I look forward to this article almost as much as I do watching Game Pass. My favorite fantasy football writing period. Thanks Ben. Love Stealing Bananas too. All my Zero/Hero RB teams inspired by Ship Chasing and your piece in the Super Flex Draft Guide got horrible Yahoo draft grades (badge of honor imo) and I’ve been projected to go 0-14 in some (lmao) but I won 14/18 matches this week and I’m in the top third of almost every league I’m in. Thank you for helping me zag the hell out and start with a bang.
Hey Ben, new subscriber here! I discovered you after relentlessly scouring the internet for Super Flex resources. That led me to your article/s in the "Super Flex Draft Guide" from @twoqbs. I was so impressed with your article on structure that I started searching for more of your content. I'm now an annual subscriber to this substack, and also a subscriber to your podcast with Shawn. Love what you are doing here! Keep up the good work.
Among numerous surprising developments, I'll cop to being astonished at Mike Williams' sudden lower-adot, high-volume role, something he's never really had in the NFL. If this sticks, AND considering that he's proven in the past to be a strong red-zone threat, AND he's always been a strong injury-arbitration play viz. Keenan Allen (i.e., he's crushed whenever Allen's been out), well... could this finally be the year he puts it all together? Part of me doesn't want to fully buy in, because he's sucked me in before, only to disappear/get injured/get phased out of the offense the following week(s). This does feel different, though, so I guess I'll partially hop back aboard the train, albeit circumspectly. Ben, what is your gut feel for his going-forward outlook after week 1?
Phew. Well, he's on waivers (owner dropped just before Sunday kickoff), and your answer only confirms my plan to put in a strong bid. Thinking $51 out of $100 budget, given my concerns over Claypool as a weekly WR3/flex. He is far and away the best FA WR. Not really worried about "depleting the budget" (overrated concept, imo), as true difference-making WRs are not often available in season. Thanks!
Ben, curious how you would prioritize FAAB bidding on Elijah Mitchell, given Shanahan's propensity for constant rotation. It wouldn't shock me to see Mitchell be 3rd this Sunday. OTOH, he looked fantastic. (Who would have thought the 6th rounder was the clear answer?) How much of a budget do you wager on him?
Prob in the 30% range, I'm not at all a FAAB master and it depends on the bids I saw on Ty'Son or Tony Jones in that league if there were some last week, it depends on my RB depth, etc. But I think he's worth being aggressive for, absolutely.
The difference is that significant. First, they have overlapping skill sets. Second, we now know with certainty someone else is going to take over this backfield through to the fantasy playoffs. It may not be certainly Mitchell, but the team is going to find a new plan with how they want to deploy the position, and there's no Mostert looming if someone takes the job and starts running with it over the next couple weeks.
Amazing stuff as always! RE Mike Evans: I can't disagree with your logic, however In scenarios like this I could see the pendulum swinging from game to game. Teams will now have to give more attention to Godwin/Brown/Gronk. I see Godwin as the safest bet but I can't sleep on Mike Evans because of one down game. We've seen him do this before only to roar back for 180 yds and 2 TDs the following week. He's been boom or bust his whole career so I'm keeping the faith he returns high end WR2 value ROS. I know that's not completely different from what you're saying, but I guess I still view him as a high end WR with elite ball skills who will find games to blow up and still finish with around 1100 10 TDS
Absolutely a must read every week, chock full of useable nuggets. Went Zero RB/Hyperfragile and did well. Given Gainwell's usage and the Sirianni scheme wouldn't he move up the Zero RB pecking order? Going forward he looks more valuable than say Conner, maybe even Singletary and even Hines.
Can't wait to wake up tomorrow and see Trey Sermon on the waiver wire. I bought into Zero RB this season thanks to all of your work and I smashed Week 1
Hey Ben. I went 0 RB. Kelce/Hopkins/lamb/Kupp/Smith/Chase. RBs are javonte/Dillon/pollard. Would u trade kupp or lamb for swift? Can only start 2wr/1flex. Thanks.
