Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC South
Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC South
Stroud vs. Richardson, plus can the Jaguars bounce back?
In case you missed it, I wrote a long introduction to this series as its own post, explaining what I think the value of this type of analysis is (spoiler alert: I think it’s very high, or I wouldn’t spend hours studying each roster, then repeat that 32 times).
As I noted in that introduction, I’m just going to throw a bunch of notes at you. I’ve also written before about how much of the data that’s out there has become ubiquitous, and is definitely factored into market valuations. In the past, a bigger part of my value add as an analyst was digging into the data. These days, I believe the interpretations of the data are most valuable, as a long offseason with all these numbers at our fingertips can lead to overconfidence, something we want to avoid at all costs given we know the NFL is pure chaos year to year.
In these pieces, in order to provide the most value and also get through the project, my focus is going to be on how I’m playing the different teams. If there’s ever a question about a stat or concept I loosely reference, and what might back that up, I’d love for you to throw it into the comments. If I say, “I’m buying the stuff about (Player X’s offseason narrative)” and you don’t really know what I’m referring to, please ask!
These pieces are meant to be a baseline before camp starts (I’m behind), and then we use those baselines to adjust to the flurry of news that comes out. Much of my 2024 baseline stuff is going to be based on what I saw and wrote about in 2023, although there is obviously a lot of research I’ve done all offseason, and the data I’ve uncovered or seen elsewhere is certainly going to be referenced here. Additionally, in each of these writeups, I’ll link directly to the offense’s section from my March TPRR pieces, which cover the whole pass-catching group from last year. (Those writeups are very data-heavy, and I’ll reference some of the stuff in those pieces from time to time, but I don’t want these writeups to be too repetitive of those.)
Instead, I’d describe the focus of these as more about the offensive expectations and how that influences the players. You can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Houston Texans
Key Stat: Stefon Diggs — 0.64-0.69 wTPRR for five straight seasons (his 0.69 was good for 8th in the NFL last year)
There’s little I’m more confident in than what C.J. Stroud is going to become as one of the league’s top QBs. Will he definitely be a top-three guy? I wouldn’t go that far, though I do think that’s squarely in the range of outcomes. But there’s so much he did right, including elevating the efficiency of several players, as I wrote about in the TPRR piece. In Year 2, with the same coaching staff and an improved roster thanks to the rookie QB contract window the Texans find themselves in (and aggressively leveraged this offseason), this is a fantasy offense to target. One of the concerns might be how high the various pieces are going in drafts, and whether there will actually be enough volume. A concept I’ve written about before is this idea that as a team is later in its competitive window, they might take the regular season for granted a bit more, knowing their focus is on the playoffs (the Chiefs have clearly reached this point in my opinion, and have acknowledged limiting routes for key players like Travis Kelce as part of that). The flip side of that is teams in the Texans position are right in that range where they might just stretch their legs a little bit and see what they are really capable of. Houston trading a second-round pick for Stefon Diggs and then restructuring him on a one-year deal is evidence of that idea — they later extended Nico Collins, and will have to pay Stroud gobs of money soon enough, so it really does seem like they gave a second-rounder just to have one year of Diggs, though I suppose there are scenarios where they’d bring him back. But in trying to find support for this idea the Texans might throw even more aggressively and be a team to heavily target for fantasy this year, I came to many positive recent examples where a breakout team one year took another bump up in an ensuing season. The Bills in 2021 (the year after Diggs’ first with the team where their pass rate really exploded), the Bengals in 2022, Philadelphia in 2023, both K.C. and Baltimore two years after their young QB won his first MVP — your mileage may vary on some of these, but they are examples of either a bump in play volume or pass rate in a season after the first season the team made noise. Anecdotally, I’d imagine you’d find similar data about teams who acquire WRs like Diggs — the Bills in 2020 certainly took a huge leap forward passing-wise, as did the Eagles in 2022 after acquiring A.J. Brown — where you’d expect more firepower at WR equating to a bump in aggressiveness in play-calling. I don’t think there’s a good way to dig into the data and control for all factors, but I do believe the recent examples are sufficiently positive for lofty team expectations for Houston from an overall passing statistics perspective (both volume and efficiency).
