Hi Ben, wondering how you approach trading for QBs in 1QB leagues (or if you even do it). I've been sifting through replacement level QBs and would love to upgrade, and have a very deep WR group. The guy who has Herbert also has Lamar, and something like Diontae Johnson for Herbert would be an upgrade to my expected starting lineup - but from a pure player value perspective I'm clearly on the losing end. Wondering how you balance pure player value vs impact to your starting lineup on trades like this?
Hey sorry for the delay on this, Jake. I have a hard time with this too. I think typically you need to overpay to acquire a QB, but you also can't let that cost you a chance to improve your team if the opportunity is there. And I will say this: while QBs are typically overvalued in drafts, once we get into the season and get a feel for how offenses operate, I think the high-end QBs are probably worth quite a bit more than they were coming into the year. Guys like Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson right now — I trust that they are going to continue to smash all season, and that certainly raises their trade value. Herbert is a good example of that, although Diontae Johnson is a tough one to be selling right now. He's more of a buy for me.
Appreciate the response Ben! Really like that idea that top end QBs see their relative value rise from draft to in-season - I think this is the part that wasn't totally clicking for me. Agree on Dionate being a buy - I have an interesting dilemma where Diontae, DJ Moore and Tee Higgins would be the WRs I'd be looking to trade, but I think all those guys are buys right now which means I likely have to overpay even more to make a deal. Maybe the market warms on them in the next week or two and I can get a deal done then.
HI Ben, I have a question about how to value RBs vs WRs in 0.5 PPR, particularly in the context of flex decisions. Obviously I can always look at rankings or projections of analysts I particularly trust, and which players fit in that range will vary a bit with different roster types (e.g. 2 or 3 WRs). But I am more interested in understanding the factors that go into choosing within that range of player. It seems the WR options are often going to be either higher volume/shorter yardage types (maybe Tyler Boyd) or boom/bust big play guys (maybe a Michael Gallup), while RB options are ones with a clear role in a committee (either a goal line guy or the 3rd down pass catcher). Are there particular roles that you find most valuable in 0.5 PPR in general, and in that flex range in particular? Thanks.
In 0.5 it's typically my goal to get a RB in the flex, but that's mostly because they tend to have more TD-scoring potential. This gets back to the DFS analogies, where on FanDuel with their 0.5 scoring it makes a lot more sense to be building with a RB in the flex. It's just a scoring system that leans toward that position and we know RBs who get work have a solid floor and then their ability to get to 15+ if they can score a TD is often stronger than a typical WR as well.
As far as different types of players, I love the high-catch guys who can rack up 10-catch games in PPR (the Boyd example, Keenan Allen types, etc). It's not that difficult for that type of player to hit 20 points even without a TD, and there's a hidden upside to receptions I wrote about years ago at Rotoworld that I think is unfortunately not live on the web anymore. But in 0.5 that high-reception weekly upside is severely capped, so I'm usually leaning toward the high aDOT WRs and their particular type of splash play upside.
Broadly, across scoring formats, guys in the flex discussion aren't great plays anyway or they would be locked in, right? So I wind up prioritizing upside in those spots especially — I don't care about the difference between a 5 or a 12 in my last lineup spot as much as the potential for them to put up 20+ and significantly impact my chances of winning. My other lineup spots are much more likely to have a solid range of floor to ceiling.
But that somewhat contradicts with my earlier comment of focusing on RBs in the flex in 0.5 PPR at least somewhat for floor. And how I'd reconcile that apparent contradiction is where WR frequently has a higher ceiling in full PPR, ceilings in 0.5 PPR are more TD-dependent so the relative ceilings of the two positions are leveled enough that floor becomes a consideration. But this is why I tend to dislike 0.5 and especially non-PPR from a strategy point of view.
Disclaimer that everything is situational and dependent on the players involved, but these are the leans for me all else equal in that flex range.
