It’s wild how many topics I keep wanting to dig into given the time of year, but after thinking yesterday’s intro was probably my last long one of the year, I found there was a lot I wanted to get to today.
Specifically, as I was writing up yesterday’s 11 games, it struck me just how many late-round RBs were important pieces in Week 15, the first playoff week. Many were late-rounders that were draftable in situations like best ball — I was lucky enough to get a handful of BBM4 teams through, and many included Ty Chandler, who was one of my highest-drafted players. In addition to Chandler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Zamir White both had their first big games of the year at an opportune time.
Guys like Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams have been doing it all year. Jaylen Warren, Gus Edwards, Chuba Hubbard, Zack Moss, Jerick McKinnon and of course Devin Singletary all posted at least usable weeks, and most of those names have been usable for stretches of time. De’Von Achane has given spike weeks, at times. Jerome Ford has given a usable weekly volume floor.
This is really me circling back to the principles of Zero RB, which was something I spent more time writing about in the 2021 and 2022 offseasons than in 2023. But the ideas of thinking of your RB1 and RB2 roster slots as living things, and not just trying to stick a RB in there all year long, plus how those “Frankenstein RBs” could score like most higher-profile (and more expensive) RBs — all of that was really on display in the 2023 season, and it’s an important takeaway from this year to keep in mind as we navigate future seasons.
The big thing about those concepts was getting the distribution of production that could match some of the non-Christian McCaffrey RBs — usable weeks over time, plus also spike weeks. Someone like Mostert provided all of that in one package, whereas the Warrens of the world provided a little of both, and it was the Chandlers who haven’t done much but came up with the well-timed spike week for players who needed the plug-and-play. All the different ways you might have built at RB from later rounds were viable this year, and there was no shortage of usable names. The lesson, same as it was in 2013 when Shawn first wrote up the Zero RB strategy, is that you don’t have to pay for RB production. You can, but there are other viable paths if you find yourself in a draft where you’re able to build a monster at every other position so long as you go Zero RB.
There are a lot of analysts who have argued over the years you have to pay up for the real RB upside. They’ve cited the end of season ranks, which favor the higher-drafted guys who were in their big roles from Week 1 and stayed healthy all year. But it’s the weekly upside that gets ignored, and how you can piece your RB slots together. The only upside that was irreplaceable this year was CMC’s, and it will likely always be true at his level of scoring that you can’t get there with a Frankenstein build.
But only people with top-five picks had a shot at CMC, and none of the other high-capital RBs got you near CMC’s level of scoring, either. In fact, a Frankenstein build was your only viable path — drafting a Derrick Henry type and hoping certainly wasn’t. It’s at least feasible you could have had a Mostert or a Kyren and then also plugged in some big spike weeks from the weekly heroes that littered the 2023 season, and while that still probably wouldn’t have gotten you to CMC because he has so many 30+ point games, you can see how that path probably would have gotten you closest.
Of the 20 highest-scoring RBs in Week 15, 11 came from the list I gave at the top of deeper or undrafted RBs. Emari Demercado was also on in the top 20, but no one was playing him (the key for the other ones is literally all of them had a case for being started this week; the late-round RB high-scoring weeks are more predictable than WR or TE spike weeks that throw people off when looking at end-of-season scoring).
Then there was Rachaad White and James Conner and Alvin Kamara and James Cook — guys who also didn’t require a pick in the first five rounds in most leagues. Behind McCaffrey, there’s basically no higher-drafted RBs up there; Jahmyr Gibbs was an early Round 3 guy in higher-stakes stuff, but a Round 3/4 turn guy — or even deeper into Round 4 or into Round 5 — in most casual leagues. Joe Mixon was a climber who I can’t really remember where he settled, but I don’t think it was that high. The correlation between ADP and Week 15 scoring basically stops after CMC as the RB1, and then becomes a scatterplot of nonsense from there on out.
Of course, if you go look at full-season numbers, things seem to make a little more sense. I mentioned King Henry — he sits at RB10 on the year right now, largely because he has 257 touches and a goal-line role. He hasn’t been good, but that’s not relevant if you do your analysis like total points is the only thing that matters (it of course isn’t, because fantasy football is a weekly game).
Nothing is ever crystal clear in fantasy football. It’s still possible that next year the top RBs all smash, obviously. I’m just taking this opportunity to emphasize that for this one year, the results at RB validated the Zero RB hypotheses as clearly as can be reasonably expected.