Houston was actually a negative Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) team last year at -2.2%, including some down rookie-year type games from Stroud. Their play volume was above average, but not meaningfully so. In my projections, I’ve pushed their play volume up another notch and also moved them to a meaningfully positive PROE (about +2.7%, though the expected pass rate is estimated based on Vegas win total). At that pass volume, and with Stroud’s YPA basically right in the same range as 2023 (8.1 vs. 8.2 last year), I projected more than 5,000 pass yards, a figure no one hit in 2023 (Mahomes did in 2022). In the current NFL, a 5,000-yard passing season could meaningfully gap the passing numbers for other QBs in a way that mitigates some of the concerns out there about Stroud’s ADP as a dropback passer with limited mobility (those are fair concerns, but essentially I’m saying archetype isn’t the whole game). In that admittedly aggressive projection, I wound up higher for Stroud than Anthony Richardson, who I’ll discuss below, but who tends to go higher because he’s mobile (and mobile QBs do tend to always look solid in projections). That’s entirely do to the size of the gap of their passing projections. Probabilistically, Stroud does have more room to miss my projection, and Richardson likely more room to beat his, but it’s not even close to a decided fact that Stroud can’t outscore Richardson solely due to mobility, which is a nuanced but important point to emphasize.
In my Texans’ TPRR section, and a later piece about the Texans’ passing game where I broke down how Diggs fits in, I talked through what I expect from Nico and Tank Dell. The Cliff’s Notes are that Diggs has never stopped earning volume at an elite level, and I expect him to play a big role here. I’ll be ranking it Nico, Diggs, Tank, but I want (and have been getting) exposure to all three guys. I’m not doing anything with Noah Brown, who is meaningfully behind these three talent-wise, and even if one missed time would be the clear third WR. Dalton Schultz is also likely boxed out of a big receiving line, but I take him in best ball at times as a potential TD-upside play given he’ll run a lot of routes for a TE and I expect Stroud to fairly easily throw for 30+ scores. He’s sort of a high floor, low ceiling type of TE. But as for the top three WRs, price will dictate how I’ll play any, and at the current moment it seems Diggs is the one sliding, with some taking Tank straight up over him. I’m very in on Diggs at those costs, but I’m also solidly in on Nico at a Round 2 cost, and in fact think he’s one of the easiest players to pull up to the Round 1/2 turn on Underdog where it’s very WR heavy, because these crowded WR rooms that are still pricy are always good bets for contingent upside (if any of these three misses time, the other two would clearly get more expensive). In part for that reason, and in part because of his own profile, Tank is one of the better WR bets that’s available more or less right after Diggs is gone (but I would have them in different tiers, personally, because I see a cleaner target ceiling for Diggs). I do have to note both Nico and Tank get a boost for already playing in the offense and with Stroud, whereas Diggs does have to integrate. To the extent I could be considered down on Tank despite that, I’ll note I’m mildly concerned about his ability to hold up given his size and injury last year, and mildly concerned about extrapolating just a 320-route sample from last year against, say, Diggs’ very long body of work.
Joe Mixon is likely to play a ton this year, as the team acquired then extended him, giving him $13 million fully guaranteed. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik recently referred to him as a workhorse when asked about how he looks in early camp, emphasizing that side of things (his work ethic and ability to handle a big load). He’s also not a very efficient player, and I’ve written how efficiency is necessary for elite ceilings at RB, and how you should be prioritizing elite ceilings when you take RBs with any meaningful draft capital. This is a little different in best ball compared to managed redraft leagues, and I’ll admit I’ve taken Mixon in best ball when the price has been right. But he also goes squarely in the RB Dead Zone, which exists for a variety of reasons, not least of which is the opportunity cost there. I’m far more concerned about missing out on WR depth or elite TEs, and thus don’t prioritize Mixon, who I do believe will be a “small win” player (better than a loss!) in formats where his price is in the Round 5 or 6 range (in home leagues where he might go up around Round 3 or 4, he’s an even more difficult pick to make). But to be clear, I do think a workhorse in a great offense is a good thing, and I do expect Mixon to return solid RB results this year.
Behind Mixon, I took some last-round Dameon Pierce in my early best ball drafts, but quickly soured. The concern with him is he doesn’t fit the new rushing scheme installed last year, and he was woefully inefficient last year. Now that the team has brought in Cam Akers — who I think is probably done — I’m basically all the way out on Pierce, as I don’t want to be drafting RB2s with muddied depth chart roles that I don’t even buy into from a talent/efficiency standpoint (that goes for Akers, too).
