Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC East
Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC East
The Signal and Noise for each NFC East team
I’ve been getting some questions about posting schedule for July, and that’s understandable as I’d expected to be back in your inboxes before today. That gap has mostly been as a result of getting projections and a lot of podcasts done, including the series with Michael Leone over on Establish the Edge where we just finished recording our final of eight episodes covering each division, going team by team to discuss our projections and the actionable stuff we’ve found.
Going division by division to discuss every player in depth has also been the plan here, and this post had unfortunately been in the hopper for some time. Part of why I’ve pushed it is after a very interesting 2022 season, I find myself really wanting to dig into the nuance of each offense. As such, I’ll be writing eight of these posts this year, instead of how I tackled it last year where I did two divisions at a time to try to speed through it as much as possible. In addition to these, I’ll have plenty more headed your way here in July, including my full projections, initial rankings, and several one-off posts, including two of my longer theory ones that I already have outlined but like to wait to write up until I’m really ready to tackle that topic.
If you’ve been around the past couple years, you know what these Offseason Signals posts are. If you’re newer around here, these will be written team-by-team breakdowns where I go pretty in depth about what I think is worth playing in each offense, relative to market sentiment. I’ve written about my love/hate relationship with full-season projections several times, and the reason I still do them is they are a great way to research everything there is to know at the team level and ground yourself in the big questions and various possible outcomes for the way the upcoming season could play out. But we’re always trying to think probabilistically, and this research is just an avenue toward contemplating what might come next in a league where chaos is the rule. The one thing I know without a doubt for the 2023 NFL season is things will happen that I absolutely did not foresee, and couldn’t have foreseen, because that has happened every single season for decades of following this league.
The best we can do is develop a consistent process, ground ourselves in the data and information that matters — both for analyzing players and in terms of what actually wins in fantasy football, not just what feels like it would help win, an important distinction — and be open to being wrong. That analytical humility is the most important piece of the puzzle. I’m always learning. I’ve often said the day I stop being curious about this sport is the day I’ll hang it up as an analyst.
These Offseason Signals posts will essentially be a list of my findings from doing the projections process, which means they don’t typically follow a clear and concise format other than I usually talk about each position group and probably something about overall volume or team environment. I was looking through the first of last year’s editions, and I quoted this from the year prior as an explanation of what to expect, so I’ll just quote it again here because I’m super original:
I’m more or less going to just fire off stuff I think is interesting about each team. Things I learned while going through the projections process, including what I think projections will miss. Which trends and narratives being discussed look like signal and which are probably noisy. And definitely a focus on market dynamics and whether the things influencing ADP are valid to provide actionable information on how I’m playing each offense.
I need to note I don’t intend these to be comprehensive, because there will be much more to learn from offseason programs. But this is where I’m at for each offense right now, in July, and then takes will develop from there.
Last thing: I went over the receiving weapons on a team-by-team basis in my TPRR looks earlier this offseason, and those are still very relevant pieces that I myself circle back on quite often. I’ll reference some of that stuff from time to time, but I’m not going to rehash all of those two posts here. If these posts ever feel a little light on pass-catching data, that’s why.
Enough preamble, let’s get to it.
Dallas Cowboys
Key Stat: Ezekiel Elliott — 19 carries from 5 yards and in, 9 TD; 8 carries from 1 yard, 7 TD (ranked among top three in NFL in carries and TDs from both distances)
I have concerns about the shift with Mike McCarthy taking over a larger role in how the offense operates, which was the stated reasoning for moving on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore this offseason. Hayden Winks had a great tweet breaking that down.
There’s context needed for McCarthy’s rates in that Aaron Rodgers likes to operate at a snail’s pace, but the Cowboys are the only team in the NFL that’s run at least 65 plays per game in each of the past four years, and that benchmark — which is solidly above average and a real positive for fantasy — may be in jeopardy this year. That said, QB does play a role in this, and Dak Prescott may keep things moving. Ultimately, I projected Dallas to come down in play volume but still be above average. But this is a team I don’t feel confident in from a pace perspective despite the consistency in their recent data.
I also had an issue with Prescott’s efficiency in my projection, where I felt it wasn’t really fair to his true talent level, but I also didn’t know where else among his receivers to improve things. I talked in my NFC TPRR piece earlier this offseason about how CeeDee Lamb took a step forward last year, and he’s a clear draft target as the only efficient returning pass weapon. This offense was super concentrated last year, with the fourth most-targeted WR earning just 10 targets for the season (and that was late-season add T.Y. Hilton, who played just three games).