A second quick note: Kevin Clark had Chris Long on his podcast, and in this four-minute clip Clark shared on Twitter, Long really gets at the stuff I wrote up in yesterday’s intro. It’s so good.
Lastly, I have some fun sweats I want to bring you guys in on. Two of our Ship Chasing teams are in the top 65 of the FFPC Main Event, a three-week sprint with a $1 million first prize. My best team there is in 29th place despite playing without a QB last week because waivers close when the playoffs begin, and both of our QBs got hurt in the final week after that had closed (Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud). Not really a thing where you can blame poor planning or anything; I’ve carried three QBs into the final round of this thing, but the simple fact is you can’t cover every single base (by the same logic, you’d want a third TE, a backup kicker, and then you run the risk of running out of RBs and WRs, to say nothing of wanting to use your bench for actual upside pieces, not just as contingency plans).
Meanwhile, Shawn and I have a Stealing Bananas team that sits in 40th, and we have some NFC sweats with Ship Chasing as well. Roping in the best one over there, the common player across my four biggest high stakes sweats is James Cook, and all four were WR-WR starts that attacked the RB Dead Zone and then played the position in the later rounds (Jaylen Warren and Raheem Mostert are also both on multiple of those rosters), all of which followed my core strategy for 2023 drafts. (One fascinating quirk of those four rosters is none have Sam LaPorta, who was on three of my other four teams with Shawn, as well as several other key teams for me this year.)
And then as far as my BBM4 results, I advanced three teams to the semifinals, out of 40 total BBM4 drafts. I also have a fun team I drafted with Pete Overzet on his show Best Ball After Dark this offseason, and another really fun one with Shawn from Stealing Bananas that is, yes, the team where we auto’d our first-round pick and got Bijan Robinson instead of our desired CeeDee Lamb. That team still being live is pretty hilarious, but it also gets us a low-owned Bijan through which could wind up being massive if Atlanta’s QB change does anything.
Lastly, the NFC team we do at Ship Chasing with Michael Leone every year is in a 12-team standalone league, but it also has a three-week sprint and is 70 points clear of second place after Week 15 (it entered the three-week sprint in first, and then that’s a Christian McCaffrey team that does have LaPorta, as well as Jahmyr Gibbs and Ty Chandler in the flex for a monster Week 15 score).
So I have five total teams left in BBM4 to hope to get one through to the final, and then I have a handful of different paths to potentially make some noise in the high-stakes contests in Week 16. But I’ve had these kinds of sweats before, and they can end in an instant. I’m already stressed about Week 16, and that stress is specifically related to the disaster outcomes — my hope is simply to get one thing through to Week 17 with a real chance at a high-end outcome. Of course, I can’t help but wonder about scenarios where Week 16 goes perfect, and I enter Week 17 with multiple sweats for big dollar figures. At any rate, I’ll keep you guys posted.
Alright, let’s get to the games. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
49ers 45, Cardinals 29
Key Stat: Trey McBride — 33% TPRR, 11 targets
The 49ers predictably smashed the Cardinals, with Christian McCaffrey (18-115-1, 5-5-72-2) doing Christian McCaffrey things en route to a 187-yard, 3-TD day. Ho hum.
Deebo Samuel (7-4-48-2, 1-11) continues to look like the game-script-independent version of himself at his very peak, while Brandon Aiyuk (5-3-37) and George Kittle (4-2-54) both suffered a bit, volume-wise, due to the rout. That’s natural for downfield receivers, whereas Deebo can obviously get volume closer to the line of scrimmage, despite his 11.0 aDOT here (his single-game aDOTs are often even more misleading than most single-game aDOTs, as the air yards can come in two or three plays or not at all). I also want to clarify I wouldn’t sit Aiyuk or Kittle purely because I was expecting a San Francisco blowout, because they can have a huge impact on getting there. Aiyuk very nearly caught multiple deep shots and still got 93 air yards, for example.
James Conner (14-86-1, 3-3-3) had a nice day, while Emari Demercado (4-64-1, 3-1-6) got loose for a long TD run in the fourth quarter, to cut a three-score game to two scores. Michael Carter (3-27, 3-3-10) gave up some No. 2 work to Demercado, and ultimately this backfield isn’t likely to provide this big of a pie most weeks, so it’s probably at least a minor concern that it was split three ways, with Conner only seeing 48% snaps at the top. Of course, some of the snaps he gave up were in garbage time.
