, I would have needed the success this week to validate my whole year of fantasy football. I’d like to think I’ve come far enough that it’s less compulsory, but I also know I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t be disappointed if Week 16 goes awry. I’m anxious, guys, and going to sweat every moment of the next few days.

However, I do think I’ve done a good job of just appreciating this week that I am where I am. It’s been a successful year, with several league titles in the high stakes stuff, and multiple fun sweats toward the big prizes. One of the ones I didn’t talk about when referencing my sweats earlier this week now leads the FFPC consolation bracket — it’s my Stealing Bananas and Ship Chasing tandem team (aptly titled Chasing Stolen Bananas) and it missed the auto-bid in the regular season by 7.4 points (total, across the whole season) and then lost in the league championship Week 14 to also miss the big shootout through that path (there are two ways to qualify, and it was close in both ways). And anyway, that was my highest-scoring team Week 15 and now after Thursday Night Football would be in the top 10 in the big shootout had it qualified, so that’s a fun “what if” that will also haunt us.

But wait, I was being positive. The successes I’ve had up until now are how I’d define my goals at the start of the season. And I know there’s a lot of uncertainty in how we get there, and that’s part of the journey. So rather than dwelling on the what ifs that will come, I’m choosing to be content — at least right now — about a success season. If this week goes to shit, then we’ll see how my tune changes next week.

A reminder that you won’t hear from me Monday and Tuesday of next week, but I will be back for Input Volatility later in the week, before those all-important final matchups. Then I’m off to New Orleans to see my Washington Huskies in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day, and may eventually wind up in Houston for the National Championship on January 8th if things go well in NOLA. I’ll be looking forward to getting into the postmortem and early 2024 stuff in January, and I have some fun plans to expand my offseason work with best ball really invigorating me on that front, so while you might not hear from me much over the next couple weeks, stuff will be coming early in 2024.

But let’s talk through some of the input volatility spots for this week. As always, I do this piece quickly, and I’d prefer you defer to good projections over my thoughts, because I’m talking through ranges of outcomes, not what I believe to be explicitly great predictions. I know this feels like passing the buck, but it’s a very real sentiment: I want you to make your own decisions, and play what you believe to be the right calls. I’m happy to write up some thoughts for consideration. Let’s get into it.

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Bengals at Steelers

• I continue to be skeptical of Jake Browning, and the market is too, with the Bengals landing as underdogs in a game with an over/under of just 38. They are without Ja’Marr Chase, and that could be a boost for Tee Higgins, but it could also really drag down the whole offense on the road against a good defense. I don’t have a lot of interest in ancillary pieces behind Higgins and possibly Joe Mixon.

• Part of my surprise in the line is the Steelers starting Mason Rudolph, but it’s at least feasible he’s an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky. The issue is if you believe that, you would have expected it to show itself at some point from training camp through the preseason and then through months of regular season practices (not to mention over Rudolph’s NFL career, and he’s been with Pittsburgh since 2019). Looking through his past data, there are some big reception games for RBs like Jaylen Samuels, but also some decent production for downfield weapons like Rudolph’s college teammate James Washington (as well as Chase Claypool, who only played in one Rudolph start but got 11 targets), with Diontae Johnson certainly being targeted but not really looking any heavier of a volume guy in Rudolph games than he typically is (though Johnson has been solidly efficient with Rudolph).

  

  I would say you could find arguments to support anyone: Jaylen Warren could be the Samuels, Johnson is still a target hog and there’s familiarity built up there where he could be Rudolph’s favorite, and then some of the downfield volume at least speaks to a willingness to attack the George Pickens areas of the field and route patterns. And yet, you’re still talking about a 38-point over/under, and the potential for conservative play on both sides.

Bills at Chargers

• James Cook looks like a focal point, and now the Bills are huge favorites. I have only a small concern and not really one that’s actionable, but the Bills at times have seemed to save their best RB in blowouts, in a way that I’ve always thought was sharp, and lean on them more in tougher matchups and closer games. Cook can still be massive as the Bills build their lead, though, which is why this isn’t actionable. It just wouldn’t surprise me if his snap share lags a bit this week and the other names rotate in more in the second half if this game really is a blowout.

