Stealing Signals, Week 1, Part 1
The signal and the noise from TNF and the early Sunday games
I am so, so excited to be back writing this for you. I mean, check back in Week 12 and I’m sure I’ll be worn down. But holy shit, Week 1 was fun. We knew we wouldn’t get everything right, but we got a lot we can work with. Football is back, and it doesn’t get much better than digging into everything, from every team, and trying to figure out what adjustments we can make.
First of all, I want to apologize for the lateness this week. Week 1 is always tough as I perhaps don’t plan as well as I should and can hit some data hiccups. Finding new sources for things can be a pain this first week, but we’ll have stuff squared away for future weeks.
Also, I wanted to make note that due to the length of this Week 1 email, it’s possible Gmail and potentially other email services will truncate it (at least as far as this message I’m getting from Substack is telling me). The full writeup may not show up — the final game is Panthers-Jets, so if you don’t see that, you didn’t get the full email — but you can always view it at bengretch.substack.com. We shouldn’t have this issue most weeks, but Week 1 is a bear.
This writeup is also extra long because I decided for some insane reason to wake up this morning and write a long introduction, which I’ve now written a short introduction to introduce. So here’s that, followed by 10 games of writeups and all the Signal and Noise.
I mentioned some time ago that I have some reasons about why HVT is the stat it is, though some have asked about using targets instead of receptions, and others wonder about green zone touches as opposed to something closer to the goal-line like inside the 5-yard line, or weighting based on expected point value.
My reasoning gets to this idea of descriptive vs. predictive. All of these stats are descriptive, and sometimes when they are made too precise, they can be misused in the predictive sense, which is how we’re trying to apply them. I would say this is especially true for the green zone touches, where I just want to know which guys a team might use down close. The expected point models had some real concerns about Antonio Gibson’s role early last year because of Peyton Barber rush attempts at the goal-line, and yet Gibson was still getting carries fairly close to the end zone and we could apply some context that as a rookie his role could expand. He was certainly not boxed out of a future role where his EP spiked. In that case, Barber’s early role told us something, but we needed to be able to consider how things could still evolve. Simply looking at all the stats from Week 1 and assuming those roles are going to stick all year is akin to simply looking at 2020 stats when you do your 2021 draft. There’s always a bit of understanding of the numbers and the roles, then another bit of applying them with some forecasts about future expectations.
So when I get asked why I use HVT, or I hear people reference stats that can be more predictive, I always kind of laugh. It really doesn’t matter what we’re looking at. When I see interesting HVT usage, I dig deeper and understand the specific context. I look at touches inside the 10-yard line first, and don’t weight them, because I specifically want a broader idea of usage that is more simple — I can easily add the context of something like Barber’s usage from early in 2020 if need be.
In practice, the players HVT might not emphasize and EP might are going to be those who get the very strong value right at the goal-line. But as I’ve mentioned before and believe I originally heard from Rich Hribar, plays inside the 3-yard line are highly volatile on a team level. We can look back at guys who got these highly valuable attempts, but it doesn’t tell us much about whether that team will score from further out or fail to get down into scoring range again the next week. I recently looked at it from a year-over-year perspective in the RotoViz Screener, and there’s almost no correlation for team rush attempts inside the 3-yard line from one season to the next (since 2000).
Even though many good offenses stay good and bad ones stay bad over multiple seasons, the number of rush attempts from the 3-yard line or closer is not likely to be predictive. I chose that figure for a reason — I was investigating a great point Shawn Siegele made on our Stealing Bananas podcast about Dalvin Cook’s monster rush EP figure in 2020. That figure was driven by Cook leading the league with 20 rush attempts from inside the 3-yard line, and tying for the fourth-most such carries in a single season from any player since 2000. This is precisely why Shawn emphasized how difficult it would be for Cook to back up his high rush EP numbers in 2021; those more valuable close rush attempts are descriptive of his past value, but don’t actually tell us meaningful information about just how high his rush EP might be this season because we don’t know how frequently the Vikings will run plays down there going forward.
And then Cook started off with a great example of this variance in Week 1, scoring yet again from the 1-yard line. He got that attempt because a challenged play where Justin Jefferson very clearly scored a touchdown was deemed to be unclear, and so the play stood as called — that he was short of the goal-line — which is exactly the type of variance that can lead to uncertainty about whether a team might run a lot of plays down inside the 3-yard-line in the first place. There’s definitely value in knowing Cook was going to get the rock right there after the refs failed to get the call correct, but the point is Jefferson scored and that play almost didn’t happen.
This doesn’t mean EP can’t be used effectively — Shawn does, clearly understanding EP can regress, too, and it’s not just about the “efficiency” but understanding how these figures mesh — and this larger point is not even an argument about HVT and EP. There’s something to be said for most stats, as long as context is applied and the stats’ limitations are understood. What I’m trying to do in this introduction is address football stats broadly, because I get asked a lot about the specific stats I reference, and what stats we should look at.
The reality is all the information is out there if you go looking, and there are always sharp analysts interpreting it well, as well as people misinterpreting it. I’ve always said you should use multiple sources, and I should just be one. There are some really cool, even more advanced stats than I’ll dig into here; the question with those I always ask is how much they move the needle. There are multiple ways to get to the useful takeaways we seek, and I’d argue the stuff we’ll cover here will get you a very high percentage of the way toward our goal of recalibrating player value each week. There are slightly “better” stats than others from a predictive sense, and all have their limitations in football, and that weird yearning to find the one stat to rise above all the other stats is kind of silly when we know chaos is going to reign supreme as we look forward. Week 1 reminded us, again, that everything changes, always. This is the Jerry Jeudy note in my introduction, and it’s a bummer.
It’s all about balancing the descriptive and the predictive. I see people all the time emphasizing the wrong notes from stats like EP as if there will be no variance and the past will exactly equate to the future. My promise to you here in Stealing Signals is I will explain the why — if you read each week, you will understand, very specifically, why I am interpreting the data how I am in terms of applying it forward. This is the real value a fantasy football analyst can provide in the information age, when the data is out there everywhere, and I appreciate that you’ve chosen me to ride with for those discussions.
And in Week 1, we have a ton we need to discuss, including 10 games in today’s writeup and the other six from Week 1 tomorrow. Shawn and I discussed our initial thoughts on a Sunday night recap edition of Stealing Bananas last night. Let’s get to the more involved data.
Data are typically courtesy of several RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, Fantasy Evaluator, Add More Funds, RotoGrinders, or PFF. Always feel free to hit me up in the comments or on Discord (it’s coming, more information tomorrow!) with any questions about anything I covered, or to ask my thoughts on something I glossed over. So much happens every week, and I undoubtedly miss an injury here or a reason for wonky usage there. You guys helping me fill those holes is my favorite feedback.
If you’re new this year, welcome! I’ll list snap shares from every team, but I’ll mention important route context in the body of each section, and especially for WRs and TEs we should be looking at routes heavily. There is, of course, still value in knowing just how much players are on the field.
I’ll also give a key stat for each game, and after recapping that game from a fantasy perspective, I’ll give the Signal and Noise. The Signal and Noise section is something of a summary of the key value shifts, so if you don’t have time to read the whole thing, you should be able to pretty easily skim those for the actionable takeaways.
Here are some important statistics to know for Stealing Signals:
Green Zone — Inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
HVT — High-Value Touches: Green zone touches plus receptions. Touchdown potential and pass-catching upside are the keys to RB upside in PPR, while rush attempts outside scoring range are far lower in fantasy value.
TPRR — Targets Per Route Run: Pretty self explanatory, and my preferred way of breaking down the popular stat Yards Per Route Run.
