Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC South
The Signal and Noise for each NFC South team
For as much as I wrote in the AFC South piece I sent out recently, I’m not sure I did a great job of making the point I wanted to on Treylon Burks. Essentially, I think the way you view him pre- and post-DeAndre Hopkins signing is a fascinating look at how you view players overall.
In either case, I think profile-based drafters see Burks as a Year 2 bet with enough available opportunity to be a nice hit at his modest cost if he’s good enough. That’s the key — the bet is on talent, and him earning a role and impacting the offensive expectations positively because he’s living up to a profile that suggests he can be a difference-making WR at the NFL level.
For projections-based drafters, the pre-Hopkins world was far more favorable. In that set-up, even those people could see a real path for Burks to consolidate No. 1 volume, whereas that gets trickier after Hopkins signs. And you see the immediate reactions — people were quick to discuss how this signing impacts Burks especially. I’m not trying to call specific analysts out because that’s just such an engrained way to think about player value in the fantasy football community, which is frankly still pretty young overall with just like 25ish years of predictions and results — probably not enough of a sample for people to really question the whole foundation of how to think about things, despite that pretty obviously being necessary (and more or less the premise of this whole newsletter).
Anyway, thinking about Burks pre-Hopkins and Burks post-Hopkins — and what different types of analysts/drafters would see in his profile in both instances — is a really good case study into the drafting market. And I do think projections serve their purpose, and there’s a bit of a blend here, but the key point for me here is for the most part the market overplays them. My immediate reaction to this situation was the shift in perception for Burks was almost certainly going to exceed what an efficient shift would look like (i.e. an efficient shift is not nonexistent, but it’s a lot closer to nonexistent than the market will think).
Alright, let’s jump to the Offseason Stealing Signals for the NFC South. So far we’ve hit:
High no-huddle rates and potential play volume bumps in the NFC East
Exciting up-and-coming offenses and several late-round TE plays in the AFC East
The impact of rookie QBs including the fascinating Colts in the AFC South
As always, I went over the receiving weapons on a team-by-team basis in my TPRR looks earlier this offseason, and those are still very relevant pieces that I myself circle back on quite often. I’ll reference some of that stuff from time to time, but I’m not going to rehash all of those two posts here. If these posts ever feel a little light on pass-catching data, that’s why.
And you can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Atlanta Falcons
Key Stat: Kyle Pitts — 64.9% catchable target rate (second lowest among 169 WRs and TEs with 150+ routes, per Fantasy Points Data)
Unless this is the first time you’ve read me writing about the Falcons, you know how low their 24.4 pass attempts per game were last year. The pass volume stuff — and how Kyle Pitts’ and Drake London’s elite TPRR figures play into it, including with respect to RPOs — is something I’ve already written about a ton. I just realized I can link to a certain section from a prior piece so this will take you right to what I wrote about Atlanta in the TPRR piece, which includes more thoughts on this. An important part of that impassioned defense of the Pitts 2022 bet was it does need to be acknowledged that his after-the-target efficiency cratered from his strong rookie year (yardage-wise; he famously only caught one TD as a rookie). Some of Pitts’ after-the-target efficiency issues relate to catchable target rate, but there were still issues here even when controlling for that (for example, PFF removes very uncatchable targets, which brings Pitts’ YPT up to 6.4 there from 6.0 on Pro Football Reference, but 6.4 and 6.0 are both substantial dips from his 9+ on both sites as a rookie). Some of the top TEs with routes concerns — Mark Andrews and George Kittle are the immediate ones that come to mind — have consistently shown us elite efficiency, so we can’t ignore the negative data point on Pitts. That said, it’s perhaps the only negative thing I can cite, as the pass volume is probably due for some regression, and we do have the promising rookie year efficiency, impressive target-earning, and a strong collegiate track record for a TE who is basically an oversized WR both in terms of his athleticism/skill set and alignment (he was only inline 25.6% of the time last year, and the addition of Jonnu Smith and a really weak WR room after London probably keeps that 25% range as the ceiling for how much traditional TE Pitts will play). Oh, and he’s still only 22 years old until October. I was in on Mark Andrews in 2020, and then in 2021 he got cheaper and I didn’t really buy back in as hard and more or less the exact thesis I laid out in 2020 hit in 2021. I’m definitely pattern matching, but this is absolutely that. Pitts’ upside remains extremely high, risks acknowledged, and the 2023 price provides substantial leeway for a floor season to not kill you, while making a potential hit a legitimate league-winning outcome. I do think the market will wake up and he’ll rise a little, but even Pitts’ fans don’t want to be so exposed to him again, so we might get sixth- and seventh-round prices right up through August, which would frankly be ridiculous.