New subscriber this offseason. Loving the first edition of this! Such a great rundown of the week (especially since I was at a game and didn't get to watch any other games)
My question based on your excitement for Hurts. In a 0.5 PPR, 2RB/3WR/no flex I have the option to move Deebo for Hurts. My drafted QB is Lance so I'm currently planing to steam QBs until hopefully Lance is named FT starter.
My other WR are Keenan/Kupp/McLaurin/Ja'Marr plus both Moore rookies as keeper stashes.
I could see doing that. I'm not sure if I would because I'm pretty comfortable streaming QB, but from a value perspective it's probably relatively fair.
Got it; Thanks! Made the trade and was just looking for confirmation that the value was solid and not a crazy panic. Understand those that stream QB but I've had a rough go at guessing who to stream in prior years so I'm leery and decided to leverage Deebo's hot week 1 for a solid QB.
Biggest question after reading this… after drafting zero-RB is Elijah Mitchell worth burning my top waiver priority when SF can change RB scripts any given Sunday and most of the touches are TRAP as you described. Seems perhaps too high risk, like using a 1st round pick on an unproven chaotic situation?
Absolutely use your top waiver priority. You gotta do it at some point. There are no clear things. But Mitchell looked great and should be expected to be the lead for now. You make those bets when you can, because there's also the scenario where him being the best back in camp shows in the games and he just takes this job and runs with it because he's better than everyone else.
I lost Jeudy in a half-PPR league (I mean, he's a drop, right?). Feels like there is no Higgins/Claypool type emerging from waivers yet, so I'm not excited about replacing him.
Given how flat WR production is starting from the backend WR2s in half-PPR, if a WR doesn't have top-20 upside, I don't roster him. Do you think Christian Kirk has that kind of upside?
I know we've all moved on to crushing on Rondale Moore by now, but if we didn't already have Moore, would we be more excited about Kirk's role?
No? Fine, I'll grudgingly bid on Elijah Mitchell then LOL.
Yeah, it's Mitchell > Kirk for me. Kirk looked good, absolutely, but there's something to be said about him producing while Rondale wasn't really on the field, which isn't going to last forever. Last year, I made the point about AJ Green's presence sort of opening up production for the other pass-catchers on the field at the same time as him, and that's I think part of what we saw today. I've always really liked Kirk, but it's just going to be very different in terms of him earning targets when it's alongside Nuk and Moore versus being alongside Nuk and then AJG.
Awesome Ben. Thanks. Question would you rather have Tyler Locket or DJ Moore Rest of Season. I might be able to trade my Locket for DJ Moore but don't want to make a mistake...i really want to win my office league. THanks
I don't like the word "mistake" here at all. I don't know what's going to happen and can't promise you anything. It's all probabilities. There aren't mistakes if we understand the deal going in and make the bet we want to make.
I would imagine you might be able to get DJ Moore plus an additional piece after Week 1. I would try to do that. But for what it's worth, I had these guys ranked two spots apart as my WR12 and WR14 all August. With Lockett having the big Week 1, it's fair to say they would be close in value for me. I'd still lean Moore, but it's a total wash.
I look forward to this article almost as much as I do watching Game Pass. My favorite fantasy football writing period. Thanks Ben. Love Stealing Bananas too. All my Zero/Hero RB teams inspired by Ship Chasing and your piece in the Super Flex Draft Guide got horrible Yahoo draft grades (badge of honor imo) and I’ve been projected to go 0-14 in some (lmao) but I won 14/18 matches this week and I’m in the top third of almost every league I’m in. Thank you for helping me zag the hell out and start with a bang.
Hey Ben, new subscriber here! I discovered you after relentlessly scouring the internet for Super Flex resources. That led me to your article/s in the "Super Flex Draft Guide" from @twoqbs. I was so impressed with your article on structure that I started searching for more of your content. I'm now an annual subscriber to this substack, and also a subscriber to your podcast with Shawn. Love what you are doing here! Keep up the good work.
