With no Stealing Signals this week, I’d meant to get to Input Volatility a little earlier in the week for those of you in championship games, but it’s been a busy week with Christmas landing on Monday, my kids home from school for winter break this week, and getting ready to travel to New Orleans to see my Huskies play on January 1 (I fly out later today, Friday).
But I did Signals Gold Tuesday and hit on several specific team questions there, and then a few more of you have messaged directly. And I realized it’s probably easiest to just try to help everyone I can individually, since every league has its own specifics. Given the travel, I’m not sure how responsive I can be between now and Sunday, but feel free to hit me up in the comments or via email if you have a particularly difficult call you want two cents on, and I’ll try to get to as many as I can.
Also, several of you have asked about my sweats. I had three teams miss the BBMIV finals by finishing third or second, and then my one with Shawn finished fifth. The most disappointing one was a Christian McCaffrey roster that came up just a couple points short (it was tough watching CMC get stuffed at the goal line and then Sam Darnold take a terrible third-down sack on a dropback from the 1-yard line, where he has to throw that ball away out of the end zone and ensure the 49ers can run fourth down from the 1-yard line, not the 11; if CMC scores on second down or gets another try on fourth and punches that in, I advance).
That was a disappointing end to the Underdog season for me, after a team I have with Peter Overzet came up just shy of what it needed in the Eagles’ game earlier, and then my only Breece Hall team — which was a CeeDee Lamb/Amon-Ra St. Brown start, and I believe was my highest-scoring team of the semifinals — never had a chance against an Amari Cooper/Puka Nacua monster that won my pod with 185.4 points. So despite some positive performances, I wasn’t able to grab one of those elusive 441 tickets to the BBM final to potentially win $3 million. My buddy Pat Kerrane did punch a ticket to defend his title, and I heard from a few subscribers here who are in as well, which is awesome to see.
But the high stakes redraft stuff has been more fun. With a Breece Hall team, Shawn and I finished Week 16 up to 14th overall in the FFPC Main Event, and have since moved up to ninth after Thursday Night Football. That’s incredible, and if you told me we’d be there two weeks ago, I’d have done backflips.
But given the way Week 16 played out, it actually felt like a letdown. We talked about it on the latest episode of Stealing Bananas, but we’d reached as high as fifth after Breece’s explosion in the early window, and we had four players left to play. Then Jaylen Waddle got hurt twice in the late window, both Trey McBride and D’Andre Swift had just solid games, and our kicker Harrison Butker scored just 2 points while our backup kicker Jason Sanders went off for 23.8 on our bench. Sanders’ performance was so vital that he was apparently the second most rostered player among the top-20 teams entering the final week; I have to assume we were the only team sitting in the top 20 who has him but didn’t play him and realize that huge advantage.
So when I’d written this introduction yesterday, before the TNF game, I was a bit more melancholy, feeling like Week 16 was the rough outcome wiping away all the major sweats that I’d feared going in. A takeaway was you’re never guaranteed anything until all the games are played; that when things are going right, it feels almost inevitable, but you do have to really appreciate when it continues that way, because things can so quickly stop on a dime and change course.
That one BBM sweat that came incredibly close got the good fortune of a winnable pod, and no other CMC teams near the top. It was within range with most of the fourth quarter to go, and CMC played a lot of the fourth, but he spent a lot of it pass blocking, and then failed to get into the end zone when he got a carry from the 2-yard line that could have done it. For the FFPC team, things looked really good to be sitting in the top 10, and there were frankly paths to sitting atop the leaderboard in first at the end of Week 16 — or at least in something like the top three — if everything went great with Waddle, McBride, Swift, and the kicker situation. But winning huge tournaments isn’t easy, just as winning smaller leagues isn’t. The goal is to get teams with explosive upside close. In self-analyzing, I do think my results show that the goal was accomplished this year. The way it all plays out is just part of the game.
I feel very fortunate to have risen back up to ninth in that FFPC Main Event, and then I have a team with the big dog Evan Silva that had both Breece and David Njoku which — after a blowup from low-owned Gabe Davis in Week 16 — has risen all the way to 10th overall after TNF. It looks like I’ll get to sweat some things after all, with two top 10 teams that have both used two players and definitely need to stay very hot through the rest of the lineup, but both of which at least have an outside chance of making some noise.
Let’s talk through some of the input volatility spots for this week. As always, I do this piece quickly, and I’d prefer you defer to good projections over my thoughts, because I’m talking through ranges of outcomes, not what I believe to be explicitly great predictions. I do intend to spend a little more time talking through some usage notes from Week 16, giving I didn’t write Stealing Signals.
