Stealing Signals, Week 1, Part 2
Late games, plus biggest Signals and Noise of the week and full recap
If I was just kind of sad about the J.K. Dobbins thing, I think I was more mad about the Aaron Rodgers one. It was helpful to read a really good piece later yesterday by my friend Michael Leone, who wrote about swearing off “tilting” for this season over at his Substack (which is more life-focused than football, and has some great wisdom).
I’m in sort of similar situation, where the difficulties of the 2022 season wore me down, and I worked hard this offseason to get healthier. I enter this season with a different perspective, I hope, and while I’m not swearing off tilting, I did respond to Week 1 a little different than I have in the past, in a good way.
That’s interesting in the sense that for whatever I said on the Sunday Stealing Bananas, and whatever I may have written yesterday, I did feel pretty OK about the Dobbins thing, personally. To be clear, I do have a lot of exposure to him in high stakes stuff — Shawn and I have him on three of the five main event teams we did together, for example, and those were some of my favorite teams — but a RB getting injured sort of is what it is.
But the Rodgers thing bothered me more. I was frustrated last year when Trey Lance went down, because I just wanted to find out the answer to that analysis. And I knew that things could go a lot of different ways for him, and that for some people, the analysis would be determined by what happened after his injury (meaning that he never played another down for the 49ers). I still contend Lance would have had a great year last year, even if it’s probably clear now Lance just isn’t very good, in part because the organizational buy-in was there. It’ll be interesting to think about him in relation to Anthony Richardson this year, where I don’t mean to make an assumption on his long-term skill level — we of course don’t know that — but if he does struggle as a passer, as it looks like he might, I’m curious how much that might matter for his fantasy scoring. It’s not apples to apples, obviously.
The point is the frustration is in not getting to see the bet play out. My whole career is about analysis and making predictions, and the drafts you do are not dissimilar. You’re buying into something, and we know there’s a strong pull that gets us excited about the players we have on our team (the psychological bias is called the endowment effect). When you sink energy into weighing the pros and cons of something, and then you feel that hard-won conviction — all you want is to know. I want things to be clear. I want to be able to test that hypothesis and then learn from it, if needed.
I felt like that was taken away with the Lance thing last year, but I’m rehashing this because when it was taken away with the Dobbins injury yesterday, I was much more accepting of it. It felt like growth.
But the Rodgers thing was different, specifically because of Garrett Wilson. So much of my argument on Wilson has been tied to Rodgers. I still think Wilson is an incredible player, but I felt the match was made in heaven. Part of it was the touchdowns and red zone potential, and we saw a touchdown from Wilson that showed that even if he doesn’t have Rodgers’ timing and accuracy down there, Wilson himself can make things happen.
But it’s the combination of QB and WR that makes for the dynamic outcomes, like what Davante Adams did for years. And yes, Adams still had a great year last year with Derek Carr, but again, this very specific type of play and area of the field, and QB-WR connection was something I was so excited to see. I was convinced it would be perfect, but I wanted to know. Right or wrong, I wanted an answer.
And with Wilson, and to a lesser (but still meaningful) extent Breece Hall, we’re going to instead get those bets graded on a different scale than the one the analysis was based on. That’s what felt different last night. The things that tilt me are the comments I inevitably see that I just don’t agree with. Maybe I’m the one who is wrong, but it’s the Dunning-Kruger excessive confidence stuff — or the David Foster Wallace quote about blind certainty amounting to an imprisonment so total the prisoner doesn’t even know he’s locked up — where I just can’t abide the idea that anyone has it as figured out as some comments suggest.
That’s what I fear is coming with Wilson. Or at least, that’s the worst case, where it’s definitive negative comments about Wilson the player, and how wrong it was to like him at his cost. Of course, there are still scenarios where he’s just great through it all, which would be incredible, but even in those instances, where we will get to know, what we won’t get is the payoff. Because we do make bets on these pieces of analysis, and so even if Wilson goes for 1,300 and 8 and we can feel with quite a bit of certainty that what we felt about him was strong analysis, it’s still almost certainly the case that his numbers with Rodgers would have gone higher still. There’s no doubt his range of outcomes just shifted downward, both the floor and the ceiling, and perhaps most notably for the things I’m discussing about knowing about the analysis, his median.
That touchdown did make me feel pretty good — if he can do that, then maybe we already have our answer — but there are going to be a lot of other situations where he’s wide open and the throw isn’t there, etc. It’s a helluva lot more fun when the throw is there and the stats and the fantasy points all count. We’ve done it with Kyle Pitts for two years now (and we might be doing it with him his whole career under Arthur Smith, honestly).
Anyway, we could all stand to learn something from Leone’s approach. The realities of this hobby can be unfortunate, but he writes about it being our choice to see the positives, and I think instead I’ll choose to be elated about that Wilson catch, and those Hall runs, and to just appreciate what is there. That Wallace quote I mentioned is from a commencement speech titled, “This is Water,” and if you haven’t ever watched it, it truly is something you have to go take the time to watch. I have the little hardcover of it on my shelf, and I just opened it here this morning, and anyway, in terms of just appreciating what is there, he talks through that, and toward the end of his speech says, “It is unimaginably hard to do this — to live consciously, adultly, day in and day out.”
