This is really one of your best, Ben. I'm keeping that note about seeking upside and ignoring the emotional response to duds top of mind while setting lineups.
I've never paid too much respect/attention to projections because the ones I'm exposed to are usually the fantasy site's, espn, sleeper, etc. and I've heard those are low quality.
I usually double check obvious start/sit decisions based off fantasypros ECR rankings for the week and assume the analysts there look at quality projections; are better than me at interpreting them and way better at making calls on input volatility. For close calls, I go to a group of about 5 of my fav analysts and get a tie breaker based on what they have ranked for the week. These analysts are my favorite because of their ability to make great calls on input volatility. Just to note that I use different sources, my fav analysts don't have their rankings on fantasypros.
I want to incorporate looking at high quality projections like the one you mentioned, ETR's, but I'm not sure of the order in which I would prioritize them. Would I use them to double check obvious calls, over a big analyst consensus (like fantasypros), or more as a final decider on very close calls? Thoughts on my overall process in deciding who to start, potential blindsides or improvements?
I would weigh good projections more than an analyst consensus like fantasypros. I don't have an issue with using rankings, especially those of the analysts you trust and know to be good, but using fantasypros ECR is probably not sound process. At the risk of sounding pompous and being too critical, you're giving everything about that too much credit with your commentary about how good those rankings are and the process you assume the individual analysts must go through. I mean you definitely get this sweeping Wisdom of the Crowds element, but there's a reason the analysts you really like don't put their rankings on their site.
Thanks for the reply and for giving me your thoughts unfiltered.
I will be checking out ETR's projections and keeping your thoughts in mind if I ever find myself putting to much weight on the ECR. I'm 10-2 through week 2 and what you do has been a huge help.
Trying to apply this advice to a who to start this week if Gabe Davis is out... Standard scoring, I can choose one of Jahan Dotson, Elijah Moore, or Robert Woods.
Woods is a no go for me unless Davis is ruled out late, and I have to play a Monday night guy.
Elijah Moore’s Vegas line is 50.5 yards, ~+300 for anytime TD. Jets are implied to score only two touchdowns based on the spread and o/u. In terms of target share, our long view on Moore is that he will command a higher than average target share based on past performance and talent, but as you said in stealing signals, his week 1 usage was disappointing given his routes and that Flacco threw 59 times...
Dotson and the WSH offense have many question marks in terms of “input.” We don’t know what the target share will look like here because there’s so many new variables in the offense (new QB, new WRs, Rivera indicating they want to use Gibson more in pass game). Plus there’s the general historic inconsistency of Wentz. Vegas has Dotson at 42.5 yards and ~+200 for anytime TD. WSH is implied to score 3 TDs based on spread and O/U. Also, lions D is trash.
Moore seems to have a higher floor to me based on the inputs. Dotson seemingly has a higher ceiling based on the Vegas projections and the promising week 1 usage.
I’m currently projected to win by 23 points after the Thursday nighter, so Moore seems like the safer choice as there’s seemingly less input volatility with him than Dotson?
Let me know if I’m thinking about that right. Thanks Gretch.
I made a similar decision in my big home league to go with Everett after starting Albert O last week. I considered Hurst as a pivot (Higgins questionable so more targets but they probably won’t need to be pass heavy against DAL) and was very reluctant to rely on Albert O since it unfortunately looks like DEN players have a donkey head coach running things.
And going against my opponent who had Herbert and Mike Will, it felt like a no-brainer since if they have good games then Everett probably will too *or* if they have bad games then maybe he somehow benefits and it won’t kill me if he doesn’t. It will be interesting to see what happens when Keenan comes back but Everett looked really good in this game – the black visor and #7 certainly helps!
This is really one of your best, Ben. I'm keeping that note about seeking upside and ignoring the emotional response to duds top of mind while setting lineups.
like this one a lot
Enjoyed it, like where you may be able to go with it !
Awesome read!
I've never paid too much respect/attention to projections because the ones I'm exposed to are usually the fantasy site's, espn, sleeper, etc. and I've heard those are low quality.
I usually double check obvious start/sit decisions based off fantasypros ECR rankings for the week and assume the analysts there look at quality projections; are better than me at interpreting them and way better at making calls on input volatility. For close calls, I go to a group of about 5 of my fav analysts and get a tie breaker based on what they have ranked for the week. These analysts are my favorite because of their ability to make great calls on input volatility. Just to note that I use different sources, my fav analysts don't have their rankings on fantasypros.
I want to incorporate looking at high quality projections like the one you mentioned, ETR's, but I'm not sure of the order in which I would prioritize them. Would I use them to double check obvious calls, over a big analyst consensus (like fantasypros), or more as a final decider on very close calls? Thoughts on my overall process in deciding who to start, potential blindsides or improvements?
I would weigh good projections more than an analyst consensus like fantasypros. I don't have an issue with using rankings, especially those of the analysts you trust and know to be good, but using fantasypros ECR is probably not sound process. At the risk of sounding pompous and being too critical, you're giving everything about that too much credit with your commentary about how good those rankings are and the process you assume the individual analysts must go through. I mean you definitely get this sweeping Wisdom of the Crowds element, but there's a reason the analysts you really like don't put their rankings on their site.
Thanks for the reply and for giving me your thoughts unfiltered.
I will be checking out ETR's projections and keeping your thoughts in mind if I ever find myself putting to much weight on the ECR. I'm 10-2 through week 2 and what you do has been a huge help.
Am I thinking about this concept correctly?
Trying to apply this advice to a who to start this week if Gabe Davis is out... Standard scoring, I can choose one of Jahan Dotson, Elijah Moore, or Robert Woods.
Woods is a no go for me unless Davis is ruled out late, and I have to play a Monday night guy.
Elijah Moore’s Vegas line is 50.5 yards, ~+300 for anytime TD. Jets are implied to score only two touchdowns based on the spread and o/u. In terms of target share, our long view on Moore is that he will command a higher than average target share based on past performance and talent, but as you said in stealing signals, his week 1 usage was disappointing given his routes and that Flacco threw 59 times...
Dotson and the WSH offense have many question marks in terms of “input.” We don’t know what the target share will look like here because there’s so many new variables in the offense (new QB, new WRs, Rivera indicating they want to use Gibson more in pass game). Plus there’s the general historic inconsistency of Wentz. Vegas has Dotson at 42.5 yards and ~+200 for anytime TD. WSH is implied to score 3 TDs based on spread and O/U. Also, lions D is trash.
Moore seems to have a higher floor to me based on the inputs. Dotson seemingly has a higher ceiling based on the Vegas projections and the promising week 1 usage.
I’m currently projected to win by 23 points after the Thursday nighter, so Moore seems like the safer choice as there’s seemingly less input volatility with him than Dotson?
Let me know if I’m thinking about that right. Thanks Gretch.
I made a similar decision in my big home league to go with Everett after starting Albert O last week. I considered Hurst as a pivot (Higgins questionable so more targets but they probably won’t need to be pass heavy against DAL) and was very reluctant to rely on Albert O since it unfortunately looks like DEN players have a donkey head coach running things.
And going against my opponent who had Herbert and Mike Will, it felt like a no-brainer since if they have good games then Everett probably will too *or* if they have bad games then maybe he somehow benefits and it won’t kill me if he doesn’t. It will be interesting to see what happens when Keenan comes back but Everett looked really good in this game – the black visor and #7 certainly helps!