TRAP — Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage: For running backs, the percentage of all touches that are not High-Value Touches. A higher TRAP means a high percentage of low-value rush attempts outside scoring range, which is worse for fantasy production.
WOPR — Weighted Opportunity Rating: A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer which balances team share of targets and team share of air yards. Because a player's WOPR is a share of his team's overall opportunity, it's important to consider team volume as additional context.
EP/ruEP/reEP — Expected Points/Rushing Expected Points/Receiving Expected Points: RotoViz stats that measure the expected PPR points of any target or carry based on the yard line where it occurred.
FPOE/ruFPOE/reFPOE — Fantasy Points Over Expected: RotoViz stats that measure how many PPR points a player earned above or below his expected points (EP).
Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 29
RB Snap Notes: Leonard Fournette: 65% (2020 season high: 73%), Giovani Bernard: 26%, Ronald Jones: 9%, Ezekiel Elliott: 83% (highest since Week 3, 2020), Tony Pollard: 24%
WR Snap Notes: Chris Godwin: 98%, Mike Evans: 94%, Antonio Brown: 65%, Amari Cooper: 88%, CeeDee Lamb: 73%, Michael Gallup: 60% (injured), Cedrick Wilson: 40%
TE Snap Notes: Rob Gronkowski: 88%, Cameron Brate: 28%, O.J. Howard: 9%, Dalton Schultz: 68%, Blake Jarwin: 57%
Key Stat: Teams — 108 combined pass attempts, 782 passing yards, 7 passing TDs
The Thursday night opener was an absolute blast, with both teams playing with tempo, throwing a ton, and producing plenty of fantasy points. This game will be a great one to think back to as we consider the ways high-usage RBs can fail to produce massive fantasy points — I’m not immediately jumping into that to take some Zero RB victory lap; I truly believe we continue to move down a path in the NFL where these pass-first offenses can essentially render even high-snap RBs the third or fourth most important fantasy pieces in their offenses in individual games. That’s a really important thing to keep in mind as we move forward, and we saw it again on Sunday from guys like Najee Harris and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Obviously those guys still have important roles, as does Ezekiel Elliott despite his poor performance in this game, and they will all have their moments.
I don’t expect we’ll see as much passing from these offenses on a weekly basis, especially since the close game late led to the type of fertile fantasy scoring environment we love. But it’s obviously notable that both teams came out throwing heavily. Here’s an interesting way to look at it:
This game was the #NFL’s first since wild ’19 Bucs-Rams game where one team had 390+ yards passing and the other had 375+, according to TruMedia. The team with 390+ lost both.And here’s an exciting note that also implies different defenses could lead to different run/pass splits for the Cowboys.
Elliott looked great as a pass blocker, and I don’t say that facetiously. He played a monster snap share and showed there was a reason he was on the field. But Tony Pollard also got some designed touches. Elliott ran routes on 71% of dropbacks while Pollard was out there for just 21%, so the four to two target differential in favor of Pollard is unlikely to stick most weeks. At the same time, some of Pollard’s role was designed to get him touches, whereas Elliott, it could be said, ran a lot of “empty” routes when Dak Prescott was going to be looking and likely to be throwing downfield. Elliott’s value takes a real hit relative to his ADP all offseason simply with the knowledge this can happen even in a high snap share situation, and his strong pass-blocking can work against him in some respects, even as he got out in a route at a high clip. Some of those are plays where he’s first reading if there is a blitzer, then releasing, and he’s not a likely target for Prescott. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s run defense is stout and this was close to Elliott’s worst matchup for production. He’ll have better games going forward, and Pollard, I suspect, won’t be up over eight fantasy points most weeks while Elliott is healthy, given Pollard’s usage here.
Leonard Fournette is a great example of the data notes I made in the introduction. He played a huge role, but largely because Ronald Jones was benched for an early fumble. Fournette looked like Fournette, and produced 10.9 PPR points with his five receptions accounting for roughly half of that. Bruce Arians intimated Jones got down on himself, so Jones took to Twitter to say he was ready if called on, which seems like the worst possible way to get out of the doghouse. Giovani Bernard played sparingly, but did run routes on 30% of dropbacks to 58% for Fournette, and I wonder if Bernard’s ankle was the issue here. I think he’s worth holding, especially given how much better of a passing-down back he is than Fournette. But as for Fournette, the specifics of his Week 1 role almost don’t matter; he wasn’t significantly productive in the role anyway, and one or both of the other backs will likely play more going forward. More to the point, the Bucs looked even more likely to go full Bills and ignore the RBs in their offense than the Cowboys. It’s almost certainly the case that the best back on this team is no more than the fifth best offensive weapon in this offense, and Arians and Tom Brady don’t seem to care whether RBs traditionally got 50% of the touches in an offense.
As for the downfield weapons, I’m a bit concerned about Mike Evans (6-3-24). It’s just one game, and he played a big role and ran a ton of routes, but I mentioned in my Offseason Stealing Signals how good Antonio Brown (7-5-121-1) still was at earning targets on a per-route basis, and while I failed to follow that logic enough to think Brown was a target himself in drafts, his presence is real. Then Chris Godwin (14-9-105-1) seemed to get open at will and could have had an absolute monster game if he either hadn’t fumbled right before the goal-line or reeled in the deep pass that he had to make an adjustment on. Or if he had both of those plays. Add in Rob Gronkowski (8-8-90-2) looking fantastic, and the tough thing for Evans as a big-bodied WR who needs the occasional jump ball is that there are a lot of other players in the offense who look very difficult to guard. This passing game is probably at its best with Evans as more or less a decoy, and while I do think he’ll put up plenty of stats and probably have a 1,000-yard season like always, I don’t think the slow production last year is necessarily going to bounce back. I think I’d take Brown over him straight up today.
Amari Cooper (16-13-139-2) had a monster day, especially in the second half, where he made a lot of relatively easy plays on shorter looks. That’s all good and not meant to be a knock, but he finished with a 7.9 aDOT compared to CeeDee Lamb’s 10.6, and while Lamb (15-7-104-1) left some production on the field in the form of a couple of drops, I still like the youngster more going forward. It’s worth noting Cooper ran routes on 94% of dropbacks while Lamb was only in a route 76% of the time, something I have a hard time understanding but don’t expect to continue with Michael Gallup (7-4-36) now out. The inverse of the route point is that Lamb racked up one fewer target and more air yards on fewer routes, which validates the TPRR notes from his rookie season I discussed back in August. (Lamb’s 32% TPRR in Week 1 was elite, while Cooper was also fantastic at 29%.) He looks like a superstar.
Gallup looked solid early before his calf injury that will reportedly sideline him for 3-5 weeks, and that will open things up for Lamb to play more, especially in two-WR sets. Cedrick Wilson (3-3-24) was the next man up, running routes on 35% of dropbacks (Gallup got to 60% himself before leaving in the third quarter). Wilson is definitely a name to watch in deeper leagues given the offense and his strong production back at Boise St.
Dalton Schultz (6-6-45) ran routes on 63% of dropbacks to Blake Jarwin’s 56% (4-3-20), so we had a TE split, but also a solid chunk of plays where both were on the field, explaining Lamb’s routes not being quite as high. To me, it seemed like Schultz was the new Jason Witten while Jarwin was the old Jarwin in a souped-up version of the role he used to occupy alongside Witten.
