Stealing Signals, Week 1, Part 1
Stealing Signals, Week 1, Part 1
The Signal and the Noise from TNF and the early Sunday games
Before I even get going, I just want to say right off the top that you can find an audio version of this and all posts in the Substack app. Also, if you’re reading this in email, it will be truncated, so make sure to click “read more” whenever you hit that point. You can always find the full post, as well as probably easier-to-read versions of the visuals, at bengretch.substack.com.
We’re here, it’s Week 1 Stealing Signals.
I gotta be honest — I’ve written this post for so long now that while you might assume it’s second nature, I don’t think I’ve ever been this nervous about it. The further I go in this industry, the more people seem to enjoy it, the more it becomes necessary to innovate and improve, while also feeling the weight of expectations.
Meanwhile, there are far more similar pieces to this one out there than there were when I started this. Like, far more. If you think I don’t ask myself how I justify charging money for it when those exist, you’re crazy.
But what I’ve come to understand is that the best way for me to do this is to write it how I want to. That’s why you all found your way here in the first place, and that’s why you continue to show up. If I start trying to write this piece to fit someone else’s idea of what Stealing Signals is, that’s when I’ll know it’s time to hang ‘em up.
There’s also a really interesting dynamic in Week 1 where we’ve spent all offseason discussing so many things, and the things we were wrong on strike the hardest. And when I talk about expectations, I know there are plenty who are reading this just to see me take an L on something they disagreed with. That’s the nature of the gig, and there are people around this industry I truly admire for how well they roll with those punches.
But here’s the thing: I think a decent amount of the overreaction from Week 1 comes because of these types of forces. You get what amounts to peer pressure to admit a fault — or even claim a victory — and suddenly the results get boiled down into a binary “success/failure” dilemma that after one solitary data point — just one (1) week — is without question the worst way to think about things.
We’ve been talking about ranges of outcomes and contingent scenarios for months. We’ve been considering what factors might lead to floor outcomes and what might lead to ceilings. And while we don’t want to under-react to Week 1, we do need to be delicate with the immense amount of data we’ve taken on in the past 24 hours.
As always, chaos is the rule in the NFL. Some crazy things happened yesterday, but if you think those were surprising, just you wait for what happens next. The one thing I’m certain about is things will continue to evolve. It’s not as simple as saying, “Hey, remember that time Sammy Watkins lit up Week 1 and then did nothing the rest of the year?” Of course it’s not. But these offenses are absolutely still trying to figure themselves out — something that feels even more true in Week 1 the past couple years since the advent of 17-game schedules and shorter preseasons.
If I do have some sort of special wisdom that makes reading Signals worth your time and money, it probably comes from a lifetime of obsession with football and stats and all of those things. The Sammy Watkins thing isn’t the whole point, but it is a reminder of something I do feel very strongly — a confidence that what we saw this week will in a great many cases be “Noise.” And that’s what we’re here for. If you’re new, that’s what my goal is. We’re trying to identify what was Signal and what was Noise.
I started this column years ago to explain the usage and the data that we were seeing, in a descriptive sense. It’s evolved, though, as things do, and that’s so little of the value add here in 2023, where as I’ve said, you can find that information a lot of places if you look. I’ll still hit on it, of course — I’ve actually added some tables to better list some of that out in a more actionable way, and I’m hopeful finally displaying some of that stuff actually frees up the written sections.
Bu the value add isn’t there anymore. It’s in the predictions, and the ways I try to predict. As these teams work to figure themselves out, we’re working to figure out what their best versions look like. We don’t just want playing time; we want successful playing time. We want guys in roles that are working for their teams, where team success and personal statistical success are overlapping realities.
Fantasy football is not about comparing usage rates as apples to apples observations across teams. It’s understanding this is an evolving league with 32 distinct ecosystems, and they absolutely are distinct. Too much analysis in this space boils things down to aggregation of data across the whole league and then misapplying the general to the specific. Because it’s easier. It’s quicker. And in many cases, it’s simply that it’s an answer, where a deeper dive into the situation leads to caveats and gray areas that have to acknowledge how uncertain this all is.
But if you want to hit on the next big thing — whether that’s for seasonal fantasy, or betting, or DFS, or dynasty — you have to see that uncertainty in advance. I’ll give one quick example here before I get into the games. One of my most frustrating whiffs in Week 1 was the combination of Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. That whiff was particularly frustrating for me because I’ve said several times that I didn’t buy the narrative that the Rams were just going to implode. I mean, there’s always risk that teams are going to fail. But Matthew Stafford is good, and the dude’s career is winding down, and he has legacy stuff on the line. Similarly, Sean McVay is a young head coach with a massive chip on his shoulder. I listen to him talk and I know he takes losing personal. In that Playcallers podcast series at The Athletic I referenced several times this offseason, host Jordan Rodrigue (who I won’t stop complimenting for her work on that series) took time to emphasize the personal impact the 2022 season had on McVay.
