Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC West
The Signal and Noise for each NFC West team
I saw a couple good pieces of content on the Lions’ backfield split on Twitter recently, and it made me realize that for all I wrote about that situation from a Team HVT slant, I didn’t hit on everything I wanted to in terms of expectations. First of all, Hayden Winks hit on the run scheme fit for Montgomery on an Underdog Fantasy stream, and then Sam Sherman shared an Athletic camp blurb about how the duo are viewed as “co-starters” and the snaps in the backfield could be split.
Those two notes I think fit really well with how I’m projecting the backfield, which as I emphasized in the NFC North piece includes a really high floor and ceiling expectation for Jahmyr Gibbs’ receiving. David Montgomery fitting the run scheme better probably gives him first crack at green zone work, which is very notable for him, but it also pushes him toward more low-value touches since the team is definitely not going to just sit Gibbs after taking him 12th overall. In other words, one outcome would have been playing them 50/50 and both guys had a similar touch mix between rushes and receiving work; we appear headed for a 50/50 where Gibbs is playing on a higher percentage of receiving snaps and Montgomery is leading in touches but his profile includes more low-value touches, though in this offense he should still get plenty of HVT and not be a total TRAP back.
I still like both, as I detailed in my writeup. The other note I forgot to hit on from my projections was in looking at the past Lions’ rushing shares, and particularly how Jamaal Williams easily out-carried D’Andre Swift in 2022 (262 to 99, Swift only played 14 games), it was notable to see that Swift had nearly the same number of rushes as Williams in 2021 (153 to 151, both played 13 games), and in 2020 Swift also had a much higher rush share/rate of attempts per game relative to 2022 (Swift had 114 in 13 games while Adrian Peterson led the team in rush attempts, giving him 8.8 rushes per game as a rookie, 11.6 in Year 2, and then only 7.1 last year). So while I think some are looking at 2022 and putting Montgomery into the Williams role and Gibbs into the Swift role, Swift’s first couple years with Detroit — before he started to wear out his welcome as unreliable — featured him playing a ton on passing downs but also rushing quite a bit more than in 2022, and I think that details a bit more rushing upside for Gibbs than the market (which is naturally going to focus too heavily on 2022 outcomes) maybe expects.
All of which is just to say I remain very high on Gibbs even when I see stuff like Hayden’s great breakdown of the rushing scheme and Montgomery’s fit. That’s all great data, but in terms of how it plays in PPR and even half PPR like Underdog’s scoring, it makes me optimistic that Gibbs will have a substantial receiving role, and his profile is one where big efficiency upside is very much in the range. And if you picked RBs in fantasy based entirely on receiving and efficiency upside, I think you’d do a pretty good job relative to a market that overvalues role certainty and total touches (i.e. overvalues low-value rush attempts).
Alright, let’s get to the NFC West. I went over the receiving weapons on a team-by-team basis in my TPRR looks earlier this offseason, and those are still very relevant pieces that I myself circle back on quite often. I’ll reference some of that stuff in these pieces from time to time, but you can find more information there on receiving weapons.
And you can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Arizona Cardinals
Key Stat: Cardinals — over/under 4.5 wins at DraftKings (two wins lower than any other team, with juice on the under)
The big story with the Cardinals starts at QB, where Kyler Murray’s health and length of recovery is unknown. The markets think Arizona will tank this year, but whenever I see conversation about Arizona getting into the sweepstakes for Caleb Williams, I’m reminded that Kyler signed a big deal just last year that would leave the Cardinals with over $45 million in dead money if they decided to move on next offseason. They are pretty committed to him, it seems. Assuming Kyler does play this year, there’s a big question with the coaching change whether the Cardinals will continue to play up tempo and out of heavy shotgun formations, or the offense might look different. New head coach Jonathan Gannon was the Eagles’ defensive coordinator, so there’s some potential he’ll bring over some of the principles from Philadelphia and a successful mobile QB offense, but new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing comes from Cleveland where they ran a different offense. And given Kyler’s knee rehab, I wouldn’t expect a shift toward RPOs and more designed QB runs, if it’s going to happen, to take place in 2023. So then it’s a vanilla offense when Kyler returns? Early in the offseason, I thought of Kyler as a cheap way to access QB ceiling in best ball builds, but not long after I quickly started to believe he’s a red herring, as a guy who likely won’t run as much while completing his rehab this year, and is dealing with learning a new offense so likely won’t have huge passing numbers, and on a team where the markets are solidly out on their potential. The idea with the markets seems to be that the Cardinals could start so poorly that Kyler’s return could get pushed back until very late in the year, which honestly makes sense given their Week 1 QB battle is between Colt McCoy and fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune. I guess the Caleb Williams stuff might not be so crazy, honestly; it would be a similar outcome to the Bears landing there this year, and the Cardinals could obviously make a similar decision and trade out (or just eat Kyler’s dead money which I guess that could make sense, too, if Williams is truly that high level of a prospect).