But as always, and especially with your season on the line, I want you to make the start/sits you can live with. If I’ve learned anything, it’s not about always starting your studs, or always going with the projection, or any of that — it’s about trusting your own decision, and which way you think the games will lean. I’ve written this in this column for several weeks now, but I want you to play what you believe to be the right calls.
There are no clear answers; these decisions always have overlapping ranges of outcomes; no one has a crystal ball, no matter how many fantasy analysts try to sell you on that. In tons of cases, these teams are hiding what they intend to do, and the ways people win big money each week in DFS or in Battle Royales, or any of those things, is in understanding and leaning into uncertainty. That’s the truth of it all.
So play the guys you can live riding with — for some of you, that’s sticking with the guys who got you there, and for others that’s an inclination to bench the dudes who got you there to make that hero swap to a higher-volatility play with real upside. I’ve talked and played fantasy with a ton of different types of people, and my answers to start/sits would frankly be tailored to the risk tolerance and personalities of the people themselves. That seems crazy, but that’s how uncertain the decisions typically are — you’re not asking about the easy ones, just the ones that are pretty damn close to 50/50 coinflips — that I literally think prioritizing unrelated factors like the impact on your mental state based on what decision you make is absolutely something worth considering to break these ties.
I’m excited to be riding with Kyle Pitts on my team with Shawn that has the better chance of my two top-10 teams, because my expectations for him are so low (we’re only playing him in the flex because of the Waddle injury after having lost Rhamondre Stevenson a few weeks ago, and because no one else will be, so a ceiling game would be a legit differentiating title-chasing opportunity). If I was expecting a lot more from Pitts, and he could hurt me any more with a poor game than he already has, I don’t think I’d be as pumped to play him. But I legit feel numb to the downside and see so many fun possibilities if he can do something epic and totally redeem himself after two years of struggles.
That’s a more obscure decision from a deeper league with ownership considerations than most of you face. For you guys, I’m often hearing about several good options, and you’re having to bench players that project much better than Pitts. As always, I’m happy to write up some thoughts on all the key input volatility situations for consideration, and as I noted I’ll probably add some usage notes as I go through. Let’s get into it.
Lions at Cowboys
The chalk game stack in the BBM final features concentrated offenses on both sides, with mostly known roles and usage. Two very minor usage things to report: Jalen Tolbert ran only 34% routes last week, as Michael Gallup got back over 60% to 61% for the first time since Week 6. And David Montgomery was down to 17% routes, as Jahmyr Gibbs continued to establish himself as the clear top fantasy RB in this backfield.
Dolphins at Ravens
Similarly, these offenses are pretty known. Tyreek Hill ran routes on 97% of dropbacks in his return last week, and is fine as he goes forward with Jaylen Waddle now out. There’s nothing that Waddle being out sets up other than more work for Hill and potentially the RBs. Possibly Cedrick Wilson but it’s thin.
De’Von Achane also got up to a season-high 68% routes with Raheem Mostert questionable entering the game, but Mostert still led in touches, and will presumably be a little healthier this week as he seemed to exit the game unscathed.
For the Ravens, Justice Hill took over a lot of the vacated Keaton Mitchell work, and finally had touches to go with his strong snaps role. Hill played 62% of the snaps and dominated passing work, while Gus Edwards was at 43%.
Also, Nelson Agholor jumped back up to 64% routes, while Rashod Bateman dipped down to 49%. I don’t mind stabs at Agholor in certain contests, like if you’re playing Baltimore to the Super Bowl in Underdog’s playoff drafts.
Patriots at Bills
Ezekiel Elliott’s played over 80% of the snaps and posted at least 7 HVTs in three straight games, which is legitimately one of the highest-floor roles out there right now, even if the efficiency ceiling is likely capped. He’s not a must start, but he’s also not a clear bench just because he’s old and averaging 3.5 yards per carry.
Dalton Kincaid fell to a season-low 52% routes last week as he is no longer a focal point of this offense. I would expect that to rebound some, but the return of Dawson Knox hasn’t necessarily meant a ton more two-TE sets, as the team has kept Khalil Shakir on the field a good amount, and so Knox is to some degree just cutting into Kincaid.
In his first active game, Leonard Fournette played 10 snaps to just 7 for Latavius Murray, who didn’t get a touch (Murray played mostly on passing downs). I’d be prioritizing Lenny in that No. 2 battle.