I'm curious, expanding on your long view, upside approach, how much do you prioritize having elite players? I had a trade offer this week which was pretty heavily in my favor from a value standpoint, but I ultimately ended up turning it down to keep positional advantage. I won't bore you with details, but it would have required me to downgrade from Michael Thomas to Diggs (in retrospect with Thomas's new hamstring injury I regret passing up the chance to cash out now).
My thought was that teams with top-5 players seem to win more championships than those that don't, and since I felt good enough about my depth, downgrading from a top-3 WR to even a top-10 WR seemed like a poor roster construction move. Did I over-value Thomas's upside, or is the tier break between the elites and the near-elites significant enough to factor into long-term upside?
Obviously without knowing specifics I can't really speak on value but I think your logic is sound. In most leagues of typical depth, guys like MT are super valuable because the replacement level is fairly solid throughout the year. I love Diggs and think he's in an incredible spot, but the point about elite players winning leagues is accurate.
Personally, and I've advocated this before, I wish more fantasy leagues used deeper starting lineups *and* deeper benches. It's a much better game played that way, and that's what you see in places like high stakes leagues where there is frequently an extra flex and deep benches. In leagues like that, the impact of an individual player is less pronounced, and the tier drop isn't as great from the elites to the back-of-top-10 guys because the replacement level is much lower, etc.
not that i was asked but we have to remember things change. Michael Thomas is prob still a top 12 fantasy wr ros but we have no guarantee of that. I am pretty sure he will not be getting any 50 yard td bombs from brees. I know mthomas backers love him because of his target domination but we also thought juju would pick right up with his peak 2018 ending. If you could have gone from mthomas to diggs and received someone like rojo for dmont in a 2 for 2 i would have done that in a heartbeat.
Now here are a few trades I made this week in various 25 to 50 dollar money leagues on yahoo pro feel free to flame away
mike davis cmac pollard duke johnson (i prioritize bench rb over wr) for waller fuller rojo dhenderson. Perhaps i am overreacting to rojo and henderson my other rbs are drake sanders hasty other wr are woods and randerson and i am worried about woods in rams offense so i prefer fuller in the wr2 hole long term. my te is jonnu and i had no idea about his injury so now if i want i can use jonnu and waller in a flex some weeks. MY qb is tanneyhill.
In another league i gave up mckinnon and robert woods for metcalf and ravensD. This is a 10 team 2 qb league where i own mahomes big ben minshew wentz drake miles sanders gibson claypool juju ridley fuller higgins mark andrews. If you ask how i got all this it was an auction league done back in june not that you care.
In another league i gave up zeke pollard hockerson for rojo 4net waller.perhaps an overreaction but i want out of the dallas rb situation with their entire o line gone and dalton at qb i just do not see good things happening for zeke ros and i think he falls to like rb 10 to 12 ros with few spike weeks. I want the younger rb with a better defense and better qb situation to help him out. League is half ppr.
Last week in a 16 team superflex league i picked up dalton on waivers with no 1 waiver claim and gave up dalton and gallup for claypool and gaskin. My other qb in this league are big ben cam matt ryan jimmy g. This was an auction also and i never paid up at rb with all 3 raams rb and damien williams being my rb to start the year then when damien opted out i saw josh kelley n waivers and been riding him as my rb2 which is ok for a 16 team league.
Sorry for my long rant.
If you could one thing I would like to see you do each week ben is rank who you value to be your top 20 rb top wr top 10 te top 10 qb from this point forward. Values change of course as we move throughout the season. I deleted my other post because grammatically it was fn awful and I hope this was a bit more comprehensible.
ROS rankings are a good idea I've considered but it's just not something from a time perspective I've been able to get to. Takes a decent amount of time to parse current value for every player every week.
thanks for responding it is not like i would get angry if you were wrong. For instance this might be an overreaction but i value rojo over zeke ros because rojo plays in the better offense with a better o line and better qb. I personally think zeke is going to have a david montgomery 2019 finish to his season. I could be wrong. Crazy how now mixon is down and ajones is dealing with an issue. James conner and chris carson you are up next i am afraid #ihopenot
Hi Ben, wondering how you approach trading for QBs in 1QB leagues (or if you even do it). I've been sifting through replacement level QBs and would love to upgrade, and have a very deep WR group. The guy who has Herbert also has Lamar, and something like Diontae Johnson for Herbert would be an upgrade to my expected starting lineup - but from a pure player value perspective I'm clearly on the losing end. Wondering how you balance pure player value vs impact to your starting lineup on trades like this?
