Preseason Stealing Signals, Week 2
The Signal and Noise from around the league in Pre-Week 2
No intro today, as I’m still trying to get caught up from the Saturday wedding I attended. Let’s jump right into the games and my abbreviated notes. I watched at least the first drive for every team, and then longer when the starting QB stayed in, or there were key rookie skill players I wanted to get a look at. But I did not watch the full game for each, and there’s plenty I missed — I figured some notes were better than no notes.
For the Signal and Noise sections, we’re just updating new information where I see it, so there aren’t a ton of those this week. I’m going to work through some usage tweets from Establish the Run’s Adam Levitan again this week. Make sure you’re following him and all the guys over at ETR.
Browns 18, Eagles 18
On a short week with a Thursday night game, neither Jalen Hurts nor Deshaun Watson played in this one.
Rookie Cedric Tillman worked with the starters and made a nice catch for a 36-yard gain on a downfield shot on the first drive of the game.
A lot was made of the Eagles’ backfield, but I continue to contend they don’t have their decisions made. Kenneth Gainwell got the early work in this one but got tackled in the end zone for a safety on a play that got blown up, but where he nonetheless looked like a smaller back, which he is. One of the arguments for Rashaad Penny’s fit is just size. I’m definitely hearing the talk of Penny potentially even being a cut (one line of thinking goes that the team would prioritize Trey Sermon as their fourth back since his contract runs through 2024 so the team has control there), but Penny has looked good on his limited preseason reps and also throughout his career in a way that continues to make him a target for me in managed leagues (where the upside offsets the potential I might just have to cut him early in the season if the regular season role isn’t there). I’m a little more concerned about my best ball bags, though.
Giants 21, Panthers 19
The Giants looked sweet on their first drive, but it’s worth noting they dropped back to pass on every snap because their superstar RB wasn’t suited up. Still, I switched Daniel Jones over to a Target in that fourth QB tier in the rankings; I’ve been higher than ADP on him but do really like him as a priority option if you’ve waited at QB.
Darren Waller was targeted on the first three snaps, and I continue to feel comfortable in my read on their plans to split him out a lot. His ADP is starting to shoot up in higher-stakes stuff, and I’ve moved him up the ranks accordingly, but I have not actually been chasing him up boards. It’s the kind of thing where if I get a good price at this point, I’ll probably use the knowledge of his rise in a lot of formats to buy at that good price. But I’m not expecting great prices and don’t really mind if I don’t have a ton of an older, potentially injury-prone player on an offense that is likely to be more run-heavy than they’ve looked in the preseason, at least at the elevated costs. He does look like the clear top target right now, but I feel like this hype is reacting to something that should have already been the expectation about his role, and I know for me was already baked into some of my early draft decisions on him.
Darius Slayton looks like a clear starter, as expected, but Isaiah Hodgins is someone I really like but was worried he might overlap with Waller too much. It’s really nice to see him getting run alongside Waller on the first team, and I moved him up my ranks several spots. He’s still a difficult guy to draft with all the receiving depth they’ve amassed, but he’s definitely good at football, dating back to his very productive college days, which is helpful. Parris Campbell also looks useful early in the season but I’d expect Wan’Dale Robinson to come for those snaps by the midway point. Nonetheless, there is definitely some potential for Giants’ WRs looking like deep-league waiver adds early in the year.
Last week, I wrote about Bryce Young looking comfortable in the pocket in his debut, despite him not really having great weapons. I didn’t feel the same way in this one. On his first drive, he moved in the pocket well and found an open Jonathan Mingo back over the middle on a third down, but Mingo frankly showed a lack of feel for his positioning, sort of cutting up field and in my opinion causing the incompletion. On the second drive, Mingo did make a catch on a slant and bounced off a hit, adding some yards after the catch. But generally, Young looked a little more rushed in the pocket, and I’d probably chalk some of that up to the lack of weapons around him. He also took a bad delay of game on a third-and-long. But there were positive signs, too, and I’d say his preseason has altogether been promising for long-term upside, perhaps even hitting in the second half of 2023.
The usage does seem pretty concentrated, especially with Terrace Marshall banged up and missing time.
Chuba Hubbard has also looked like the clear No. 2.
Signal: Daniel Jones — looking good with improved weapons in Year 2 in Brian Daboll’s offense; Bryce Young — looked a little less comfortable, more concern about the subpar weaponry they’ve surrounded him with
Noise: Giants — dropped back on every first-team snap, something they won’t do when Saquon Barkley is playing in the regular season
Bengals 13, Falcons 13
Bijan Robinson’s first run was electric, and we were only a good backside WR block away from a potential long touchdown, because he made the safety miss and it was the backside cornerback who got him to the turf. He also made a sweet one-handed catch on a screen later on the same drive, and he’s probably going to be extremely fun, and it’s quite a bummer for me personally that I don’t love his price. The reality of the RB position remains that even if he’s, say, Nick Chubb good right away — meaning among the most efficient RBs in the NFL — it’s still difficult to return value on a first-round ADP without at least some type of boost from your specific workload/usage. He might still get that, to be clear; there are no guarantees it will be bad or anything. This offense looks fun, and the timeshare stuff is probably not that relevant when we really get down to it. I’m still taking some Robinson, and I advise anyone playing in a lot of leagues to draft him some. But man I would have loved it if he landed somewhere else where I could have been overweight on him right away, because there are few situations I’d trust less than Atlanta.