Signal: C.J. Stroud — lofty ADP for a dropback passer, but some anecdotal reasons to believe the offense could throw more, and at his efficiency he does have requisite passing upside; Texans WRs — all are “small miss, big hit” plays with arguments to go in their ADP ranges but huge contingent upside; Nico Collins — true breakout last year, incumbent advantages with Stroud; Stefon Diggs — consistently earns volume at a high level and is a real threat to lead the team in targets; Tank Dell — strong efficiency and contingent upside bet starting in the third round, depending on format; Joe Mixon — likely to see plenty of work, benefit from offensive environment, but also likely doesn’t have the legendary upside to justify opportunity cost; Dalton Schultz — likely “small miss, small hit” player with routes volume and moderate TD upside
Noise: Dameon Pierce, Cam Akers — No. 2 RB uncertainty and talent concerns make it a situation to monitor likely into the season as a potential waiver wire move, rather than a draft one
Indianapolis Colts
Key Stat: Anthony Richardson — Designed run on 14.5% of total snaps played, 16% rush TD rate
I’ve had a difficult time with the Colts this offseason. I was very impressed with Shane Steichen last year, and tempo is something we talked about in this column last year, and is clearly a focal point for him. High play volume elevates the ceiling for everything, and I do expect the Colts to play fast, but I also expect a much higher run rate than 2023, which does decrease total play volume relative to pace (pace would be the speed at which teams snap the ball, i.e. time left on the play clock) because the clock is always running.
And then I get into the really difficult to parse Anthony Richardson conversation. Richardson made four starts in 2024, leaving two early, and he didn’t reach 50% of the offensive snaps in either. He more or less played two and two-thirds games last year, but there was plenty to like in that small sample, including rushing for 136 yards and 4 TDs. At the same time, both of his injuries came on designed runs, and the concussion in Week 2 felt particularly avoidable where he took a hit that was right in front of him near the goal line on one of those TDs, but he seemed to run into it a little bit rather than avoid. Those injuries worry me a bit, but in his small sample, he posted insanely high scramble and designed run rates, and especially that rush TD rate looks massive. This is a little similar to projecting Trey Lance two years ago, where there’s a small sample, but that small sample suggests there could be massive amounts of rushing. I still contend Lance could have smashed that year (this comp doesn’t inherently have to be negative, as he didn’t play much due to injury), but one of the key elements to the Lance thesis was Kyle Shanahan’s system elevating his passing numbers through well-designed concepts that always created a lot of yards after the catch and thus elevate the yards per attempt of nearly every QB who is under center in San Francisco. That was a really unique thing, and while I really like Steichen, the big concern for Richardson is on that passing side, and it’s hard to come out with a good enough passing line here to see him “break fantasy” as we always say with these dual threats. In my projections, I keep an eye on betting market expectations, using lookahead lines to figure out expected points. The market isn’t exactly low on the Colts’ scoring expectations, but they are slightly below average, and in terms of overall team touchdowns, I do believe a healthy and paid Jonathan Taylor will see a rushing boost due to his mobile QB, and will account for a solid chunk of overall touchdowns. In my projections, Taylor and the backup RBs account for about 12 rush TDs, and the market has the Colts at about 42 expected offensive TDs, which leaves almost exactly 30 for Richardson between passing and rushing; elite dual-threat QB seasons tend to require more, closer to 40, even if they skew toward the often more-valuable rushing scores. Thus, a major question for Richardson at his ADP is whether you believe the Colts will meaningfully beat their market expectations, or if you see upside scenarios where Richardson’s breakout seasons coincide with true MVP conversations and the Colts threatening to win the AFC South. That’s almost certainly fair considering he’s going QB5 — you’d expect this type of lofty ceiling scenario — but it’s worth remembering Richardson only really started for one season in college, didn’t put up huge numbers at that level despite his god-like physical traits, and then barely played last year. He’s still very young, having just turned 22 in May, and was billed as a developmental QB in some respects coming out. We saw flashes of the immense upside last year, and we know this profile is one to target in fantasy, so I’m very into Richardson and am spilling this many words because it’s not easy to be anything but extremely bullish on what his upside could look like in 2024. But his ADP is very lofty in some formats, and there’s real opportunity cost in those ranges when you take an elite QB, and my worry is people see the rushing profile and aren’t accounting for the overall offensive expectations, or being very discerning with his passing range. You absolutely do still need big passing numbers in addition to a big rushing season to smash a QB5 ADP. And with someone like a Jalen Hurts, you may not get massive passing numbers, but they do look better than I would expect from Richardson in most outcomes, and his specific scoring profile is established enough that you’re taking on less floor risk with the lofty QB opportunity cost, which is not nothing. A specific take I’ve seen is Richardson’s mobility means he belongs in the tier with Hurts and Lamar Jackson and the top four — and a tier ahead of Stroud — but despite Richardson having more upside to my projection of him (and Stroud more downside, because of how rushing impacts scoring profiles), I think both sides of that Richardson take overstate his likely range of outcomes, and for me he’ll be in Stroud’s tier. I’m currently slightly underweight on Richardson overall, at about 6% exposure in best ball, but I’m sort of always looking for opportunities to get back even to the field with him. Unlike many of my peers, though, I don’t figure to have a big overweight position here, despite some really enticing team-level expectations around Steichen.
