Week 1 is all about how you cope. It’s all about how much you react. A short list of definitive things I thought on Sunday:
I wish I would’ve ignored projections-based stuff and had more Jets because of how talented those guys are
I can’t believe people ignored how obvious the Colts were from the projections-based stuff
I can’t believe people bought one small sample year of Tank Bigsby over the clear long view stuff Travis Etienne had over him
I can’t believe I cared so much about the long view stuff instead of understanding Zach Charbonnet is just the better fit for the current Seattle offense than Ken Walker
I wish I was more agnostic on rookie talent and just went ham on Emeka Egbuka when the drumbeat was deafening
I can’t believe people are agnostic on rookie talent and didn’t contextualize how good Harold Fannin is
This list could go forever, and it’s also not a perfect list. But while it doesn’t serve to absolve me of all errors, it does advocate for grace.
If everything is a referendum on something, nothing is. Every single thing that happens in Week 1 feels like it teaches us some massive lesson. I bet you had at least one moment on Sunday where you were like, “Man, Ben’s losing it.” And that’s fine. I probably am.
I got the asks about Garrett Wilson and Ken Walker on Twitter, where it was like, “Why weren’t you right?” And I mean, I’d like to be right on all of it. That seems ideal.
This isn’t a major complaint, to be clear. I’ve written about this in past years, but the feedback I get in Week 1 is all just the release of readers and listeners having to hear my takes over and over again, and maybe not agreeing with all of them, and then Week 1 comes around, and you were right, and I was missing something, and damn right it’s your turn to tell me. I do totally get that feeling on your end, without question. It’s just the desire to chop it up about sports, obviously.
I bring it up in part because on my end, it’s just a barrage of that stuff, ha. I’ve gotten used to it as I’ve understood the phenomenon over the years, but just an FYI that I never expected to get everything right, and also no one has written me to point out the stuff I was getting static about that looks pretty sharp, like, “Hey, good call fading Isiah Pacheco,” or whatever.
And also, a lot of the feedback doesn’t even understand the situation. I got a “TreVeyon Henderson isn’t even playing inside the 10-yard line,” which I would have described as completely expected. I mean it would have been one of the bigger bull signs of Week 1 if TreVeyon was playing all the green zone snaps.
And “Garrett Wilson is priced where there’s too much opportunity cost” is not a “Garrett Wilson won’t score points” take. It’s a take you have to find league-winning players in Round 3, but I wound up taking him in multiple Main Events when he fell all the way to Round 5 very late in draft season. And I’m still somewhat skeptical how that will play out, I guess. But he was awesome, no question. I love that dude, and love to see him thriving.
Like I said, the Week 1 response is always something that boils down to, “It would have been great to get everything right.” And I mean, it would have. I absolutely wish I could look back at a draft and feel like every single pick I made was the perfect one after Week 1, and my team is set up to absolutely crush.
But it’s not just your team that doesn’t feel totally like that. And this is what fantasy football is. It’s basically just feeling progressively worse and worse about stuff all year long, and watching guys get hurt and struggle and fail, and some offenses completely crater and coaches get fired, and you’re just hoping you find the few players that actually do rise above it all and become the league-winners. And there are typically only a handful.
I actually think Week 1 went pretty well. It’s so fun to have fantasy football back. While people love to victory lap the stuff they did get right early, and there was a lot around here, and I think there will be a lot more to come based on what we saw, the thing I think is most important thing to dial in after Week 1 is what we got wrong. Or maybe more accurately, the stuff that didn’t go the way we expected, and then where we do expect that to continue going that way. Some of it we can’t correct, but some of it we can find ways to get exposure to.
On Stealing Bananas last night, as I was talking about overreactions, Shawn joked about how people should not underreact, which is a phrase he’s used for years now and is another fun way to look at it (that show, by the way, was maybe my favorite episode with Shawn ever, so definitely check it out). Just like there being a feeling that we should have just gotten everything right, there’s a feeling that we just need to turn our reaction dial the perfect amount today. Not too hot, not too cold. That shouldn’t sound easy, but we’re definitely not going to do it by racing to use the biggest superlatives and be the people who most loudly recognize some trend. Unless we’re talking about Fannin. That dude is the greatest football player who ever lived and I hope you have him on every single team.
The other really hard thing to frame that plays into these discussions is, “What do we get when we’re right (or wrong)?” The Jets looked incredible, but I do still have a belief their season will include several unexciting games. Jacory Croskey-Merritt looks super exciting, but any mild hesitance you noticed from me on him was about how the ceiling comes together, and I still think that’s a pretty big question as it relates to receiving. That said, he looked so good and the Jayden Daniels offense is so favorable to RB explosives that we might be talking about the massive rushing efficiency that renders the receiving unnecessary, like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry can put up.
But the answer to the question that is essentially, “Why were(n’t) you on that?” is in most cases about this. Either I had a hard time seeing how it hit in a way that reshaped fantasy football this year, or I thought that if it did hit, it would hit big. When it doesn’t hit, people think that’s inevitable, too. Everything that happened was always going to happen and our worth as analysts is measured purely by our accuracy, except that’s not at all true.