Anyway, I started my Offseason Stealing Signals post on the Rams calling them “misunderstood” in the first sentence, and discussing that I felt the market was essentially making a lazy decision to say their 2023 was going to look exactly like their 2022 (which is usually a great way to spot faulty analysis in a chaotic league, when that analysis is just saying “well this looks a lot like what we saw last time”). I emphasized that McVay is still a good coach, and “the idea from some seems to be that these guys are just comfortable with the underperformance last year and are going to be happy to do it again, as opposed to them sort of having something to prove after a Super Bowl hangover season and they maybe bounce back a bit.”
I went on further, getting abstract about how teams are motivated over multi-year stretches, etc. The point is not that I was right; they might still implode next week. The point is that when I think of a miss, it’s not on binary terms. This is one where I identified something that I feel like I saw in Week 1 — I chalk up the Rams’ surprising performance to McVay being a good enough coach to come prepared with answers for the test of the 2023 season, and Stafford to be a good enough quarterback and one that has been very successful with McVay where even some of the personnel issues they have wouldn’t destroy their ability to at least be a successful team in spurts. But I also identified that it wouldn’t be Van Jefferson who a successful passing game flowed through, as my past thoughts on him have certainly explained. He’s the one the market was playing as the biggest beneficiary of the Cooper Kupp injury, pushing him up into the Round 9/Round 10 range right after the WR Window closed in my final high-stakes drafts (a range that — as we acknowledge our uncertainties — absolutely forced me to question whether I was the one missing something, though I stayed very firm that the market was wrong on this one).
But the point is, the cheap shots on the uncertainty and upside of Nacua and Atwell should have been where I landed. At least some exposure to these guys. And I didn’t like their profiles either — despite not having the information I did have on Jefferson, which gets back to the dichotomy between some information and no information that I wrote about just 10 days ago in a piece that resonated with a lot of you — and I let certainty of something I couldn’t know blind me to the most logical beneficiaries of a possibility within a range of outcomes I’d actually correctly identified on the team level. What I’m saying is all that I wrote about the Rams and McVay and Stafford on the team level — while pretty solidly accurate through one week — was pointless because my actual draft responses were incongruous with the ways that might have benefitted my (and by extension, your) teams. And that’s why the miss is so frustrating.
That example is meant to drive home the two main points of this introduction. First, that results are not binary. That’s a big miss for me, and now those players are much more expensive to acquire which creates a different conversation, but the reason it was a miss for me is different than the reasons I missed on many other players in Week 1. And understanding the why of both the hits and the misses, and being willing to peel back the layers of the onion, are how you find the next Nacua or Atwell.
The second main point is that no two teams do things exactly the same. No two players in the NFL are the same. We need to be open to unique outcomes. But what is common across all 32 situations we are attempting to analyze is we’re looking for answers, and the best answers will come from the successful situations. What makes Nacua and Atwell so compelling is that McVay did have answers, and Stafford did look back, making high-level throws, while so many other Week 1 offenses — and quarterbacks — looked lost. We know that after the 2022 season, defenses have challenged offenses enough that there are likely to be teams who are extremely bad for fantasy production altogether. We can’t ignore that, on the team level, like so many analysts seem to want to right now. The micro-level player takes that are the overwhelming focus of everything I’m seeing right now continue to ignore that the macro-level analysis of each team environment and the league as a whole is where there are major edges to be had.
So that’s going to be woven into Week 1 Stealing Signals. If you find yourself unsure of why I’m more optimistic of one player over another, given what feels like similar usage or market sentiment, consider what I’ve written about their offense as a whole, dating back to the offseason, and whether it might just be that I’m far more optimistic on one team versus another.
Let’s get into the analysis. If you’re new around here, this article breaks down Thursday Night Football and the early Sunday games, while I’ll be back with Part 2 tomorrow to break down the later Sunday games, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football. Part 2 will also close each week with the biggest Signals and Noise of the week, as well as looks at some key RB volume numbers for identifying the types of backup RBs to stash, most specifically Team HVT.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run.
Here are some important statistics/concepts to know for Stealing Signals:
aDOT — Average depth of target. The number of yards downfield, with the line of scrimmage being zero, that a player’s average target traveled, with higher meaning deeper passes.
Green Zone — Inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. Some use inside the 5 or goal-line specific data, and I’ve discussed in the past why I use a bit wider view, including the intro to Week 1 in 2021.
HVT — High-Value Touches: Green zone touches plus receptions. Touchdown potential and pass-catching upside are the keys to RB upside in PPR, while rush attempts outside scoring range are far lower in fantasy value.
PROE — Pass Rate Over Expected: How frequently a team calls pass plays relative to what we’d expect considering factors like down and distance, time, and score. There is a formula to calculated Expected Pass Rate based on those factors, then PROE is the difference between actual pass rate and that number.
Route Share/Route Participation/Route Rate — I use these interchangeably but I’m almost always referring to routes run divided by dropbacks. Routes are the true opportunity metric for receiving value, while targets are more of a hybrid opportunity/efficiency metric.
TPRR — Targets Per Route Run: Pretty self explanatory, and my preferred way of breaking down the popular stat Yards Per Route Run. Targets are earned, not handed out. I wrote substantially more about TPRR here.