Hey sorry for the delay on this, Jake. I have a hard time with this too. I think typically you need to overpay to acquire a QB, but you also can't let that cost you a chance to improve your team if the opportunity is there. And I will say this: while QBs are typically overvalued in drafts, once we get into the season and get a feel for how offenses operate, I think the high-end QBs are probably worth quite a bit more than they were coming into the year. Guys like Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson right now — I trust that they are going to continue to smash all season, and that certainly raises their trade value. Herbert is a good example of that, although Diontae Johnson is a tough one to be selling right now. He's more of a buy for me.
Appreciate the response Ben! Really like that idea that top end QBs see their relative value rise from draft to in-season - I think this is the part that wasn't totally clicking for me. Agree on Dionate being a buy - I have an interesting dilemma where Diontae, DJ Moore and Tee Higgins would be the WRs I'd be looking to trade, but I think all those guys are buys right now which means I likely have to overpay even more to make a deal. Maybe the market warms on them in the next week or two and I can get a deal done then.
HI Ben, I have a question about how to value RBs vs WRs in 0.5 PPR, particularly in the context of flex decisions. Obviously I can always look at rankings or projections of analysts I particularly trust, and which players fit in that range will vary a bit with different roster types (e.g. 2 or 3 WRs). But I am more interested in understanding the factors that go into choosing within that range of player. It seems the WR options are often going to be either higher volume/shorter yardage types (maybe Tyler Boyd) or boom/bust big play guys (maybe a Michael Gallup), while RB options are ones with a clear role in a committee (either a goal line guy or the 3rd down pass catcher). Are there particular roles that you find most valuable in 0.5 PPR in general, and in that flex range in particular? Thanks.
In 0.5 it's typically my goal to get a RB in the flex, but that's mostly because they tend to have more TD-scoring potential. This gets back to the DFS analogies, where on FanDuel with their 0.5 scoring it makes a lot more sense to be building with a RB in the flex. It's just a scoring system that leans toward that position and we know RBs who get work have a solid floor and then their ability to get to 15+ if they can score a TD is often stronger than a typical WR as well.
As far as different types of players, I love the high-catch guys who can rack up 10-catch games in PPR (the Boyd example, Keenan Allen types, etc). It's not that difficult for that type of player to hit 20 points even without a TD, and there's a hidden upside to receptions I wrote about years ago at Rotoworld that I think is unfortunately not live on the web anymore. But in 0.5 that high-reception weekly upside is severely capped, so I'm usually leaning toward the high aDOT WRs and their particular type of splash play upside.
Broadly, across scoring formats, guys in the flex discussion aren't great plays anyway or they would be locked in, right? So I wind up prioritizing upside in those spots especially — I don't care about the difference between a 5 or a 12 in my last lineup spot as much as the potential for them to put up 20+ and significantly impact my chances of winning. My other lineup spots are much more likely to have a solid range of floor to ceiling.
But that somewhat contradicts with my earlier comment of focusing on RBs in the flex in 0.5 PPR at least somewhat for floor. And how I'd reconcile that apparent contradiction is where WR frequently has a higher ceiling in full PPR, ceilings in 0.5 PPR are more TD-dependent so the relative ceilings of the two positions are leveled enough that floor becomes a consideration. But this is why I tend to dislike 0.5 and especially non-PPR from a strategy point of view.
Disclaimer that everything is situational and dependent on the players involved, but these are the leans for me all else equal in that flex range.