And while that’s hard, we’re going to try to do it. I didn’t expect to be here after Week 1, but I also didn’t expect to be facing the reality that two of my bigger stances of the year would have already suffered such huge blows this early, either. But it’s high time I stop doing this to be right. That competitiveness might drive me, but you all have told me you enjoy the process even more than the outcomes, and so my “This is Water” reality is I need to enjoy doing the best analysis I can do, and let the results come.
Let’s get to the end of Part 2. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Yesterday’s post featured a glossary of important statistics/concepts to know.
As I did last year, I’ll close Part 2 each week with some recap sections hitting on the Biggest Signals and Biggest Noise of the week, as well as some awesome visuals from Sam Hoppen on key stats I think we need to keep an eye on, and what some of my takeaways on those are.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Packers 38, Bears 20
Key Stat: Roschon Johnson — 8 HVT (tied most in Week 1)
It was not the opening game at Soldier Field Bears fans were hoping for, as a slow game early became a Packers’ blowout. Without Christian Watson, Jordan Love still looked solid, getting the ball to Romeo Doubs (4 catches for 26 yards and 2 TDs), Jayden Reed (2-48), and Luke Musgrave (3-50), all of whom ran routes on at least two-thirds of the dropbacks. The Packers did rotate WRs a little, but they also pulled their starters before the end of this, and Doubs in particular came in with a hamstring issue, so I’m not reading too much into the early route numbers for the young WRs. Musgrave getting to 80% can be read into as a big positive, though.
One minor concern is that even in a positive game script, the Packers finished with a -5.2% PROE, and their 60 plays and 27 pass attempts were pretty light for a team finding success offensively (5.5 yards per play). Hopefully we see their tempo elevate a bit at times, but it’s possible this young team will move a little slower than we’d like.
Aaron Jones (9 rushes for 41 yards and 1 TD, 2 receptions for 86 and 1) looked as electric as ever, though he did feel his hamstring pull a little on the long touchdown reception in the third quarter. AJ Dillon (13-19, 2-17) wound up with a slightly higher snap rate, but Jones still dominated the routes at 53%. At one point, Dillon got two consecutive green zone carries, and he did move the Packers closer to the goal line, and then Jones came in to top it off for the TD. Dillon wound up with more green zone work overall, but the issue with his value is he continues to just not look very explosive. Now, he’s huge, so he’s still a bit of a force to be reckoned with. But compared to Jones, it feels clear Dillon will always need to be second fiddle. (I’ll add that reports the Packers were in on Jonathan Taylor have definitely soured me on Dillon a little bit; it’s easier to see them envisioning a JT-Jones backfield, and I took that as a direct commentary on them seeming to not believe in Dillon long-term.)
The Bears passing outcome was a bummer. Justin Fields took four sacks, and totaled nine rush attempts, but still did get to 37 passes despite a -4.3% PROE. But he just struggled to get the ball down the field, as Chicago finished with a total of 113 air yards and a league-worst 3.1 passing aDOT in Week 1. In the end, he finished in the low 200s in yards, D.J. Moore (2-25) did nothing, Darnell Mooney (4-53-1) did find paydirt, but the RBs were also targeted a combined 15 times for 11 of the 24 team receptions, with each of them catching multiple passes. That’s obviously not what they were hoping to accomplish with this revamped passing game, and it’s a pretty big concern for DJM and the rest of the receiving weapons especially, because of the potential volume concerns and things we’ve discussed all offseason (I focused largely on even if they were efficient, the volume could be problematic, but this looked more like the floor side of the coin; part of how they got to 37 attempts at all was the low aDOT and short completions adding more downs, so they are just a ways from a viable passing game right now).
Cole Kmet (5-44) had a decent game for a tight end, but his aDOT was very low at 3.3. Not great upside here, either. One minor note is Twitter was abuzz with criticism for Chase Claypool’s (no catches on two targets) lack of effort, which that kind of thing winds up helping target concentration for other guys, though it’s obviously not good for the team.
Khalil Herbert (9-27, 3-37) looked like the clear lead back, while D’Onta Foreman (5-16, 2-8) played a little more on pass downs than I expected, and then Roschon Johnson (5-20-1, 6-35) got a lot of his run late, including four catches on five targets and two rush attempts (one of which was his 2-yard TD) all on the final two drives of the game. Up to that point, he had just three carries and two catches. That said, he looked pretty sweet on that little spurt, and he wound up racking up 8 HVTs to tie for the NFL lead in Week 1. We love the guys who show HVT upside early and then can round out their role with more overall work as time goes on, and I’m definitely more interested in him after seeing him late in Week 1.