TRAP — Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage: For running backs, the percentage of all touches that are not High-Value Touches, which are low-value rush attempts outside scoring range. A higher TRAP means a high percentage of low-value touches, which is worse for fantasy production.
WOPR — Weighted Opportunity Rating: A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer which balances team share of targets and team share of air yards. Because a player’s WOPR is a share of his team’s overall opportunity, it’s important to consider team volume as additional context.
wTPRR — Weighted TPRR: Includes air yards, with targets and air yards weighted similarly to WOPR.
Lions 21, Chiefs 20
Key Stat: Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice — 0.45, 0.42 TPRRs
The Thursday night opener was frankly a bit of a dud. The Chiefs led Week 1 (through Sunday) with a +12.7% PROE, but were forced into the kind of matriculate-down-the-field offense we know the Cover 2 shells have been trying to force teams like KC into dating back to 2021. The Lions were more content to run the ball at a -6.3% PROE, in part because they were firmly in a road game with the defending champs. The Lions chose to go for it on a late fourth down, but they’d earlier punted from Kansas City’s 40-yard line in a tie game with about six minutes left in the third quarter, on a fourth-and-3, so Dan Campbell definitely didn’t win this game through aggression. Rather, the Chiefs matched their conservatism some, opting for field goals on each of their next two possessions on a fourth-and-2 from the 17-yard line and then a fourth-and-2 from the 21-yard line. Those two kicks turned a 14-14 tie into a 20-14 lead, and then inevitably into a 21-20 loss.
The Chiefs’ passing game clearly missed Travis Kelce, and one of my big takeaways from Thursday was with all the other TE injuries, maybe Kelce is just destined to win the position by 100 points again this year, a thought that yesterday’s larger slate of games did nothing to contradict given the complete lack of scoring at the position across the league. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2 receptions for 48 yards) and Skyy Moore (0-0) led the way in routes among the WRs, as expected, but they both really struggled to earn targets. One of my main notes from the game was that seemingly every dropback, Patrick Mahomes was waiting, then needing to scramble, which is a great indication that his receivers simply weren’t getting open.
Another indication? Rashee Rice (3-29-1) and Kadarius Toney (1-1) ran 12 and 11 routes and each earned 5 targets (also known as the number Skyy and MVS combined for on their 62 total routes). You can see from the WOPR column above that no one separated volume-wise for the Chiefs, but what Rice and Toney did on limited routes is notable. And yes, despite Toney looking absolutely terrible, I do mean to include him here. His drop-turned-pick-six and other mistakes were a major storyline, but there’s no denying that the Chiefs need guys who can get open to be running routes, and typically we need to fade drops, although obviously this was one of the wildest drops-related performances you’ll ever see. But if Skyy is another MVS in terms of running a lot of routes but not being able to earn volume, there’s real opportunity here for the other guys, even if they are rotational.
More so than Toney, though — and even Kelce, because that was largely known — Rice was probably my biggest winner in this passing game. As a rookie, it’s not alarming that Rice started out in a minor role and might need to earn more playing time. He may have arguably already done that, earning as much volume as Toney but not volleyball setting passes to defenders for easy interceptions, and even catching a touchdown. It may take a few weeks for his role to expand, but everything I said about Toney applies to Rice, too, and right now my focus on the upside in this passing game centers on Kelce obviously first and then Rice and Toney as the other two.
It’s worth noting Richie James (1-6) ran routes on 40% of dropbacks and Justin Watson (2-45) was at 36%, as this was a massive rotation.
The Chiefs’ backfield was equally interesting in this one. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (6 rushes for 22 yards, 1 reception for 7) got the start, and played the first two downs before Jerick McKinnon (no rushes, 1-10) came on for the first third down, and then CEH came back on for first down after the conversion, with Isiah Pacheco (8-23, 4-31) finally taking the field for second down after that. And yet, despite that weird start, Pacheco’s role looked strong throughout, as he wound up running more routes than McKinnon and also getting the only green zone touch, totaling 5 High-Value Touches to easily lead the backfield, while also surprisingly leading in routes. That’s a bullish sign for him, a concern for McKinnon given that’s his main usage, and CEH’s work makes him at least a viable handcuff, although if Pacheco missed time I imagine McKinnon would take back the routes, not CEH, and CEH’s work here in Week 1 being largely low-value touches is perhaps a pretty notable element of how they were all used.
On the victor’s side, the usage was pretty straightforward. There seemed to be a lot of concern about Jahmyr Gibbs’ role, but it was unsurprising to me, honestly, that the team would rely on the veteran a bit more in a Week 1 road game like this, and then particularly when you see that David Montgomery had 20 low-value touches to just 1 HVT, while Gibbs had the 3 HVTs among his 9 total touches. Yes, Montgomery ran substantially more routes, which was surprising. I just don’t see that sticking in any sense. It’s exciting for Montgomery, sure, but I’d argue it wouldn’t be that surprising if Gibbs’ 26% route rate goes does as his lowest figure of the season. Gibbs also could have scored a touchdown if not for stumbling over his own feet while trying to bounce a green zone carry outside. In fairness, Montgomery had limped off the field just before that (he returned in short order), so Gibbs’ usage in close was perhaps situational, and Montgomery did get the later green zone touch, which he converted. If you have Montgomery, you were excited by this game, certainly, and I would expect the Team HVTs to typically be higher than the four the Lions posted this first week, which will benefit Monty and help offset some of what Gibbs will likely take from him in future weeks, as Gibbs’ role expands.
