Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC West
Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC West
Trey McBride, Puka Nacua, and being in on Seattle's system
The plan was to write these shorter and more concise, but I struggled at that, and then they’ve had to take a back seat a bit. But I still need to get them all out, to help with those player-specific questions I keep getting. Today, I’ll talk about why the Cardinals and Seahawks offenses intrigue me as upside plays, as well as discuss the concentrated and clearly fantasy-friendly offenses in S.F. and L.A.
I wrote a long introduction to the value I see in this series as its own post, and a bit more intro stuff in Part 1 on the AFC South. Keep in mind that these are more July and early August posts, based around offseason research largely through my projection process, and meant to be foundational before August news shakes things up. I’ll obviously mention where August news has changed my opinions, where relevant.
One key resource I’ll link to for each team is my March TPRR writeups, which cover the whole pass-catching group from last year. I’ll reference stuff from there from time to time.
So far we’ve hit:
Stroud, Richardson, and another QB I’m on in the AFC South
The perfect setup for the Falcons and Zero RB targets in the NFC South
Broncos’ RB receiving, Chiefs’ passing game, and the AFC West
You can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Arizona Cardinals
Key Stat: Trey McBride — 144-112-1114-5 pace from Week 8 on (clear role change that week, he started and played 82% snaps after 53% the week prior, Ertz was traded)
When I did my Cardinals projection, I had a tough time landing on few enough touchdowns to match the market expectation. There were a few teams like this, but not as many as you’d think, and in the case of Arizona, I nuked some TD rates but left the process feeling like they were actually pretty likely to outperform my final projections, and be one of the surprise teams this year. Kyler Murray gets a bad rap as a guy who is somehow aloof when this dude is probably one of the most competitive guys in the NFL. He was drafted in multiple sports, has put up monster numbers his whole life — as a Texas high school legend, then in posting some of the most efficient passing numbers in NCAA history while at Oklahoma, and even in stints in the NFL — and I’m of the mind people are at this point sleeping on what he is. It’s been a while, because in 2021 he sprained his knee and derailed what was an excellent season up to that point, then in 2022 he tore his ACL, and in 2023 he was of course still rehabbing. But if you want to know what his ceiling looks like, look back at 2020 and especially that early 2021 stretch, where he was in the MVP discussion before the knee sprain. And now with a new coaching staff for the first time — OC Drew Petzing did an incredible job with a couple different QBs last year, in my opinion, and could be a catalyst in a way Kliff Kingsbury wasn’t — I still see Kyler as a real upside QB swing that’s a clear target for me. Note that he just turned 27 here in August.
I’ve done nothing but talk up Trey McBride all offseason, and you can read about it in the TPRR piece linked above. A quick note is his TPRR, YPT, and thus YPRR were all solidly better than Sam LaPorta’s, and while he took a year and a half to really get there and probably doesn’t have quite the long-term floor LaPorta does, I’m very into the setup for McBride’s volume this year. In Week 8, McBride got the start, and his snaps jumped to 82% from 53% the week prior, and there was a clear role change from that point forward (he’d not played more than 60% prior to Week 8, then Zach Ertz was traded and his season low after Week 8 was 69%). From Week 8 on, McBride paced for 144 targets and 112 receptions, much of it with Murray. One big thing on McBride is he does have a lower aDOT, but he’s always been praised for having elite hands, and that both shows on film and in the stats, where his 74% and 76% catch rates so far in his career make him a PPR monster). The way he hits looks a lot like how T.J. Hockenson has worked off of Justin Jefferson.
To that point, I don’t think McBride and Marvin Harrison upside cases are mutually exclusive. That said, I do think Harrison is a bit overvalued; rookies — even ones that immediately hit — don’t tend to get the type of volume Harrison would need to justify his pricing. I addressed that in the TPRR piece, as well, and the comp to Ja’Marr Chase’s and Justin Jefferson’s rookie years remains an important one for me with Harrison. I do have some best ball exposure to Harrison, and I still have him ranked aggressively and not listed as a Fade because I could see him go in a range in home drafts where he makes sense. But in the places where he’s still an early Round 2 pick, and that price is justified because of the potential for back-weighted production, I just want to drive home that the other WRs who go around him project for far more full-season volume and the same type of late-season production. I think people view “back-weighted production” as if two WRs are always going to score the same, but one will score more late, when Harrison is now priced in a range where the other WRs around him have upside cases to score just like his upside cases down the stretch, but also do that from Week 1 on. So instead of it being like 100 hypothetical “points” where one WR scores 50 in the first half and 50 in the second half, but Harrison scores 30 in the first half and 70 in the second half, it’s instead 50 in each half for the other WRs, and 30 in the first half and 50 in the second half for Harrison’s profile, which is the “back-weighted” element but it only adds up to 80 total. That’s not to say Harrison can’t hit, but at an early Round 2 price, I do believe a lot of his value is priced out. How I’m wrong is if he really does have that 70 in the second half, which is possible, but I also think the guys going in early Round 2 have that 70 second half in them as well. This is the loftiest we’ve ever seen a rookie WR go, and I do think we’ve jumped the shark just a bit. For comparison, Jefferson had 125 targets and Chase 128 in their smash rookie seasons, and neither had a mobile QB. I did project Harrison for more targets than that (135), and more for McBride as well, but if you made me be super honest with you, I’d predict McBride to lead the team, in part because of that low aDOT role. Again, Harrison still has upside, but I’m on a bit of a fade of him at a top-15 overall price. None of this is meant to argue Harrison isn’t a great prospect, because I do expect he’ll be fantastic.