Signal: Luke Musgrave — 80% routes; Justin Fields — 3.1-yard passing aDOT (lowest in Week 1, they were unfortunately a ways away from being a viable passing game); Khalil Herbert — clear lead back early; Roschon Johnson — racked up HVTs late, but he looked very good and feels like a guy who could round into a versatile role with good usage (strong bench stash)
Noise: Romeo Doubs — 67% routes (entered with hamstring issue, Packers also pulled starters for final drive, would expect it to be higher most weeks); D.J. Moore — 2 targets (94% routes, it won’t be this bad most weeks)
Raiders 17, Broncos 16
Key Stat: Jakobi Meyers — 0.42 TPRR, 0.93 wTPRR, 0.80 WOPR
This game kind of sucked, with the two offenses totaling 261 and 260 total yards, on 58 and 55 plays, and each committing 10 penalties. It’s frankly hard to be optimistic about much on either side, although there were a few things.
Jakobi Meyers (9-81-2) had a big day, while Davante Adams (6-66) still had a strong WOPR given his higher aDOT and more air yards. Meyers left with a concussion late in the game, and his per-route numbers were really strong, as he stepped right into the slot role he occupied at times for Josh McDaniels in New England. As for Adams, Jimmy Garoppolo threw an end zone pick at one point where the announcer highlighted that Adams threw his hand up on his slant and wanted the ball, and while it was a tight window, I’m inclined to agree with the announcer that it could have worked. Instead, Jimmy had already come off that read, went elsewhere, and threw a pick targeting someone who isn’t Davante Adams, which seems like bad process.
Those two looked like the whole passing game, earning 19 combined targets on just 26 pass attempts, with Josh Jacobs (19-48, 2-23) being the only other player targeted multiple times. Jacobs was the clear lead in his return, though his 48% route rate was a bit lower than his peak last year. He of course missed some time in August, and that number built up in the early weeks of the 2022 season, so it’s not a major concern. His five green zone touches were very good to see, even if they didn’t amount to a score.
Russell Wilson was very efficient early, completing 17-of-19 passes with two touchdowns in the first half. And then in the second half, the Broncos just couldn’t get anything going. It’s not even that he was a ton worse statistically — the Broncos only had three second-half drives, and one featured a missed FG — but both sides just played slow and were content with a boring Week 1 game (at least as boring as a close game with a fourth-quarter lead change can be).
The Broncos rotated routes, which wasn’t great to see. Courtland Sutton (4-32-1) did stay out there for most of the game at an 89% route rate, but Greg Dulcich (2-22) hardly played behind Adam Trautman (5-34), and it was a shock to me to see Marvin Mims (2-9) play so sparingly. One of the things I was very specifically sure of for Week 1, and I said to people several times in person while in Vegas just in the days before Sunday, was that Mims had to run big routes. They cut down to four WRs at one point, Jerry Jeudy was out, Mims is a second-round pick. Had to run routes, no brainer that we’d get early information. His route rate was 28%, which if you’re counting at home, was about a third of my expectation. I’m not even sure I know what it means, either; it would seem to insinuate he’s a later-season play at best, but they do still have a thin WR group and they might bring him along quickly from there. If you need to cut him in shallower leagues, you can; it certainly wasn’t a great outcome, and you probably won’t lose him on waivers. I’d like to see a couple more weeks of route rates before I cut him in deeper leagues, or at least one more.
Javonte Williams (13-52, 4-5) got a ton of work, splitting things with Samaje Perine (8-41, 4-37) right out of the gate, and he mostly looked really good. It was great to see them get targeted a combined 10 times, and this offense looks like it’ll have plenty of Team HVTs, something that was always a staple of Sean Payton offenses in New Orleans, but I might have attributed to Drew Brees more than Payton. Both Williams and Perine stand to have a strong floor in PPR if the RB position can carry such a high target share overall, but this paired with the rotational routes probably means the receiving weapons in Denver aren’t really great plays right now (maybe a point toward just cutting Mims, and Dulcich as well at his route rate).
Signal: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers — combined for 19 targets on 26 total pass attempts (no other WR or TE saw multiple targets); Javonte Williams — looked healthy, played quite a bit in Week 1 (45% snaps, 33% routes), might be up to speed with a strong workload sooner than expected; Marvin Mims, Greg Dulcich — both cut candidates at low route rates (33%, 28%) in an offense that targeted the RB position at a high rate (although I’d like to see at least one more week of Mims in deeper leagues)
Noise: Josh Jacobs — tough game (77% snaps, 5 green zone touches, decent 48% route rate; the 7 HVTs should typically lead to more production)
Dolphins 36, Chargers 34
Key Stat: Tyreek Hill — 0.43 TPRR, 1.25 wTPRR, 0.80 WOPR, 15 targets, 227 air yards
It probably doesn’t need to be said, but this was hands-down the best game of opening weekend. What a delight for fantasy players. We got 76 offensive plays from the Chargers, which was awesome to see, and we got the same ol’ explosive Dolphins, as they put up a ridiculous 8.2 yards per play (no other team reached 6.0 in Week 1).