Signal: Buccaneers, Cowboys — very willing to go pass-first and lean on WR talent; Mike Evans — will still produce, but in a tough spot in a loaded passing game where he’s the least likely to create his own separation (think he’ll be up-and-down and there’s a very limited full-season ceiling case relative to what his ADP implied)
Noise: Leonard Fournette — massive role (Ronald Jones benched, Gio Bernard maybe not fully healthy; CeeDee Lamb — 76% routes (likely to add routes in two-WR sets with both TEs on the field, with Michael Gallup injured)
Steelers 23, Bills 16
RB Snap Notes: Najee Harris: 100%, Devin Singletary: 75%, Matt Breida: 12%
WR Snap Notes: JuJu Smith-Schuster: 91%, Diontae Johnson: 76% (briefly banged up), Chase Claypool: 67%, Stefon Diggs: 93%, Emmanuel Sanders: 93%, Cole Beasley: 91%, Gabriel Davis: 51%
TE Snap Notes: Pat Freiermuth: 50%, Eric Ebron: 47%, Dawson Knox: 56%
Key Stat: Ben Roethlisberger — 5.7 yards passing aDOT (tied fourth lowest in Week 1)
Najee Harris’ role was incredible. We knew he’d play a ton, but he played 100% of snaps, which is rare for a RB. He ran routes on 86% of dropbacks, which is fantastic. The biggest reason he didn’t have a bigger day is the Steelers trailed 10-0 at half, and 10-6 after three quarters, and they had 35 dropbacks against 17 designed runs. It’s not ideal that he was inefficient as a runner (16-45), nor that the WRs were way more of a focus for Pittsburgh’s passing game then getting Harris the ball that way (3-1-4 through the air), but it’s hard to consistently fail with this big of a role. His Week 1 outcome was a lot like Zeke’s, except his role was even bigger and the Steelers are a little less likely to run solely through their passing game.
I make that last point because Ben Roethlisberger looked pretty terrible as a passer. Hopefully that was just a blip, but we’ve heard concerns all offseason, so it seems like it’s probably not. JuJu Smith-Schuster (8-4-52) ran routes on every dropback, and his 6.3 aDOT was low but actually higher than Diontae Johnson’s 5.1. Johnson went 10-5-36-1, and missed a few snaps after being briefly banged up in the first half, but returned pretty quickly and made a nice TD catch in the second half. Chase Claypool (5-3-45 with a 25-yard rush) was still in his sort of rotational WR3 role from late last season, and Roethlisberger’s arm strength hurts him the most. Claypool racked up air yards last year, and his 12.2 aDOT here was clearly the highest of the main offensive players, but that’s sort of the point — that’s only about a yard higher than average for all WRs, and Claypool was up at 13.2 last year. Roethlisberger only targeted him five times, too, so put differently, Claypool only had 61 total air yards as the deep option.
Rookie TE Pat Freiermuth (1-1-24) ran routes on 34% of dropbacks, and out-snapped Eric Ebron (2-1-19), though Ebron ran routes on 49% of dropbacks. The better all-around TE, Freiermuth will likely only see his role grow as the season goes on. He’s a nice late-season upside stash in deep and TE Premium leagues.
The Zack Moss inactive was a surprise, but he’d dealt with health issues throughout August and it’s a long season. My guess is the Bills knew they were going to go pass-first against the Steelers’ tough defense, and deprioritized the RB position. It will be very interesting to see what happens with Moss in Week 2, but I’m not planning to cut him immediately in all leagues or anything like that. Devin Singletary played a bigger role with Matt Breida as the No. 2 than he typically did last year alongside Moss, and Singletary had both a carry and a reception inside the green zone en route to four HVT. He didn’t score, but that’s much better usage than we saw in 2020 when he found the end zone just twice. Singletary also ran routes on 66% of dropbacks and saw five targets and three receptions, while ripping off 72 rushing yards on just 11 carries. He’s not an RB1 or anything, but he’s very usable right now. Breida just spelled him and had zero HVT among his four rush attempts.
The Bills did come out passing heavily, with 26 first-half pass attempts against just five RB rush attempts (all Singletary). Their passing game was maybe a bit off, but that’s maybe to be expected against Pittsburgh. Per the broadcast, Stefon Diggs (14-9-69) was a focal point for Pittsburgh. I always find broadcast notes pretty fascinating — those production meetings are basically weekly interviews with the coaches and players, and the broadcasters share what they learned during the game. It gives us a nice sneak peek behind the curtains that we rarely get otherwise. Honestly, given how much we prioritize beat reporter observations, I’d say these mid-game comments are pretty widely under-leveraged in fantasy. Anyway, the Steelers reportedly felt they underestimated Diggs when these teams met last year, and then Diggs still saw 14 targets and caught nine balls in a tough matchup. It was also encouraging to see him get some deep targets and rack up 150 air yards. He’s going to smash this year.
Cole Beasley (13-8-60) resumed his heavily-targeted No. 2 role, while Emmanuel Sanders (8-4-52) racked up 149 air yards of his own, not far off from Diggs on far fewer targets. It was interesting to see Sanders in the downfield role and with an aDOT of 18.6, and while Gabriel Davis (5-2-40-1) remained the clear No. 4, his skill set seems to fit that role better. We’ll have to track Davis’s usage throughout the season, but even as the No. 4 and with all of the top three over 90% routes, Davis ran routes on 61% of dropbacks because of the Bills’ heavy use of four-WR formations. Dawson Knox (4-4-41) was at a 45% route share and is not likely to have a big enough role to be consistently fantasy relevant.
Signal: Najee Harris — 100% snap share; Ben Roethlisberger — didn’t look great throwing downfield, which impacts Chase Claypool most negatively; Pat Freiermuth — solid role out of the gate; Devin Singletary — 4 HVT, 2 green zone touches, better role than we saw out of any Bills’ back most weeks last year; Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders — both over 90% routes per dropback
Noise: Stefon Diggs — 69 yards on 14 targets (saw 150 air yards, splash plays will come)
Eagles 32, Falcons 6
RB Snap Notes: Miles Sanders: 66%, Kenneth Gainwell: 35%, Mike Davis: 75%, Cordarrelle Patterson: 33%
WR Snap Notes: DeVonta Smith: 87%, Jalen Reagor: 70%, Quez Watkins: 48%, Calvin Ridley: 85%, Russell Gage: 68%, Olamide Zaccheaus: 26%
TE Snap Notes: Dallas Goedert: 73%, Zach Ertz: 58% (2020 avg: 81%), Kyle Pitts: 68%, Hayden Hurst: 60%
Key Stat: Eagles — 8 RB targets, only two RBs logged offensive snaps
Jalen Hurts looks like he could be an absolute monster, which was always known, as were some risks. If that happens, it will be said that people undervalued his rushing ability and his overall ceiling, when of course his ADP slipping from the earlier offseason had much more to do with the team seemingly not buying all the way into him as their QB. The upside was always obvious, and he showed it here, with 62 rushing yards to go along with 264 yards and three TDs passing. The Falcons didn’t pose a major threat defensively in this game, and Hurts’ average intended air yards of just 3.7 were lowest among all Week 1 passers, so there will be games that don’t work out as perfectly. But in fantasy, it’s frankly tough to fail with the type of rushing ability Hurts offers, and if the offense is actually strong then Hurts could be a league-winner.