• Certainly I’d also expect more passing than last week’s 15 attempts, which left several Bills’ pass-catchers with floor games.

• The Chargers have a new coaching staff, but I guess I don’t expect a big rebound in a tough matchup with Easton Stick still under center and more notably with Keenan Allen still out. The story of this offense all year has been a lack of weapons behind Allen, and while Josh Palmer might have a shot to hit because the opportunities should be there, he doesn’t elevate anything. Austin Ekeler hasn’t been that guy lately, either. It’s not ideal.

Colts at Falcons

• This has a chance to be a really fun matchup of two of the best RBs in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor got full practices in all week, and Zack Moss is out. Arthur Smith got criticized for not using Bijan Robinson enough last week, and he sometimes seems influenced by that stuff. I’m half expecting a ton of Bijan work, and possibly plenty of JT work on the other side, assuming that thumb is good to go.

• It also seems like Michael Pittman might be back quickly from that concussion. That’s obviously scary, but I think you’d have to treat him as good to go if he’s active. He’s distanced from everyone else in the passing game.

• The Falcons’ top pass-catchers are tougher to play, but the Colts’ defense isn’t good and Taylor Heinicke takes back over at QB. I’ll never advocate for an Arthur Smith pass-catcher but if you’ve been looking for the situation where there may be a reason to put one in your lineup, you could at least argue this is it.

Packers at Panthers

• Jayden Reed seems really questionable, while Dontayvion Wicks is questionable but maybe seems more likely to play. Wicks would be the upside volatility guy if Reed didn’t go, and Romeo Doubs would also have some upside. One issue is the Panthers are a run funnel defense and with Aaron Jones back, the Packers might try to win against a bad team on the road by just pounding the rock.

• Baker Mayfield just torched this Packers’ pass defense, so maybe there’s some hope for Bryce Young here, which is only relevant in obscure circumstances.

Browns at Texans

• The Joe Flacco impact feels pretty known at this point, and while he hasn’t been great in real life terms, his impact on pass catchers has obviously been positive.

• Devin Singletary is your guy for another week as the Texans aren’t really healthy in the receiving game and Case Keenum draws another start. The Browns are tough to throw on but can be a decent matchup for RBs.

Lions at Vikings

• The Lions are pretty well known. The Vikings looked solid with Nick Mullens under center last week, though a bit run heavy with Ty Chandler really leading the way. Justin Jefferson was not really as good as his normal self, when you look back to those stat lines the first five weeks. Jordan Addison worked off Jefferson well. I think the projections are going to do a good job of capturing all the possibilities here, including Addison having some volume-based concerns, but I really like this game as well. The Vikings have played pretty good defense of late, but both of these offenses should find some success in a weather-controlled environment, I think.

Commanders at Jets

• This is one of the tougher games for me to figure out in a while. Sam Howell got benched and Jacoby Brissett immediately looked better. That’s tricky with the Commanders going back to Howell this week, in terms of what it might mean for the offense.

• Trevor Siemian likely draws the start for the Jets in the best possible matchup, and if you’ve been on the Jets this long, I think you have to trust Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson to have strong games here. But I mean Siemian could just be horrible. There’s so much uncertainty.

Seahawks at Titans

• Geno Smith is back, and Seattle’s ranges of outcomes are pretty well known at full strength. I’ve mentioned Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s upside probably more than anyone in this column, and there’s a point to be made here about just chasing upside every week before you’ve seen it. JSN has shown flashes, though, and there are still legitimate reasons to play him depending on alternatives; it’s not an avoid just because the situation hasn’t hit yet. I just don’t think you have to jam him in, in the ways I wanted to at other points this season.

• Ryan Tannehill might be back for the Titans, and I’d guess it’d be a bit of a boost. He’s not a bad QB, and being healthy and having had time to sit and watch for a bit, I’m intrigued to see what he might do. Will Levis did get in a limited practice Friday, though.

