As you can probably tell from the time Part 1 got out to you last night, the Monday after Week 1 is always a long day. There is always a ton of remembering the processes, and just how to go through the analysis, and what to look at, and what matters. You never want to just let the numbers tell you things that aren’t actually there, but obviously the data does really help shine light on what happened.
Some of the advanced data I see that I do wish I had a better feel for — and more importantly, more access to — includes the different route types guys are running, how different guys perform with certain players on and off the field on a per-snap basis, and what different formational and situational usage tells us.
At the same time, while I do think there are small edges there, a decent amount of the weight put on those things is already captured by the more foundational stats. For all the times I’ve seen shiny under-the-hood stats used to argue favorably or against someone the baseline stats might have a different opinion on, I’d probably say the analysis proved to be unhelpful about as often as it was helpful. That’s included some stuff already this year that I thought was super well-argued, and I’m not going to call anyone out, but I mean the result in the case I’m thinking of was quite literally the exact opposite of the well-argued, more niche trend. I’m often left feeling like I should have just kept it simpler than I did, though when those hit, it does feel like you had some secret knowledge no one else did. There’s that survivorship bias of putting more weight on the stuff that hit and forgetting the similar stuff that was way off.
Anyway, just getting my boring stats together for Week 1 is always a challenge. Every year is a slightly different process, and it’s tricky because by the end of the day of writing a Stealing Signals article, I’m always pretty spent mentally, i.e. I just more or less can’t think anymore. But Week 1 requires sometimes a few hours of mental focus in the morning to work through data issues, and just remember formatting and how to set up the article and those things, and then it’s like midday and I have 10 games to write about. I take really diligent notes all day Sunday, but that also means there are a million things I wrote to myself I wanted to dig into in the actual piece, and I sometimes look at those notes and am like, “I don’t know how I’m going to do that particular analytical breakdown right now in a way that hits the right notes.”
But on top of all that, I also need to be doing actual analysis of the Week 1 data, ya know? Like I need to be making sure I’m checking the usage stuff, and digging into the box scores to find the context so I can confidently declare the stuff Signal that I think is Signal and Noise that I think is Noise. I need to be looking at the team-level data, and understanding where the PROE and pace stuff was in every game, and then trying to think through whether I think that was Game 1 stuff or matchup-related, or was the key that’s going to unlock the 2025 season sitting in front of me.
I just love it so much. I mean, I really do. It’s this massive mix of anxiety and stress and uncertainty, and it’s such a challenge, and I just keeping pushing and trying to stay as locked in as I can, because I remember years where I did let my guard down at 9 p.m. on the last game and regretted the way I wrote that one offense up in Week 1. Last night, I was eating dinner with three games to go, and I thought for a second about doing something I don’t think I’ve ever done before and cutting the Part 1 short, because of how the morning was a little longer with the data stuff and the introductions.
I was thinking I could push the final two early games into Part 2, tell you guys this is just a Week 1 thing but I couldn’t get through 10 games on Monday, and no one would care. And I was fine with that in theory, and I knew you guys would be fine with it. But in practice, I wanted to write the last two games. I mean, my brain was fried, and the stress release of realizing I didn’t actually have to get through every single game last night and everyone would be fine with it and it’s not some massive life or death thing — that felt good, but it also just refocused me and I wanted to go do what I’d planned and get through Part 1 as structured.
Anyway, that’s sort of what the experience is like on my end. After all these years, there’s a huge pressure to deliver something profound, because really all you can do when people have high expectations is fail to meet them. How do you keep getting better? How do you iterate and improve the processes? And great absolutely becomes the enemy of good, and there’s all this concern, and then impostor syndrome creeps in, and I see the sharp notes from other analysts and there’s an inferiority complex that my work is not on their level.
But I don’t actually believe that. I’m totally at peace with better analysts doing what I do better than me, but when I do think about it, I feel confident in my unique frame of reference and ability to break things down, and the value I can provide. I’m way more concerned about the perception of my work, which is obviously a very different thing.
Anyway, Week 1 is such a fun week. But my god, I can’t wait until next Sunday. I can’t wait until next Monday, and writing Part 1 next week. I haven’t even written Part 2 today! I think I get so overwhelmed by the massiveness of this project every week, and expectations — mostly my own, and then probably just perceived external ones — that I don’t do a good enough job of just sitting down and being like, “Man, this is just so fun.” I love this shit, and it’s been fun to be a little more present in that right now, fighting through my own psychology to really and truly understand that even if I didn’t have a single subscriber and no one knew who I was, I’d want to be digging into all the data and convincing myself why my specific interpretation is the only right and correct one.
I’ve been asked a bunch today about whether I’d bid on Harold Fannin if I already have a good TE, and I can’t do a ton of waiver content, but the short answer is first of all that you always bid on the really good players no matter what — I put an aggressive bid on him in the STACKED league despite having two other TEs, including Brock Bowers (I lost by $1) — but the other part of the answer is I don’t just want to give the team with a guy like George Kittle a ready-made replacement for a onesie like that. If they bid aggressively, fine. But with Kittle heading to IR, my advantage as a Bowers owner is only increased if they can’t just plug in Fannin, you know?