James Conner turned 29 in May, which is concerning, but he’s also coming off his first 5.0 YPC season, with a career high in missed tackles forced per touch and also yards after contact per attempt. He was legit just really good last year, helping him to his first ever 1,000-yard season. With aging players, you have to be concerned, but I get worried the peripherals start declining, and I’m less concerned when it’s someone like this where he’s maybe just in his prime at a later age.
Emari Demercado had a receiving role, with only 58 rush attempts but 30 targets. He’s made some camp buzz, which pushes Trey Benson into a tough spot. I thought Benson looked OK in Preseason Week 1, but he doesn’t have workhorse credentials in college, and might be pigeon-holed into a two-down role if Conner does miss time. He’s your classic young back behind an aging starter, but it does sound like Conner’s the clear No. 1, and while Conner has never stayed healthy for a full season, the question of what Benson’s weekly upside would look like in non-Conner games is worrisome enough to move him down a bit. He could be a bit of a roster-clogger without as much handcuff upside as it seems, if the hype on Demercado is accurate.
Of the secondary WRs, Michael Wilson is the most intriguing to me, and I had a note I got more interested in him doing the projections, because of his rookie-year efficiency. In his rookie year, he earned decent targets at a high aDOT, and was efficient on them. That’s another positive element to the offense, although I question whether Wilson will truly breakout with the top two guys in the passing game looking like such studs. Zay Jones is also a threat to some of the higher-aDOT stuff, while Greg Dortch looks likely to play in the slot a decent amount. Kyler famously said Dortch would be something like a top-five WR if he was 6-4, but he’s of course not. He has a very weird profile where he’s racked up a ton of volume in certain games in his career — six games with 9+ targets — but has at other times been completely absent despite playing a lot, and his overall TPRR and target-earning profile isn’t that impressive. I’ve mixed him into best ball builds but don’t have him as a managed-league target.
Signal: Kyler Murray — some post-hype upside for a guy who is still younger than most realize; Trey McBride — 25.9% TPRR, 2.03 YPRR, 144-target, 112-catch pace from point of clear role change (Zach Ertz traded, snaps shifted significantly); James Conner — looks like the clear lead, is coming off a career season with strong peripherals in what was a new offense, just some age cliff risk but could be a nice “fast start” RB with upside to just be good all year in 2024 again; Marvin Harrison — a lot of the rookie upside is already priced in at an early Round 2 cost, and very little of any potential risks (even if he hits, I’m not sure there are a ton of “big hit” scenarios where he’s a top-five overall WR, which are easier to see for WRs going around him)
Noise: Trey Benson — the assumption he’d step into a full role if James Conner misses time (wasn’t a workhorse in college, and Emari Demercado has been buzzy in camp and played a passing-down role last year, so I’d expect a split at best for Benson)
Los Angeles Rams
Key Stat: Puka Nacua — 26.7% TPRR, 2.59 YPRR (Cooper Kupp — 23.2%, 1.86, after 28%+ and 2.40+ in each of previous two years)
It seems the big question around the Rams is Puka Nacua versus Cooper Kupp, at least to some degree. One major note to understand with Puka is he had a ridiculous 35 targets in his first two career games (20 and 15), and then from there on was on a 142-target pace, though he finished at 160. And it’s not just that Kupp was out of those games; the Rams’ three highest pass rate and also play volume games all came in their first five weeks, and then they settled into a bit more of a run-based offense after Kyren Williams hit and especially when they made the move to Demarcus Robinson in three-wide sets. There’s more: Those first five games all featured at least 297 air yards; they went over that once more in the rest of the regular season, and were below 200 in 6 of their final 12 games. Their pass rate over those 12 games was just 55%, and plays per game were at a below-average 62.8. Kupp being healthier in 2024 could help this stuff, but they re-signed Robinson to a 1-year, $4m, fully guaranteed deal to pretty clearly come back and be that WR3 again (that’s not a massive deal, but relative to his market, it definitely made sure he’d be back), and then they also of course drafted a RB. This pass rate stuff has me lower than market on Matthew Stafford among the veteran pocket passer types available later in drafts.