Hi Ben, in your draft rankings of the rookie RBs are those mostly weighted by talent or how much does opportunity factor into your rankings? I ask because I have or can add everyone of the rookie RBs you mentioned and I'm trying to figure out which ones to prioritize outside of Bucky.
Yeah, good question. Truth is I almost exclusively play in leagues where I can't do that kind of thing, ha, so I often don't square those questions well.
Talent and opportunity definitely mix in. I thought Week 1 went very well for Vidal even with Dobbins looking great, because Edwards could have also looked good to start the year but he's a veteran RB who very much didn't, and things tend to just get worse from there. So Vidal's path already improved significantly.
In my one home league that's shallower, I dropped Tyrone Tracy because I have like four of these guys, in part because the Giants just looked so bad, so I don't know what that hit will look like.
Wright's opportunity is very much there. Davis is somewhat intriguing to see if we get anything tonight, but I'd still maybe prioritize the profiles I liked a bit more, unless you're on a site where you can cut him after tonight (if he locks through the weekend, that's less appealing, is what I mean).
Lloyd is hurt and now his QB is hurt and that impacts the offense for about a month, so he's a longer-term hold you can probably let go in shallower leagues and plan to be early on getting him back. When I have options, I want to prioritize early information.
Certainly part of the goal of Stealing Signals is to talk about these types of situations, the team environments, the players ahead of them, etc., each week. So hopefully my writeups of the players in those spots is helpful.
Love it, Ben. Please keep these coming as all the week 1 evangelists step up to their soap box to proclaim a battle victory in the 17 week war that is about to unfold. Can't wait for week 2!
Agree with all of this completely. I try not to get mad about it, but man it is hard sometimes.
I also want to piggyback off this to make a point that I think a lot of other people reacting to the week 1 results are missing. As far as I understand it, the main underpinning of zero RB as a draft strategy is the replaceability of non-elite RBs, not their quality. If the league is moving to taking away the pass at the expense of defending the run, that also stands to benefit backup RBs if they have to step into the main role. I would go so far as to say increased workloads for the main guys (unfortunately) make it that much more likely they'll get hurt at some point during the season. Obviously there are points about how consolidated the backup role will be, run/pass rate with a backup, and just overall drop-off in quality from the starter, but I don't see any reason to think those are different from years past.
Thanks as always for the insightful and engaging commentary, Ben!
I wrote stuff like this after I retired from wall st. Clients said “I did what you said and purchased a low cost, broad index fund and it went down during [fill in the event]. I’m going to sell, move my money to cash and pay [fill in the blank advisor] 1.5% for better advice.
Don’t get me started…
Back to ff, I’m thinking it’s time to sell high on lively. Andrews is not going away.
I know teams often look at the season in quarters (damn you 17 game seasons) often regarding game-planning and installing off/def. Additional work goes into bye weeks in the same effort.
I think about this every year and have always failed to figure out how to use this as an edge to trade. Last year the McBride stash worked but for my results this is an outlier.
At this moment I've got Wright / Corum / Bucky all on the bench and I'm staring disapprovingly at my guy Javonte. Planning to let the season unfold if my roster can handle it until bye weeks start.
Bag Defender: CRYSTAL BALLS OR NOTHING BECAUSE MUH TEAM. Reality: Give me salty. At least Gretch checks in on his own takes. Thanks for the thoughts and several huge laughs
At TE in particular, value over replacement is one thing, but (and especially if the position turns out to be pretty shallow) value over TE2 (or 3-6) is another thing that I feel like should be discussed more. Lapping the teams who are riding waivers is nice, but bullying every team you play every week is literally why Kelce was such a good asset for so long.
I know at several points in the offseason, I interpreted TE prices to mean "it's just going to be very clustered at the top" which makes the elites a little cheaper, and I have really appreciated your analysis calling out that the discount was coming from uncertainty over who might hit the ceiling that you would happily pay 1st-2nd round prices to get at the onesie if you knew it ahead of time. That dynamic hasn't changed.
Should we be applying this line of thinking to CMC or is that different?
In some ways, feels like the panic is very short sighted. Maybe he misses the first few weeks but by mid season — and, importantly, fantasy playoffs — he’s still the same guy most thought he was when they were taking him 1.01. Mason looked good as a fill in but ultimately he’s an undrafted guy that we’d really expect to hold off CMC?
In other ways, I get it, where calf/achilles injury for a 28-year-old back on a team with SB aspirations does feel ominous. And certainly CMC drafters would have, as of now, preferred to go a different direction in drafts considering the opportunity cost
But again, the level of panic feels very September brain. I suppose it’s different than examples cited in this piece because of cost?