Now, we obviously can’t stash every single player, but the framework is pretty simple: Who would you draft first if you were drafting right now? There’s the endowment effect where we have a cognitive bias toward the bird in hand, and overvalue the player that is on our roster, but that’s not real. There’s always a risk that a player you drop goes on to be good later, and you didn’t get them back, but you can’t let that keep you from not making moves when the available player is someone you’d prioritize if you were drafting and had one spot and they were both available right now.
You can also beat yourself up for every player you didn’t draft in the draft that went on to be productive, but that’s not fair. None of us can see the future. But Fannin looks like a legit low-end TE1 with potentially upside beyond that, and that’s worth more than a lot of the back-of-the-roster guys right now. I’m not saying you add him at all costs, if you play in a really shallow league where your only cuts are legitimately strong plays in their own right, but in most cases you do jam Fannin onto your roster and figure it out later, is how to think about it.
Let’s talk about the RB rushing efficiency. Ted Nguyen is a certified ball knower, and I’ve referenced his findings before. He piggybacked off a video from Josh Norris with these notes that I referenced deep in the game-by-game breakdown yesterday.
If you don’t want to click through, it’s not a super complicated concept to understand. I don’t play a ton of the football video games anymore, but I was a huge NCAA Football guy starting about 20 years ago, and this feature was in video games 20 years ago. I’d slide my defensive line toward the strength of the formation basically every play.
That’s not exactly what this is, and I harped yesterday on how things aren’t exactly cyclical. The point of what some defensive lines are doing now is to specifically mess up the blocking assignments. It’s about timing. But also, in Josh’s video, the 49ers didn’t do it every time the stopped the Seahawks’ rushing attack. This isn’t an every-down thing.
I’m sure there’s more. Broadly, the trend does seem to be noticeable. It’s basically, “Defenses are still focused on taking away explosives, but they aren’t going to just give up rushing efficiency anymore.” I talked a lot last year about how defenses were playing guys with more of a pass defense lean, and when you get lighter and get 11 guys out there and maybe four or five of them aren’t very good run stoppers, you wind up with some real issues if the offense blocks up your good run defenders.
But it probably shouldn’t have been a big surprise that defenses wouldn’t be satisfied with that. Run defense, and “fitting” rushing lanes, is often talked about as being about effort. You have to have a willingness to get in there and take on a blocker. There’s not really a reason defenses can’t keep evolving to find better pass defenders that will also commit to stopping the run.
Or maybe it’s a formational thing. We’re seeing more and more multi-TE and bigger sets these days, but maybe that’s tipping run too much, and defenses are making the necessary substitutions on those plays. Then you have to be able to hit them with pass concepts out of those formations, obviously. We did see a lot of TEs making key plays in Week 1, and maybe that’s related.
I don’t know all the Xs and Os. I always say for as much as I talk about it, it’s not actually my specialty. I’m an outsider on that stuff who does understand the general push and pull of the sport but mostly just loves to speculate.
But there was a clear, undeniable trend here. There were 14 RBs who had more than 15 carries in Week 1, and only Breece Hall, Derrick Henry, and Travis Etienne averaged even 4.0 yards per carry. That’s nuts. A 4.0 YPC is pretty weak.
If we go down further, there were 18 more RBs who had somewhere in the range of 10-to-15 carries, and only four of them were over 4.0 yards per carry. That makes 25 of the 32 RBs who had 10+ carries in Week 1 finishing below a 4.0 YPC. Nuts.
I don’t really have much more to say about it right now. It’s one of those things that we’ll monitor and I’ll try to find good explanations over the coming weeks. Maybe it’ll prove to be a total nothingburger that only impacted Week 1. But it certainly feels like a significant thing.
And I guess one thing I’ll say is it was fascinating that it came at the same time as we had Jahmyr Gibbs with 10 receptions, Christian McCaffrey with 9, Dylan Sampson with 8, and TreVeyon Henderson and Bijan Robinson with 6 each. I talked about the “Rise of the TRAP back” and the declining RB receptions this offseason a couple of ways, but Week 1 was a sharp rebuke of those trends. We got rushing inefficiency and lots of RB receptions. I feel good about the pass-catching backs in that landscape, no doubt.