When I see Hollywood Brown look like he’s just woken up from a Jason Bourne coma and is relearning how to play football for the first half and then still go 10-for-99 running Xavier Worthy’s routes, I’m pretty OK with the decision to take a lighter WR who happens to be the fastest player in combine history. When people have said he can’t hit the big plays and sucks, I’ve said, “You better be right,” because I didn’t know what was going to happen, but it sure seemed like it was going to work out pretty well in most cases.
Of course, I got the messages that said, “He’s just too small to play football,” too.
I don’t know, I’ve seen plenty of undersized WRs get through a season in this era of the NFL without taking a shot that big. Worthy’s never really had these kinds of injury issues, either, so zero chance seems low. Maybe if Travis Kelce tried a little harder to get over Worthy’s route there, instead of doing his nonchalant thing he always does with routes at a time when he really couldn’t afford to, and just letting Derwin James push him right into Worthy, who was running full speed but looking back at his teammate Patrick Mahomes and trusting his other teammate wouldn’t fucking freight train him, we would be sitting on a 30-burger, but we’ll never know. I watched that play like 10 times and I still don’t understand how Kelce didn’t know he was about to knock his teammate out of the game. If you told me he did that on purpose for some weird reason, I would absolutely go full-blown conspiracy theorist and believe you.
But I mean, the thing that happened in Week 1 is undeniable now. It doesn’t matter if there’s a world where Worthy doesn’t actually get hurt; he got broken on the third snap so obviously in this world, he’s fragile.
Anyway, Week 1 is the time to overreact. But that’s for the fun of it. When it comes to the decisions you have to make, you need to lock in, understand the nuance, understand that a lot of the game environments in Week 1 would have seemed surprising but not changed our opinions on everything if they happened in Week 8, don’t tell yourself everything has to look like the one thing we’ve seen, and generally just be willing to parse stuff. Analyze.
Everything’s pretty situation-dependent. A leaderboard of the top players in some stat does not all play out the same in the different offenses. It’s useful information, and helps provide context, but we need to look at everything when we think about the different player profiles.
A couple final things before we get to the games. First, I think we’re about to get an increase of QB rushing TDs. A big thing with Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen in 2023 and 2024 has been that they both had 12+ rush TDs both years, and no other QB had more than 6 either season. I’d bet on the number of QBs with 6+ rush TDs to climb this year, which is fairly easy to do when Fields and Daniel Jones both joined Hurts and Allen with two in Week 1, but still.
Jones’ were both on keepers from the 1-yard line, while one of Fields’ was, and it just seems natural that after all the discussion this offseason about the tush push, and then it didn’t get banned, that some teams would say, “OK, well we need to do that.” The Giants tried it with Russell Wilson a bit, but Russell Wilson is just the worst QB in the NFL, and my take would be that Jaxson Dart has a shot at 6+ rush TDs once he gets in there, which can’t come soon enough.
And obviously teams have been trying it, and not necessarily succeeding at the level the Eagles have. But that stuff takes time to dial in, and study, and learn how to execute. We’ll see how it all goes, but I wanted to just fire this thought out there, because I think it’s pretty notable in terms of thinking about what to do at QB. Jones is probably a pretty good pickup.
Lastly, let’s go over the terms I like to reference here. I get asked every year why I use “green zone touches” — which is touches inside the 10-yard line — instead of something like the weighted expected points formulas, and every year I have to explain that I do that intentionally.
Yes, the expected value, or expected TD rate, of a carry at the 1-yard line is significantly higher than a carry at the 3-yard line, and so forth. And yes, there are teams who do change personnel from the 3 when they get to the 1, like with the tush push discussion I just went over, or how the Browns went to Rocket Sanders but seemingly only when there was exactly 1 yard to gain.
But for the most part, the value gap represented by the expected points models between a rush at the 1-yard line and the 3-yard line is actually unhelpful. I don’t mean to be critical, but because that’s a bit more complex, people like to immediately criticize the simplicity of the stat I’m using, so I’m trying to point out that all the stats have limitations, and you have to understand what you’re looking at. I like the simple ones because it’s easier to parse what is actually being shown, whereas the complex ones all have the issues baked into some total number and it’s more difficult to parse it back out.
But I’m using the example of me using green zone touches, versus an expected points model, or versus just inside-the-5 carries, because I’m trying to do predictive research. The thing about carries at the 1-yard line and 3-yard line is it isn’t actually sticky how frequently you get those opportunities on the team level, so knowing that a guy has that kind of usage is really the only point. As I said, there are select situations where teams have a specific play at the 1-yard line, but we can parse that with either stat, and for the most part the point is just that a guy got a carry in a key spot, and then to go understand what that spot was.
But when I say the expected points stuff is actually unhelpful, it’s because the carry from the 1-yard line actually does get assigned like double the points than the one at the 3-yard line, which is maybe interesting in a descriptive sense, but I’d strongly argue is again unhelpful in the predictive sense. It’s also not perfect to just count them both as one equivalent green zone touch, but from a predictive sense that’s sort of what I want to know, is who got the work down there and might get it again. The rest as far as how the future plays out is uncertainty, and people love to use these past stats as if the descriptive stuff is way more predictive than it actually is, because really our bets going forward have to understand that stuff changes relentlessly.