Trey McBride (11-10-102) continued to dominate volume in the Cardinals passing game. I’ve compared him to Travis Kelce in how he’s the focal point of this passing attack, but have seen Adam Levitan call him Trey Gronkowski a couple times this week, and like that comparison better (from a play-style perspective). Bottom line is it isn’t just McBride’s numbers — the way he dominates pops off the screen. He left with a shoulder injury in this one that forced him back to the locker room briefly in the second quarter, but he’d return to the game before half. I mention that only to note his routes were down to 72% and yet he still had 7 more targets than any of his teammates as the clear No. 1. At one point, on a key red zone snap, the broadcast team noted McBride was not out there, clearly noting he’s their go-to guy in a casual way that very much fits when you’re watching their games. I am extremely in on this guy long term.
Elijah Higgins (4-4-44-1) was the next most productive Cardinals’ pass-catcher, which is to say the WRs really struggled. Greg Dortch (3-2-15, 1-5) and Rondale Moore (3-2-5, 1-3) had nearly identical underwhelming lines, and then Michael Wilson (3-0-0) and Zach Pascal (4-0-0) didn’t catch a pass, as Marquise Brown aggravated his heel injury and left after just a 32% snap share.
Signal: Trey McBride — had to miss some time to get his shoulder looked at, but still dominated targets with 11 on just 72% routes for a 33% TPRR
Noise: Marquise Brown — 0 targets (aggravated heel injury, played just 32% snaps); James Conner — 48% snap share (gave up garbage time reps, but it’s notable two other RBs are playing behind him)
Rams 28, Commanders 20
Key Stat: Kyren Williams — 8 HVTs (tied most in Week 15)
The Rams mostly handled the Commanders, leading 28-7 midway through the fourth quarter before Washington got a couple of late TDs. Sam Howell got benched, with Jacoby Brissett legitimately providing a spark to lead those two TD drives, but Washington plans to go back to Howell next week.
Kyren Williams (27-152-1, 7-5-3) handled a huge load in the heavy positive script, and the Rams stuck with him despite his losing two fumbles, a sign of how committed they are to him as their lead back. And it makes sense, obviously, but it also gets back to some of my comments a few weeks back about dynasty formats where this team is definitely going to add RB depth this offseason one way or another. That said, Kyren continues to exceed my expectations, taking a favorable situation and crushing it. One major note, and I’ve written about Sean McVay’s RB usage in the green zone plenty of times, but this was the third game of four since Kyren’s return where he got at least 4 green zone touches, which is a ton (he also has at least 22 touches total in each of those games).
Cooper Kupp (8-8-111-1) and Puka Nacua (8-5-50, 2-3) dominated the volume, as Tyler Higbee (5-4-36) returned to a secondary role and Demarcus Robinson (3-2-44-1, 1-23) was up to 100% routes. There are these situations where I just don’t have a ton to add; this team is concentrated and efficient, like a lesser version of the 49ers above, and things are pretty straightforward.
For Washington, things weren’t great until Brissett took over, when Terry McLaurin (12-6-141-1) hit on a few big plays, including coming up just short on a potential second TD. Curtis Samuel (9-5-41-2) did get home on a second TD, while Jahan Dotson (1-1-12) remains in the witness protection program. I have no idea what has happened with that dude. Logan Thomas (3-1-7) also had a quiet game in this one.
Antonio Gibson (4-15, 5-5-20) caught a handful of balls out of the backfield, while Chris Rodriguez (10-35) handled the majority of the rushing with Brian Robinson out. Jonathan Williams (1-(-2), 1-0-0) also worked in, but he didn’t handled many touches. It’s hard to justify a WAS RB that isn’t Robinson, if we’re being honest. There are cases for Gibson, but he always seems to underwhelm them.