Tyreek Hill (11-215-2) put on an absolute show, and had multiple near TDs (one catch to the 1-yard line that was overturned for a foot out of bounds, another down inside the 5-yard line) but far more notable was Mike McDaniel exorcising his demons here against Brandon Staley, who came up with a defensive scheme that stifled Tua Tagovailoa and the whole Dolphins’ attack late last year. You can read my writeup on that specific game from last year’s Stealing Signals here, and includes some references to good breakdowns (from other people) of what the Chargers did. There were some other good ones this week that showed how the Dolphins adjusted, and I could go into all that, but I’d rather focus on how key it is that McDaniel had answers. My one nagging concern with the Dolphins was whether they’d be able to address the ways defenses would play them differently, and they did that, with some short-side motion and other little tweaks, and they did it against a defense that had them solved just last year. It’ll be fascinating to watch this team all year, but right now, you have to be extremely bullish on the whole group, and that includes Jaylen Waddle (4-78) given what we saw from him last year when this offense was rolling.
Hill and Waddle were the clear top guys in targets, but while Waddle got squeezed out of targets a bit, it was awesome to see Durham Smythe (3-44) in the mix with a 91% route rate. He got an end zone target at one point, and was open in the front of the end zone a little later when Tua hit River Cracraft (3-40-1) in the back of the end zone for a score. Smythe is a viable streaming TE option that should be added in deeper leagues. Cracraft and Braxton Berrios (3-42) are also watch list guys, but their routes weren’t super exciting just yet (Berrios was at 63%, Cracraft 33%). We’d like to see one of them consolidate that WR3 role.
With the other backs dinged up, Raheem Mostert (10-37-1, 2-13) had a monster 73% snaps and 70% routes, punching in one of two green zone touches. The RB receiving still wasn’t great in this one, with fullback Alec Ingold leading the way with 34 yards, but you want a guy playing a 70% snap share in an explosive offense in your lineup.
One of the big stories of last season was Justin Herbert’s low aDOT, and only twice in his first nine games did he post an aDOT over 7, while he hit 8 just once all year. After he did start to push the ball downfield a bit more in the second half, he finished with a 6.5-yard average for the year. In Week 1 here, he was at 7.2, so definitely a tick up, and much better to see than what we saw early last year, but also not some massive shift. That might be all we really need to see, though.
Keenan Allen (6-76) dominated the passing game with 9 targets and a 0.72 WOPR, and he caught a pass down to the 1-yard line where he just needed to extend to ball for the score but kept it pinned to his chest. Mike Williams (4-45) had a bit quieter of a day, and did get banged up at one point. It was interesting his targets came at a lower aDOT, while rookie Quentin Johnston (2-9) — who rotated and only ran routes on 40% of dropbacks — had the highest aDOT at 12.3, on his three looks. Other than Williams’ and Johnston’s aDOTs, this usage was more or less what I expected, with Keenan being the big target-earner, and Johnston being the rookie who needs to earn some work, but he’s playing behind Josh Palmer (1-4) who isn’t good and earned one target on nearly double QJ’s routes, so I mean eventually we’ll work our way toward the first-round rookie playing quite a bit more. Just stay patient with him.
One other big note was Gerald Everett (2-21) only running routes on 58% of dropbacks while Donald Parham (3-21-1) was out there for 43%. While this looks like a fun offense to have pieces of, Everett is probably cuttable almost immediately after that performance.
Austin Ekeler (16-117-1, 4-47) got a ton of work, and tied for the Week 1 high in HVTs with 8, but the sheer play volume in this offense has always made that No. 2 RB role enticing, and Joshua Kelley (16-91-1) appears to have totally consolidated it. More notably, he’s actually been running half-decently this year, dating back to the preseason, and while he’s very much not a threat to Ekeler, he does have some standalone value potential with possible contingent upside as well. A 49% snap share and 40% route rate in a high-octane offense is pretty legit No. 2 usage.