So anyway, that’s the Cliff’s Notes of why I use the stats I do. People use lots of different ones, and most are more complex than what I use, but I write about the complexity that isn’t in the stats I reference, so frankly I’d argue that not only does my approach achieve the necessary level of complexity, but that it’s actually better because it doesn’t get overly complex just to feign a certain type of certainty that can’t actually exist. Just my opinion, obviously, but there’s a method to this madness.
Here are some important terms to understand as I work through the games:
aDOT — Average depth of target. The number of yards downfield, with the line of scrimmage being zero, that a player’s average target traveled, with higher meaning deeper passes.
Green Zone — Inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. Some use inside the 5 or goal-line specific data, and I’ve discussed in the past why I use a bit wider view, including the intro to Week 1 in 2021.
HVT — High-Value Touches: Green zone touches plus receptions. Touchdown potential and pass-catching upside are the keys to RB upside in PPR, while rush attempts outside scoring range are far lower in fantasy value.
MTF — Missed Tackles Forced: How many tackles a RB evaded or broke, combined. This is one of the best ways we can isolate RB skill, and gets down to how often they make unblocked defenders miss. The related point is then whether they are explosive enough to make it matter, as some elite MTF guys don’t actually gain big yards.
PROE — Pass Rate Over Expected: How frequently a team calls pass plays relative to what we’d expect considering factors like down and distance, time, and score. There is a formula to calculated Expected Pass Rate based on those factors, then PROE is the difference between actual pass rate and that number.
Route Share/Route Participation/Route Rate — I use these interchangeably but I’m almost always referring to routes run divided by dropbacks. Routes are the true opportunity metric for receiving value, while targets are more of a hybrid opportunity/efficiency metric.
RYOE — Rush Yards Over Expected: Based on NFL Pro’s model which utilizes player tracking data, but much has been discussed about how everything not in the model gets assigned to the RB, so while I find it to be directionally accurate in most cases, it’s not a perfect measure of RB talent in extreme outcomes.
TPRR — Targets Per Route Run: Pretty self explanatory, and my preferred way of breaking down the popular stat Yards Per Route Run. Targets are earned, not handed out. I wrote substantially more about TPRR here.
TRAP — Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage: For running backs, the percentage of all touches that are not High-Value Touches, which are low-value rush attempts outside scoring range. A higher TRAP means a high percentage of low-value touches, which is worse for fantasy production.
WOPR — Weighted Opportunity Rating: A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer which balances team share of targets and team share of air yards. Because a player’s WOPR is a share of his team’s overall opportunity, it’s important to consider team volume as additional context.
wTPRR — Weighted TPRR: Includes air yards, with targets and air yards weighted similarly to WOPR.
Alright, let’s get to the games. Wanna give a quick shoutout to my guy Jay who is helping me with the data this year, building off the awesome work Sam Hoppen’s done for me for years. Go follow Jay on Twitter at FFCoder or check out his Daily Dynasties site.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, and the Fantasy Points Data Suite.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Part 1 features breakdowns of every game through the early Sunday window, so we have 10 games to cover. Let’s do it.
Eagles 24, Cowboys 20
Key Stat: Jalen Hurts — 4.9 passing aDOT (third lowest in Week 1, through Sunday), 9 scrambles (most in Week 1, through Sunday)
I wrote a ton about this game Friday, including how I thought the lightning delay really impacted things (44 combined points in 40 minutes before, 0 in 20 minutes after), so I’m going to work through this quicker here, applying some key data. For Philly, Jalen Hurts registered nine scrambles, three more than any other QB in Week 1. I don’t have scramble rate cleanly parsed, but he only had 34 dropbacks, and all three other guys who had more than four scrambles had at least 45 dropbacks, so anyway the gap was even wider when you control for his opportunities. Then when he did throw, as I talked about Friday, it was all underneath, as he managed a passing aDOT of just 4.9 yards downfield. One of the things about scrambles is they aren’t checkdowns; the only two guys with lower aDOTs were Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff, who threw to their backs and underneath players because mobility isn’t the strong suit there. That Hurts had all these scrambles and still didn’t see his average throw depth tick up means it’s somehow even worse than it registers at first blush. This was just not a functional passing game, and while we knew there was risk here, I would expect this to be a major emphasis right away in Week 2. You can’t make this a multiweek issue. The Eagles draw the Chiefs; we saw the Chargers attack them relentlessly through the air, and stay away from their run defense.
I mentioned Saquon Barkley’s (18-60-1, 5-4-24) YPC was weak relative to last season, but it’s interesting to see NFL Pro had him at +8 RYOE. He also had a whopping 8 HVTs between 4 receptions and 4 green zone touches, which matches his regular season high from last year, so his Week 1 wasn’t abnormal to last season’s data in just negative ways. I doubt either side — the low YPC or the high HVTs — is likely to stick much, but Barkley’s Week 1 proved fine from a fantasy perspective, and while I’m a bit concerned merely from the perspective that he was an outlier last year and you want him to show the same outlier potential in that specific area, it’s by no means a panic-sell-at-all-costs situation if you have him. He’s the focal point of his offense and an extremely good fit for the scheme behind a very good offensive line.