That concentration existed despite Michael Gallup and Noah Brown not being very good as the Nos. 2 and 3, which also speaks poorly of Jalen Tolbert and Simi Fehoko as youngsters who didn’t earn reps. The 2023 roster appears to have the same lack of WR depth. Brown is now replaced by Brandin Cooks in the main rotation, and Cooks and Gallup appear slated for plenty of routes as things likely concentrate on the top three WRs again. That helps their floor, and because Cooks is an efficient (but aging) player, there’s probably some ceiling for him as well. Gallup will now be two years removed from his ACL tear, which could be key but is difficult to know how to project given his 2022 was legitimately dreadful. Most notably, his 2020 and 2021 sample — pre-ACL — was quite large (956 routes) and showed considerable drop-off from his career-best 2019 season (he was down to YPRRs of 1.34 and 1.37 those two years, after 2.16 in 2019). So while Gallup does look like something of a value WR from the sense of projected routes, he’s a good example of a player that is outside the “WR window” of interesting upside WR profiles in that the idea he will suddenly be back to his early-career self now that he’s a second year removed from the ACL has to be classified as fairly optimistic (and ultimately the efficiency in his subset of the targets, plus uncertainty at TE, is what is holding back Dak’s projection for me).
One of the biggest looming questions for the Cowboys’ offseason is whether it is really the end of the Ezekiel Elliott era. Unfortunately, I projected him a role in this offense because I do think he winds up back there, and I do think a big part of that role would be short-yardage work, meaning he could be a drain on Tony Pollard’s touchdown upside. Pollard’s a fantastic player, but he was one of only 13 RBs to score double-digit touchdowns last year, and he did so from the longest average distance:
His touchdown rate is pretty capped if he can’t add some shorter scores, and that can certainly happen. But if it doesn’t, we’re frankly due for some regression on his rate of long touchdowns, and he could be moving backward in the TD department. Of note, Dak has only rushed for one touchdown in each of the past two years since his major leg injury, after starting his career with solid rushing TD rates, and Pollard’s current backups all weighed in under 210 in their pre-draft processes once upon a time (Ronald Jones in particular is likely larger than that now). So as it sits, there’s not an obvious alternative to Pollard getting more short work (which is also the biggest reason I’m projecting Zeke back in Dallas). One thing I think the market has blown past is the late-season leg injury. While Pollard’s expected to be healthy for the season, the team might not actually be ready to commit to him in a workhorse role. At his size (lighter than traditional workhorses), I’d have probably wanted him coming off a fully healthy season to project the step forward in volume his Round 2 ADP is suggesting. I do think if Zeke re-signs, Pollard will fall into the third round, and he’ll be an easier pick at that point, betting on his explosiveness and the expectation he’d still be the clear lead over Zeke.
Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot ran 105 and 112 routes, respectively, behind the departed Dalton Schultz last year. Ferguson was much better both at earning volume (21.0% TPRR to Hendershot’s 13.4%) and also doing something with it (7.9 YPT on only a 3.1-yard aDOT to Hendershot’s 6.9 YPT on a 7.5 aDOT). Neither is a standout or terrible athlete, and both had unspectacular production profiles in college, but neither were total duds in that area, either (Ferguson’s college production is a bit stronger). Rookie second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker also figures into the TE equation, and right now I’m projecting targets to all three of these guys, but I do think there’s a pretty solid chance one consolidates and becomes a nice late-round option, given Dallas’s routes concentration the past few years. The best bet is probably Ferguson given the difficulty of rookie TEs producing big numbers in Year 1, and Schoonmaker being more of an athlete/project given how well he tested but with only 23 games of collegiate experience. He had just 19 total collegiate catches prior to 35 for Michigan this past season, so he’s not the type I’d typically expect to step into big reception numbers in his rookie season.
Signal: CeeDee Lamb — clear alpha and draft target; Cowboys — concentrated target tree last year, expected similar this season which is positive for Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup; Jake Ferguson — best bet to consolidate TE role, good per-route peripherals last year in small sample
Noise: Cowboys — projections that look at consistently high play volume in the past as predictive; Tony Pollard — market enthusiasm on heavier/goal-line role given late-season injury (relevant more for team perception) and Ezekiel Elliott’s looming free agency
New York Giants
Key Stat: Daniel Jones — 7.5 rush attempts per game (previous career high — 5.6)
For as much as the 2022 Giants felt like a super run-heavy team, they finished slightly above average in play volume thanks to the third-highest no-huddle rate in neutral situations, at 16% of snaps. They were also at 16% no huddle across all snaps, which was fifth highest in the league, per the RotoViz Pace Tool. So Brian Daboll was willing to speed things up some, and that helped the overall fantasy picture.