Signal: Dolphins — looked incredible, you want pieces of this offense; Tyreek Hill — picked up right where he left off; Durham Smythe — 91% route rate, 7 targets, end zone target (should be rostered in deep leagues); Raheem Mostert — 73% snaps, 70% routes (some ceiling concerns with how the offense functions, but a strong floor play); Austin Ekeler — 8 HVTs, stud; Joshua Kelley — legit No. 2 role with 49% snaps, 40% routes, and has looked like a more efficient runner this year dating to the preseason; Keenan Allen — 0.72 WOPR
Noise: Jaylen Waddle — 11% target share (not sweating the 5 targets, as the overall offensive success was a major positive sign); Quentin Johnston — 40% routes (a lot of rookies need to build up, but on nearly half the routes he saw three targets to Josh Palmer’s one, and Palmer isn’t good enough to keep QJ off the field, so keep him stashed)
Eagles 25, Patriots 20
Key Stat: Kenneth Gainwell — 61% snaps, 42% routes, 6 HVT, 18 total touches
Man, I don’t even know what to say about the Eagles’ backfield. I was genuinely stunned, as one of my main thoughts was the one outcome we wouldn’t see was Kenneth Gainwell (14-54, 4-20) truly consolidating the work at the expense of the other options. Now, in hindsight, I’m thinking back to Nick Sirianni literally wearing a Gainwell t-shirt to a press conference, so maybe that should have been my sign. But with respect to Gainwell, D’Andre Swift (1-3, 1-0) and Rashaad Penny (healthy scratch) are just much better backs. Keep in mind we’re talking about an elite offensive line and perhaps the premier designed-run rushing QB, so Gainwell’s 3.9 YPC in this opener is really pretty poor. Over the past two years, Miles Sanders averaged 5.5 and 4.9 yards per carry, while Gainwell was at 4.3 and 4.5 in the same offense, and then you have Swift at 5.5 in Detroit last year (4.6 for his career) and Penny literally over 6.0 both of the past two seasons, on small samples (but way up at 5.7 for his career on a much larger sample of 337 carries). Obviously I’m not thrilled about writing a whole paragraph relying on yards per carry as my central stat, but so much of the splits between yards before contact and yards after contact and all of that are just ways to get back to a simple question of whether a RB actually gains yardage. In other words, yeah, YPC sucks as a stat, but also, it is literally yards gained, and generally good rushers have good ones and bad rushers have worse ones. I’m not trying to knock Gainwell too much here, because I’m not sure he’s a bad rusher, and I’m comparing him to a group that might be described as pretty efficient ones. But I wouldn’t go throwing Swift and Penny out just yet; this still feels fluid to me, and I think when other guys get opportunities — and Sirianni acknowledged he wanted to get Swift more work — the Eagles are going to have to sort of acknowledge where their touches need to go. But I don’t know, I guess I would have expected that by now already. For what it’s worth, the Eagles play on a short week on Thursday this week, so they’d have to be really certain Gainwell is their lead guy to not mix in some other guys a little more on a short week. It’ll be interesting to see what we get in Week 2.
The passing game was crazy. We know it can be concentrated, but A.J. Brown (7-79) and DeVonta Smith (7-47-1) both saw 10 targets, while Dallas Goedert (no catches) saw just one. Goedert ran 92% routes and this is unlikely to be a thing again.
The Patriots got aggressive in negative script, and wound up running 78 plays and throwing 54 passes, numbers that led Week 1. Kendrick Bourne (6-64-2) was their clear lead dog in both routes (92%) and targets (11), while JuJu Smith-Schuster (4-33) ran routes on just 46% of dropbacks. The other beneficiary of the pass volume was Hunter Henry (5-56-1), who ran routes on 71% of dropbacks and was I think the top-scoring TE of the weekend? I can’t be bothered to check that, it’s too depressing for that whole position if true. Rookies Kayshon Boutte (four targets, no catches, 73% routes) and Demario Douglas (4-40, 7 targets, 46% routes, strong 0.26 TPRR) were both involved enough to be watch list guys. Douglas was in the slot for 93% of his snaps, while JuJu was for just 52%. Mike Gesicki (3-36) didn’t run a ton of routes but had an 88% slot rate as well. The rotation here will be one to track, and Bourne and Henry are the only real actionable pieces at the moment.
Rhamondre Stevenson (12-25, 6-64) didn’t have a great game rushing the ball, and much was made about Ezekiel Elliott (7-29, 5-14) getting one more target, but Stevenson looked good in the passing game, and got the team’s only RB green zone touch, so I think you can read into this how you want. For me, Stevenson being at a 72% snap rate and 58% routes — with the green zone touch — is a clear positive sign, especially since I expect him to look like the obvious better option than Zeke before long. Additionally, the team having 14 Team HVTs (Ty Montgomery’s aren’t showing above because he must be triggering as a WR in my database, but he caught two passes on three targets) and RBs getting 16 targets for a 30% share are promising figures for the whole backfield.
