Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC & NFC South
The Signal and Noise for each AFC and NFC South team
You already know what this is. It took me until the middle of August to get done, but last year I released the final of these four mammoth posts on August 27, so can we at least call that improvement?
Couple quick notes. Those of you sending me your league settings after yesterday’s post, I apologize but I’m just not going to get to those. I got another dozen or so, and to be perfectly honest I just can’t read about anymore league types after reading so many yesterday. The idea was to give direct examples of thinking through structure rather than the theoretical stuff I’m often writing about, and hopefully between last week’s and next week’s mailbags, you guys can sift through the answers and apply what fits to your own league.
Also, the charity leagues. I got a lot of interest and we already have at least one league full, possibly two. Sounds like everyone would be in to just donate the full amount, with some great ideas to have the prizes be things like a comped Stealing Signals sub or a free one-on-one draft consult with me next year. I love those ideas and am thinking that will be the plan. Any other fun prizes you’d like to play for that get more of the money to the kids, I’m all ears. If you didn’t click into the Superflex post but might be interested in drafting with me this weekend, be sure to go read the introduction to that post for more details.
It sounds like most are available Saturday night, with a few who can’t do Saturday but can do Sunday, so I’d guess if we get to three leagues, it’ll be two drafts Saturday and one Sunday, or something of that nature. Because of time zone stuff, I might have one that’s like 9 PM ET and one that’s like 11 PM ET for the west coasters who would prefer the evening.
Let’s get to the Signals. We’ve already covered:
The AFC and NFC East divisions, with thoughts on A.J. Brown, how to play the Bills, and why the Giants might be NYC’s more exciting team than the youthful Jets.
The AFC and NFC West divisions, with thoughts on the super important Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos offenses, as well as hype for Trey Lance and Kyler Murray, and the differing impacts on their skill guys.
The AFC and NFC North divisions, with thorough notes on the Bengals’ and Ravens’ expected pass volume, Aaron Rodgers’ new receiving corps, and what I’m expecting the Kevin O’Connell influence to be in Minnesota.
You can also check out my podcast discussions with Michael Leone on the Establish The Edge feed, where we discussed our projections for every team over eight episodes.
Indianapolis Colts
Key Stat: Jonathan Taylor — 43 green zone touches (most for any RB since 2012)
Jonathan Taylor is a clear superstar, and I wrote a ton of words already this offseason about why he maybe shouldn’t be the 1.01, and his situation more or less hasn’t changed. I talked about how his green zone role was massive last year, and while it’s likely to remain massive, the sheer number of GZ touches he got just doesn’t happen in the modern NFL (even accounting for the 17th game). I talked about his big plays, which I also expect to continue, because he’s fantastic. But the main point was that with those elements, he finished at 22.2 PPR points per game, which was the lowest figure for the overall RB1 since 2015 (and in the six seasons between those two years, 13 backs broke that mark, more than two per year, which is to say that in those seasons, 22.2 PPR points per game was typically good for about RB3). So he might need to be even better, despite some pending regression, but there’s one area where he could add points — receiving. Taylor caught 40 of 51 targets last year while Nyheim Hines caught 40 of 57 for fewer yards, and if you add in the explosive plays JT created in the passing game, it might be said Taylor is even better in that area than Hines, even as it’s Hines’ specialty. Matt Ryan should be a positive in this regard, even as Carson Wentz threw to the backs a decent amount, but the recent word from the team has been loud and clear that they don’t want to overwork Taylor, and they want to utilize Hines more, specifically in the passing game. That might cap where Taylor can get as a receiver, though I want to be clear he brings more in that area than guys he’s frequently comped to, like Derrick Henry, who we’ll discuss below. Henry has never caught more than 20 passes in a season; Nick Chubb has one year with more than 20; Taylor had 36 as a rookie and 40 in Year 2, and he’s been very efficient both years. He’s in no way a zero in this area, and he’s a superstar in his prime and I wouldn’t really fault anyone for taking him 1.01.
I’ve been pretty out on Hines just because I have a hard time seeing the role materialize if it means keeping Taylor off the field. The team can talk the talk, but Taylor is so explosive and so obviously their best player that it becomes difficult in reality, especially as the season wears on and winning games takes precedent. Still, the latest discussion of him has me a little more interested, while I’ll be continuing to look for good prices.
Michael Pittman was good last year, seeing a big boost in his TPRR from 15.5% as a rookie up to 22.3% in Year 2. There’s a lot of talk about how Ryan likes to lock into his top targets, but Wentz definitely did that to some degree last year. There’s also limited competition, but Pittman didn’t have much competition last year, either. And he was good last year, finishing WR18 in PPR, but that was also WR27 in points per game and he’s now being drafted like a burgeoning superstar. I guess I just don’t get the price, and while I do like Pittman, I wrote in February’s TPRR piece, “I could see scenarios where he slightly disappoints this ADP expectation and then the market overcorrects and I wind up really liking him in 2023 as like an eighth- or ninth-round pick going into Year 4.” That was when he was a fifth-round pick in the early offseason, and while the team didn’t add much competition since then and arguably improved the QB situation, I’m pretty out in Round 3.
Outside of these guys, there aren’t many Colts being drafted regularly. Rookie Alec Pierce is an upside play as a vertical threat, but his collegiate production profile was questionable, and Frank Reich has been known to rotate WRs a decent amount and they have other intriguing players like Ashton Dulin, who has generated some buzz. Setting aside Reich’s recent comments that the team wants to throw more this year, they will still run a lot, and plays like Pierce and Parris Campbell — who through three years has yet to run more than 120 routes in a season, so we just have no idea who he is at this point — are fairly thin for me on draft day. I see them more as watch list waiver adds, but Campbell is the one that’s probably most draftable at his very late price tag if you’re a truther (given there’s some hope he could be the primary slot guy).
I’m also pretty out on Mo Alie-Cox, and would prefer second-year guy Kylen Granson who should contend with him for targets and has more uncertainty to his profile to potentially be a legit target-earner. But again, I just don’t see the upside in the passing game. We’ll see exciting moments at times, and perhaps flashes that make one or more of these ancillary pieces seem notable, and then they’ll kind of fade as Pittman and primarily the running backs continue to be the focus.
Signal: Team — likely to have some degree of rotation and limited passing game upside behind Michael Pittman
Noise: Jonathan Taylor — 43 green zone touches (most since 2012, due for some regression, but not really a huge reason to fade); Nyheim Hines — talk of a big role and specifically in the passing game, which will probably be true early, but certainly has some fragility to it with Taylor being the offense’s best player and the size of that role being predicated on limiting Taylor’s snaps somewhat
Tennessee Titans
Key Stat: Derrick Henry — 29.7 touches per game (previous career high — 24.8)