The Lions’ passing game was about as expected. Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-71-1) led the way with 9 targets, and looked very good right out of the gate. Josh Reynolds (4-80) also earned some nice volume with 7 looks, but the ancillary WRs were largely underwhelming, most notably Marvin Jones, who caught just 2-of-6 targets and fumbled away one of the ones he did catch in the red zone. Sam LaPorta caught all 5 targets he saw for 39 yards, which was a really nice debut for the rookie who ran routes on 75% of dropbacks. Yes, Brock Wright was a little involved, but that usage for LaPorta is a great starting point and honestly might just rise from there.
Signal: Rashee Rice — strong 12 routes, still needs more playing time, but rookies tend to earn that over time when they perform; Skyy Moore — 3 targets on 29 routes; Isiah Pacheco — led backfield with 42% routes, got only green zone touch, 5 HVT; David Montgomery — I have Gibbs as Noise below, and that could cut directly into Monty’s specific usage, but some degree of it was certainly exciting for how the team views Monty; Amon-Ra St. Brown — going to smash; Sam LaPorta — 75% route share is a strong starting point for a rookie; Noah Gray — 82% route share is notable for if Travis Kelce were to miss anymore time
Noise: Kadarius Toney — drops, general terrible play (the targets on such low routes were actually pretty bullish given what KC needs and what the other guys didn’t do); Jahmyr Gibbs — 26% routes (still had 3 HVTs, caught two passes on just 9 total routes, and would expect this routes number to climb quickly in particular); Lions — 4 Team HVTs (expecting this to be very low for them as well)
Falcons 24, Panthers 10
Key Stat: Falcons — 48 plays, -12.2% PROE (lowest in Week 1, through Sunday), 18 pass attempts, 9 RB targets
I’m pretty sure it’s cruel and unusual punishment that I have to write about this game as my second of the year. Let’s start at the end, with Arthur Smith’s post-game comments, after he got a win against a rookie QB who threw two bad INTs in a game where they won the turnover battle 3 to 0 and yet converted just 13 first downs and seemed to be intentionally trying to keep Carolina in it — this game was tied 10-10 through three quarters — and win in the most offensive way possible, simply to get angry at anyone who dared ask him why he is afraid of the forward pass.
One of the top comments on that tweet is this:
Kudos to Greg — an excellent long-time Bucs’ beat who is now covering the whole NFC South — because that comment has been repeated enough that people think it’s true. And so I just want to dig into that a bit. The Falcons went 7-10 last year, while playing 13 one-score games. Their whole ethos was to slow the game down as much as possible and keep it close, rather than developing their young players, and yes they were at one point 4-4 — which is where some of this narrative started — but they’d gotten fortunate, including a win over the Panthers in that DJ Moore helmet toss game where Eddy Pineiro missed two potential game-winning kicks, and then they lost six of their next seven, falling to 5-10, before a 1-point win over the David-Blough-quarterbacked Cardinals in Week 17 and then a Week 18 victory over a Bucs’ team that had clinched their playoff slot and used three different QBs. That is how they got to their 7-10 record, and we’re right back here where he’s led this team to a 48-play, 18-pass-attempt win in Week 1, and we’re doing the same shit when people ask why Drake London got only one target — and guys, you know I wasn’t drafting much Drake London, I was answering questions about why I wasn’t higher on his Year 2 profile all offseason, and I was citing this exact stuff — but these results are not something to be lauded. Arthur Smith is not some genius. He’s preying on low expectations, and meanwhile fans of the sport don’t even really get to see London and Kyle Pitts play football. They have another easy early-season schedule, so you might see 4-4 again, while they burn through London’s and Pitts’ rookie contracts. This sucks, and I hate it here.
Pitts looked incredible on his two catches, by the way. I wish I could embed tweets, but here’s a link to him making one of the best plays of the week while fighting through a (declined) defensive pass interference for a 34-yard gain. This play didn’t even really circulate much on Twitter because no one really knows if Pitts even exists anymore. But as far as how to play it, you’re less panicked about a TE in this situation because there’s such a lower bar at TE (did you see those Week 1 TE results?).
Bijan Robinson (10-56, 6-27-1) looked electric, particularly on the swing pass he caught where he evaded the first tackler, broke through another, and went 11 yards for a touchdown. Getting to see the elusiveness and fight-through-contact physicality on display from one moment to another is exactly why everyone is so excited about Robinson, and he would have likely been the overall RB1 if he played anywhere but in Arthur Smith’s offense, where it surprised absolutely no one that Tyler Allgeier (15-75-2, 3-19) got all four green zone touches en route to a two-score game. Robinson’s 77% route percentage was still massive, but I’m mildly concerned about how Cordarrelle Patterson — who was inactive here — might impact that (note that Patterson was listed in his own “Joker” position on the initial depth chart, which likely means some routes of his own). I do expect Robinson to take back some of the green zone work at some point — his TD reception was one yard outside the green zone, so that more or less already qualified. Ideally, he’s also not getting five fewer carries than Allgeier most weeks, and again that is something I’d expect to lean toward Bijan going forward, but Allgeier is very talented, and Arthur Smith is very unpredictable. Broadly, you’re starting Bijan, and you should be starting Allgeier and his 45% route share as well. One of the very tilting parts of the 18 pass attempts Desmond Ridder threw was that nine went to these two RBs, which leaves very few for the downfield weapons obviously, but is promising for the RB’s HVT potential.