Love it, thanks Ben. Great read
Happy Week 1 Stealing Signals!!
Among numerous surprising developments, I'll cop to being astonished at Mike Williams' sudden lower-adot, high-volume role, something he's never really had in the NFL. If this sticks, AND considering that he's proven in the past to be a strong red-zone threat, AND he's always been a strong injury-arbitration play viz. Keenan Allen (i.e., he's crushed whenever Allen's been out), well... could this finally be the year he puts it all together? Part of me doesn't want to fully buy in, because he's sucked me in before, only to disappear/get injured/get phased out of the offense the following week(s). This does feel different, though, so I guess I'll partially hop back aboard the train, albeit circumspectly. Ben, what is your gut feel for his going-forward outlook after week 1?
I think he was one of the biggest storylines of Week 1 and could be an absolute monster with the lack of viable target competition here.
Phew. Well, he's on waivers (owner dropped just before Sunday kickoff), and your answer only confirms my plan to put in a strong bid. Thinking $51 out of $100 budget, given my concerns over Claypool as a weekly WR3/flex. He is far and away the best FA WR. Not really worried about "depleting the budget" (overrated concept, imo), as true difference-making WRs are not often available in season. Thanks!
Ben, curious how you would prioritize FAAB bidding on Elijah Mitchell, given Shanahan's propensity for constant rotation. It wouldn't shock me to see Mitchell be 3rd this Sunday. OTOH, he looked fantastic. (Who would have thought the 6th rounder was the clear answer?) How much of a budget do you wager on him?
Prob in the 30% range, I'm not at all a FAAB master and it depends on the bids I saw on Ty'Son or Tony Jones in that league if there were some last week, it depends on my RB depth, etc. But I think he's worth being aggressive for, absolutely.
First FAAB in this one, but yeah, there are always competing parameters. And NO ONE is a FAAB master lol....thanks for the baseline.
Seeing the Mostert thing after I'd replied, I'm moving up from 30% now
The difference from 8 weeks to the full season is that significant? Or you hadn't heard the initial 8 week time-line?
The difference is that significant. First, they have overlapping skill sets. Second, we now know with certainty someone else is going to take over this backfield through to the fantasy playoffs. It may not be certainly Mitchell, but the team is going to find a new plan with how they want to deploy the position, and there's no Mostert looming if someone takes the job and starts running with it over the next couple weeks.
Welp, I didn't bid the 752 (out of 1000) it would have taken to get him. Next week!
Amazing stuff as always! RE Mike Evans: I can't disagree with your logic, however In scenarios like this I could see the pendulum swinging from game to game. Teams will now have to give more attention to Godwin/Brown/Gronk. I see Godwin as the safest bet but I can't sleep on Mike Evans because of one down game. We've seen him do this before only to roar back for 180 yds and 2 TDs the following week. He's been boom or bust his whole career so I'm keeping the faith he returns high end WR2 value ROS. I know that's not completely different from what you're saying, but I guess I still view him as a high end WR with elite ball skills who will find games to blow up and still finish with around 1100 10 TDS
Absolutely a must read every week, chock full of useable nuggets. Went Zero RB/Hyperfragile and did well. Given Gainwell's usage and the Sirianni scheme wouldn't he move up the Zero RB pecking order? Going forward he looks more valuable than say Conner, maybe even Singletary and even Hines.
He definitely has to move up. I think those guys you mention is a good general area for him now, but I wouldn't mind if you had him ahead of them.
I missed this. Thanks Ben. I am fully anticipating a 70 point total game from LAC/DAL this week.
Can't wait to wake up tomorrow and see Trey Sermon on the waiver wire. I bought into Zero RB this season thanks to all of your work and I smashed Week 1
Heinicke isn’t atrocious, probably . . . ☺️
was my favorite part. Awesome stuff, man. Thanks!