Boston Scott didn’t play outside of special teams, which was great news for rookie Kenneth Gainwell in this two-man show of a backfield. Miles Sanders was the clear lead, and Gainwell got the final three carries after the game was decided, but Sanders did play two drives into the fourth quarter so the splits here are fairly indicative of what I expect going forward. Sanders ran routes on 49% of dropbacks while Gainwell was at 31%, and they split the rush attempts 15 to 9 and the targets 5 to 3, both in favor of Sanders. Gainwell got the lone green zone touch, which he converted for an 8-yard score, but he likely came on the field because Sanders had three touches on the four prior plays, including a 25-yard gain on the play immediately preceding Gainwell’s touchdown. So it was a breather for Sanders more than a specific usage thing. They wound up splitting the HVT four to three in favor of Sanders, and it looks like something of a 65/35 split between two good backs for the foreseeable future. Gainwell had a great prospect profile and makes for a strong add this week in any leagues where he’s available, as he could have standalone value plus contingency upside should Sanders get injured. The overall upside in the offense does remain somewhat in question, but you have to be encouraged by Week 1, and especially the eight RB targets in only a two-player split.
We got the three main WRs we expected from Philly, with the two tight ends not playing together quite as much as last year. The WRs were interestingly in a pretty clear hierarchy. DeVonta Smith (8-6-71-1) had a nice TD early on a play where he was the designed first read. He ran routes on 95% of snaps and was immediately the clear No. 1. Jalen Reagor (6-6-49-1) scored late on a bubble screen, but ran routes on just 69% of dropbacks. Quez Watkins (3-3-23) caught all his passes early and wound up with a route share of just 49%, behind both TEs. Dallas Goedert (5-4-42-1) was solid and ran routes on 69% of dropbacks, while Zach Ertz (2-2-34) played a role much smaller than his 2020 numbers (59% routes). All the WRs and TEs sort of did what ADP suggested they might.
The Falcons were atrocious, and I’m not sure there’s much we can read into. While the Eagles lost two-TE snaps, the Falcons gained them, as expected with Arthur Smith bringing his offense over from Tennessee. That was good news for Kyle Pitts (8-4-31 on 79% routes) despite the poor result. Hayden Hurst (4-4-28 on 64% routes) also retains some value. Calvin Ridley (8-5-51) was the obvious No. 1, while Russell Gage (2-0-0) ran routes on 79% of dropbacks, so he’s got that going for him.
Cordarrelle Patterson got a carry out of the I-formation in the second quarter, so that’s where we’re at here. Mike Davis rushed 15 times and saw six targets, running routes on a massive-for-a-RB 79% of dropbacks. Patterson is the clear No. 2, running routes on 21% of dropbacks and carrying seven times to go with two targets. Davis got the lone green zone carry from the 6-yard line, but was unable to score on that or haul in either of a pair of green zone targets. His four HVT could grow given his routes and that green zone role.
Signal: Jalen Hurts — looks poised to have a fantastic fantasy season; Kenneth Gainwell — strong Week 1 role as the No. 2, solid RB add; Eagles — WR and TE usage followed ADP expectations; Mike Davis — four HVT, green zone usage
Noise: Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts — roles were strong, better days should come
Chargers 20, Washington 16
RB Snap Notes: Austin Ekeler: 58% (omitting Week 17 and Week 4 injury, 2020 season low: 57%), Larry Rountree: 27%, Justin Jackson: 14%, Antonio Gibson: 65% (2020 high: 65%), J.D. McKissic: 36% (2020 low: 41%), Jaret Patterson: 7%
WR Snap Notes: Keenan Allen: 83%, Mike Williams: 75%, Jalen Guyton: 65%, Josh Palmer: 17%, K.J. Hill: 9%, Terry McLaurin: 100%, Dyami Brown: 93%, Adam Humphries: 60%
TE Snap Notes: Jared Cook: 58%, Donald Parham: 51%, Logan Thomas: 100%
Key Stat: Austin Ekeler — 4 green zone touches, 0 total targets
The Ryan Fitzpatrick injury was a major bummer, but it sounds like he could be back relatively soon, perhaps before the midway point of the season. He suffered a hip subluxation early in the second quarter, and Taylor Heinicke took over from there. Washington went extremely run-heavy, with a 21/27 pass/run ratio.
The two high-profile backs in this game had some very interesting data points. Austin Ekeler wasn’t targeted, but he did run 25 routes (51% of dropbacks), so there’s not much to worry about there. Meanwhile, Ekeler racked up four green zone touches — he scored from 3 yards out, but also got carries from the 4-, 10-, and 9-yard lines, and they were all on different drives. That’s massive. Ekeler’s likely huge receiving role paired with a legitimate green zone role could make him an HVT superstar this year. Rookie Larry Rountree operated as the main No. 2, but didn’t get any carries in the high-leverage area and also wasn’t targeted; he’s a mild add but not someone to go nuts over as the HVT upside looks limited. There’s some chance, of course, he could get some green zone looks eventually. Justin Jackson played sparingly. The snap share wasn’t there for Ekeler, but I’m much more bullish now than I was coming into Week 1. If a leaguemate is nervous about his hamstring or the lack of receiving in Week 1, he’s a trade target.
Antonio Gibson meanwhile got 20 carries as Washington went run-heavy, but he also saw five targets and caught three passes while J.D. McKissic was targeted just once. Gibson’s 13 routes don’t jump out, but McKissic ran just nine; it wasn’t unheard of for Gibson to run more routes than McKissic last year, but in 2020 McKissic averaged 25 routes per game while Gibson was down at 13.5. Again, there were fewer dropbacks in Week 1, so that’s part of why the numbers were lower. But Gibson ran a route on 50% of dropbacks, which is a pretty strong number, and McKissic ran just nine routes here (35%). That gap is going to be worth monitoring, because if Gibson holds onto more routes than McKissic, he — like Ekeler — will have gained a lot of HVT upside here in 2021.
Washington didn’t have much in terms of receiving numbers to go off, but Terry McLaurin (4-4-62) was out there for every snap, Logan Thomas (3-3-30-1) was as well, and Dyami Brown (4-1-(-2)) ran routes on 92% of dropbacks. It wasn’t clear if Brown would get this much run even with Curtis Samuel on IR, but it appears he’s going to get all the opportunity in the world to make an early splash. Unfortunately, Fitzpatrick’s absence mutes the optimism in this passing game. Heinicke isn’t atrocious, probably, but just the play-calling splits alone are pretty concerning. It’s obviously possible they were conservative because Heinicke wasn’t as prepared as they’d like, and things can open up. I wouldn’t expect them to be at just 135 team passing yards again next week. Adam Humphries (2-2-10 on 62% routes) was also involved.
The Chargers threw 47 times despite leading for a substantial percentage of the game, which is exciting. Keenan Allen (13-9-100) predictably led the way, and Mike Williams (12-8-82-1) showed some strong target upside that we haven’t always seen from him. Williams notably only had a 9.8 aDOT, so he was earning these looks at shallower depths, something he’s never really done consistently to this point in his career. If you were buying this is the year Williams would put it all together, you’re loving Week 1.
Beyond the top two, Jalen Guyton (5-3-49) ran windsprints on 71% of dropbacks and Jared Cook (8-5-56) was in a route 63% of the time as the next two targets. Donald Parham (1-0-0) mixed in 29% of the time — ahead of Stephen Anderson (2-1-1 at 14%) if you were concerned about the TE2 battle. Rookie Josh Palmer (1-1-17) had just a 16% route share, but that can always grow. For now, it looks like a two-man passing game with Allen and Williams as the focal points.