Daniel Jones scrambled on 10% of dropbacks, up from a previous career high of 5.7%, which helped limit pass attempts to some degree (because scrambles are called pass plays that don’t become pass attempts), but the Giants still finished 25th in the league with 520 attempts, and closer to league average than they were to the bottom four teams. They just never had a consistent receiver rotation, both due to health and other issues, leading to Saquon Barkley leading the team with 76 targets and just two others finishing with more than 50. Things almost have to be more concentrated this year, although their offseason moves suggest they value depth more than clarity of role. Trying to figure out the WR group seems relevant given depressed ADPs across the board, but also possibly too thin to be chasing.
With Daboll also using Jones intelligently on designed runs — setting a career high there as well — Jones’ 7.5 rushes per game were way up from his previous career high of 5.6. This is key because how interesting he looks as a mid-round QB target could be pretty dependent on where his rushing rate lands. Ultimately, it’s a range, and what happened in 2022 gives us a broader point about what is possible for mobile QBs in certain situations, like with a new coaching staff or perhaps in a contract year where they have something to prove. I mention the contract year element because now the team has invested in Jones at a higher salary through at least 2024, and I think there’s at least some concern Daboll won’t lean on the designed runs to quite the same degree. Again, this significantly impacts the usability of his projection — set his rush rate to 2022 numbers, and you’re talking about a clear target; set it closer to his earlier-career rates and you’re talking about a likely fade.
The Giants are a fun team to jump into early in this because there are useful bigger-picture lessons about projections here. Barkley is one of those RBs who kind of has to project well, given the state of the backups. Matt Breida is another year older, and I’m not buying he would carry a big role if Barkley went down. Then there’s Gary Brightwell and rookie fifth-round pick Eric Gray, who seems like someone to bet into on uncertainty alone until you realize he’s already 23, matched Brightwell’s poor 4.62 40-yard dash time but at a smaller weight (Gray is just 205), and was a transfer back who wasn’t all that productive at Tennessee before finally having a notable year as a senior at Oklahoma. In other words, while this seems like a wide open handcuff situation and any rookie in that situation seems interesting, there’s almost nothing in Gray’s profile that entices me to actually chase it. He looks like a receiving back as his upside case, but not a workhorse. So in a projection you can wind up with Barkley seeing a monster share of the overall work, and that’s probably fair, although his actual ability to hit that is more of a health thing and the slight differences in the final workload projection between him and other similar backs that are the clear top players in their backfields — say Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, or Josh Jacobs — aren’t super relevant, other than quantifying team expectation (both volume and touchdown environment, which matter in the projection, but as I’ve written, can be difficult to trust). Regardless, Barkley is again a solid bet, though we need to be somewhat cautious of holdout risk.
The Giants’ pass catchers offer a different projection conundrum where things get too concentrated because you want to keep some volume for so many viable names. In reality, they will presumably have starters who win jobs, and some players will be cut. There are some interesting contract notes here, including Darius Slayton getting two years this offseason with a $3.5 million signing bonus, while Sterling Shepard for example got just one year and no guaranteed money. Among slot guys, Parris Campbell got $1.5 million at signing, while Jamison Crowder is another easy cut. Isaiah Hodgins is the tricky one who is an easy cut contractually, but he wasn’t a new add this offseason and is technically still on his rookie deal after getting plucked off the Bills’ practice squad. He also potentially fills a unique role in this group. There’s also Wan’Dale Robinson entering Year 2 as a second-round pick last year, rookie Jalin Hyatt being selected in the 2023 third round, and then big free agent add Darren Waller who could split out a decent amount — he’s lined up out wide on at least 20% of his snaps in each season of his career, and was in the slot 62% of the time last year while being inline just 17%. The Giants used 12 personnel (two TEs) a decent amount last year (25% on first downs), and they may feel it gives them a tactical advantage in the huddle by not tipping their formational hand. Being able to keep Waller inline or to split him out to a WR role after breaking the huddle is too much of an advantage to not think a now-sharp organization wasn’t planning for Waller to be taking at least some of the WR routes, which further complicates the math there.