Signal: Kendrick Bourne — 92% routes, 11 targets, looks like current WR1; Rhamondre Stevenson — 72% snaps, 58% routes, 16 RB targets for the team (30% share) speaks to a fruitful environment for both him and also potentially Ezekiel Elliott, though my expectation is Elliott loses work
Noise: Kenneth Gainwell — 61% snaps, 42% routes (averaged sub-4.0 YPC in an elite rushing environment, probably isn’t talented enough to hold off Swift and Penny all year in this type of clear lead back role, but there’s obviously Signal here, too); Dallas Goedert — 1 target, 0 catches (92% routes); Patriots — 78 plays (tied most in Week 1), 54 pass attempts (most in Week 1); JuJu Smith-Schuster — the rotation is hard to read into, but for now he was rotational guy, split slot work with Demario Douglas
Rams 30, Seahawks 13
Key Stat: Puka Nacua — 0.43 TPRR, 1.06 wTPRR, 0.81 WOPR
This might have been the most impactful fantasy game of the year. I wrote in yesterday’s introduction a little about the Rams and what it means, so let’s talk about how to play it. Puka Nacua (10-119) isn’t a guy I did a ton of prospect research on, but I’m actually pretty mad at myself for that, because while I’ve mentioned he wasn’t productive — and he wasn’t, in most traditional terms — he’s exactly the kind of prospect I might have fallen in love with. You see, in Nacua’s college career, he never ran more than 234 routes in a season, and he totaled just 507 for his career, which is not much more than a typical single season at the college level. Justin Jefferson ran more in his final season at LSU, with all the numbers they put up and the extra games on the way to the National Championship. But what I never dug into was Nacua’s per-route-run stuff, and man do I feel dumb for that! This dude posted a career TPRR over 30%(!) on those 507 routes, at an aDOT of 13.7(!!), for a career collegiate wTPRR of 0.86(!!!). He also had a career 11.3 YPT(!!!!) for a career YPRR of 3.45(!!!!!). This is exactly why I care about per-route-run stats, and I missed it, in part because he was a Day 3 pick, and in part because he had to transfer from a Power 5 school (Washington) to a smaller school (BYU) where his best seasons featured only 48 catches and 805 yards, and that despite staying four years his best Dominator Rating was only 25% (and yards per team attempt not way better), so I just assumed there wasn’t a lot more to that story. And I’m not even saying I would have been all in on this guy, because those are all legitimate red flags, and it’s probably why he was the 20th receiver drafted. (Why didn’t he play more by his senior season at BYU? He played 12 and 9 games his final two seasons. So weird for an NFL-caliber prospect.) But when you recognize that he was this good per-route, that becomes a pretty enticing profile. And unlike Tutu Atwell (6-119), who also had a strong game — and also has a really strong production profile from college — Nacua actually has legit size at 6-2, 210 pounds. I don’t know what happens when Cooper Kupp comes back — assuming he does — but I don’t think you fade the guy who just earned 15 targets in his first career game, and as I wrote yesterday, I think you have to be very bullish on what we saw from Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay this week. The Rams aren’t going to be great, but they aren’t going to suck, and Nacua looks like he might be the immediate beneficiary in a huge way. I’m in.
Nacua ran 90% routes, and so did Atwell and Van Jefferson (4-24) in what was a concentrated passing attack. Jefferson had a terrible drop at one point, and we know by now he’s not a breakout player. Atwell was good, but at a 15.8 aDOT, he was more of a shot player. His TPRR, wTPRR, and WOPR were all quite a bit below where Nacua was, and again I will mention Atwell’s size, where I just don’t know that he can be much more than a shot player. And the deep shots aren’t going to hit every week like they will against Seattle. So I’m cautiously into Atwell, but I want to be clear this isn’t an either/or for me. Nacua’s the prize, by kind of a lot.
Tyler Higbee (3-49) had a quiet game, but was out there for 79% routes, and continues to matter just from a route volume sense.
The other major story here was the RB room. Kyren Williams (15-52-2, two targets, zero receptions) wound up posting a really strong game, and frankly he surprised me. He’s another one where I need to eat some crow, but also, there remain some real issues with the profile of a sub-200-pound back who ran greater than a 4.6 40-yard dash, had bad explosion numbers, and really relies on a good 10-yard split and some decent agility numbers for really any athletic profile at all. To be fair, you did see some of that short-area burst in this game, and that’s the kind of profile that can work really well in the passing game, too, but you’re not going to get big efficiency, as you see with his 3.5 YPC. It’s upside that still very much matters at his cost, but his two touchdowns are doing a lot of heavy lifting for his big week, plus obviously the 64% snaps and 72% routes, which came out of nowhere. Cam Akers (22-29-1) was at 36% snaps and just 5% routes, and notably somehow had an even worse RYOE than Rachaad White’s (which I referenced yesterday as a massive red flag for him and how it would have been one of the worst in 2022; yeah, Akers was even worse). So Kyren legit might not have a real threat to work right now, and could particularly become an asset in PPR leagues with that massive 72% routes, and also got three green zone touches to just two for Akers. It’s sort of a Jamaal Williams 2022 type thing where it doesn’t even really matter if Kyren isn’t likely to be efficient; the role is just great (to be clear, Jamaal’s specific role is not what I envision for Kyren).
On Seattle’s side, things did not go as expected in their opener. Geno Smith wound up throwing just 26 times for 112 yards, and only D.K. Metcalf (3-47-1) posted more than 20 receiving yards. Tyler Lockett (2-10) got banged up but returned shortly after, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3-13) had an uneventful debut, but did draw 5 targets and run a solid 66% routes. Their passing attack is not likely to be this unproductive most weeks.
Ken Walker (12-64, 4-3) easily led the way on the ground with a 63% snap share, and somewhat surprisingly also dominated the pass snaps at 55% routes. A couple of Walker’s four catches were designed passes, which was great to see as well. He’s a clear start going forward. Zach Charbonnet (3-11) started out with a pretty uninspiring workload, but he’s someone to hold and watch, given he was banged up a bit in August and is obviously a rookie.