Signal: Austin Ekeler — four green zone carries, all on different drives, the HVT ceiling is the roof; Antonio Gibson — 13 routes to J.D. McKissic’s 9 (not quite as :fire emoji: as Ekeler’s note, but very positive for HVT upside); Dyami Brown — routes on 92% of dropbacks; Mike Williams — 12 targets at a lower 9.8 aDOT was a great sign
Noise: Austin Ekeler — zero targets (25 routes, 51% of dropbacks); Washington — 135 passing yards
Cardinals 38, Titans 13
RB Snap Notes: Chase Edmonds: 58% (2020 avg: 47%), James Conner: 49% (Kenyan Drake 2020 avg: 58%), Derrick Henry: 63%, Jeremy McNichols: 36%
WR Snap Notes: DeAndre Hopkins: 88%, A.J. Green: 80%, Christian Kirk: 57%, Rondale Moore: 29%, A.J. Brown: 81%, Julio Jones: 78%, Chester Rogers: 61%
TE Snap Notes: Maxx Williams: 80%, Anthony Firkser: 48%, Geoff Swaim: 39%
Key Stat: Chase Edmonds — 6 HVT, James Conner — 1 HVT
Holy crap, there’s still so much to write and I’m going way too long on all these games. I am not in midseason form.
Tennessee got trounced, and they looked bad doing it, putting up just 248 total yards. Derrick Henry (17-58 rushing, 4-3-19 receiving) was a little more involved in the passing game than usual, but Jeremy McNichols (4-3-24 receiving) ran just one fewer route, so Henry (34% routes) showed some of the game script sensitivity concerns here.
Rondale Moore only ran routes on 39% of dropbacks, which was disappointing to see, but he was more productive (5-4-68) in that small role than A.J. Green was (6-2-25) while running routes on 89% of dropbacks. Moore probably doesn’t fit as the outside guy (79% slot snaps), and Christian Kirk (5-5-70-2) played 96% of his snaps in the slot and looked fantastic, so we might be stuck with Green for a bit. But man, Green looked as absolutely dusted as he did in 2020, and Moore looked strong in his debut, so I’m not sure how Arizona will justify running Green out there every snap and not playing Moore. That could ultimately lead to Kirk getting kicked back outside, which wasn’t great for him in 2020. The weekly usage here will be very interesting; Kirk is a solid pickup for now, but I’m not going to break the bank, mostly because he was wildly efficient on just five targets (a solid but not spectacular 0.23 TPRR, while Moore was up at a ridiculous 0.36). To be clear, I do think Kirk is worth an add, and I’ve liked him ever since he was a prospect. But he’s had splash games before, and he didn’t answer the longer-term questions about his ability to earn targets. Moore, meanwhile, seems bound to play more as this season goes on. That’s what happens for rookies, especially ones that produce right away like he started to here in Week 1. Do not drop him.
Kyler Murray was fantastic, and I wish I had him in more leagues. That’s about all I have there. I really hope Justin Fields is great because late-round QB was my preferred strategy this year to attack the youngsters, but some of the pricier dual threat guys looked great in Week 1. DeAndre Hopkins (8-6-83-2) was also electric, and there was a real dichotomy between Green falling away from an end zone target in the first quarter and Hopkins making an acrobatic toe-tapping catch for a score two plays later.
Chase Edmonds saw a bump in his snap share relative to 2020, and he dominated the HVT, which was a positive sign for his value. He wasn’t the workhorse some envisioned, but a lead role with the HVT edge can be very fruitful. Edmonds ran routes on 69% of dropbacks, while James Conner wasn’t targeted and looked like the short side of the committee. Conner did appear to have the green zone edge, though. Edmonds got the first green zone touch of the game (a no gain from the 9-yard line), but Conner was in for three consecutive plays from the 5-yard line on the team’s next trip to the green zone (all passes), and Conner later got a carry from the 8-yard line and gained 6 yards, before Kyler Murray scored his 2-yard rushing TD on a bootleg that also featured Conner in the game getting the fake up the middle. So on balance, Conner looked very much like he was in the Kenyan Drake role from 2020, except with fewer snaps than Drake averaged, while Edmonds was in a souped-up version of his own role from last year.
A.J. Brown (8-4-49-1 with 83 air yards) didn’t have quite the Week 1 explosion I was hoping for, but he did find the end zone in a poor offensive performance for Tennessee overall. Julio Jones (6-3-29) struggled. The Titans also moved away from their heavy two-TE sets, which may have been game script related, but Chester Rogers (6-4-62 on 75% routes) got some legitimate run in three-WR sets. Anthony Firkser (4-3-19 on 61% routes) led what was kind of a three-TE rotation, with blocking TE Geoff Swaim playing a decent amount and MyCole Pruitt also rotating in. Swaim only had one target and ran routes on just 27% of dropbacks, but it was an end zone target he nearly brought in until it was swiped away. There will still be some of these two-TE looks, and I’d expect more in plus script. Firkser’s route share could bump up in those situations.
Signal: Chase Edmonds — strong side of the committee, receiving work (James Conner — short side, green zone snap edge); Christian Kirk — 96% slot usage (that’s new, and looks good, but also his efficiency is noisy on just five targets)
Noise: Rondale Moore — routes on 39% of dropbacks (not irregular for a rookie in Week 1, may even last a month or more, but I expect this to rise and his role to be strong later in the year); Titans — 248 total yards (this would have been their second-lowest total last year; I’m not ready to panic)
Texans 37, Jaguars 21
RB Snap Notes: Mark Ingram: 46%, David Johnson: 28%, Phillip Lindsay: 26%, James Robinson: 64% (2020 avg: 70%), Carlos Hyde: 34%
WR Snap Notes: Brandin Cooks: 78%, Nico Collins: 55%, Chris Conley: 51%, Danny Amendola: 22%, Marvin Jones: 91%, D.J. Chark: 84%, Laviska Shenault: 70% (2020 avg: 65%)
TE Snap Notes: Pharaoh Brown: 76%, Jordan Akins: 60%, James O’Shaughnessy: 80%
Key Stat: D.J. Chark — 199 air yards (second most in Week 1)
I thought this game was going to suck, and it kind of did, but I wound up with a ton of notes from two teams with all new trends. For what it’s worth, I’m not of the mind Houston is going to be good — I actually picked them to win in a couple places last week, and the second part of my prediction was they might then lose every other game. They were better than I expected as a team, but I still have little interest in these RBs. All three scored, reminding us of the split, and yet none reached 15 fantasy points despite a touchdown. This could very easily be the most RB points the trio combines for in a game all season, and we didn’t get a ceiling game from any of them.
Mark Ingram wound up amassing a whopping 26 carries for 85 rushing yards, but he was fourth among the team’s backs in routes per dropback at 11%, and they won’t have positive script like this most weeks. An inefficient early-down grinder with no receiving role in a bad offense is a massive stayaway, and while he tied for the Week 1 lead among all RBs with four green zone touches, David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay also each had one, plus they were each also targeted an additional time in close. I don’t see Houston running nearly as many plays inside the 10-yard line going forward as they did in this one.
Lindsay looked OK, but had a rough role, as Johnson led the backs in routes and Rex Burkhead was second, so Lindsay was basically the backup early-down guy and ran routes on just 22% of dropbacks. Lindsay did get a jet motion tip pass in the green zone but he dropped it, and Ingram got carries on the next two plays.
James Robinson played a decent snap share despite the poor results, and his 63% routes per dropback was especially interesting. Robinson was split out a decent amount — one play that stuck out was a target he drew on a slant route late in the game. He was targeting six times, catching three for 29 yards, and my read was Urban Meyer’s answer to losing Travis Etienne is to have Robinson in that role and Carlos Hyde in the role we all assumed Robinson would be in. That could actually be really exciting for Robinson’s fantasy prospects, especially if the Jaguars figure some stuff out offensively, because they looked terrible as a team in Week 1. It’s also positive for Hyde having some value that he got nine of 14 RB carries. Hyde looked a lot like Ingram in terms of future value, despite Ingram obviously producing much more in Week 1.