Awesome thanks Ben. Only thing I'd say is that for WR/TE it's better to see route% per dropback than to see snap%
Hey Ben. I went 0 RB. Kelce/Hopkins/lamb/Kupp/Smith/Chase. RBs are javonte/Dillon/pollard. Would u trade kupp or lamb for swift? Can only start 2wr/1flex. Thanks.
If it's PPR I'd be fine trading Kupp for Swift
New subscriber this offseason. Loving the first edition of this! Such a great rundown of the week (especially since I was at a game and didn't get to watch any other games)
My question based on your excitement for Hurts. In a 0.5 PPR, 2RB/3WR/no flex I have the option to move Deebo for Hurts. My drafted QB is Lance so I'm currently planing to steam QBs until hopefully Lance is named FT starter.
My other WR are Keenan/Kupp/McLaurin/Ja'Marr plus both Moore rookies as keeper stashes.
Would you make the move?
I could see doing that. I'm not sure if I would because I'm pretty comfortable streaming QB, but from a value perspective it's probably relatively fair.
Got it; Thanks! Made the trade and was just looking for confirmation that the value was solid and not a crazy panic. Understand those that stream QB but I've had a rough go at guessing who to stream in prior years so I'm leery and decided to leverage Deebo's hot week 1 for a solid QB.
Biggest question after reading this… after drafting zero-RB is Elijah Mitchell worth burning my top waiver priority when SF can change RB scripts any given Sunday and most of the touches are TRAP as you described. Seems perhaps too high risk, like using a 1st round pick on an unproven chaotic situation?
Absolutely use your top waiver priority. You gotta do it at some point. There are no clear things. But Mitchell looked great and should be expected to be the lead for now. You make those bets when you can, because there's also the scenario where him being the best back in camp shows in the games and he just takes this job and runs with it because he's better than everyone else.
Bye bye RoJo…
Don't cut Rojo, he's starting this week lol
It’s either him or Pollard, and I think Pollard has more upside and potential - the Arians situation is frustrating for an owner, lol
Awesome as always!
I lost Jeudy in a half-PPR league (I mean, he's a drop, right?). Feels like there is no Higgins/Claypool type emerging from waivers yet, so I'm not excited about replacing him.
Given how flat WR production is starting from the backend WR2s in half-PPR, if a WR doesn't have top-20 upside, I don't roster him. Do you think Christian Kirk has that kind of upside?
I know we've all moved on to crushing on Rondale Moore by now, but if we didn't already have Moore, would we be more excited about Kirk's role?
No? Fine, I'll grudgingly bid on Elijah Mitchell then LOL.
Yeah, it's Mitchell > Kirk for me. Kirk looked good, absolutely, but there's something to be said about him producing while Rondale wasn't really on the field, which isn't going to last forever. Last year, I made the point about AJ Green's presence sort of opening up production for the other pass-catchers on the field at the same time as him, and that's I think part of what we saw today. I've always really liked Kirk, but it's just going to be very different in terms of him earning targets when it's alongside Nuk and Moore versus being alongside Nuk and then AJG.
Put in token bids for Mitchell and Kirk but missed out and got Hamler instead for $1. Happy enough with that as an optimistic Jeudy substitute.
Let's see how these Broncos do against Jax next week.
Awesome Ben. Thanks. Question would you rather have Tyler Locket or DJ Moore Rest of Season. I might be able to trade my Locket for DJ Moore but don't want to make a mistake...i really want to win my office league. THanks
I don't like the word "mistake" here at all. I don't know what's going to happen and can't promise you anything. It's all probabilities. There aren't mistakes if we understand the deal going in and make the bet we want to make.
I would imagine you might be able to get DJ Moore plus an additional piece after Week 1. I would try to do that. But for what it's worth, I had these guys ranked two spots apart as my WR12 and WR14 all August. With Lockett having the big Week 1, it's fair to say they would be close in value for me. I'd still lean Moore, but it's a total wash.
Ben will say DJM. Guaranteed.
I had Lockett WR14 all August and Moore WR12, in the same tier