Signal: Puka Nacua — 90% routes, 0.43 TPRR, 1.06 wTPRR, elite collegiate per-route numbers, legit size, potential to be real hit in a passing game that looks interesting and needs someone to be a real hit right now; Kyren Williams — 64% snaps, 72% routes, 3 green zone touches, and Cam Akers posted one of the worst rushing lines in a single game by RYOE since the start of last year (Williams is in a great spot with limited competition, Akers is in real trouble); Tutu Atwell — 90% routes, deep threat role at 15.8 aDOT (I envision more of a boom/bust profile); Kenneth Walker — 63% snaps, 55% routes, some designed receiving looks, all very promising usage, just in a poor game for Seattle’s offense
Noise: Geno Smith — 26 pass attempts, 112 pass yards (the pie obviously needs to be bigger for any of Seattle’s passing-game stuff to work, but it should be given the talent); Zach Charbonnet — 3 touches (not crazy surprising for a rookie who missed time in August, and he retains contingent value if nothing else)
Cowboys 40, Giants 0
Key Stat: Tony Pollard — 6 green zone touches (most in Week 1)
We’ve reached, “I need to blow through a game quickly” just in time for a game we can blow through. The Cowboys got a blocked field goal return for a TD and a pick-six early, which has the effect of erasing Dallas drives (they only ran 26 offensive plays in the first half) while also pushing them toward what eventually became extreme positive game script. So we got a goose egg from one offense who couldn’t get anything going, and the other offense didn’t really need to try.
Tony Pollard (14-70-2, 2-12) got a Week 1 high six green zone touches, converting two for short scores, which was a massive development. Already a high-end receiving back, his 60% route rate was expected, but this combination pushed him into a Week 1 tie for the lead with 8 HVTs. This is the ceiling usage you were hoping for when drafting him in the second round. Wheels up.
Rico Dowdle (6-24) was the main No. 2, while Deuce Vaughn got his snaps with the backup group, taking handoffs from Cooper Rush.
Dak Prescott only threw 24 passes, with CeeDee Lamb (4-77) and Brandin Cooks (2-22) each getting only four targets apiece. Lamb looked good, though, and this lack of volume was script-related. The one interesting target-related note was Jake Ferguson (2-11) seeing 7 targets for a 28% share, and a ridiculous 0.5 TPRR given he only ran routes on 56% of dropbacks. We’ll see how his role develops — and he didn’t do himself any favors with some drops, including a bad one on a third dwon — but the volume-earning was a minor positive note. The routes need to come up.
The Giants struggled, as I noted, totaling just 171 yards in a rainy game. Saquon Barkley (12-51, 3-12) dominated the backfield, but left a bit early while Daniel Jones stayed out there, despite being under pressure all game. One Giants beat counted seven additional QB hits Jones took after the game was well out of hand. Darren Waller (3-36) — who was dealing with a hammy — also got an early exit.
Darius Slayton (3-15) and Parris Campbell (1-2) led the way in routes, but things were pretty split, and it’s tough to get a good read when the game goes sideways this early, and the coach leaves the QB in but not all the starters.
Signal: Tony Pollard — 8 HVTs, 6 green zone touches, 60% route rate (wheels up); Jake Ferguson — mixed bag with only 56% routes, but ridiculous 0.5 TPRR (need to see the routes rise, also need to see him catch the ball, as he only brought in 2-of-7 targets)
Noise: Dak Prescott — 24 passes (script-related); CeeDee Lamb — 4 targets (script-related); Giants — usage splits (Daniel Jones played until late in the game, but Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller seemed to come out early, and it’s really tough to get a read on usage under those circumstances)
Jets 22, Bills 16
Key Stat: Breece Hall — +81 Rush Yards Over Expected, per Next Gen Stats (fifth most in a game since the beginning of 2022)
What a wild finish. Josh Allen probably doesn’t deserve the emphasis on his three-INT game, particularly given the first one game on a third-and-8 and was essentially an arm punt. But it did get weird from there — the second was a bit of a confusing throw on a second down, the third was just bad, and the fumble after the Jets tied it up was a great example of just pressing. He dropped the snap, picked it up, and tried to gain as many yards as he could, but he did it all so fast he ran right into his pulling tight end, and lost the ball again. Just pure panic. Obviously, there was a ton that happened in this game, but the Jets eventually winning on an overtime punt return was a pretty bonkers way to cap Week 1.
Hit on the Aaron Rodgers injury in the intro, but it’s a significant blow to the whole offense, there’s no other way to say it. Zach Wilson looked about as bad as ever; don’t be fooled by the Jets surprise win if you missed the game. Garrett Wilson (5-34-1) caught all his targets, including one of the best touchdowns you’ll frankly ever see, but Zach’s passing aDOT was 5.1 yards downfield, meaning he’s not even really able to attack defenses in a way that create opportunities. What’s funny about that number is — as the Mannings and Ryan Fitzpatrick joked on the Manningcast — he’s often so far behind the line of scrimmage he’s throwing the ball huge distances, like 20 or 30 yards, for a pass that goes 5 yards downfield, and aDOT is measured from the line of scrimmage. So anyway, a huge part of his problem is he can’t just stand in there, diagnose a defense, and deliver a ball, and instead he’s bailing out of the pocket and running the wrong direction like a 12-year old button-mashing in Madden. I’m coping.