One minor team-level stat is the called pass rate in Richardson starts was a very high 68% in Week 1 (0% PROE as the expected rate was also high), then 62.5% in Week 2 (+4% PROE, Richardson injured early), before Richardson missed Week 3. When Richardson came back in Week 4, the called pass rate was 51.7% (a whopping -21% PROE in another game where the expected rate was high), and then 46% (-12%) in Week 5, which Richardson also left early. Some of this fits what Steichen has said about how the gameplan will change week to week, but it’s also a little concerning to me that the Colts shifted very run heavy after the first injury, and I do think there are some team-level risks here where the market is very bullish on Steichen’s pace and coaching trends, but it’s in the range of outcomes that the 2024 Colts could wind up being one of his less sexy offenses from that perspective.
Part of why the Richardson ceiling case is difficult for me to see is Taylor. People have compared Taylor and Saquon Barkley frequently this year, due to similar ADPs near the top of the second round and similar high-end profiles since their prospect days, but even in a down year last year Taylor posted missed tackles forced and yards after contact numbers (the two better RB efficiency metrics) that were in range of his best seasons, and well ahead of anything Barkley’s posted since 2020 (Barkley has lowkey been very inefficient in the peripherals for years now, as Shawn Siegele recently wrote about). Taylor’s 25, but he’s not so old he can’t have another workhorse season, and the team did finally cave and give him big guaranteed money during the season last year, after the August contract standoff. I’m not high on his receiving outcomes due to Richardson’s mobile profile — we know mobile QBs tend to scramble more than check down and it impacts RB target rates — but I remain high on where his rushing efficiency could land in a peak season, still able to envision him flirting with 2,000 yards after he did so in 2021, and got there in two separate collegiate seasons, coming up just short in his third. Though banged up the past two years, this guy remains a workhorse with a physical profile that backs up truly elite rushing upside, and I’m willing to take some shots on him in the second round this year in a shallow RB class that has bigger landmines I’m looking to avoid. I’m not thrilled with taking an RB that isn’t likely to catch a ton of passes at his cost, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Colts leaned heavily on Taylor in the red zone to protect Richardson a bit, and Taylor pushed to lead the league in rushing TDs. If 28-year-old Gus Edwards can post 13 rush TDs alongside a mobile QB in a season where his peripherals evaporate, Taylor can maybe push 20. This statistical profile does make Taylor a better bet in formats that don’t reward points per reception.
While I do think Taylor plays a ton as a workhorse, it sounds like Trey Sermon has the edge for the No. 2 role in camp. Sermon was with Steichen in Philadelphia in 2022 before coming over to Indy with him last year, and while he’s mostly thought of as a bust in San Francisco, he rushed 35 times in a depth role for the Colts last year and put up a 4.6 YPC. I’m not confident he’d be the clear beneficiary if Taylor were to miss time — Evan Hull has an intriguing profile, too — but he’s likely the small favorite and if he did see big volume would certainly benefit from Richardson’s mobility in some of the ways I’ve mentioned in the Taylor section.