It’s really hard to work through my notes knowing I already covered so much of this, but in sort of a different format and with a different focus, and not really remembering if I covered everything. But I want to shout out Dave D in the comments of that post, where he wrote he was “unimpressed with (new offensive coordinator) Kevin Patullo after this one,” and that it gave him “Brian Johnson 2023 vibes” in reference to the Eagles replacing Shane Steichen that year by trying “to fill the vacancy in-house with a team guy who may be able to copy/paste plays and build a gameplan,” but was “not experienced/adaptive when defenses start(ed) taking concepts away.” It’s a good thing to watch for with Philadelphia, after losing Kellen Moore to New Orleans at the end of their Super Bowl run. Maybe this is a lowkey “Lions lost Ben Johnson” situation we aren’t discussing enough.
I wrote in the other piece I was impressed with Will Shipley’s (3-26) early usage. We’ll see how his health looks going forward. A.J. Brown (1-1-8) and DeVonta Smith (3-3-16) won’t perform at this level every week, but certainly the shape of the concerns here were why neither was a Target this year. Dallas Goedert (7-7-44) benefitted from the situation but probably concedes target share back to the WRs starting next week.
As I wrote about Friday, I was probably not super impressed with Javonte Williams (15-54-2, 3-2-10), but the usage is undeniable. He had a little burst early, but the long run was just 11 yards against a defense that lost their key interior defender before playing a snap. Still, Jaydon Blue was inactive, and Williams played 80% of the snaps with 65% routes, and got and converted both RB green zone touches for the team. There’s a decent leash here for Williams, and I understand if you have to drop Blue in shallow leagues, but I do think Blue still works his way into a meaningful role before the end of the season. I shared my negative thoughts on Miles Sanders (4-53, 1-1-(-3)) Friday, and think the team is going to have to find space for Blue in short order. But then he needs to earn work from there, so this may take a lot longer than expected. Again, whether you cut depends on league size, and your ability to get him back if he does start to show positive signs.
CeeDee Lamb (13-7-110) looked unstoppable, and is probably a trade target this week after the drops got so much attention. Drops are mostly just a reflection of target volume, and are a nonissue predictively unless they impact playing time, which we’re extremely far away from with Lamb. But fantasy managers treat them as a bigger issue because it’s lost fantasy points in the descriptive sense. If you can benefit from someone else’s frustration in a situation like this, go for it.
I think George Pickens (4-3-30) is still clearly going to have his moments. He drew a long DPI down inside the 10-yard line that doesn’t show up in the numbers, and his only incomplete target was an end zone shot. It was also his first game with a new team, in a key spot, where it’s not all that surprising Dak Prescott keyed on the guys he has more of a rapport with in Lamb and Jake Ferguson (6-5-23). But no other WR or TE had more than 2 targets, and Pickens should develop into a strong secondary weapon alongside Lamb. Lamb’s 0.94 WOPR was massive — fifth-highest in Week 1, through Sunday — and he beat that number just twice last year. Pickens is clearly behind Lamb, but there will be more volume for Pickens in other games.
Signal: Javonte Williams — 80% snaps, 65% routes, 2 green zone touches (usage alone won’t win you weeks, and he’ll need to be productive, but this was more impressive Week 1 usage than I expected, and indicates a decent leash); CeeDee Lamb — 13 targets, 43% TPRR, 1.23 wTPRR, 0.94 (if there was any doubt about whether Lamb was still the clear undisputed No. 1, he put that to bed)
Noise: Jalen Hurts — 9 scrambles, 4.9 passing aDOT; A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith — 4 combined targets; Jahan Dotson — 0.59 WOPR; Saquon Barkley — 3.3 YPC (+8 RYOE); George Pickens — 0.28 WOPR (omits a long target where he drew a DPI, also doesn’t accurately reflect he was clearly part of the in crowd with a small group of target-earners in the downfield passing game); CeeDee Lamb — drops
Chargers 27, Chiefs 21
Key Stat: Chargers — +15.2% PROE (highest in Week 1, through Sunday)
Justin Herbert is just so good. That was the biggest story of this game, and I don’t want it to get lost. He used his legs, as the team talked about this offseason and I wrote about in Offseason Stealing Signals, although I didn’t act on that in an aggressive way because of the team-level tendencies from last year including a very slow pace, and a run lean. I wrote that I liked their team to be better, which helps play volume, but they were 29th in plays and 28th in pass attempts last year in large part due to a dead last rank in seconds to snap (pace). I don’t actually have great pace data from Week 1, but regardless of pace, if you are at a +15.2% PROE, you’re going to be OK as an offense. The Chiefs were actually the next-highest team in Week 1 (through Sunday) at +11.0%, as the only other team in double figures. So the Chargers at +15.2% were way out there; there were only three games by any team in all of 2024 that were higher, two by the Chiefs and one by the Bengals. I mean this was a massive, massive surprise, and the huge question that looms is whether it’s Signal or Noise, and I have no idea. There’s very real potential the Chargers were just throwing to win against their biggest threats in the division, especially considering the Chiefs’ run defense. We’ll see if they lose this nerve a little bit. But man, this was a massive PROE. They aren’t going to maintain this, but they were at -1.4% for the season last year, and the Bengals led the league at +8.2%. If the 2025 Chargers look more like a +3% team going forward, that’s a really significant shift that would make a lot of what we saw in Week 1 pretty viable. One of the reasons we might expect it is the Chargers just seem like a really sharp organization right now. This was one of the ways this could go, and it makes sense to put the ball in Herbert’s hands.