To be clear, I’m definitely wary of the pass volume. And it’s important to acknowledge what’s possible on the disastrous end. But the QB change should be a positive, and anyway you slice it, 24.4 attempts per game would likely be below a 2023 median even if there wasn’t a QB change and Marcus Mariota was under center again. That’s just an extremely low figure, reached due to a variety of circumstances in a pretty small sample of 17 games. They could add five pass attempts per game — a significant amount — and it would have still put them bottom five in 2022 (and would likely again in 2023, because sub-30 attempts typically is bottom five every year). For what it’s worth, Ridder averaged 28.75 in his four 2022 starts, the first four of his career, in part because designed runs fell way off — Mariota averaged .164 per dropback while Ridder was at .037.
London is a trickier bet, because while his TPRR profile was also strong, and he was even a bit more efficient than Pitts in 2022, the market is higher on him. It’s pretty hard to justify that, given the floor and ceiling for London is quite a bit higher at WR. We saw last season that Travis Kelce out-scored the rest of the TE position by more than 100 PPR points; he would have been WR5 if we jammed the positions together, while the TE2 T.J. Hockenson would have been WR23. In other words, if London and Pitts have identical 250-point seasons — strong outcomes! — London will be very good but not a real difference-maker (that’s about what Amari Cooper did last year), while Pitts would be a top-three TE almost any year (and if it’s like 2022, he would be the TE2 easily). Also, Pitts was out-targeting London at the time of his injury, while London’s consolidation of the targets was stronger later on, with Pitts off the field. I like London’s profile quite a bit, and in a vacuum I’m in on him as a Year 2 WR, so I’ve still been taking him some to make sure I’m not full fading him. But it’s pretty clear that if you buy my tale that the Pitts concerns are almost all about the offense, you should be much higher on Pitts at his cost than London a couple of rounds earlier. And again, I am wary of the Atlanta passing game. So I’ve actually traded London in dynasty this offseason — despite really liking the player and thinking he’ll be a good WR for years to come — because I do believe he’s overvalued in the redraft market right now relative to his most likely 2023 production and subsequent 2024 valuation. And I’m probably going to be underweight on him in redraft.
But if either of those youngsters hits on their compelling upside profiles, Desmond Ridder is pretty easily a smash very late best ball pick. In traditional one-QB redraft leagues, he probably doesn’t offer enough upside in this offense to be anything more than like a Plan C (in the sense that in best ball or SuperFlex, he’s more like a compelling Plan B than a Plan A). He’ll probably offer some mobility, and the talent around him should help elevate his passing stats if he has the ability. But certainly there are question marks about his actual upside as a real NFL quarterback, and the passing volume will probably never be enough to propel him up near the elite QBs even in the most optimistic of outcomes.
It’s pretty sad I’m only now circling around to Bijan Robinson, especially because the Falcons’ decision to draft him eighth overall plays into the pass rate expectations. Bijan’s profile does include strong receiving chops — he’s quite simply an elite prospect — but the way the Falcons play and Arthur Smith coaches, it’s hard not to see the move as one that will keep the focus squarely on the rushing attack. A tricky thing here is Tyler Allgeier was very good as a runner last year. That can play out a few ways. The Breece Hall and Michael Carter situation from 2022 is a very pro-Bijan one, where not only was Hall just an immediate difference-maker, but Carter regressed in Year 2 and showed why he was a lesser prospect. Allgeier is by no means destined to do the same, but it’s a reminder that on a longer timeline, Bijan is just a far superior prospect. Alternately, Smith could use Allgeier as a way to keep Bijan fresh through his rookie season, making this more of a split than we’d like to see. Complicated that path is Cordarrelle Patterson, who is still on the roster and will almost certainly be active on gamedays even at his advanced age due to his return role. The Falcons obviously like Patterson, and if he’s mixing in for 5-7 carries per game, and then Allgeier is getting his, you can start to see where Bijan’s share of the overall work might be closer to 60% than a say 75%-plus share we’d prefer for a first-round RB. And yet, the overall RB pie should be quite large, and part of Allgeier’s and Patterson’s successes in this offense are a reminder that Arthur Smith can design a rushing attack. Something I wrote about Hall last year was he’s the exact type of player that I will project worse than where I’d be willing to draft him, because it’s very difficult to project how the upside scenario of him being an immediate star would tilt the whole offense his direction as a baseline case. But the same is absolutely true for Bijan, where I’ve pushed my projection and gotten him to come in as my RB7 in PPR, but I’m taking him as my RB3 even if there are some questions about projectable volume. What those questions mean is I won’t be quite as heavy on Bijan as I might a similar RB prospect, not that I will be fading him. A big part of that caution is his price point, where he pretty much has to define the season to pay off. In the first round, he could be very good but the Falcons’ offense could hold him back enough to keep him from paying off, so I will exercise some caution.