Anyway, this is not an offensive situation to get excited about. But they should have to throw, and with DeAndre Hopkins moving on, there’s at least some target upside. Marquise Brown has a path to dominating targets, and is a boring but viable mid-round pick. Rondale Moore should get plenty of playing time, and I’m willing to be back in on him as one of the few profiles I can talk myself into some upside for, outside the WR Window. Trey McBride really struggled on a per-route basis, which was especially notable given Zach Ertz had been pretty solid at earning volume as the main TE before getting hurt. I was optimistic when McBride’s routes were scheduled to tick up, and they did rise considerably, but he didn’t really take advantage. I’m willing to mix in some McBride very late based on his college profile and the lack of clear top WR targets, which can be a decent indicator of TE upside. If Ertz fades at all as an older TE, McBride could be a guy who comes on during the season and has some upside late — ultimately, that’s kind of the argument for the whole passing game, that if Kyler does play down the stretch, or even returns earlier than expected in the first half of the year, these guys could be late-season producers. If you buy that, in a lot of casual leagues you can plan to just try to acquire someone like McBride in-season.
Rookie Michael Wilson wasn’t a prospect I really liked, but he’s been getting camp buzz. Greg Dortch is a depth option that if Rondale doesn’t break out, could step into a target-earning role. A wild Dortch stat is he had 9+ targets in five different games last year, and then had 14 total targets in all the other games combined. If the four names in the previous bullet don’t really hit big, Wilson and Dortch could be additional waiver options in-season. Again, this doesn’t look like an offense to be very exposed to in draft season, but rather one to consider adding from off waivers during the season if there are any promising signs.
James Conner is in line for a ton of work, but the big question is for a team that is projected to score so few points, what does his profile look like without the big TD rates he’s carried the past couple seasons? And then what about his general efficiency both as a player and in an offense with offensive line issues, when he’s a 28-year-old? Honestly, enough of the concerns are baked in at his price that I can understand why there are people who really like the play, especially as an early-season volume grab in a RB group that otherwise has upside options for later in the year — the idea would be that Conner’s floor is at least a few weeks of pure volume, with the potential for a whole season of volume and maybe there’s a big surprise with his production. I’m not really buying that, because even though his cost feels really light for the number of projected RB touches we’re talking about, it’s still a range of drafts with real opportunity cost where you’d almost certainly prefer another profile (the tricky part is the other profiles are probably riskier, especially early in the year, and then when you make a riskier move and it doesn’t work, you can wind up wishing you’d taken the high floor because that was better, but the bet only really works when you get a Josh Jacobs runout, and age- and offense-related stuff suggests that’s unlikely here).
This would feel like a reasonable spot to bet into a handcuff, except the upside isn’t necessarily there. Plus, Keaontay Ingram didn’t do a ton last year, then got banged up in camp already, and the team brought in Marlon Mack and also have Corey Clement as another option. I’m not even sure who I’d prioritize there.
Signal: Kyler Murray — likely a poor pick despite an upside QB profile and cheap ADP, as markets are very down on this offense, and Murray should see a decline in rushing immediately after his return; Rondale Moore — decent profile outside the WR Window to get some exposure to
Noise: Cardinals — some degree of betting into volume team-wide (you’re either acknowledging the market’s significant pessimism, making that volume less valuable than volume in almost any other offense, or you’re betting on the Cardinals as a team to not be bottom of the barrel, to some extent)
Los Angeles Rams
Key Stat: Cooper Kupp — 28.1% TPRR (30.2% in historic 2021, 22.3% in career prior to 2021); 10.9 targets per game (11.2 in 2021)
The Rams are a bit misunderstood, in my opinion. There’s some real implosion risk here, although I think the market is maybe overplaying that, in part because it’s essentially what we saw last year. They moved on from Jalen Ramsey and some key pieces as they start to unwind the all-in push for a Super Bowl that started a few years ago, but Sean McVay is still a good coach, and the idea from some seems to be that these guys are just comfortable with the underperformance last year and are going to be happy to do it again, as opposed to them sort of having something to prove after a Super Bowl hangover season and they maybe bounce back a bit. It’s often useful to think about NFL teams over multiple years, and what their motivations are — that can help, for example, explain the Super Bowl hangover as a concept. This sport requires so much preparation and focus that there’s a reason we hear about guys being in the best shape of their lives every year — don’t get me wrong, those notes aren’t relevant in the specific situations, but hypothetically you understand how guys that are at peak performance or coaches that are extra motivated might be the big surprises in a given season. (Their actual capabilities still matter, obviously; you can’t will your way to skill or acumen.) Anyway, I’m not buying that Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are more or less just going to be OK with their careers being over, which is the premise of some of these takes. Maybe Stafford is physically unable to play anymore, and obviously Kupp’s hamstring issue at camp — which appears minor — is not a great start for him. But for those two players, they are arguably both Hall of Fame fringe cases, where another big year or two matters for their legacies. And before injuries derailed their 2022 seasons, they had more or less picked up right where they left off after their incredible 2021 season.