So you give Herbert this pass-heavy approach, and put the game in his hands, and what do you get? How about 318 and 3 TDs passing, with 32 rush yards, and no turnovers? I think the way to play this going forward is through Herbert’s upside, if I could redraft right now. The three WRs were all very good, and should all have their moments, with Ladd McConkey (9-6-74) clearly leading the way going forward. But at Ladd’s cost, there’s at least a bit of concern about the other two guys being so involved and effective right away. And yet, I don’t necessarily want to pick between the other two.
Keenan Allen (10-7-68-1) looked good, no question, but is 33, and what I saw was more like a WR being able to score when his team was at a +15% PROE than a high-ceiling league-winner. He only ran 68% routes and saw a target on 36% of those routes, which is obviously good, but is also unsustainable in a crowded offense. He wasn’t super efficient after the target at a 6.8 YPT. He’s fine, but when the pass volume is lower, he’ll likely have a lot of games that are worse than this one.
Same deal for Quentin Johnston (7-5-79-2), really. QJ did look good, but his biggest play was an early 33-yard catch-and-run that was a designed leak play where Kansas City just played bad defense, then on his first TD the defensive back literally fell down, and then he didn’t make a good play on a downfield 50/50 shot and dropped another TD opportunity that was mildly contested (which has been his issue), and then he caught his second TD on a play where Kansas City brought a blitz and Najee Harris roped the blitzer around the neck with a clear hold in pass pro that somehow went uncalled, yet created time for Herbert to identify the one-on-one to get the ball to, and that one was QJ for an open target again. The whole tradeoff of that blitz is it has to get home because the defenders on the back end will have some one-on-ones, so the missed hold was pretty significant to that TD in that QJ had time to create separation that certainly the defense didn’t anticipate there being when they drew up the coverage. Anyway, I know it feels like nit-picking, but QJ did score 8 TDs last year and him using his size and speed to find space and hit for some big plays was never part of the 2025 season that would shock me. It does slow down the potential timelines for Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and people who best-ball brain probably want me to say that he’s going to be good in those formats, but in managed leagues I find it hard to imagine we have a league-winner here based on Week 1. If you’re in a bind at WR already and he’s a free agent, sure. But it’s more like he gets brought along if the pass offense is fun.
The TEs were nonfactors, with Tyler Conklin (2-2-50) leading the way in production but fumbling, and Will Dissly (1-1-18) running more routes, 44% to 20%. Conklin did get a tush push, not at the goal line but in the field of play. I think the TEs will have some minor moments, as will the rookie WR duo, and then QJ and Keenan definitely will have more good games, too. All of that gets back to why I see this as a situation where I’d love to be playing this through Herbert so you don’t have to figure out where the production is going to come from, or potentially still just Ladd as the guy most likely to consolidate enough to have real strong No. 1 production.
Omarion Hampton’s (15-48, 2-2-13) debut was a mixed bag. The usage was super exciting, with an 81% snap share and 44% routes, but the production wasn’t there in a tough matchup. His -25 RYOE stands out, though I don’t think it’s totally fair. More concerning for me probably are the 2 HVTs. This team threw a massive amount but still didn’t get the ball to the RBs in the pass game at all. That was my concern with Hampton in draft season, and it worries me the RBs combined for just 3 targets on 34 total pass attempts. Najee Harris (1-5, 1-1-5) barely played, but did take one of those targets, and he might work into a bigger secondary role. I’m not out on Hampton, and think he’ll have some efficient games, but we’d like to see some indication of receiving game usage or rushing efficiency, or this does start to look somewhat like a TRAP profile.
While the Chargers looked awesome, the Chiefs looked off all night. When Rich Eisen asked sometime in about the third quarter whether the offensive struggles were a Week 1 thing, Kurt Warner went a completely different direction, unprompted, to say something like, and I’m paraphrasing, “It could be Week 1, or it could be Xavier Worthy. Andy Reid told us they had built the whole gameplan around him, and not having him in there changes things.” So that was a fun consolation prize to add to the 0.0 fantasy points in all my lineups.
I sometimes share those notes from production meetings because we get great insight into what the team was planning, but if you don’t buy the notes, consider Hollywood Brown (16-10-99) got 16 friggin’ targets. Brown’s production was solid, but it was clear he was covering for Worthy’s usage in the gameplan. Per Fantasy Points, 12 of his targets were first reads; that more or less confirms it for me, that those were meant to be Worthy first reads. Whether to buy that depends on whether Worthy is back in the lineup anytime soon.
Travis Kelce (4-2-47-1) found paydirt late, but is basically just an ancillary player at this point, as JuJu Smith-Schuster (5-5-55) and Tyquan Thornton (4-2-41) were right in his range of targets. I mean, there’s nothing here. I thought Patrick Mahomes played incredibly well, other than still missing on a few deep balls which was a bit concerning, but I do think the Chiefs will broadly look fine. But that’s probably me envisioning them with their guys, and it’s possible they won’t have either of Worthy or Rashee Rice for several weeks now. If that happens, it looks a lot more like last year, which was obviously not the plan. Jalen Royals is probably a pretty solid stash if we get news he’ll be ready to go for Week 2. The rookie could work into a meaningful role quickly just out of necessity.