Oh, one last thing on Ridder. I saw some stuff about how he was somehow worse than Marcus Mariota and all these things. Maybe Mariota’s really bad on-target rate last year was in part because they never called passes. Maybe getting an opportunity to throw a little bit on early downs and in nonobvious spots, and make some easy completions, helps. Maybe part of the reason Ridder also couldn’t get into a rhythm making the downfield reads and kept taking checkdowns is he didn’t have the effing reps. I circled back to make this point after getting through the Texans’ game, which I’ll get into below, but that’s a great counterexample where a team allowed their young QB the opportunity to struggle through it a little bit. And yes, the Texans lost and the Falcons won, but they were playing very different opponents, etc.
I thought Bryce Young looked OK for the majority of this one, before his two poor interceptions late. There’s a real issue here where the surrounding cast is just not that good, and that was evident with Hayden Hurst (5-41-1) posting the only game besides Miles Sanders (18-72, 4-26) with more than two receptions. Terrace Marshall (2-23) got a lot of run with DJ Chark out, and Marshall had a nice early catch, but he ultimately caught just two of his six targets. Jonathan Mingo (2-17) caught just two of five. The main WRs all ran routes on over 90% of dropbacks, while Hurst was down at 64%, which makes his 7 targets a little tough to buy. Maybe we’ll see his routes expand, though, if he’s consistently Young’s top target. Everything here needs to be about making Young comfortable.
Sanders had a strong role, but Chuba Hubbard did play quite a bit as well. On their first drive, Laviska Shenault got a carry on a third-and-1 in the red zone, and then Hubbard got the fourth-and-1, and both failed to convert. That was obviously not ideal to see for Sanders drafters, but Sanders got a later carry from the 6-yard line that was the team’s only RB green zone touch, so while there’s some potential risk to his short-yardage role with the earlier usage, it’s at least split at worst.
Beyond that, I don’t have much on the Panthers. It’s a situation to monitor because right now it doesn’t feel like one that’s going to be great for fantasy. Might be something to get back in on a few weeks down the road, though.
Signal: Tyler Allgeier — 18 touches, 7 HVT, 45% routes, all four RB green zone touches, very startable usage even if he loses a little bit, which I do expect; Bijan Robinson — 77% routes, six targets, 6 HVTs; Panthers — route rates over 90% for each of the main three WRs, with Marshall filling in for Chark
Noise: Kyle Pitts, Drake London — 9 non-RB targets in the whole passing game (it just simply cannot be this bad for an entire new season, I refuse to accept it); Hayden Hurst — team-high 7 targets (tough to buy that with only a 64% route rate, but he was the most productive weapon for Young in this one)
Ravens 25, Texans 9
Key Stat: Zay Flowers — 36% TPRR, 45% target share
We just left Arthur Smith, but here’s the most depressing part of Week 1. We won’t get to see J.K. Dobbins again this year, which just sucks for fans of the sport. He’s a really fun dude to watch, and he was off to a nice start, despite a low YPC on his first eight carries, given he’d scored an impressive short touchdown, and had also already seen three targets with two receptions for 15 yards. At the point he got hurt on the first drive of the second half, the other Ravens’ RBs had a combined one touch. I had made a quick note that the targets looked great and he was going to be a smash in this new offense. And then he’s just out, and that’s it. I don’t want to dwell on it, but this stuff obviously sucks. It’s horrible for the player, who has already missed so much time in his young career. It’s also tough for us, as that tier of Dead Zone RBs I referenced so many times — that was such a key quartet we were attacking this year, and I’m sure many of you have Dobbins as a result. It’s been a rough couple of years with major player targets getting injured.
Justice Hill (8-9-2, no targets) was maybe a bit of a bright side, given he’d gotten the one non-Dobbins touch before Dobbins’ injury, and came in for a TD on the play immediately following Dobbins’ injury. Gus Edwards (8-32) did get the 2-point conversion after that touchdown — which was the HVT you see in the above table — but he really added more work as the Ravens were pulling away, including six fourth-quarter rushes. Hopefully a few of you have Hill stashed in some deep leagues as a result of us being bullish on his August in Preseason Stealing Signals columns. Hill would be my top waiver priority this week; I think the Texans’ defense was lowkey pretty good in this one, but that the Ravens should do a lot of good things going forward, and that Hill is the best bet to take advantage of that, arguably even if they add someone from free agency (and especially if all they do is elevate Melvin Gordon). You could also make a case for Puka Nacua, certainly, but essentially I’m siding with liking Hill’s profile for a long time, and then seeing him really look good in the preseason, plus more certainty the opportunity will be there for him all year, whereas there’s at least some conversation around Nacua and what happens if Cooper Kupp plays for a long stretch of this year.