I'm curious, expanding on your long view, upside approach, how much do you prioritize having elite players? I had a trade offer this week which was pretty heavily in my favor from a value standpoint, but I ultimately ended up turning it down to keep positional advantage. I won't bore you with details, but it would have required me to downgrade from Michael Thomas to Diggs (in retrospect with Thomas's new hamstring injury I regret passing up the chance to cash out now).
My thought was that teams with top-5 players seem to win more championships than those that don't, and since I felt good enough about my depth, downgrading from a top-3 WR to even a top-10 WR seemed like a poor roster construction move. Did I over-value Thomas's upside, or is the tier break between the elites and the near-elites significant enough to factor into long-term upside?
Obviously without knowing specifics I can't really speak on value but I think your logic is sound. In most leagues of typical depth, guys like MT are super valuable because the replacement level is fairly solid throughout the year. I love Diggs and think he's in an incredible spot, but the point about elite players winning leagues is accurate.
Personally, and I've advocated this before, I wish more fantasy leagues used deeper starting lineups *and* deeper benches. It's a much better game played that way, and that's what you see in places like high stakes leagues where there is frequently an extra flex and deep benches. In leagues like that, the impact of an individual player is less pronounced, and the tier drop isn't as great from the elites to the back-of-top-10 guys because the replacement level is much lower, etc.
not that i was asked but we have to remember things change. Michael Thomas is prob still a top 12 fantasy wr ros but we have no guarantee of that. I am pretty sure he will not be getting any 50 yard td bombs from brees. I know mthomas backers love him because of his target domination but we also thought juju would pick right up with his peak 2018 ending. If you could have gone from mthomas to diggs and received someone like rojo for dmont in a 2 for 2 i would have done that in a heartbeat.
Now here are a few trades I made this week in various 25 to 50 dollar money leagues on yahoo pro feel free to flame away
mike davis cmac pollard duke johnson (i prioritize bench rb over wr) for waller fuller rojo dhenderson. Perhaps i am overreacting to rojo and henderson my other rbs are drake sanders hasty other wr are woods and randerson and i am worried about woods in rams offense so i prefer fuller in the wr2 hole long term. my te is jonnu and i had no idea about his injury so now if i want i can use jonnu and waller in a flex some weeks. MY qb is tanneyhill.
In another league i gave up mckinnon and robert woods for metcalf and ravensD. This is a 10 team 2 qb league where i own mahomes big ben minshew wentz drake miles sanders gibson claypool juju ridley fuller higgins mark andrews. If you ask how i got all this it was an auction league done back in june not that you care.
In another league i gave up zeke pollard hockerson for rojo 4net waller.perhaps an overreaction but i want out of the dallas rb situation with their entire o line gone and dalton at qb i just do not see good things happening for zeke ros and i think he falls to like rb 10 to 12 ros with few spike weeks. I want the younger rb with a better defense and better qb situation to help him out. League is half ppr.
Last week in a 16 team superflex league i picked up dalton on waivers with no 1 waiver claim and gave up dalton and gallup for claypool and gaskin. My other qb in this league are big ben cam matt ryan jimmy g. This was an auction also and i never paid up at rb with all 3 raams rb and damien williams being my rb to start the year then when damien opted out i saw josh kelley n waivers and been riding him as my rb2 which is ok for a 16 team league.
Sorry for my long rant.
If you could one thing I would like to see you do each week ben is rank who you value to be your top 20 rb top wr top 10 te top 10 qb from this point forward. Values change of course as we move throughout the season. I deleted my other post because grammatically it was fn awful and I hope this was a bit more comprehensible.
ROS rankings are a good idea I've considered but it's just not something from a time perspective I've been able to get to. Takes a decent amount of time to parse current value for every player every week.
thanks for responding it is not like i would get angry if you were wrong. For instance this might be an overreaction but i value rojo over zeke ros because rojo plays in the better offense with a better o line and better qb. I personally think zeke is going to have a david montgomery 2019 finish to his season. I could be wrong. Crazy how now mixon is down and ajones is dealing with an issue. James conner and chris carson you are up next i am afraid #ihopenot