Jaguars at Buccaneers

• Trevor Lawrence has reportedly cleared the concussion protocol just before I sent this out, so I erased my whole if/then writeup, ha. Zay Jones also missed some practices, and I didn’t see word on him yet. The offense should otherwise be fairly predictable.

• The Bucs are never a team worth discussing here, as perhaps the most consistent offense in the game in terms of usage.

Cardinals at Bears

• With Marquise Brown out, Trey McBride’s handle on the No. 1 target share should be as dominant as ever. Eventually teams will really key on trying to stop him, but you don’t sit a guy who is balling out based on that type of logic. Greg Dortch will probably get extra run in this game, as well.

• The Bears’ RB situation remains difficult to parse, but Khalil Herbert just not being 100% is one explanation for recent usage, and would make D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson viable spot starts in a pinch. My hope for this game is we get Justin Fields unleashed on the designed runs, with Kyler Murray’s electricity on display on the other side as well. Could make for a really fun environment if the gameplans allow for it.

Cowboys at Dolphins

• Speaking of potentially fun environments, the Cowboys got embarrassed last week, and I would expect them to be on a mission in this game. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but could mean an aggressive PROE and some creative playcalling, which Mike McCarthy has had fun dialing up all season.

• Mike McDaniel is happy to play that game, of course. And with Tyreek Hill expected back, and Raheem Mostert a little banged up so a potential lean to more passing with De’Von Achane out there more, it wouldn’t surprise me if Miami was rearing to go in this one as well. Obviously the Bills got to the Cowboys via a very run-heavy gameplan last week, and that’s very plausible, too. But Miami’s short passing game can similarly battle Dallas’ strong pass rush without the need for the straight handoffs. I’m optimistic about this game being a shootout, and living up to its high over/under.

Patriots at Broncos

• It’s another Ezekiel Elliott game and you’re probably looking at Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, and DeVante Parker as the main receiving corps. None of it is exciting, but the usage is more predictable than usual for the Patriots.

• We’re pretty clear on the Broncos, who have seen a slight shift to more rushing TDs in recent weeks. After five rush TDs over the past four weeks, they are up to six on the year. Jokes aside, that more balanced scoring environment has emphasized that there isn’t much upside in the passing game (Courtland Sutton does continue to post consistently solid lines, though, and his usage stays pretty solid).

Raiders at Chiefs

• The main thing for the Raiders is understanding how aggressive the overall environment was for scoring last week, and that you can’t have all those TDs each week. So I’d at least ask myself how much I’m in on Jakobi Meyers or Michael Mayer based on their TD production last week. It would be a great example of the reason we do “market share” stuff — when a team gets that many scoring opportunities, it’s a rising tide that lifts all boats. But most weeks, the environment isn’t like that.

• Rashee Rice has been fully unleashed and most projections should reflect that. Isiah Pacheco might be back, and is sounds like Jerick McKinnon might be out after some DNPs. Otherwise, it’s business as usual for the Chiefs.

Giants at Eagles

• Darren Waller’s limited routes role last week might be hiding a really strong TPRR and some potential upside if he’s more of a full go this week. Of course, Tommy DeVito is still his QB.

• The Eagles are what they are, with DeVonta Smith’s status the one question mark. I really don’t have a strong read on whether he’ll play, after he reportedly returned to practice Saturday for the final practice of the week.

Ravens at 49ers

• We close the week with two of the most important offenses in fantasy football, in a matchup of the two current favorites in futures Super Bowl odds. Baltimore will be without Keaton Mitchell, so you’re looking at Gus Edwards getting the bump, but I’d say I do expect Melvin Gordon to play some snaps and it to remain a three-way committee of sorts.

• If the Bucs aren’t the most consistent team for usage, it’s because the 49ers are. With things this concentrated and the ceiling this high in the offense, it’s a “start your studs” feel.

Good luck in Week 16 and I hope to see all of you alive and well in your championships in Week 17!