As for Allgeier and Patterson, I’ve been having a hard time with Allgeier because I think he’s squeezed from both sides — I’m not even sure how big his role as a handcuff would get if Bijan were to miss time, because of the presence of Patterson. And if Bijan stays healthy you’re talking about two paths to Allgeier not having any standalone value — Bijan consolidating too much work or Patterson cutting too far into the work that Bijan doesn’t consolidate (in a 60% RB share kind of Bijan season, where the remaining 40% is split something like 25/15). That’s probably a pessimistic view on Allgeier, and part of my Patterson optimism is he provides the flexibility to line up at WR (which would be less of a threat to Allgeier obviously), something Patterson did less of in 2022 than his big 2021. Arthur Smith talked up Patterson’s versatility already this offseason, calling him “a big part of our offense” and acknowledging how his role was different in 2021 than 2022, saying it was “by necessity last year he was more traditionally a running back,” implying the addition of Bijan opens up Patterson to do more of the 2021 stuff. Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller are your WR2 options here, which increases my optimism for how much Patterson could line up out wide (as well as Pitts within his range of usage outcomes, for that matter). Those positive notes aside, in 2021 Patterson was pretty clearly one of the most talented players in an offense that didn’t have the playmakers they now do (and he’s now two years older at 32). I’ve drafted too much Patterson in the last round of best ball drafts when I’ve structured teams to be light at RB early, where the possibility of a potential spike week role in a Round 18 RB is pretty enticing. But I don’t think it’s as straightforward as Smith’s quotes, and I certainly like Patterson less in managed as I expect his usable weeks to be difficult to predict (my concern about Allgeier on predicting his productive weeks is similar, and then his cost is obviously higher as well, which is mostly what makes the pick a difficult one, because I do buy Allgeier is a talented backup).
Hollins is probably a decent bet to fill the Olamide Zaccheaus role from last year, with Miller looking like this year’s Damiere Byrd in the offense. That’s probably too simplistic, but the point is more to say there’s not much upside for either. Hollins had a career year last year with Vegas, but that was due to an easy career high in routes run (605 vs. previous high of 222), not some skill improvement, and he’ll turn 30 this season.
Signal: Kyle Pitts — very positive target-earning traits, poor efficiency but with poor target quality, plenty of reason to buy back in on a 22-year-old now going several rounds cheaper; Desmond Ridder — viable very late QB option in best ball or SuperFlex, less of a draft option in single-QB managed; Cordarrelle Patterson — likely to be involved in a hybrid way, lining up at WR some, but is now 32 and his playmaking less necessary to the offense compared to 2021, given the weapons they’ve amassed since
Noise: Bijan Robinson — my projection for him (classic case of not being able to project the shape of a real hit, but he’s still worth chasing if with some caution); Falcons — 2022 pass volume (the low end outcomes are scary, but we’re talking how much regression more so than whether there will be regression at all in something like 90% of potential 2023 outcomes)
Carolina Panthers
Key Stat: Adam Thielen — 15.3% TPRR, 1.06 YPRR (previous five year lows — 19.3%, 1.63)
This is another one of those teams where there’s not much to go on, similar to what I recently wrote about the Texans, but even more so. With the Panthers this season, we are expecting a new coach, starting QB, lead RB, top two WRs, and TE. A lot of the depth pieces remain in place, but they now have different structures around them.
Starting at the top, I’ve always admired Frank Reich for fitting tendencies to his offense and the players he has. I think he’s a good coach in that way. I do think as this season evolves, Reich is the kind of coach that could put more and more on Bryce Young’s plate, such that the Panthers might be kind of fun late. That’s predicated on Young playing well and being able to handle it, but I like that bet and he profiles like a guy who can have a quick impact. But I think early, we’re looking at a pretty conservative and forgettable offense. Reich’s teams in Indianapolis always had the potential for pretty low PROEs, and I do expect this team to lean run heavy for the season.
Miles Sanders is a tough click for me as a guy who leaves an incredible rushing environment both in terms of offensive line and QB mobility — and who thrived on that — and enters a more difficult situation. One potential positive is Reich was in Philadelphia under Doug Pederson for a couple seasons before heading to Indianapolis, and while there wasn’t overlap (Reich started in Indy in 2018, while Sanders was drafted in 2019 then played under Pederson for two years), there might be some scheme familiarity there. But every time I see a stat like this, I worry he was a product of a great rushing environment.
Sanders is probably due for a bump in receiving now that he’s outside the Philly offense, but it’s worth noting he’s been pretty poor in terms of receiving efficiency for three years running now after a promising rookie season. Ultimately, this looks like the 2023 version of a Dead Zone back, where he’s a bit cheaper so the bet is a bit more palatable, but the market is telling you they are not buying anything other than projected volume, and the market has tended to be right on the upside of this type of player over a long timeline. He could still be a small win in a best ball sense, but the upside aspect is key.