Isiah Pacheco (5-25, 3-2-3) was in a full-blown committee, giving up short-yardage work to Kareem Hunt (5-16, 3-2-10) and watching as rookie Brashard Smith (no touches) was on the field for pass downs. Smith didn’t see any work, but was out there as early as the second snap of the game, and could develop into a Jerick McKinnon-like role as his rookie season moves along. Pacheco may get leaned on a bit more in the short term, but just doesn’t carry the type of upside people think of when they aggregate their idea of an RB1 on a plus offense. His usage isn’t whatever you think that is, and while he does have the TD upside that is implied there, it’s basically necessary and then even when it hits he doesn’t score in a massive way.
Signal: Chargers — +15.2% PROE (this specific number won’t stick, but there’s a hint at a passing shift that could be very impactful); Justin Herbert — flashed his mobility, was electric as a passer, and looks like a huge upside late-round QB; Omarion Hampton — 81% snap share, 44% routes, but also just 2 HVTs in a game with 34 pass attempts (the concern coming in was the offense making him into a TRAP back, and that showed); Travis Kelce — 10.3% target share (limited work despite real need); Hollywood Brown — huge volume covering for Xavier Worthy in the gameplan; Isiah Pacheco — 48% snaps, 37% routes (in a split, will have some potential to see usage grow in short term but pretty TD-dependent overall)
Noise: Quentin Johnston — 7-5-79-2 (all three big plays were the types of stuff he’s been able to find production on in the past, so more of a spike week than huge growth game, but he’s still worth a waiver add if you need WR help because of the offense looking willing to pass); Keenan Allen — 36% TPRR, 0.59 WOPR (only 68% routes, and will be up-and-down when they don’t have quite as much pass volume, but another one that’s fine to roster right now); Xavier Worthy — any implication he wasn’t going for 30 in this game
Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20
Key Stat: Emeka Egbuka — 86% routes, 19% TPRR
As will become a bit of a theme, the wrong team probably won this game. Tampa didn’t play real well in this game, but the Falcons just didn’t execute anything, including a late FG try to force OT. Part of what kept Tampa in was a solid +5.3% PROE, while the Falcons went -2.3% and kept rushing inefficiently. But I’m concerned about Tampa. For the game, they were out-gained 358 to 260, and 63 of their yards came on the final game-winning drive (though 15 of that was on a terrible roughing the passer penalty for the Falcons to be taking). Baker Mayfield is a gamer, as we know, but their first two touchdown drives came after a turnover on downs near midfield and a punt return that set them up deep in Falcons’ territory, and they were otherwise pretty unimpressive through the bulk of the game. Baker should’ve been picked multiple times but avoided any turnovers through good fortune. He completed just 17-of-32 passes, and you felt those incompletions watching it.
Bucky Irving (14-37, 4-4-8-1) caught a 9-yard TD to salvage his day, but his other three receptions went for negative yardage, and he didn’t have any room as a rusher. He did play a really strong 77% snap share, higher than any game, including the postseason, last year. His 57% routes also would’ve qualified as a 2024 season high, and he got 5 of the team’s 6 HVTs.
Rachaad White (2-14, 1-1-2) was used sparingly, but did have the August injury, so we’ll see how that develops. Sean Tucker (1-2) got one token carry.
The pass game volume sort of went as expected. Mike Evans (8-5-51) led the way, but wasn’t necessarily a dominant No. 1. Emeka Egbuka (6-4-67-2, 1-9) had an 86% routes share that was impressive, and obviously had the two TDs. His 19% TPRR was very solid, and he also got a rushing attempt. It wasn’t quite as massive of a Week 1 as the fantasy points imply just in terms of him only having the 6 targets in a situation where Tampa was pretty depleted in the passing game, but you still love to see the overall usage and efficiency, and it was clearly a smash debut for him. Things should only get better from here.
Cade Otton (3-0-0) went catchless, but had a solid-for-a-TE 73% routes, and Sterling Shepard (6-3-39) was the other guys involved in the receiving game.
The Falcons were concentrated, as expected. The big story was probably Bijan Robinson (12-24, 7-6-100-1) racking up so many targets and receptions, and Michael Penix was looking to him early and often on basically first read swing passes. This gets to the macro trends I discussed in the earlier standalone intro, but we saw this checkdown tendency in several offenses around the league. Bijan took one early swing pass 50 yards for a TD, weaving through defenders and laughing in the face of anyone who questioned his big-play ability. For what it’s worth, as a rookie, Bijan did have a 71-yard receiving TD, so this wasn’t his longest play from scrimmage. But it was just his second play of over 40 yards, and he looked dynamic in space. It’s perhaps a bit concerning Bijan gave up some rushes to Tyler Allgeier (10-24), and especially that they split the green zone touches down the middle, with two apiece. Bijan still played an 83% snap share and looked like a major workhorse, but giving up green zone touches is not something we’re into.