Brandin Cooks had a strong role as the clear lead WR. He racked up 132 air yards and turned seven targets into five catches for 132 yards. The dude is very good, and Tyrod Taylor looked like his old Buffalo self, but I’m not ready to buy into anything here until we see it against a better team. Houston ran 41 times against 33 pass attempts, and pass volume is going to be a major issue when they don’t control games and run 75 plays like they did in Week 1. The entire team outcome here will reverberate for weeks in the stats you look at, so try to keep in mind this was a high-end fantasy outcome and, again, might be their single best game all year.
Rookie Nico Collins (3-1-7) had a strong role for Week 1, running routes on 73% of dropbacks and seeing an end zone fade he nearly brought in with one hand before it was called back for offensive pass interference. We’d expect a rookie’s role to only grow from Week 1, so this is all very positive. Danny Amendola went 5-5-34-1 despite running routes on just 43% of dropbacks. Again, not someone to chase. Jordan Akins (2-0-0) ran slightly more routes than Pharaoh Brown (5-4-67) in a TE split you also don’t want to chase.
Laviska Shenault had a disappointing role in a game where Trevor Lawrence therw 51 times. Shenault totaled just 28 air yards on his nine targets, and while he caught seven balls for 50 yards, Marvin Jones (9-5-77-1 with 104 air yards) and especially D.J. Chark (12-3-86-1 with 199 air yards) saw much more valuable downfield looks. The flip side of this for Shenault is a bunch of his nine looks were schemed, and I’d expect him to add some downfield work at some point. Chark and Jones both benefitted from the elevated pass volume, but the Jaguars going 51/16 in terms of pass/run ratio was probably a solid signal they’re willing to air it out when trailing, which they may be often.
Chris Manhertz scored a TD but ran routes on just 13% of dropbacks for Jacksonville. James O’Shaughnessy was way up at 77% routes, and his 8-6-48 receiving line makes him a vaguely interesting TE in deep leagues. I say vaguely because he’s not particularly good and Jacksonville likely won’t throw 50+ times per game, but 77% routes is 77% routes.
Signal: James Robinson — 64% routes, 6 targets (looked like he was in the role we assumed Travis Etienne would play, while Carlos Hyde was in the role we assumed Robinson would); D.J. Chark — 199 air yards; Texans — RB rotation; Nico Collins — 73% routes
Noise: Texans — RB fantasy points (might be highest total all year); Mark Ingram — 26 carries (game script, team play volume); Laviska Shenault — 3.1 aDOT (short-area targets were nice, lack of downfield stuff can’t remain this extreme)
49ers 41, Lions 33
RB Snap Notes: Elijah Mitchell: 64%, JaMycal Hasty: 29%, Raheem Mostert: 7% (injured), D’Andre Swift: 68% (2020 avg: 48%), Jamaal Williams: 35%
WR Snap Notes: Deebo Samuel: 84%, Trent Sherfield: 49%, Brandon Aiyuk: 47% (2020 low: 71%), Mohamed Sanu: 36%, Kalif Raymond: 75%, Amon-Ra St. Brown: 64%, Trinity Benson: 53%, Tyrell Williams: 42% (concussion), Quintez Cephus: 35%
TE Snap Notes: George Kittle: 95%, T.J. Hockenson: 85% (2020 avg: 73%)
Key Stat: Lions — 84 plays, 57 pass attempts
This was a fun game, and also a great example of how game situation can massively impact final stats. The Lions recovered an onside kick, then later got a fumble recovery when Trey Flowers punched the ball out from Deebo Samuel on what could have been a game-sealing first down. That generated two additional fourth quarter drives they might not have otherwise gotten, and Detroit actually made those count as well, so overall Detroit wound up running a massive 84 total offensive plays with a 57/24 pass/run split — and a whopping 32 of those plays came in the fourth quarter alone, of which only one single play was a rush attempt.
T.J. Hockenson (10-8-97-1 with a 2-point conversion) had a monster game, and he notably had seven of those targets in the first half. D’Andre Swift (11-8-65-1 receiving, 11-39-0 rushing) was also heavily involved in the passing game, and Swift had five of his targets in the first half. Jamaal Williams (9-8-56 receiving, 9-54-1 rushing) had a huge game, too, and Williams had three first-half targets, tying Tyrell Williams (3-2-14, left with a concussion) for the third-most first-half targets behind Hockenson and Swift. In other words, we saw what I’d been theorizing this offseason we might, where the passing game would flow through the RB and TE position more than WR. In the first half, T. Williams’ three targets and one Amon-Ra St. Brown (4-2-23) target were the only four looks the WRs got.
Both Swift and J. Williams racked up second-half receptions, and they wound up tied for the second-most HVT on the week with nine each behind only Christian McCaffrey, but they were also very involved in the first half and this appears to be an offense that is going to generate plenty of HVT. Swift ran routes on 65% of dropbacks and was the clear preferred pass-catching back, while J. Williams ran routes on 32% of dropbacks. Hockenson was way up at 84%, by the way, a step forward in usage for him from last year. Swift, too, saw a jump in snap share and usage from last season’s trends, and he looked just as explosive as ever. I’m very excited about all my Swift and Hockenson exposure.
Quintez Cephus (7-3-12-1) and Trinity Benson (6-3-19) wound up as the most-targeted WRs in what became a big rotation after Tyrell went out. Neither Cephus or Benson saw a first-half target, so I’m not particularly interested in these guys, especially given the RB and TE target notes.
Raheem Mostert suffered a knee injury in the first quarter that is expected to keep him out half the season, and the 49ers had somewhat surprisingly decided to deactive Trey Sermon, which left Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty as the backs. Mitchell, a sixth-round rookie with an explosive profile and big speed, broke off an early 38-yard touchdown, and wound up with a very nice 19-104-1 rushing line on the day. Hasty meanwhile got his only carry from the 3-yard line and caught the only pass out of the backfield while splitting the passing-down work with Mitchell, so Mitchell was treated as more of a TRAP back, which is to say he didn’t get any High-Value Touches. Still, Kyle Shanahan’s offense is one of the very few where HVTs aren’t the end-all, be-all, and Mitchell’s explosiveness could make him a consistently viable big-play threat much in the way Mostert has been. Mitchell is well worth a pickup as the likely top add, but Hasty is, too (I’d try to get him cheaply, because I suspect he’ll be third in the pecking order, but there’s certainly upside as the only one of the three RBs left who isn’t a rookie). Sermon, one would expect, will be activated next week, and knowing Shanahan it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Sermon led the backfield in touches next week. You absolutely should not cut Sermon, and all three of these guys should be rostered in a valuable and unsettled backfield.
It’s remarkable that Trey Lance threw his first NFL TD and Deebo Samuel went off and Brandon Aiyuk barely played and I haven’t gotten to any of that until now, but this game was crazy. I’m not sure the deal with Aiyuk, much like I’m not sure about Sermon. I got a message about the two of them potentially missing curfew, which seems like the obviously perfect made up story to try to explain this situation. I’m definitely not saying that’s true, but I bring it up because it was a reminder that, yeah, we don’t always know the whole story. What’s pretty weird is Aiyuk still played about half the snaps but wasn’t targeted — he was in to run block on 11 snaps, then also in for 15 passing plays, so I have no idea what is going on here. My expectation is that he will absolutely still be a big part of this offense this season, and if you’re in a league where he gets cut or something crazy, you pick him up. But I’m also not starting him until we see his role rebound.