Maybe one way to put it is we're willing to open 0-2 to have a way better team at the end.
I'm another with too many zero RB options. RB1 is Breece then both Bronco RBs, Bucky, Wright, and Tyjae. But Vidal, Lloyd and Chase Brown are available.
My most important home league team is stacked everywhere else, but has Kyren, Spears, Jaleel, Bucky, Wright, Davis. I’m pretty confident it’ll work out
This is making my zero rb build almost impossible in a shallow league. I have 3 bench spots to figure out Jaylen Wright, Blake Corum, Jaleel M, Chase brown, Bucky Irving, Jeff Wilson, and Rome odunze. I have to make some drops and have no idea how to think through the risk reward and also who of these to even start in the short term
I sent Sam thoughts elsewhere but I think Odunze is cuttable in shallow leagues (his format is 2-WR) and then I added this:
I think you’re holding Jaleel regardless, so it’s probably Corum, but what I would do is probably just cut Wilson and play Jaleel or — if Achane sits — Wright. But cutting Wilson does come at the expense of him being maybe the best play in this whole group this week, so part of the question is who would you be able to get back? How hard is your league? That’s where cutting Corum might make more sense.
Hahahahah. Loved this article. And you are 100% accurate in your writing Ben. Number 1 rule in Fantasy Football should be: Don't panic after week 1. Or week 2.
Love a heated Ben post one week into the season! How do you square lower ceiling guys like a Dowdle or a Perine with a clearer path to opportunity vs guys like Vidal who are available and have a higher ceiling, but a more obscure path to opportunity?
Depends on your roster, but you're ideally going to have a balance. You need guys who are startable in a pinch, and players like Dowdle fit that, but you don't want your whole roster to be full of these low-ceiling players. Unless your roster is very shallow, you should also be able to fit one or two high-upside stashes like Vidal (contingent backs in good offenses, like Corum or Charbonnet, fit this as well).
Hi Ben, in your draft rankings of the rookie RBs are those mostly weighted by talent or how much does opportunity factor into your rankings? I ask because I have or can add everyone of the rookie RBs you mentioned and I'm trying to figure out which ones to prioritize outside of Bucky.
Yeah, good question. Truth is I almost exclusively play in leagues where I can't do that kind of thing, ha, so I often don't square those questions well.
Talent and opportunity definitely mix in. I thought Week 1 went very well for Vidal even with Dobbins looking great, because Edwards could have also looked good to start the year but he's a veteran RB who very much didn't, and things tend to just get worse from there. So Vidal's path already improved significantly.
In my one home league that's shallower, I dropped Tyrone Tracy because I have like four of these guys, in part because the Giants just looked so bad, so I don't know what that hit will look like.
Wright's opportunity is very much there. Davis is somewhat intriguing to see if we get anything tonight, but I'd still maybe prioritize the profiles I liked a bit more, unless you're on a site where you can cut him after tonight (if he locks through the weekend, that's less appealing, is what I mean).
Lloyd is hurt and now his QB is hurt and that impacts the offense for about a month, so he's a longer-term hold you can probably let go in shallower leagues and plan to be early on getting him back. When I have options, I want to prioritize early information.
Certainly part of the goal of Stealing Signals is to talk about these types of situations, the team environments, the players ahead of them, etc., each week. So hopefully my writeups of the players in those spots is helpful.
Thanks for explaining your thinking on this. It's these factors that seem obvious but only in hindsight, that I find helpful.
Love it, Ben. Please keep these coming as all the week 1 evangelists step up to their soap box to proclaim a battle victory in the 17 week war that is about to unfold. Can't wait for week 2!
I’m addicted to the adrenaline rush of 0 RB, lottery ticket Frankenstein.
you and me both
Agree with all of this completely. I try not to get mad about it, but man it is hard sometimes.
I also want to piggyback off this to make a point that I think a lot of other people reacting to the week 1 results are missing. As far as I understand it, the main underpinning of zero RB as a draft strategy is the replaceability of non-elite RBs, not their quality. If the league is moving to taking away the pass at the expense of defending the run, that also stands to benefit backup RBs if they have to step into the main role. I would go so far as to say increased workloads for the main guys (unfortunately) make it that much more likely they'll get hurt at some point during the season. Obviously there are points about how consolidated the backup role will be, run/pass rate with a backup, and just overall drop-off in quality from the starter, but I don't see any reason to think those are different from years past.
Thanks as always for the insightful and engaging commentary, Ben!