Shawn and I have talked about Drake London (15-8-55) as a guy who could lead the NFL in targets this year, and we saw why here. He had a massive usage rate. Late in the game, Penix kind of missed London on one end zone target, and then they went right back to the same play, and the throw was better but London probably dropped that one. The usage was great to see, but London probably isn’t quite at the elite echelon as a talent, which is a bummer. Still, he’s not going to go for a 53% catch rate or 3.7 YPT this year. That’s the Noise, and the 15 targets are the Signal, and that type of volume can paper over some minor efficiency concerns. In most any other game, London should absolutely smash with this type of usage. He’s a clear buy if you can get your hands on him.
Kyle Pitts (8-7-59) looked *holds breath for 15 seconds* good. He lost a catch to an illegal shift as well. The ball skills and movement skills were all the stuff we’ve been thinking about for years. He’s still just 24 until turning 25 next month. He’s about a year and a half older than Tyler Warren despite being in his fifth NFL season. TE production was a massive part of Week 1, and I don’t think there’s some massive value in seeking out Pitts, but he was definitely good.
Casey Washington (6-3-33) filled the Darnell Mooney role, while Ray-Ray McCloud (5-3-51) had a boring day.
Michael Penix threw 42 times for 298 and a TD, and also showed a little willingness to run, including a fourth-down touchdown scramble. He’s another cheap QB to keep an eye on, because he’s a big-armed guy that’s a darkhorse to be in the top five for overall passing yards at season’s end.
Signal: Bucky Irving — 77% snap share, 57% routes (higher than any game last season), 5 of the team’s 6 HVTs (strong No. 1 share, as ADP expected); Emeka Egbuka — 86% routes, 2 touchdowns, strong usage and efficiency; Kyle Pitts — 74% routes, 23% TPRR, 8-7-59, looked decent
Noise: Cade Otton — no catches (73% routes are solid for a TE); Bijan Robinson — only a 12 to 10 rush attempt edge over Tyler Allgeier (Bijan still played 83% and got all 7 RB targets, though the 50/50 split in green zone touches is something to watch as a legitimate potential issue); Drake London — 53% catch rate, 3.7 YPT (buy the 15 targets)
Bengals 17, Browns 16
Key Stat: Harold Fannin — 30% TPRR, 0.68 wTPRR on a solid 63% routes
Once again, the less deserving team won, as the Bengals totaled just 141 yards of offense, and 68 of those came on their first drive. Cincinnati wound up running just 49 plays and gaining just 141 yards of offense, nearly half of which came on an opening-game touchdown drive. But from there, they were pretty awful, finishing with just 11 total first downs (Cleveland had 22) and way fewer than half as many yards as the 327 the Browns put up, while controlling the ball well enough with Joe Flacco and a bunch of rookies to run 71 plays. I’ve been calling for Zac Taylor’s job for a few years now, as he’s clearly underperformed the talent on his roster, and consistently underperforms what should be expected of him. Here it is again; the complete lack of Week 1 readiness every single year is a sign of bad coaching, full stop. They won because the Browns missed an extra point and a short, late field goal, plus had both of the game’s turnovers as two Flacco passes were juggled into the air for Bengals’ defenders to snatch. That’s football — three or four key plays turn games all the time — but it’s not a consolation that Cincinnati won when they deserved to lose to a team in the running for the first overall pick and their whole focus was on getting off to a fast start this year. It’s all they talked about. The good news is we have ample data that suggests they’ll shake this off, but man, this was so rough.
There’s not a lot else to say about a team with so little production. We did at least see concentration of the offense, even as the low volume makes some of the ancillary usage look more significant than it is. Chase Brown (21-43-1, 3-2-8) got a ton of work early, and his 73% snap share was very good to see. Tahj Brooks only played on special teams, but Samaje Perine (2-2-6) was a bit of a nuisance on pass downs. Still, this was a strong Brown result for Week 1. He should get a ton of work.
Ja’Marr Chase (5-2-26) had a quiet day, and Tee Higgins (4-3-33) wasn’t much better. Newcomer Noah Fant (5-4-26-1) led the passing attack in catches, but that isn’t a big thing, and has more to do with Joe Burrow throwing just 23 passes and completing just 14. Most weeks we’ll see Chase and Higgins dominate the targets. Andrei Iosivas ran 71% routes but wasn’t targeted.
Mike Gesicki (3-1-14) was the big story as Fant seems to have just completely displaced him, with Gesicki running just 29% routes. Fant was only at 43%, and in truth they are going to have different types of usage, but it’s surprising to see Gesicki this low. Gesicki had big splits with and without Higgins on the field last year, and I’d thought they may not totally carry over, but his only value at this point will come as a watch list guy if Higgins does miss time.