Kyle Pitts’ usage was slightly concerning, which helps explain why I moved Waller ahead of him.
I’m with Adam that it’s not something to panic over, but boy does Arthur Smith tilt me in terms of outsmarting himself on usage.
Drake London got plenty of run and made a nice play on the sideline. Desmond Ridder also looked good in his limited time, including a couple red zone scrambles, and it was nice to see a willingness to take off and run there. He remains an interesting late-round QB given the weapons around him.
The Bengals are mostly trying to bubble wrap everybody after Joe Burrow’s calf tweak. Their one usage note was Chris Evans playing ahead of Chase Brown, but I’m not reading a ton into that given Evans has been with the team and Brown is a Day 3 rookie. Evans also struggled to get on the field over Samaje Perine last year. I ultimately don’t feel like the No. 2 role here is clear, or decided on.
Jaguars 25, Lions 7
We didn’t get a look at Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff or any of the key Jacksonville or Detroit starters.
The highest-profile player to play in this game, and probably the only one worth discussing, was Tank Bigsby. He ran efficiently on 13 carries and also had a catch, but again, no one else of any consequence even played for Jacksonville. That’s also not to say it’s odd that a rookie would get extended run here, because that’s normal. The bigger issue is just that he’s not the athlete Travis Etienne is, and that’s readily apparent when you watch them, and will be in-season. I noted the importance of good usage in the Bijan section above, but Etienne is priced way cheaper and falls on those concerns, which remain overblown for me.
Dolphins 28, Texans 3
Really sloppy start to this one. Tua Tagovailoa threw a pick on the first play, and then after taking over inside the 10-yard line, C.J. Stroud didn’t look great, taking a third-down delay of game and missing on a fourth-down throw to Dalton Schultz where there seemed to be some miscommunication (Schultz cut off his route, Stroud tried to lead him). And then after the Dolphins took over on downs, their first snap was nearly a safety on a mis-timed snap, and went for a loss of 5.
One of the big storylines that came out of this game was De’Von Achane — apart from him injuring his shoulder — playing deep into the game, behind guys like Salvon Ahmed. Raheem Mostert does look like the lead back early in the season, although Jeff Wilson didn’t play in this one.
I’m not even an Achane fan, but to me, the bet on him was as an antifragile pick for later in the year, so while I moved him down the rankings a bit due to the injury, I’m not overly worried about the order of the reps right now. I do think there’s positive spin for Mostert and possibly Wilson — Mostert in particular becomes a really easy Zero RB pick as an early-season bridge to your upside plays, given his early-season role seems to be solidifying.
Dameon Pierce’s usage was very exciting, but I continue to be concerned about the Houston offense.
There are some smart people who have commented that this Texans’ roster is better than expected (I remember seeing it from Sumer Sports’ Eric Eager, as one), but I’m having a hard time seeing it even with C.J. Stroud completing some more throws on his second and third drives than we’d seen so far this preseason. The note that Devin Singletary played the whole third drive is interesting as well; it’s possible that was just a preseason thing where Pierce’s day was done before Stroud’s, but we have seen teams rotate series with their backs sometimes, including this exact trend of two drives for the starter and then one for the backup. I’m not saying that’s how they’ll do it in Houston this year, just that there are two sides to the coin that Pierce playing on passing downs might also mean a RB set-up where both guys are playing all downs when out there, not necessarily a locked-in workhorse situation. Ultimately, I’m not moving Pierce in the rankings; this is a positive note, but not one I want to overreact to when there are still valid concerns to his profile (which also don’t make him undraftable or anything, and I have him in a range where I’ve gotten him before).
I don’t think Tank Dell played, but we did get Robert Woods and Noah Brown snaps with the ones, in addition to Nico Collins, so I’m still vaguely worried about how Dell can get into a high-route role early in the year. He could be a guy who builds into that, though.
Durham Smythe was out there a lot with the first team, getting two targets from Tua. He’s vaguely interesting in a “Miami kinda needs a third option to replace what Mike Gesicki did last year” kinda way.
Signal: Raheem Mostert — latest early-season starter/bridge RB to your upside plays in Zero RB builds; Durham Smythe — looks like Miami’s main TE; Dameon Pierce — playing on some passing downs, although the market might overreact to this one
Noise: De’Von Achane — playing later in preseason games, as he’s more of an antifragile later-season bet (the injury isn’t Noise, and needs to be monitored)