Allen Lazard (2-46) ran routes on 100% of dropbacks but is probably droppable before long, and so is Tyler Conklin (1-2) if you have him. I might hold through this week’s waiver run to see what happens at QB, and if they bring anyone in, but the ceiling case for these guys was largely tied to Rodgers.
Breece Hall (10-127, 2-1-20) was a revelation. His 83-yard run had some highlight truthers pointing out he didn’t look 100%, which, duh, but also, he makes an unblocked defender miss easily at the line of scrimmage, then the move he made on Jordan Poyer in the open field, to just completely leave him in the dust, was an acceleration back to the middle of the field that was actually super impressive, but it also had him running diagonally right into the second safety, who he then had adjust to wind up moving away from him — it wasn’t a straight-line sprint by any means, and while I do think he probably scores on that play last year, and when he’s 100%, he didn’t get “caught,” and there are very few RBs in the NFL even fully healthy who would have gained 80 yards on that play.
I will readily admit he looked gassed by the end of the play, but with all that change of direction at speed we’re talking probably close to 100 yards of sprinting, which isn’t going to come up a whole lot, and there are people out here who were comparing it to when J.K. Dobbins clearly didn’t look 100% in the open field last year, and it was just not that. Breece looked good on that play, and on several others. His explosion erased defenders’ angles, both at the line of scrimmage and at the second level of the defense. Being able to blow past Poyer so convincingly as to get clear of the second safety as he made the right turn in the open field — yes, he drifted off to the sideline from there, but I don’t think people are recognizing that so few RBs in the NFL are doing that first part. They would have been tackled somewhere in the middle of the field for like a 20- or 30-yard run, and that’s assuming they got through the unblocked White at the line.
Dalvin Cook (10-33, 3-26) saw a lot more usage, including a 50% route rate, while Michael Carter also mixed in quite a bit in the passing game. But Breece’s role is only going to expand from here, and he was very clearly moving at a different speed than the other guys. This offense is going to need to flow through the ground attack going forward — Zach Wilson threw just 21 passes in trail script, and the Jets were at -10.2% PROE — and they’ll need explosive plays, so it’ll need to flow through Breece specifically.
I thought James Cook (12-46, 4-17) looked good, and he had a near miss on a RB wheel route where Allen just left the ball a little short for what could have been about a 20-yard receiving TD. Latavius Murray (2-8, 1-9) surprisingly ran some routes in this one, and Damien Harris (1-3, 2-16) got the long RB green zone touch, so those elements weren’t great. But Cook’s 61% snaps and 51% routes were more positive than negative.
Stefon Diggs (10-102-1) had a monster game on 13 targets, posting a 0.77 WOPR that dwarfed the rest of the passing game. That’ll happen sometimes with him (and other top guys), obviously, but it probably isn’t a death knell for the secondary pieces, either. Gabe Davis (2-32) ran a bunch of routes, while the TE combo was out there together a ton, and the Bills were both running behind them and throwing into that side of the field when they’d line them up next to each other. Dawson Knox (3-25) and Dalton Kincaid (4-26) were both at 75%+ snap shares, and Kincaid has plenty of room to grow over his rookie year and probably the most upside to be the team’s second weapon. Deonte Harty (3-9) also got some designed looks early, but his route rate was only 28%.
Signal: Breece Hall — not 100% yet, but plenty explosive, and only going to get more work as time rolls on; James Cook — got squeezed a bit with Murray routes and a Harris green zone touch, but 61% snaps and 51% routes are very strong numbers; Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox — both over 75% route rates, heavy two-TE usage with Kincaid playing a lot of stand-up slot, as discussed this offseason
Noise: Jets — preseason expectations, and ADPs, which took a significant hit moving from Aaron Rodgers to Zach Wilson; Michael Carter — 31% routes (first thing that Breece will work into, I’d imagine)
Biggest Signals
Vaguely ranked in order of relevance/importance (which includes whether it was surprising and size of impact; if it’s important but just confirmation of something we knew or thought we knew, it ranks a little lower; also, there are a million Week 1 so how I ranked these is obviously tough).
Puka Nacua — 90% routes, 0.43 TPRR, 1.06 wTPRR, elite collegiate per-route numbers, legit size, potential to be real hit in a passing game that looks interesting and needs someone to be a real hit right now
Kyren Williams — 64% snaps, 72% routes, 3 green zone touches, and Cam Akers posted one of the worst rushing lines in a single game by RYOE since the start of last year (Williams is in a great spot with limited competition, Akers is in real trouble)
Justice Hill — played ahead of Gus Edwards before Dobbins injury, Hill is priority pickup