Deebo (12-9-189-1) was a monster, getting some of the jet motion tip pass stuff but also winning down the field. George Kittle (5-4-78) had a relatively quiet day, and Trent Sherfield (3-2-23-1) established himself as the next WR up, I guess. Kittle only ran routes on 57% of dropbacks, and Sherfield was only at 50% with the other contributors even lower, so Deebo’s 89% made him the main target on a lot of plays. Deebo nearly had another touchdown, before his first, but he kind of turned awkwardly and fell out of bounds inside the 5-yard line on a reception moving toward the sideline.
Lance looked sweet, but we didn’t get to see a ton of him. I wouldn’t play Jimmy Garoppolo while Lance is coming in for red zone packages, though. Garoppolo’s stats were juiced quite a bit by Samuel’s 79-yard touchdown.
Signal: T.J. Hockenson, D’Andre Swift — 12 combined first-half targets (rest of team: 8), focal points of the passing game; Elijah Mitchell — explosive, didn’t get any HVT, still a high-value waiver add; 49ers backfield — unsettled and valuable, so JaMycal Hasty is also a waiver option, and don’t cut Trey Sermon
Noise: Lions — 84 plays, 57 pass attempts (massive fourth quarter volume boost due to onside kick, fumble recovery); D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams — 9 HVT each (the split won’t be this lucrative for both most weeks, and I strongly prefer Swift, but Williams is a solid player to have unless you can get someone to overpay in a trade based on that Week 1 performance); Brandon Aiyuk — I can’t explain the usage, but I don’t expect it to stick
Seahawks 28, Colts 16
RB Snap Notes: Chris Carson: 78%, Rashaad Penny: 13% (injured), DeeJay Dallas: 6%, Jonathan Taylor: 55%, Nyheim Hines: 45%
WR Snap Notes: DK Metcalf: 93%, Tyler Lockett: 85%, Freddie Swain: 43%, Dee Eskridge: 22% (concussion), Michael Pittman: 97%, Zach Pascal: 91%, Parris Campbell: 61%, Mike Strachan: 24%
TE Snap Notes: Gerald Everett: 72%, Will Dissly: 70%, Jack Doyle: 59%, Mo Alie-Cox: 51%, Kylen Granson: 9%
Key Stat: Jonathan Taylor — 9 HVT, 4 green zone touches (tied second most HVT in Week 1)
Monday Night Football is underway and I still have three games to go, good lord.
Seattle mostly appeared to be who we thought they were. Russell Wilson looked sweet. Went 18-for-23 and threw for 254 yards and four scores. The volume was limited because Seattle came out running a bit, and then Wilson’s own efficiency pushed them into a heavy plus script. Sometimes the limited pass attempt figures look worse than they are, when it’s the quarterback’s own production that created the low volume situation.
Tyler Lockett (5-4-100-2) and D.K. Metcalf (5-4-60-1) were both great on low volume, though they tied for the team lead in targets. I’ve talked about how Seattle has not had a consistent third weapon since Metcalf was drafted, and Gerald Everett (2-2-20-1) looked sweet but was in a split with Will Dissly (3-3-37). Everett ran routes on 61% of dropbacks while Dissly was up at 68%. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron brought over some of the two-TE stuff he’d done while coaching Everett with the Rams.
Chris Carson (3-3-26 receiving, 16-91 rushing) was the only other Seahawk with multiple targets, other Lockett, Metcalf, and the two TEs. Carson had a huge snap shared as Rashaad Penny left early with a calf injury that is likely to set him back multiple weeks. That’s yet another bummer for Penny, and Carson looks likely to be the main guy again.
On the Colts’ side, I found it interesting no other back got a touch behind Jonathan Taylor (17-56, 7-6-60) and Nyheim Hines (9-34, 8-6-48). That was sort of the hope for fantasy purposes, but it wasn’t certain. Taylor’s 55% snap share is fine — even down the stretch last year when he was smashing, he only broke a 70% share once, and he only broke 60% two other times last season. He ran routes on a solid 41% of dropbacks, got four green zone touches despite not being able to punch in a score, and tied for second on the week with the Detroit backs with 9 HVT. He had could have had a monster game. It also looks like the Colts were serious about using Hines more, and he ran routes on 50% of snaps. The overall RB targets were a very positive sign with Philip Rivers now gone, and the two backs handling all the work was also very positive.
The top Colts WRs played a lot more than in years past, with Michael Pittman (4-3-29 with routes on 98% of dropbacks) and Zach Pascal (5-4-43-2 with 93%) out there on nearly every pass play. Pascal is the guy who never goes away for fantasy, but this seemed inevitable with T.Y. Hilton out. Rookie Mike Strachan (2-2-26) got a little run (25% routes) and is a fun deep sleeper with some fantastic production metrics out of small-school Charleston and a 6-5, 223-pound frame with solid testing numbers. Parris Campbell (3-1-24) ran routes on 64% of dropbacks but it was Pascal who operated most out of the slot (89% of snaps). Campbell was only inside 13% of the time, so he appears to just be further down the depth chart. He’s cuttable.
The tight ends split for Indy, with Mo Alie-Cox (2-0-0) running 55% routes and Jack Doyle at 50% (4-3-21). There’s not much there.
Signal: Jonathan Taylor — 9 HVT, 4 green zone touches; Zach Pascal — primary slot option, but also stayed on for two-WR sets
Noise: Russell Wilson — 23 pass attempts (plus script, a victim of his own efficiency)
Bengals 27, Vikings 24
RB Snap Notes: Joe Mixon: 78% (2020 avg: 66%), Samaje Perine: 22%, Dalvin Cook: 71%, Ameer Abdullah: 11%, Alexander Mattison: 11%
WR Snap Notes: Ja’Marr Chase: 90%, Tee Higgins: 74% (injured), Tyler Boyd: 74%, Adam Thielen: 94%, Justin Jefferson: 92%, K.J. Osborn: 81%
TE Snap Notes: C.J. Uzomah: 74%, Drew Sample: 51%, Tyler Conklin: 71%, Chris Herndon: 14%
Key Stat: Joe Mixon — 78% snap share, 56% route share, 33 touches, 6 HVT
Well, Joe Mixon had a fantastic Week 1. His role was always expected to be this big, but part of my concern was what we saw from the lead backs in some other pass-heavy offenses. Cincinnati came out running early, though, with Joe Burrow not necessarily being 100%. It’s notable that despite a 78% snap share, 56% route share, and 33 overall touches, Mixon wound up with “just” six HVT. That’s not bad, but it’s also not amazing. He caught all four targets he saw, and added a pair of green zone touches, including his 2-yard touchdown. The path is definitely there for Mixon if he’s going to see massive touch counts, but he’s going to have to hold up to that workload, and with the WRs potentially being too good for him to get big targets, he’ll need to be efficient in the face of a potentially below average TRAP. I’m definitely nit-picking a bit, but the Bengals had decent game script and an overtime period in this game, and I don’t think every concern I had about negative scripts and what happens when Burrow is more in the flow of things was answered here.
Oh, hey, Ja’Marr Chase (7-5-101-1) can catch NFL footballs. Also, Tee Higgins (5-4-58-1) is good, despite getting banged up. Chase played nearly every snap, running routes on 94% of dropbacks, and looks like a weekly starter. Higgins, too, obviously, assuming health. Burrow didn’t look totally comfortable in this one, but I’m hopeful he’ll ease into the season a bit. Tyler Boyd (4-3-32) looked like he might be the most in need of more passing volume; both Boyd and Higgins ran routes on 84% of dropbacks. C.J. Uzomah (2-2-35) was also the clear TE in his return from an Achilles injury, running routes on 72% of dropbacks, so this looks like a pretty concentrated offense again. We love these concentrated 11 personnel offenses; they can be fantasy goldmines if they throw more than 27 passes, like Cincinnati did here.