After discussing the rushing TD upside of Richardson and Taylor, plus the market expectations for the offense not being through the roof, it may not shock you to learn I struggled to project big passing TD numbers. I do very much expect Steichen to lean on the dynamism of his two-pronged rushing attack with a high rush rate in the green zone, but I’m sure the Colts will hit on their share of downfield passing scores as teams have to move up to contain the rushing attack. It’s for that reason my highest-drafted Colts’ WR in best ball has been the reasonably priced Adonai Mitchell, a rookie with a downfield profile that pairs well with Richardson, though he’s clearly an easier play in best ball where you don’t have to pick when to start him. Mitchell wasn’t a huge volume-earner in college, but there are some mitigating circumstances (big competition at Georgia, a role at Texas that Quinn Ewers struggled with even when Xavier Worthy was in it the year prior, as Ewers seems to not be a great downfield passer). Mitchell’s athletic profile and scouting reports at least make him worth considering, and we want to be taking shots into the realm of uncertainty with rookies, particularly in redraft where we can cut and move on if things don’t look great. To be clear, Mitchell’s not one of my top-drafted WRs or anything, as I’m mostly down on this passing attack for the receiving weapons from a volume standpoint.
Michael Pittman will go down as one of my biggest fades of 2024, as his price has shot back up after a season with Gardner Minshew where the pass volume numbers were naturally elevated relative to where they’ll be with Richardson’s rushing rates taking away pass attempts (both called pass rate and the rate at which called passes become attempts due to scramble rate). Pittman does get a boost from RPOs, and as I wrote about in the TPRR piece, Indianapolis had the second most pass attempts off RPOs in 2023. But that’s not enough to bridge the gap for me — he already got that boost last year, helping his target share reach career highs, so it’s not like that’s not factored into his cost. Again, he’s just priced up right now relative to the passing volume and his range of probable target shares for 2024.
A big part of the range for Pittman is Josh Downs, who GM Chris Ballard was gushing about as camp opened this week. Downs had a solid rookie year, and a really strong profile, and the more you hear the team talk about him in glowing terms, the clearer it gets that this dude is just a really good football player. I’ve been slow-playing my exposure to him due to concerns he’s not the greatest stylistic fit with Richardson, but my Ship Chasing co-host Pat Kerrane made a great point this week that Downs could maybe cut into those RPO looks from Pittman — the data shows high RPO teams tend to concentrate target share on their No. 1 WRs because of how RPO passes are typically first-read throws, but the Colts might internally not see Pittman as such a clear No. 1 that they would do every single RPO toward him. What if those play designs started splitting those first-read targets up? Downs already earned a solid rookie-year TPRR considering he was giving up these layups to Pittman, and he was impressively efficient after the target, especially when you control for aDOT. I’m going to get some more exposure to Downs on the basis that the gap between Pittman and him is likely not as large as ADP indicates.
I’m pretty out on ancillary pieces here, because again the pass volume concerns are going to make it difficult to bring along low-target-share players. The tight ends have been a big rotation, and with Jelani Woods returning and Will Mallory posting an intriguing yet limited rookie sample, plus Kylen Granson still there, I’d rather play this off the waiver wire if one does consolidate snaps. Mo Alie-Cox is also still there, but has no guaranteed money with nearly $6 million owed if he makes the roster, and I kind of think they are keeping him around as insurance on Woods’ rehab, but where they’ll let him go at the end of camp in a financial decision if Woods and the rest of this group is ready.
Signal: Anthony Richardson — elite dual-threat and rushing upside, some concern around whether the passing numbers can support the ceiling necessary to justify the opportunity cost at a QB5 ADP; Jonathan Taylor — peripherals still solid last year, should benefit in rushing efficiency, potential for lofty TD numbers, but receiving is a mild concern; Josh Downs — intriguing rookie year and probably just a good player worth taking some swings at with a depressed ADP; Adonai Mitchell — non-elite profile but high-aDOT WR who fits with Richardson’s skill set and could be a splash guy in best ball formats
Noise: Colts — fast pace (it’s not really “noise,” but a high run rate should keep this much-discussed stat from translating to a massive play volume number, and I probably see more scenarios Steichen gets a little more conservative relative to past trends than the market seems to); Michael Pittman — 156 targets last year (came with a different QB, and the offense will project for fewer targets, also his career-high 29% market share could easily be threatened this year; both the size of the pie and his slice are threatened)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Stat: Trevor Lawrence — 328 rush yards, 4 rush TD per 17 games, but a career high of only 25 pass TDs in a season