Signal: Sam Howell — benched, and Jacoby Brissett played well in relief (Howell is expected to start next week, but now that the seal is broken and Brissett succeeded, we’re at increased risk for another benching if Howell struggles, and it would be difficult to trust him)
Noise: Terry McLaurin — 3 catches for 93 yards and TD on from Brissett, who threw just 10 passes (Howell set to start next week)
Bills 31, Cowboys 10
Key Stat: Bills — (-15.5%) PROE, 29.2% actual pass rate (lowest pass rate for any team in a game this season)
As you’ve undoubtedly heard even if you missed the game, the Bills dominated this one on the ground. But you might not understand just how extreme that was, so let me put it in context. Because they led throughout and ran a lot of plays, Buffalo had the second lowest expected pass rate of any team in a game this year, behind only the 49ers in their Week 4 win over Arizona. And yet, the Bills were still -15.5% in PROE, which is unfathomable given that low of an expectation. It not only gave them the lowest actual pass rate for any team in a game this year, it put them more than five percentage points below the previous lowest. And what was that one? The Giants in Week 8, where Tommy DeVito made his debut as an injury replacement for Tyrod Taylor, but Brian Daboll basically didn’t let him pass for more than a half in an eventual 13-10 loss to the Jets. DeVito played 50 snaps in that game and threw just 7 passes; the Bills here in Week 15 wound up with a lower actual pass rate than that game, and it wasn’t particularly close.
James Cook (25-179-1, 3-2-42-1) was the star, racking up more than 200 total yards and scores on both the ground and through the air. That got him to just 6 total TDs on the year, but Cook is now second in the NFL to Christian McCaffrey in rushing yardage, and he’s RB5 in PPR fantasy points, though his per-game average is quite a bit lower. That said, he’s posted his two highest-scoring games of the year over the past two weeks, and everyone seems to be tripping over themselves to anoint him the new focal point of the offense. Biased as I am by my shares in high-stakes formats, I just hope they’re right. Latavius Murray (5-11-1) was notably down to a season-low 17% snap share, while Ty Johnson (9-54, 1-1-4) is also factoring in and is more of the direct No. 2 at this stage, with Murray sort of just a goal-line vulture.
Stefon Diggs (5-4-48) was the only WR or TE to catch a pass in this game, as Josh Allen completed 7 of just 15 attempts, and three went to RBs. The routes were fine for Gabe Davis (1-0-0) and Dalton Kincaid (2-0-0), and Dawson Knox (no targets) continued to work in with Khalil Shakir (1-0-0) coming off some. I guess Kincaid’s routes did dip some, but there were so few obvious pass formations, and so few passes overall, that I wouldn’t read into it too much. Everyone’s routes were down a little bit, and in run heavy games like this, a decent chunk of the passes become play-action stuff out of heavy formations where the pass is made to look like a run, since you’re running so much. In those, you might only have like two eligible receivers out in the route.
The Cowboys totaled just 195 yards of offense, after posting at least double in three straight games and five of the previous six. The Bills ran the ball well enough to keep them off the field; Dallas finished with just eight possessions on the day. There’s not a lot here that I would expect to be predictive and I would expect Dallas to bounce back next week, even on the road in Miami.
Dak Prescott threw for just 134 yards, so CeeDee Lamb (10-7-53, 1-3-1) and Jake Ferguson (8-6-44) didn’t post huge numbers, and Brandin Cooks (6-2-10) was the only other WR or TE to catch multiple passes. Lamb did get there with a 3-yard touchdown run late.
Tony Pollard (11-52, 3-2-5) remained in a big role, but there wasn’t much going for the offense, and that always trickles down to the RB. Rico Dowdle (3-4, 3-2-8) didn’t do anything in his secondary role, either.
Signal: James Cook — two strongest games of the year over past two weeks, looks like a potential league-winner despite an imperfect role thanks to the efficiency (Latavius Murray down to season-low 17% snap share, but still a green zone vulture)
Noise: Cowboys — 195 total yards (had doubled this each of three previous games, and five of their previous six)
Ravens 23, Jaguars 7
Key Stat: Gus Edwards — 4 green zone touches (tied second most in Week 15)
The Ravens beat the Jaguars in a pretty slow game that wasn’t very hotly contested, with Baltimore ultimately running 42 times against just 24 passes, which was only good for a -3.8% PROE since their expected pass rate was quite low. The big news was that they lost Keaton Mitchell (9-73, 2-2-15) for the year to a torn ACL, a crushing blow given they’ve more or less admitted Gus Edwards (16-58-1, 1-1-11) and Justice Hill (5-23, 1-0-0) don’t provide the dynamism they are seeking. Melvin Gordon will likely be activated to keep this as a three-way committee, but Edwards should be considered the lead the rest of the way, and he continues to maintain his clear lead on green zone work with four touches in this one.
Zay Flowers (2-1-7) and Odell Beckham (3-1-14) had quiet days in the low-volume affair, while Isaiah Likely (6-5-70-1) led the way and Rashod Bateman (6-3-39) saw more targets than usual. There were only 24 total pass attempts, so there’s not much to read into from these splits.
