Great stuff Ben. You talk about elite Qbs being more valuable in smaller leagues (10 teams). Where's the line you'd draw for about when you'd draft QB1 vs WR___. Eg in 10tm half ppr, redraft. (QB,RB,TE,WR, 5 flex format).. you'd draft Josh Allen ahead of what WR? I'm trying to calibrate the positions.
My answer to questions like these almost always comes down to the specific league types. You know your league better than I do. A big question is whether people are on top of the trendy rookie WRs like a Xavier Worthy, who I mentioned? Because if that kind of guy always slips in your leagues, I could see taking an elite QB quite high. But it's going to be a moving target depending on the strategy I'm employing in each specific draft. There's no "WR__" answer, as annoying as that may be.
Hey Ben! I have a keeper league-specific question for ya (12-team, half-PPR, 1 QB/2 WR/2 RB/1 TE/2 WR/RB/TE, 8-deep bench).
Hopefully will be helpful to other folks who have a home league with a 1-keeper setup, where each manager can select one player to "keep" the next year. The way the keeper rule works is - if it's the first year you've had the player, you can draft them 2 rounds behind where you got them the year prior (so a 2023 11th rounder in my league, like De'Von Achane, goes in the 9th round). In subsequent years, you continue to divide by 2 the round you got them in - we've never actually seen a player kept for multiple years, because of how quickly the divide by 2 rule strips value (and because my league (including myself) is full of trade-happy morons. Additionally, the player you keep must be on your roster the entire season - you can't drop or trade them, even if they wind up on your roster at the end of the season!
Anyway, the interesting possible edge I'm seeing this year is that there are some players like Trey Benson and Jonathon Brooks who go SUPER late by ADP, but who I imagine profile as good 1st/2nd round bets next year, so much so that I think it probably makes good sense to reach for them both this year. Curious to get your thoughts on them, as well as any other players who you think could similarly make big jumps in ADP b/t this year and next. Of course, this all has to be balanced with drafting to win this year, but does make a compelling case to me for some detours/reaches for elite rookie profiles who have fallen bc they don't have the job yet, or are otherwise unproven. This would mean taking them in the later part of the strong WR window, but also seems very worth it as a way to get a good shot at a 1st/2nd rounder in the 5th next year
Great stuff Ben. You talk about elite Qbs being more valuable in smaller leagues (10 teams). Where's the line you'd draw for about when you'd draft QB1 vs WR___. Eg in 10tm half ppr, redraft. (QB,RB,TE,WR, 5 flex format).. you'd draft Josh Allen ahead of what WR? I'm trying to calibrate the positions.
My answer to questions like these almost always comes down to the specific league types. You know your league better than I do. A big question is whether people are on top of the trendy rookie WRs like a Xavier Worthy, who I mentioned? Because if that kind of guy always slips in your leagues, I could see taking an elite QB quite high. But it's going to be a moving target depending on the strategy I'm employing in each specific draft. There's no "WR__" answer, as annoying as that may be.
Hey Ben! I have a keeper league-specific question for ya (12-team, half-PPR, 1 QB/2 WR/2 RB/1 TE/2 WR/RB/TE, 8-deep bench).
Hopefully will be helpful to other folks who have a home league with a 1-keeper setup, where each manager can select one player to "keep" the next year. The way the keeper rule works is - if it's the first year you've had the player, you can draft them 2 rounds behind where you got them the year prior (so a 2023 11th rounder in my league, like De'Von Achane, goes in the 9th round). In subsequent years, you continue to divide by 2 the round you got them in - we've never actually seen a player kept for multiple years, because of how quickly the divide by 2 rule strips value (and because my league (including myself) is full of trade-happy morons. Additionally, the player you keep must be on your roster the entire season - you can't drop or trade them, even if they wind up on your roster at the end of the season!
Anyway, the interesting possible edge I'm seeing this year is that there are some players like Trey Benson and Jonathon Brooks who go SUPER late by ADP, but who I imagine profile as good 1st/2nd round bets next year, so much so that I think it probably makes good sense to reach for them both this year. Curious to get your thoughts on them, as well as any other players who you think could similarly make big jumps in ADP b/t this year and next. Of course, this all has to be balanced with drafting to win this year, but does make a compelling case to me for some detours/reaches for elite rookie profiles who have fallen bc they don't have the job yet, or are otherwise unproven. This would mean taking them in the later part of the strong WR window, but also seems very worth it as a way to get a good shot at a 1st/2nd rounder in the 5th next year
Love this, Ben! Great post
Whew. Legendary article right here. So, so good.
Fantastic food for thought.