Minnesota was a lot like Minnesota was in 2020, with Dalvin Cook (20-61-1 rushing, 7-6-43 receiving) doing his thing, Adam Thielen (10-9-92-2) continuing to prove he’ll never not score touchdowns, and Justin Jefferson (9-5-71) seeing plenty of volume as well. Kirk Cousins missed Jefferson a couple times, and then Jefferson definitely got jobbed out of the touchdown I referenced in the introduction.
The one major change was without either of Kyle Rudolph or the injured Irv Smith, Minnesota’s heavy two-TE sets were no more. Tyler Conklin (4-4-41) played a decent amount, but the newly acquired Chris Herndon (2-0-0) didn’t do much, and instead it was K.J. Osborn (9-7-76) looking like the first halfway decent No. 3 WR Minnesota has had since … when? Before Laquon Treadwell, right? Has it really been since Jarius Wright? Osborn probably isn’t a pickup in a slow offense behind the big two WRs, but he did run routes on 89% of dropbacks and look good doing it, so I’m not going to completely rule it out with a very limited TE presence right now. He’s worth watching.
Ameer Abdullah was also there to scare Alexander Mattison drafters about who the No. 2 is, which is what Abdullah’s lasting legacy will be.
Signal: Joe Mixon — huge role; Bengals — very concentrated offense (bingo!) using the same five guys in 11 personnel; C.J. Uzomah — viable TE pickup; K.J. Osborn — solid No. 3 WR role as Minnesota didn’t use nearly as many two-TE sets
Noise: Justin Jefferson — scored a touchdown that the refs, in my opinion, botched; Adam Thielen — he can’t keep getting away with this
Panthers 19, Jets 14
RB Snap Notes: Christian McCaffrey: 89%, Chuba Hubbard: 11%, Ty Johnson: 54%, Tevin Coleman: 26%, Michael Carter: 25%
WR Snap Notes: D.J. Moore: 81%, Robby Anderson: 81%, Terrace Marshall: 53%, Corey Davis: 89%, Elijah Moore: 86%, Braxton Berrios: 57%, Denzel Mims: 5%
TE Snap Notes: Ian Thomas: 55%, Dan Arnold: 52%, Tyler Kroft: 66%, Ryan Griffin: 48%
Key Stat: Christian McCaffrey — 11 HVT (first in Week 1)
We’ve made it to the last game, you guys. And it’s the D.J. Moore game. He got a jet motion tip pass, got a carry, returned a punt, had a bad drop, and Sam Darnold missed him on an open 15-yard out pattern, so it was an eventful game. The usage around the line of scrimmage was fantastic. Exactly what I was hoping to see. The punt was weird, but only happened once out of four total returns, and if anything it’s just another sign the team is seeing he is dynamic with the ball in his hands. He also got downfield looks, racking up 94 air yards with a solid 11.8 aDOT. He caught six of eight passes for 80 yards and added 14 rushing, and frankly both of the incompletions should have also been catches, one of which was his fault and one on Darnold. But yeah, he’s going to smash. We just need those touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey (9-9-89 receiving, 21-98 rushing) picked up right where he left off as an absolute fantasy god unlike any other mortals around him. He’s unimpeachably perfect as a fantasy player. We can only talk about what he means for everyone else. McCaffrey’s presence on short-area targets was bad news for Robby Anderson (3-1-57-1), who really thrived on those underneath looks last year and started 2021 with what would have been a three-target dud had he not hit on a long touchdown. You gotta be concerned if you’re an Anderson backer, but on a positive note he ran routes on 92% of dropbacks, so he was very active and should see his targets tick up more than this.
Terrace Marshall (6-3-26) was at 64% routes and saw solid volume in his debut, but he’s another rookie we’ll hope to see the role grow through the season. It’s tougher to see with him, because McCaffrey and Moore may already be boxing out Anderson, who is good, and so then how does Marshall jump well up the target totem pole? But chaos can strike, and Marshall is a good prospect that’s well worth holding after this solid Week 1 role.
Ian Thomas (2-1-17) and Dan Arnold (3-2-6) split the TE snaps, with Thomas getting a slight edge, but Arnold ran routes on 64% of dropbacks while Thomas was down at 33%. That’s an indication Arnold is the receiving TE, and while I’m not sure he’ll make an impact in this offense, he’s clearly the one you’d want.
My Tyler Kroft love was rewarded with the 5-3-26 dud it deserved, though he did run routes on 72% of dropbacks. I want to say that’s a good thing, but then Ryan Griffin got six targets (6-3-22) while running routes on just 26% of dropbacks, so honestly Kroft might just start losing routes to Griffin. The thesis with Kroft was he would be the clear TE, so he’s fine to cut bait on given Griffin being involved (you can also hold and hope those routes foretell something positive, but I’m trying to hedge here because I feel dumb for staking even a tiny amount of my credibility on Tyler Kroft in the first place).
Zach Wilson looked OK, and the Jets looked like they could have far more fantasy value than last year and their collective ADPs suggested. Corey Davis (7-5-97-2) had a very strong day, and he’s definitely good, but I’m not particularly worried he’s going to bury me. Elijah Moore (4-1-(-3)) wasn’t very productive, but he looked dynamic at times, and he’s the one that could really ignite this offense. Moore got a deep shot on an extended play in the first quarter, but wasn’t able to bring it in, and he finished the game as a full-time player with routes on 84% of dropbacks. We might see a big performance soon, even despite this slow start. Don’t go dropping. Behind Davis and Moore, Braxton Berrios (7-5-51) ran routes on 67% of dropbacks, while Denzel Mims (1-1-40) had a big play but ran just 7% routes even with both Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole out. Berrios will likely be relegated once Crowder and Cole are ready.
Tevin Coleman got the start, but all three running backs had at least one of the team’s first four carries. Ty Johnson (54% snaps, 47% routes) had the best role, though the backfield combined for just two HVT, so I’m not sure that’s saying much. Coleman and Michael Carter were sort of co-No. 2s from a usage standpoint, but Johnson’s the one that got the most run and also the most passing work.
Signal: D.J. Moore — fantastic usage, jet motion tip pass, rush attempt, downfield targets, a friggin’ punt return, it was all there; Christian McCaffrey — an unfair fantasy asset that kind of ruins the game; Robby Anderson — in some trouble with way more competition for short-area targets; Ty Johnson — most valuable role in three-man committee, but there wasn’t much value overall and it was a three-man committee
Noise: Elijah Moore — one catch (84% routes, four targets, 92 air yards all pretty solid for a rookie debut)
I’ll be back tomorrow with the rest of Week 1, including a breakdown of my biggest Signals and Noise from Week 1!
I look forward to this article almost as much as I do watching Game Pass. My favorite fantasy football writing period. Thanks Ben. Love Stealing Bananas too. All my Zero/Hero RB teams inspired by Ship Chasing and your piece in the Super Flex Draft Guide got horrible Yahoo draft grades (badge of honor imo) and I’ve been projected to go 0-14 in some (lmao) but I won 14/18 matches this week and I’m in the top third of almost every league I’m in. Thank you for helping me zag the hell out and start with a bang.
Hey Ben, new subscriber here! I discovered you after relentlessly scouring the internet for Super Flex resources. That led me to your article/s in the "Super Flex Draft Guide" from @twoqbs. I was so impressed with your article on structure that I started searching for more of your content. I'm now an annual subscriber to this substack, and also a subscriber to your podcast with Shawn. Love what you are doing here! Keep up the good work.