So when I mentioned depth of role earlier, I’m seeing Waller and Hodgins as overlapping to some degree, as bigger-bodied intermediate weapons. Then you have Slayton and Hyatt overlapping as vertical threats, and Robinson and Campbell (and Crowder) being slot/underneath options. Shepard could theoretically do a variety of things, I think. [As an aside, I break it down this way because as an analyst, I’m typically less concerned with where they align than the depth they run the majority of their routes at. Alignment can fit the personnel and play, but routes can’t all attack the same areas of the field. For example, something like a backside dig can fit a play design from out wide (Hodgins) or an inline alignment (Waller); a team could attack the seam via a post from the outside (Slayton) or with a vertical slot (Hyatt) or even mobile TE (Waller); a wheel route can come from the slot (Robinson), inline (Waller), or the backfield (Barkley); in all of these examples the key is there’s a route stressing the defense a certain way rather than where it is coming from, and good coaches are often disguising where it might be coming from anyway.] Anyway, I can make a pretty good case for any of Robinson, Hyatt, Slayton, Hodgins, or Campbell being a viable late-round dart throw on Giants best ball stacks, and I also think Waller is a very viable TE in the range he is going in. I do think at least one of the WRs will solidly outperform my modest projection for all of them — which spreads the targets around too thin, by necessity — but I’m also not sure it’s actually worth the stacking advantage to be playing into this much uncertainty, at least in July best ball. As such, I’ve been mostly avoiding the Giants once Waller is off the board, though I take a little of Robinson (rookie profile I liked) and Slayton (guaranteed money). I’d like to take more Hodgins, because I really like the player, but the logjam and his contract situation are tough, and Waller too redundant of a skill set as the new add.
Signal: Giants — strong no-huddle usage kept volume decent for a run-first team; Saquon Barkley — nothing in a projection can limit his work, and in practice it’ll come down to what he can handle; Darren Waller — could split out some, good bet to lead the team in targets; Giants WRs — someone almost certainly beats ADP but it’s tough to justify chasing it with wide open routes, depth at multiple spots, and potential for some rotation
Noise: Daniel Jones — 7.5 rush attempts per game (increase of nearly two per game over previous career highs is partially explainable by whole new offense and some of the smart designed runs, but it’s hard to expect him to match it with the new contract); Eric Gray — probably not an NFL athlete with a 4.62 40-yard dash at 5-9, 205, making it tough to play into this open backup situation
Philadelphia Eagles
Key Stat: Eagles — 21% neutral no huddle rate (second highest in NFL)
I talked about the Eagles’ concentration in my recent piece on RPOs, but to restate some of it, one of the things you often find with successful NFL seasons is good health in a league otherwise defined by attrition. The 2022 Eagles certainly fit that, and it led to a super concentrated offense. Only four WRs got a target all season, as well as only three RBs and four TEs. That makes it difficult to parse for 2023 because it is unlikely they stay that healthy, but there were layers to it like Dallas Goedert missing time and the backup TEs not seeing volume anywhere near the degree to which Goedert did (i.e. the volume shifted to WRs, with Quez Watkins seeing the biggest uptick). It was a deliberate offense that flowed through the players it wanted to flow through, so a repeat of this type of volume concentration shouldn’t be completely written off.
While the Eagles were a run-heavy team, including Jalen Hurts leading QBs with 123 designed runs — 34 more than anyone else — their 21% no-huddle rate in neutral situations led to a very fast pace and enough play volume to keep the pass attempts in a reasonable spot, particularly given the concentration of targets. Ideally that will carry over again, but I do have to say there appears to be little room for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to beat ADP when both are going in the top-25 picks. It’s possible this offense shifts to more passing, which would be welcome, but more traditional pass plays might deconcentrate the targets somewhat (which I discussed more in the RPO piece). In my projections, I kept the Eagles very concentrated in their targets, and I elevated their pass rate about two-and-a-half percentage points while also decreasing overall play volume a bit from their top-five figure to a still above average rate. My Brown and Smith projections were still strong, and within range of their ADPs, but they didn’t quite reach the projections I had even for comparable WRs going right after them, and that’s with me almost trying to squeeze everything I could out of the Eagles’ pass projection. What I’m trying to say is a fast-paced, no-huddle friendly offense with seriously concentrated targets — plus strong efficiency for both — was probably close to the ceiling outcome for these two in 2022. With Hurts’ rushing and the offensive design, I’m not sure how much more production can be expected, and it unfortunately means I’d prefer to be taking AJB in the early second and Smith in the third (rather than their late-first and second-round ADPs).