The Browns were far more interesting. Harold Fannin (9-7-63, 1-3) is the talk of the fantasy world, and for good reason. The rookie out of Bowling Green with the elite production profile last season stepped onto an NFL field for the first time and immediately showed he belonged, and could earn volume at this level. The best moment was when Flacco was rolling out right, looking for somewhere to go with the ball, and Fannin was along the sideline, but broke up field and made himself available for a throw right before Flacco went out of bounds for a solid gain. That type of feel for finding space and working to make yourself available for your QB goes a long way, and it’s also the kind of thing that helps explain why production begets production and we chase these kinds of guys. Fannin had two more targets and another catch negated by penalties, and was involved right away, with three catches and a wildcat carry in the first quarter, all on the team’s first drive of the season (plus a fourth target, one of the negated ones). The 63% routes were solid if unspectacular, but it was his first career game, and he posted a 30% TPRR with that. The Browns are also going to drop back more than most teams (45 pass attempts were one shy of the Week 1 high), so it’s not as much of a concern if he’s not quite to the type of route share we’d hope to see in other offenses. Fannin’s a massive pickup, and will be at or near the very top of my Biggest Signals of Week 1. This is a meaningful add in leagues of all sizes, even if you have an elite TE. (You don’t want to just give your opponents good upside plays just because you’re already strong at TE.)
David Njoku (6-3-37) and Fannin seemed to coexist fine, with Njoku still running 75% routes. That’s down from his peak stretch last year, but he had several healthy games in the high 70s, and only hit 90% once, so you’re talking about him giving up about 10 percentage points in routes but with the caveat that the Browns dropped back a ton. The week where he broke 90% routes last year, at 93% in Week 12, the Browns didn’t throw a ton, and he ran 27 total routes; here in Week 1 of 2025, he ran 36. So while routes may not be a massive issue for Njoku with Fannin out there from the perspective that two guys with “TE” next to their name can coexist, there’s still the issue of the presence of another high target share player in the passing game, because I’m probably more bullish on the two WRs keeping their shares. It doesn’t mean Njoku can’t or won’t be productive, but unlike the concentrated target tree for Cincinnati, Cleveland is doing a lot of different stuff. There have been rumors that Njoku could be a trade candidate, and I guess I think Week 1 probably increased that likelihood in my mind.
Jerry Jeudy (8-5-66) was somewhat quiet in this one until late, and did have a tough game, but he also drew two DPIs for additional targets that aren’t in the box score, and I’m confident he’s going to get his and should be better (he had a couple tough drops in this one, including one that led to an interception and another on a fourth-down attempt).
Cedric Tillman (8-5-52-1) also looked for all the world like a key part of this offense, and that’s perhaps not all that surprising given how his 2024 played out. I detailed the specifics in Offseason Stealing Signals: “After not playing more than 40% of the snaps across the season’s first six weeks, Tillman was immediately at 82.1% in Week 7, then up to 89.9% the next week and over 95% the two following, before getting injured in Week 12 in what would be his final game of the year. Across that four-game span, he saw at least 8 targets in every game.” Tillman picked up this year where he left off last year, with a 94% route share and 8 targets.
Dylan Sampson’s (12-29, 8-8-64) 9 HVTs ranked third among all RBs in Week 1, behind just Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs. While that was obviously a huge positive for a rookie his first game, and Jerome Ford (6-8, 1-1-(-3)) was comparatively not at all prioritized in terms of getting the ball in his hands, there were a couple problem areas. First, Raheim Sanders (3-3-1) came in for only three snaps, but all three were short-yardage carries, including a TD. Second, Sampson wasn’t great as a rusher, and with news Quinshon Judkins may play as early as Week 2, the combination of lack of short-yardage usage and Sampson’s inability to break any big runs probably hurts his ability to hang onto the rushing work. I still think he’ll be very involved next week, but it’s unfortunately pretty murky, and the runway I thought he had is quite a bit shorter. Still, if the receptions are any indication, he should have a role. His TPRR was 50%, so he got 8 targets on just 16 routes, as they intentionally swung the ball to him to get him it in space. That’s very bullish usage in PPR leagues, and something to be excited about going forward. And he did look good in the passing game, with the broadcast saying at one point his catches had “a high degree of difficulty,” emphasizing he had looked natural and fluid even on the short receptions. Earlier, when Sampson started the game and got the first carry, the broadcast also said, “they are so excited about this rookie.” So they were hearing good things in the production meetings, and again, 20 touches and 8 HVTs in an NFL debut is fantastic. Ford is probably cuttable; it was shocking how little work he got, and while he did get a couple touches inside the 5-yard line, the fact he didn’t get the 1-yard plunge was pretty brutal if, like me, you had to start him in a couple spots as well.
Last name to mention is rookie WR Isaiah Bond got an early catch, but only ran 23% routes. The early target seemed by design, and he’s someone who will probably see his role tick up down the stretch. A watch list guy.
Signal: Chase Brown — ceded some pass downs to Samaje Perine as expected, but 73% snaps, and no offensive snaps for Tahj Brooks is bullish overall; Mike Gesicki — 29% routes (Noah Fant was much higher at 43%); Harold Fannin — 30% TPRR, 0.68 wTPRR; Cedric Tillman — 94% routes, 8 targets (closed his season with four straight healthy games of 8+ targets after the Amari Cooper trade last year, before getting injured for the year in Week 12, so this is five straight healthy games at that threshold); Dylan Sampson — 50% TPRR, 8 targets, 20 touches (clear intent to get the ball in his hands in space, and he looked good as a pass-catcher)
Noise: Bengals — 49 plays, 141 yards of offense; Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins — *waves hand at all of it*