The new-look passing offense for the Ravens didn’t look great early, but it did show flashes at times. Much like the Chiefs struggled without Kelce, not having Mark Andrews is an important caveat. But rookie Zay Flowers (9-78, 2-9 rushing) was the bright spot, racking up 10 targets at an aDOT of just 2.8 — plus earning two rush attempts — in what reminded of the vaunted “Deebo role.” That’s a ton of manufactured touches, and he was efficient with them, which is great to see for Flowers’ value, especially in PPR leagues. Beyond him, Odell Beckham (2-37) ran a ton of routes but didn’t earn much volume, though he did draw a couple DPIs. Rashod Bateman’s (3-35) routes were much more limited, but his TPRR was much stronger than Beckham’s, and with Flowers operated so close to the line of scrimmage, there would see to be room for Bateman downfield. If I’ve already made the Deebo comp, Bateman could theoretically become the Aiyuk. The issue, of course, is that Beckham was essentially that in this game, running routes on 97% of dropbacks with Bateman down at 55%. Ideally we’ll see that shift, and it was good to see Bateman at an 18% TPRR and catching all three of his targets while in that limited role. Isaiah Likely (1-4) was unfortunately a pretty huge dud despite the 74% route rate with Andrews out.
Lamar Jackson had just two designed runs and six carries overall; he averaged more than seven designed runs per game last year, and for his career averages more than 10 carries per game, so that’s something to monitor.
I thought C.J. Stroud looked a little skittish in the pocket at times, and there was one memorable play where he threw late back toward the field side and almost got his guy killed/threw an interception, and yet they let the youngster go a little bit, as he racked up 44 pass attempts in his first career start, and got up to 242 passing yards. That’s good to see! I mean, they didn’t score a touchdown offensively and probably won’t be great, but they sat at a +1.2% PROE (Baltimore was at +0.1%, by the way), which we sometimes don’t see with a rookie QB in a game where they are struggling, where the team might call a few too many runs and pack it in a little bit. But they were willing to push — their expected pass rate was actually very high, fourth-highest on the week at 73.8%, and the still went to the positive on that, even as Stroud took five sacks and made some mistakes. We’ll see if they stick to that if Stroud starts racking up more and more hits — or perhaps multi-interception games — but for now, this looks like a Texans’ offense willing to try some things.
Nico Collins (6-80) and Robert Woods (6-57) both hit double-digit targets to lead the way, and Collins’ 11 targets and 158 air yards (14.4 aDOT) was very exciting to see. Collins’ air yards were third most in Week 1, through Sunday, behind only Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. If this passing game does look interesting, Collins looks like the guy.
Dalton Schultz (2-4) led the team in routes, but earned just four targets. His 94% route rate is still a positive sign. Noah Brown (3-20) ran more routes than Tank Dell (3-34), who was more rotational at 48% routes, but certainly has room to grow there. John Metchie was a Week 1 inactive.
The Texans’ backfield splits were extremely surprising, in part due to their aggressiveness in the second half. Dameon Pierce (11-38, 2-9) wound up with just a 42% snap share, and for the most part he and Devin Singletary (7-15, no targets) did what I suggested late in the preseason might be possible, despite the overall preseason usage, which was play full drives and rotate some. As it played out, Pierce got all the RB touches on the first two drives, then Singletary did on the third drive, then Pierce did again on the fourth, then Singletary led off the fifth — which started just inside the two-minute warning — before giving way to Mike Boone (3-18 receiving, no rushes) in the two-minute offense. In the second half, it was similar, with Pierce dominating the first two drives, then Singletary the third, then Pierce the fourth and fifth before Boone seemed to take over for the final two drives, which were 100% called pass plays over 14 snaps. Boone caught all three of his passes on the final drive of the game, and ultimately his 37% route rate is not a particularly notable stat, but he did play in the two-minute drill of the first half and per PFF on a high number of third downs. It’s not a great situation for Pierce, or Singletary as the handcuff for that matter, but Singletary’s 19% snap share is really only indicative of the drives he was in on being shorter drives, and then the game getting out of hand late with a number of Boone passing snaps.