I wrote stuff like this after I retired from wall st. Clients said “I did what you said and purchased a low cost, broad index fund and it went down during [fill in the event]. I’m going to sell, move my money to cash and pay [fill in the blank advisor] 1.5% for better advice.
Don’t get me started…
Back to ff, I’m thinking it’s time to sell high on lively. Andrews is not going away.
I know teams often look at the season in quarters (damn you 17 game seasons) often regarding game-planning and installing off/def. Additional work goes into bye weeks in the same effort.
I think about this every year and have always failed to figure out how to use this as an edge to trade. Last year the McBride stash worked but for my results this is an outlier.
At this moment I've got Wright / Corum / Bucky all on the bench and I'm staring disapprovingly at my guy Javonte. Planning to let the season unfold if my roster can handle it until bye weeks start.
Cracking up reading this. I must have missed some inspired comments somewhere.
Bag Defender: CRYSTAL BALLS OR NOTHING BECAUSE MUH TEAM. Reality: Give me salty. At least Gretch checks in on his own takes. Thanks for the thoughts and several huge laughs
Great stuff!
At TE in particular, value over replacement is one thing, but (and especially if the position turns out to be pretty shallow) value over TE2 (or 3-6) is another thing that I feel like should be discussed more. Lapping the teams who are riding waivers is nice, but bullying every team you play every week is literally why Kelce was such a good asset for so long.
I know at several points in the offseason, I interpreted TE prices to mean "it's just going to be very clustered at the top" which makes the elites a little cheaper, and I have really appreciated your analysis calling out that the discount was coming from uncertainty over who might hit the ceiling that you would happily pay 1st-2nd round prices to get at the onesie if you knew it ahead of time. That dynamic hasn't changed.
Should we be applying this line of thinking to CMC or is that different?
In some ways, feels like the panic is very short sighted. Maybe he misses the first few weeks but by mid season — and, importantly, fantasy playoffs — he’s still the same guy most thought he was when they were taking him 1.01. Mason looked good as a fill in but ultimately he’s an undrafted guy that we’d really expect to hold off CMC?
In other ways, I get it, where calf/achilles injury for a 28-year-old back on a team with SB aspirations does feel ominous. And certainly CMC drafters would have, as of now, preferred to go a different direction in drafts considering the opportunity cost
But again, the level of panic feels very September brain. I suppose it’s different than examples cited in this piece because of cost?
Maybe one way to put it is we're willing to open 0-2 to have a way better team at the end.
I'm another with too many zero RB options. RB1 is Breece then both Bronco RBs, Bucky, Wright, and Tyjae. But Vidal, Lloyd and Chase Brown are available.
My most important home league team is stacked everywhere else, but has Kyren, Spears, Jaleel, Bucky, Wright, Davis. I’m pretty confident it’ll work out
This is making my zero rb build almost impossible in a shallow league. I have 3 bench spots to figure out Jaylen Wright, Blake Corum, Jaleel M, Chase brown, Bucky Irving, Jeff Wilson, and Rome odunze. I have to make some drops and have no idea how to think through the risk reward and also who of these to even start in the short term
I am in essentially the exact same boat lol. Curious to hear thoughts!
I sent Sam thoughts elsewhere but I think Odunze is cuttable in shallow leagues (his format is 2-WR) and then I added this:
I think you’re holding Jaleel regardless, so it’s probably Corum, but what I would do is probably just cut Wilson and play Jaleel or — if Achane sits — Wright. But cutting Wilson does come at the expense of him being maybe the best play in this whole group this week, so part of the question is who would you be able to get back? How hard is your league? That’s where cutting Corum might make more sense.
This is definitely not an easy call!
You forgot to end this with, /endrant
Hahahahah. Loved this article. And you are 100% accurate in your writing Ben. Number 1 rule in Fantasy Football should be: Don't panic after week 1. Or week 2.
I needed this today, Ben. Thanks for a truly insightful post and a reminder I’m not playing this game incorrectly!
Love a heated Ben post one week into the season! How do you square lower ceiling guys like a Dowdle or a Perine with a clearer path to opportunity vs guys like Vidal who are available and have a higher ceiling, but a more obscure path to opportunity?
Depends on your roster, but you're ideally going to have a balance. You need guys who are startable in a pinch, and players like Dowdle fit that, but you don't want your whole roster to be full of these low-ceiling players. Unless your roster is very shallow, you should also be able to fit one or two high-upside stashes like Vidal (contingent backs in good offenses, like Corum or Charbonnet, fit this as well).