Falcons at Bears
I’ve joked about this before, but Arthur Smith’s offense is wildly unpredictable, and I do genuinely believe every player has volatility in their projection.
Chicago’s passing game and the Justin Fields projection are easy, while the RB situation is another that has a ton of volatility. Khalil Herbert shot up to 51% snaps last week, with Roschon Johnson at 46% and still running more routes. Herbert got 20 carries, while Johnson led in HVTs, 4 to 2. Now D’Onta Foreman is likely to return to the mix, and the HVT split is so unclear that you’re really just playing for a TD if you’re dipping in here.
Titans at Texans
Derrick Henry still got 19 carries last week, but Tyjae Spears notched his fourth straight game with more than 50% snaps, and he’s averaged more than 10 carries and exactly 4 receptions per game in that span. The Titans are out of it and have no reason to ride Henry too hard, while they do seem to want to see more of what they have in Spears. Henry has that great history against the Texans, but there’s some fragility to his upside this week.
C.J. Stroud’s back, and that’s exciting for the whole offense. The Texans are also on the outside looking in for the final playoff spot, which they are currently losing via a tiebreaker right now. After losing two of their last three, this is a gotta-have-it game, and if nothing else that urgency is a positive for potential pace and play volume.
Raiders at Colts
Zamir White played over 70% snaps and ran routes on over 60% of dropbacks for the second straight week, a really strong role. He had 4 HVTs in the first of those two games, but none in the win over KC last week, though he got 22 low-value rushes which he took for 145 yards. He’s a very solid play against a bad Colts’ defense.
It sounds like the Colts should have everyone up, with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss looking likely to play together for the first time since Week 12, and Michael Pittman progressing well through the concussion protocol (though not yet cleared). Because they’ve had some guys out in recent weeks, there’s definitely uncertainty with usage here, but the Colts are another team right on the playoff fringe and the expectation should be they lean into their best players, which for me pretty clearly means Taylor and Pittman, with Moss likely also mixing in.
Panthers at Jaguars
Last week, the Panthers scored four offensive touchdowns and hit 30 points for the first time this year; coming in, they had just three offensive touchdowns in their previous six games combined. There’s not to chase there, although if they do score, Chuba Hubbard has shown to be a high TD equity guy.
Travis Etienne’s routes were down to a season-low 37%, while Jamal Agnew played a ton more (still only 52% routes) and the Jaguars seemed to both keep in extra blockers and go with extra WRs at a decent clip. I’d guess that was more matchup related and wouldn’t be too concerned about Etienne, who has obviously cooled since his hot first half, but is still a solid RB play.
Rams at Giants
The Rams are one of the most obvious teams in football, and the micro shifts in usage between Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua still don’t really matter to me. The only relevant thing recently is how Demarcus Robinson is playing, and he’s run routes on at least 94% of dropbacks for three straight weeks. Don’t jam him into lineups, but there would be worse trends to chase than his recent production, particularly because his role seems very secure due to his run blocking.
Darren Waller jumped up to 76% routes, and is at least a viable TE consideration with Tyrod Taylor taking over at QB. I wouldn’t feel confident in much else in the Giants’ passing game.
Cardinals at Eagles
Marquise Brown is going to be out, and Trey McBride is coming off a strong 88% routes, up a bit from Week 15 (which was due to his shoulder thing). McBride only hit for 31 yards but tied for a team-high 8 targets in a game where the RBs totaled 14 targets, so Kyler Murray was struggling to get the ball downfield. That’s just normal weekly variance for a strong receiving option who still looks great this week.
Philly is what they are; there are no secrets here, just gameplan specifics that lean things one way or another. D’Andre Swift’s routes did hit a season-low 29% last week, but he’s been down to 30% before, and never higher than 54% since the bye, so it’s all in the same relative range. He’s not a lock starter with a bit of a TRAP profile lately, but there’s still a very clear argument for playing him in a home game against Arizona.
Saints at Buccaneers
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed were on the field together last week for the first time in a month, and dominated volume. That’s pretty straightforward. There’s some potential if Kendre Miller can be activated that the Saints want to see what they have in him, but that seems more likely to manifest in Week 18.
The Bucs are the same as they ever were. Only real note is Chris Godwin has maybe started clicking a little more with Baker Mayfield of late; sometimes those new QB-WR connections just take more time to figure out, but they’ve looked really in sync in recent weeks, and Godwin’s had some of his best production of the year with double-digit targets in three straight. He only has one receiving TD on the year, which I do think Mike Evans legitimately has way more TD equity, but Godwin’s real upside is probably masked a bit by that.