Signal: Zay Flowers — 90% routes, 10 targets, 2.8-yard aDOT, plus two rushes (basically played a “Deebo role” with a ton of manufactured touches, and was efficient with those opportunities); Odell Beckham — 97% routes, but struggled to earn volume; Texans — positive PROE in a trail script with a high expected pass rate (great sign they have a shot to be interesting on offense this year); Justice Hill — played ahead of Gus Edwards before Dobbins injury, Hill is priority pickup; Nico Collins — 11 targets, 158 air yards, 0.78 WOPR (very exciting to see); Tank Dell — decent usage at 48% routes, room to grow later in the season; Dameon Pierce — a little squeezed by Singletary on some early-down work/drives, Boone on some routes
Noise: Rashod Bateman — 55% routes (earned more volume per-route than Beckham, hard to know if this was his real role or was him being eased in after missing time in August); Dalton Schultz — 4 targets, 2 catches (the 94% route rate was bullish for a TE, while the 8% TPRR is probably not going to stick that low); Mike Boone — 37% routes (did play 10 third downs and in some first-half two-minute offense, but also played a lot in the blowout late, while Devin Singletary was the primary No. 2 RB earlier in the game)
Browns 24, Bengals 3
Key Stat: Bengals — 82 pass yards, 142 total yards, 6 first downs
The Browns absolutely rolled in this one, though we know Joe Burrow missed the entire preseason and Browns had a defensive line advantage in a game where weather also played a role (Burrow eventually went to a glove on his throwing hand). Deshaun Watson was struggling as a passer as well, missing a wide-open Marquise Goodwin on what should have been an early long TD on a cleverly-designed play (Nick Chubb direct snap handoff to Watson). But Watson was able to add some as a rusher, going for 45 yards and a TD on the ground on 5 rushes. Also, in my notes I have, “Every time I looked at this game Nick Chubb was running free,” and Chubb’s 127 total yards certainly brought more to a bad-weather game than what the Bengals’ backs were able to accomplish.
Chubb’s (18-106, 4-21) usage was a major note, as his 5 HVTs were a figure he hit just twice all last season. As this game got out of hand, backup Jerome Ford (15-36) got 11 fourth-quarter carries, while Chubb got just two carries in the final period and had 20 touches through the first three quarters. That said, the Browns didn’t pass a ton in the final quarter, and after watching Chubb get four catches in the first half of this game and seeing all of Ford’s rushing work came late, I was surprised to see the two backs split the routes 50/50, and were both at a 34% route share. This is a really tricky one — I wrote in my notes “All this Chubb receiving is a real problem,” because as I’ve talked about every time I’ve discussed Chubb this August, if he suddenly catches a bunch of balls, he has such strong rushing efficiency and production locked up that you’re talking about an obviously elite fantasy RB. But the actual usage doesn’t actually reflect a major routes bump, and it’s instead that Chubb was targeted on a full 33% of his routes. Weekly TPRR is pretty high-variance, but Chubb’s full-season rate last year was 15%. It’s also important to note that I don’t really believe RBs earn their own TPRRs the way WRs and TEs do — with a few notable exceptions — because they are typically either called on screens or receiving checkdowns. Honestly, this routes data has me of the mind the Browns wanted to get Chubb some more receptions early in Week 1, but might not actually stick to it. The routes themselves do seem to suggest they still don’t see him as an every-down workhorse and are more committed to his rushing role. He’ll still be good if that’s the case, but his ceiling is not nearly as high if his routes are in this 34% range.
Ford, for his role, is a strong handcuff given no other RB played in this one. His 15 carries are a bit noisy if you’re thinking standalone value, but he should be rostered. Pierre Strong only played on special teams here in Week 1.
Elijah Moore (3-43, plus two rushes for 19) posted an 80% route rate and earned targets on 25% of his routes, at a solid 9.1-yard aDOT, which fits with what I projected for him this offseason where he’d be more involved underneath (like he was in college) compared to his time in New York where his aDOTs were 12.6 and 12.4. All of that is very good stuff for him as he looks to bounce back from a sophomore slump last year with the Jets. Amari Cooper (3-37) missed some snaps but matched Moore’s seven targets to lead the team. Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-12) ran a bunch of routes but only earned two targets. David Njoku (2-24) had a down game but his (nice) 69% route rate wasn’t a major concern.
I don’t really have anything on the Bengals. They stunk, obviously, but I’m not buying any of it. Tee Higgins failed to catch any of his 8 targets, but his 151 air yards were fourth most among all players in Week 1, through Sunday. Ja’Marr Chase (5-39) had a handful of catches on his 9. Both of those two played every snap, and were the clear top two targets in a passing game that then saw Tyler Boyd (2-10) and Irv Smith (3-17) split the remaining targets, all of which was expected.
Joe Mixon (13-56, 3-17) played a lot, and ran a route on 47% of dropbacks, which was a good sign. Trayveon Williams (2-7, no targets) was the No. 2, even in the passing game, running routes on 26% of dropbacks to just 9% for Chris Evans. Williams is a strong waiver candidate as the presumptive No. 2 for a strong offense.
Signal: Elijah Moore — 80% routes, 25% TPRR at a good-to-see 9.1-yard aDOT, plus two rush attempts; Trayveon Williams — 26% routes, looked like clear No. 2 for Cincinnati (strong waiver candidate)
Noise: Nick Chubb — 4 receptions (out on a limb a bit here, but only 34% routes, and a 33% TPRR for a RB, suggests they wanted to get him some early designed receptions, but aren’t really committed to a full workhorse role and instead continued to prioritize his rushing work); Jerome Ford — 15 carries (11 came in fourth quarter of blowout, clearly played behind Chubb but was only other RB to play an offensive snap and did run some routes, so another good handcuff); Bengals — 54 plays, 142 total yards, 82 pass yards; Tee Higgins — zero catches (8 targets, 151 air yards were very positive signs)
Jaguars 31, Colts 21
Key Stat: Colts — 69 plays, 39 pass attempts, +0.7% PROE
This was a fun game, featuring two teams with good coaches who were putting their players in good situations. There are a lot of things I saw in this game that I was worried I’ve missed on heading into the season.
