Thanks Ben. There’s one step in this evolution that I could use some clarity on. I get 11 personnel spread dominance led to defensive adjustments toward lighter / faster personnel which allowed mobile QBs to capitalize on the ground. But as defenses continue to play light, these same QBs are being played off the field or just not rushing as much. Is the logic here that defenses have continued to evolve to the point where they can expose QB processing AND limit their rushing? I understand the Fields’ of the world get played off the field but it feels like there’s more at play even with the mobile QBs who are +’s in processing.
Man, good question. Something I meant to cover. I'd meant to add that one of the things from The Playcallers was how instead of defenses having to choose this or that, they were coming up with answers that were more this *and* that. And yeah, I think they've probably continued to evolve in exactly that way. Addressing QB scrambles by having spy responsibility built into some of the unique coverages and the ways they will sometimes drop linemen and those things was pretty clearly going to be a next focus for the defenses, and I basically think that while offenses are adjusting, defenses have been ahead for the past few years and are also iterating and staying ahead in some ways.
The alternative explanation for the decline in QB rushing would be some offensive innovation where teams are finding specific answers of how to attack specific looks from the defenses, and that's dramatically shifted how much QB rushing has been the preferred response, relative to 2022. It might also be that, to a degree, but if that were a driving factor I would think we would be seeing an associated increase in offensive success in other ways, mostly passing, and we're not really seeing that. The QB aDOTs are still low, offensive yardage is still down, and really the only stats improving are TD% — influenced by field position with the kickoff rules and how teams are scoring more *relative to their yardage* in the past two years as those rules have been enacted — and INT%, which has been a forever trend of teams prioritizing not turning the ball over more and more, and also is going to be correlated to lower aDOTs.
That first part about defenses being able to do multiple things feels right, at least anecdotally. It also seems to coincide with the recent revolution of the nickel position, allowing teams to play "light and heavy" at the same time. A lot of teams seem to be looking for their own version of Kyle Hamilton or Nick Emmanwori -- guys who can drop back in coverage but also make plays around the line of scrimmage which creates a matchup problem for any QB.
I didn't really watch much of the Arthur Smith/Rodgers offense in PIT this year for my own sanity, but I'd argue the biggest drop off we saw in Aaron's game in the last few years was he couldn't handle post snap processing. He was one of the best in the league for years in manipulating a defense presnap and couldn't change with the meta. The play he tore his achilles on was directly caused by this.
Thanks Ben. There’s one step in this evolution that I could use some clarity on. I get 11 personnel spread dominance led to defensive adjustments toward lighter / faster personnel which allowed mobile QBs to capitalize on the ground. But as defenses continue to play light, these same QBs are being played off the field or just not rushing as much. Is the logic here that defenses have continued to evolve to the point where they can expose QB processing AND limit their rushing? I understand the Fields’ of the world get played off the field but it feels like there’s more at play even with the mobile QBs who are +’s in processing.
Man, good question. Something I meant to cover. I'd meant to add that one of the things from The Playcallers was how instead of defenses having to choose this or that, they were coming up with answers that were more this *and* that. And yeah, I think they've probably continued to evolve in exactly that way. Addressing QB scrambles by having spy responsibility built into some of the unique coverages and the ways they will sometimes drop linemen and those things was pretty clearly going to be a next focus for the defenses, and I basically think that while offenses are adjusting, defenses have been ahead for the past few years and are also iterating and staying ahead in some ways.
The alternative explanation for the decline in QB rushing would be some offensive innovation where teams are finding specific answers of how to attack specific looks from the defenses, and that's dramatically shifted how much QB rushing has been the preferred response, relative to 2022. It might also be that, to a degree, but if that were a driving factor I would think we would be seeing an associated increase in offensive success in other ways, mostly passing, and we're not really seeing that. The QB aDOTs are still low, offensive yardage is still down, and really the only stats improving are TD% — influenced by field position with the kickoff rules and how teams are scoring more *relative to their yardage* in the past two years as those rules have been enacted — and INT%, which has been a forever trend of teams prioritizing not turning the ball over more and more, and also is going to be correlated to lower aDOTs.
That first part about defenses being able to do multiple things feels right, at least anecdotally. It also seems to coincide with the recent revolution of the nickel position, allowing teams to play "light and heavy" at the same time. A lot of teams seem to be looking for their own version of Kyle Hamilton or Nick Emmanwori -- guys who can drop back in coverage but also make plays around the line of scrimmage which creates a matchup problem for any QB.
I didn't really watch much of the Arthur Smith/Rodgers offense in PIT this year for my own sanity, but I'd argue the biggest drop off we saw in Aaron's game in the last few years was he couldn't handle post snap processing. He was one of the best in the league for years in manipulating a defense presnap and couldn't change with the meta. The play he tore his achilles on was directly caused by this.