Calvin Ridley (12-5-39) had a big volume game with 164 air yards, but wasn’t very productive for Jacksonville. Zay Jones (8-5-59) also saw big air yards at 144, in his high-aDOT role. Parker Washington (6-4-12) continued to struggle as he tries to replace Christian Kirk in the slot, and Jamal Agnew (2-2-70-1) actually got loose for a long TD. Agnew has been productive in the slot for the Jaguars in the past, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw him start to get some of those routes Washington has been taking since Kirk went down. Evan Engram (6-4-28) is the other obvious target underneath, and he was quiet here, too.
Travis Etienne (10-31, 6-4-28) was at a nice 69% snap share, and D’Ernest Johnson (2-5) only got two touches, but the Jaguars gave their RBs just 13 carries in this blowout loss. Etienne’s role remains strong.
Signal: Gus Edwards — 4 green zone touches (clear lead in close, should be the lead fantasy back with Keaton Mitchell out but expect Melvin Gordon to work in, too)
Noise: Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham — 5 combined targets (only 24 pass attempts in the game, so not too much to read into)
Seahawks 20, Eagles 17
Key Stat: Eagles — (-8.3%) PROE, Seahawks — (-7.4%) PROE
Monday Night Football featured one team with a sick quarterback and another with a backup, and both were willing to run the ball at a high rate and try to win without straining too much. You understand that type of mindset given the circumstances, but of course we know how these types of one-score games can go, and for the Eagles, that meant them losing on a 92-yard TD drive after they had to punt with just under two minutes remaining. Because of the Seahawks’ timeout situation, had Philadelphia gotten into a fourth-and-manageable with perhaps a run play on their third-down incompletion before the 2-minute warning, and then converted that fourth down on the other side of the 2-minute, they could have just kneeled the game out. Instead, they threw incomplete and punted on fourth-and-7, giving the Seahawks enough time for a 10-play TD drive capped by Drew Lock hitting Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4-4-48-1) for a signature rookie-season moment for the youngster that hasn’t had many, catching a game-winning fingertip pass in the rain.
JSN’s 83% routes were his third highest rate on the year, and it was the last route he ran where he made his biggest mark on the game, which can be seen as another of those statements that you have to have your best players on the field as much as possible. These teams that don’t do it are really handicapping themselves for dubious reasons. D.K. Metcalf (6-5-78) made some grown-man catches, and of course he and Tyler Lockett (9-3-21) were in their typically large roles. Noah Fant (5-3-16) ran a season-high 69% routes.
Kenneth Walker (19-86-1, 3-3-26) had a strong game, showing multiple times why the Seahawks are willing to accept his chaotic boom/bust running style because of how it can manifest in highlight plays. Zach Charbonnet (4-16, 1-0-0) took a back seat, but did run a really strong 57% routes.
D’Andre Swift (18-74, 3-2-1) was the focal point on the other side, along with Jalen Hurts (13-82-2) seeing plenty of rushing volume himself. Swift seemed allergic to the end zone in this one, seemingly diving onto the ground inside the 5-yard line to set up Hurts for tush pushes, as if Swift was starting Hurts on his own fantasy team. Kenneth Gainwell (6-21, 1-0-0) operated in his No. 2 role, and got a pair of green zone touches, with Swift getting three.
A.J. Brown (10-5-56) led the way in the passing game, with Dallas Goedert (9-4-30) seeing a boost and DeVonta Smith (5-5-50) posting an efficient if lower-volume day. Things remained concentrated, which helped offset volume issues given the heavier run lean.
Signal: Noah Fant — season-high 69% routes as he seems to be the main TE in 11 personnel and Seattle seems to be leaning into that more to keep Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the field
Noise: Eagles, Seahawks — heavy run leans (Jalen Hurts was sick, Geno Smith was out)
Biggest Signals
Vaguely ranked in order of relevance/importance (which includes whether it was surprising and size of impact; if it’s important but just confirmation of something we knew or thought we knew, it ranks a little lower; new information and top waiver adds rank near the top).
James Cook — two strongest games of the year over past two weeks, looks like a potential league-winner despite an imperfect role thanks to the efficiency (Latavius Murray down to season-low 17% snap share, but still a green zone vulture)
Ty Chandler — handled big load on 79% snaps, and was efficient (likely has earned at least 50/50 share when Alexander Mattison is back)
Zamir White — 71% snaps, 59% routes, both RB green zone touches