The Jaguars were more or less as expected — concentrated to their 11 personnel groupings, although Christian Kirk (1-9) got booted in two-WR sets, which wound up being pretty important as Zay Jones (5-55-1) was the clearly more involved No. 2, and made a fantastic play on the ball on his touchdown (the kind of thing that makes it tough for Kirk to get those routes back). Evan Engram (5-49) also had a much higher route rate than Kirk. Of course, Calvin Ridley (8-101-1) was the star, showing legit No. 1 ability after the long layoff. There’s not much to say about a 32% TPRR, 0.80 WOPR, and all the production to go with it. The Ridley optimists look like they nailed this one, and good for them, because as I’ve mentioned all offseason, this is a dude to root for.
On the ground, Travis Etienne (18-77-1, 5-27) dominated the backfield, but did cede two green zone touches to Tank Bigsby (7-13-1, no receptions). On the first one, Bigsby stayed up as a scrum developed, and he got sort of pushed forward down to the 1-yard line in the kind of way where it’s not clear if he did anything, but it definitely makes you write, “physical run down to the 1” in your notes. He punched in a TD on the next play, and those were the only two RB green zone touches for the Jaguars in this one, while Etienne was forced to do it the difficult way with a 26-yard TD. That’s a legit concern for Etienne’s ceiling, but a 79% snap share and a ridiculous 83% route rate are very positive signs.
The Colts were outright fun! Anthony Richardson ran 10 times for 40 yards and a score, and while he had some struggles with accuracy at times, he threw 37 times and was able to rack up 223 yards and a TD threw the air for a strong day overall. Shane Steichen was aggressive on fourth down in a couple spots. While we saw some of the Richardson passing concerns, this was his first career start, and his ability to do a little bit of both things is really bullish for his fantasy scoring potential. The Colts are also not likely to be seriously competing this year, and the way Richardson played isn’t likely to get him benched in a developmental season. Three of his carries came in the green zone, which was more than the RB group combined, though he did take a shot on one of those late and have to leave the game. That usage felt a lot like how Steichen did things with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. However, I will note that he completed just 3-of-10 passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield, and he also completed just 2-of-4 passes to the left side of the field, which is the kind of thing that gets found out very quickly (it was an old Mitch Trubisky issue, where he could only throw reliably to his arm side). Here are his Passing Zones from NFL’s Next Gen Stats:
Michael Pittman racked up 11 targets at an aDOT of just 6.6, which helped keep the volume coming. His 8-97-1 final line was very nice, helped by a 39-yard TD which was mostly yards after the catch. There’s a little bit of concern about that aDOT — he had a low 5.8 YPT on his other 10 targets, and no Colt who saw more than two targets in this one had a YPT better than 6.5, which is obviously on Richardson some and is the concern I’m alluding to — but Pittman could be the clear No. 1 and could be productive if this type of volume is there. Beyond Pittman, there wasn’t much to get excited about, with Alec Pierce running downfield wind sprints and seeing just 3 targets on 87% routes, and Josh Downs seeing 7 on 77% routes, but at a 2.9-yard aDOT (and he was still only able to bring in three of them, which, again, some accuracy concerns). Kylen Granson had a nice day with four catches for 39 yards on six targets and a 72% route share, but all of that is just “nice” and not “great” and in this offense, I don’t really feel the need to chase it.
Deon Jackson (13-14, 5-14) was the clear lead back, but at least in part because Evan Hull left with a knee injury in the third quarter, and Jackson gained just 28 yards on 18 touches and lost two fumbles. I’m not even sure how that’s possible. He had a whopping 7 HVTs, tied for fourth most on the week, and I guess he’s worth an add in some formats just because of how thin they are, but one takeaway is the Colts very clearly could have used Jonathan Taylor in this one, another is they might have gone away from Jackson if Hull — their most likely alternative — hadn’t gotten hurt, and a third is they also have Zack Moss as a potential returner. Jackson probably isn’t going to hold onto this sized role for very long, but it was a nice overall role if you’re super desperate already and just want to chase that and hope.
Signal: Calvin Ridley — 32% TPRR, 0.80 WOPR, strong efficiency; Christian Kirk — off the field in two-WR sets, routes down to 66% (should be better than this most weeks, but it’s a real problem); Jaguars — concentrated skill position usage (again); Travis Etienne — 83% routes, 79% snaps (but did cede both green zone touches to Tank Bigsby); Anthony Richardson — benefited from tempo, rushed 10 times including three in the green zone, certainly didn’t play bad enough to be a benching risk anytime soon; Michael Pittman — strong game in terms of 24% TPRR and 0.63 WOPR, although low aDOT is a minor concern going forward
Noise: Deon Jackson — 67% snap share, 18 touches (not gonna keep that kind of usage when you gain just 28 yards and lose two fumbles, and he might not have hit these rates if Evan Hull didn’t get hurt in-game, while Zack Moss might be able to return next week)