49ers at Commanders
The 49ers are another team that’s obviously very consistent. It’s a minor thing, but I guess it’s worth noting that Deebo Samuel has probably worked his way back into the preseason ADP expectation where he would be for me the second most consistent skill position guy.
There’s a ton of volatility with Washington as Jacoby Brissett takes over, since he’s been really good in relief two weeks in a row. I think you can legitimately upgrade the Commanders’ WRs with Brian Robinson also likely to miss again, and the Commanders likely needing to throw late in the game. Certainly this is a tough matchup, though.
Steelers at Seahawks
It’s kind of the same as its been for me with the Steelers. George Pickens is coming off the monster game, but Mason Rudolph looking competent could also be a positive for Diontae Johnson. The RB split seemingly always vacillates week to week.
It’s a little hard to believe, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba still has not put up 65 yards in a game this season. That said, earning 86 targets to date as the No. 3 weapon in this offense — with the top two guys staying remarkably healthy — is still a pretty favorable note, and I continue to think highly of him, even as 2023 didn’t really go well enough to be talking about him in Week 17 terms rather than while looking ahead at his future.
Chargers at Broncos
With Russell Wilson benched, I have no idea what to make of this game between backup QBs, but an over/under around 37 suggests we might see the RBs leaned on a little too much, and not a whole lot of reasons for excitement.
One note is after a stretch of three games over 40% routes from Week 12 to Week 14, Javonte Williams fell to 26% in Week 15 and then 16% last week, as the Broncos incorporated both Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin more.
On the other side, Austin Ekeler’s snaps bounced back to 64% after being down at 40% in Week 14, but there’s fragility there, too.
Bengals at Chiefs
It seems like we’ll get Ja’Marr Chase back, and he’s doing some talking about the Chiefs’ secondary ahead of this matchup. The Bengals are a pretty known commodity, and are still in the playoff race so any Joe Mixon concern re: Chase Brown is probably pretty mild, at least until Week 18 (if the Bengals are eliminated).
My read on what happened with the Chiefs on Christmas Day is the skill guys really just aren’t getting open, as evidenced by Patrick Mahomes taking off and running quite a bit in big spots. Even the pick-six, which was bad on Mahomes’ part, wasn’t helped by a weak route where his WR on that side could have been stronger back to the ball to not allow the DB to undercut the route so seamlessly. I don’t necessarily consider myself a tape guy, as I always say, but if the WRs are getting open, it’s at least true that Mahomes doesn’t trust them — perhaps there are for example inconsistencies in their routes, where he doesn’t trust the timing of the break enough to deliver the ball into the open window when he needs to. And Patrick Mahomes has done enough that I’m very comfortable putting that on the WRs, who have as a unit done basically nothing their whole careers. Rashee Rice is still the obvious play, as well as Travis Kelce, but there’s legit concern about the passing game.
The RB situation is a very difficult one to parse, with all three main guys not having clear statuses. If only one plays, like Clyde Edwards-Helaire (the only one to finish last week’s game of the main three), and we get a clean bill of health, that would obviously be ideal.
Packers at Vikings
The final game of the 2023 fantasy season comes on Sunday night, and looks like it will feature Jaren Hall under center for Minnesota. Both teams are one game out of the final Wild Card spot and will be essentially eliminated with a loss. I expect plenty of rushing for the Vikings, and Ty Chandler did dominate the backfield last week despite he and Alexander Mattison combining for just 10 total RB touches in the loss to Detroit. Chandler’s an iffy one with the QB situation and Mattison a week healthier, but the Packers’ defense isn’t tough and Chandler’s the easier bet than Mattison by a long way. I’d be comfortable using him in the right spots.
As for the passing game, with T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison both potentially out, I think you have to use Justin Jefferson and then no one else, probably.
For the Packers, Aaron Jones isn’t playing a massive amount, but he showed his explosiveness last week with a 127-yard rushing performance on 21 carries. He’s still a potential efficiency upside type of player, and you can certainly do worse than leaning into that.
The WRs are difficult each week, but Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have both been good at times, while Romeo Doubs gets his consistent volume (and underperforms it). All are options or avoidable, depending on context.
That’s all for this week. As I noted in the intro, I’ll be traveling into next week, so it’s not clear when I’ll check in again. But I do look forward to plenty of content in January and the early offseason. It’s been a truly enjoyable 2023 writing for you guys, much better than the difficulties of 2022, and I just want to thank you for reading along and continuing to support this newsletter. Your patronage means the world to me.
Good luck in your finals matchups!