Let’s get to the rest of Part 2. One minor correction from a visual yesterday — the Saints-Cardinals game shows zero missed tackles forced for all RBs, but that game wasn’t charted yet and it’s not accurate. In fact, PFF gave out a ton of MTFs in that game, with James Conner getting 4, Trey Benson getting 3 on just 9 touches, Alvin Kamara getting 3, and Kendre Miller also getting 3 on just 5 touches. Fun notes for both Benson and Miller, though the vets in front of them didn’t look bad themselves.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Jay (FFCoder on Twitter), but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, and the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Part 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Broncos 20, Titans 12
Key Stat: Elic Ayomanor — 82% routes, 7 targets, 133 air yards, 0.81 wTPRR, 0.71 WOPR
Denver and Bo Nix really struggled in this game, keeping it a lot closer than it had any right to be. Nix had an early interception and lost fumble that led to a slow start, then had a quick second-half interception, and then when Denver had eventually gone ahead 13-12, a fumbled punt return set Tennessee up well on yet another turnover. For the game, Denver out-gained Tennessee 317 to 133, as the Broncos’ defense definitely clamped down on the Titans in Cam Ward’s debut on the road, including holding Tennessee to 62 net passing yards (in part because Ward took 6 sacks for a total loss of 50 yards). Nix really struggled, and was late on a lot of throws, but he also really struggled early last season before settling in. It was nice to see Denver at a +5.9% PROE, being aggressive. I’m not overly concerned.
J.K. Dobbins (16-63-1, 2-2-5) got the start for the Broncos, and led the backfield with 52% snaps and 30% routes. He looked fine throughout — not world-beating, but good. The TD run from 19 yards in the fourth quarter showed a little bit of burst in tight spaces, but it was his only real highlight, and without it, it looked like he was headed for a rough day. After Dobbins, Tyler Badie (6-2-16) entered on an early third down, and was in for the two-minute drill. Badie didn’t get a carry all game, so this isn’t some massive rebuke of RJ Harvey (6-70, 1-1-(-1)), but it does complicate the routes situation some, as Badie was out there for 26% routes, and basically took a third of them with Dobbins at 30% and Harvey at 28%. And then Payton seemed to want to get Badie involved as a pass-catcher, almost in that Darren Sproles type role we wanted to see for Harvey, as he got 6 targets while Dobbins and Harvey combined for 3. Now, a couple reasons not to panic on Harvey. First, Harvey did come in for a carry in the first quarter, and he matched Dobbins with 4 first-half touches apiece. Dobbins actually pulled away in the second half, which is fascinating because all 6 of Badie’s targets also came in the first half. So in the second half, Dobbins had 14 touches, Harvey had 3, and Badie had none. And yet, that’s when Harvey made his mark, exploding for a 50-yard run with 9:22 remaining in the fourth quarter to take Denver from their own 20 down to the Titans’ 30, when they were really struggling to put Tennessee away. Three plays later, Dobbins found his space for the touchdown run, but Harvey’s big play was the key moment for the offense in a way that can’t be lost on Payton. Well, if it’s going to be lost on a coach, Payton would be that coach. But I do think we’ll only see more Harvey going forward, because he’s a dynamic playmaker that’s going to be difficult to keep off the field. Meanwhile, if you have Dobbins, you’re certainly pleased with where he’s at, and then the complete lack of rushing for Badie probably has him as uninteresting, but the receiving is enough to make him something of a deep league handcuff option, in the sense that an injury to either of the other two backs probably would make Badie pretty playable in a good offense. No other RB played a snap in this game, and Badie is pretty well situated as the RB3.
Behind Courtland Sutton (9-6-61-1), who was the clear WR1 as expected, we did get the rotational stuff from Denver. Evan Engram (4-3-21) injured his calf and went to the medical tent on two separate occasions, so it isn’t clear how much he might have played had that not occurred. Rookie Pat Bryant played just four snaps, and one thought on him was he might be basically a handcuff for Sutton, which is what this looked like. The competing thought would have been that he’d have some routes and be part of the rotation, and maybe he works into that, but four snaps is quite low. Devaughn Vele was an older rookie last year but he played 34 Week 1 snaps and saw 8 targets right out of the gate, albeit on a very different roster.
With Vele now in New Orleans, you’d think these realities would open up the possibility of Troy Franklin (6-4-44) or Marvin Mims (4-3-12) really getting up there in routes. Mims was at 63%, which was solidly better than last year’s season high of 48%, but we also saw that the per-route stuff isn’t going to be the same running real routes versus being mostly in for designed touches and deep shots. That was the second concern about Mims’ profile, and I’d say that after one week, we got mixed results on both fronts, but neither thing (routes volume or per-route production) was answered positively enough for me to think he’s worth clinging to in shallower leagues. He also was the culprit on the punt return fumble, which isn’t a positive in his favor. As for Franklin, he ran fewer routes, but was still up near his 2024 season high of 61%, and he looked good, consistently getting open and earning volume downfield. The 23% TPRR for Franklin compared to a 15% for Mims was noticeable, even though I did put in my notes that Mims had his moments and I’m not trying to act like he sucked. But again, I’m not sure either of these guys would have even gotten to the routes totals they did if Engram stayed healthy, because he splits out a lot and was going to factor into the WR routes for sure. It’s just really tough to consistently get there from a 60ish% routes role, but I’d be most inclined to bet on Franklin at this point.
There wasn’t much on Tennessee’s side. Calvin Ridley (8-4-27) had the big No. 1 routes, but had some tough drops in a tough matchup. I don’t know what the expectations could have been for Ward on the road in this environment Week 1, but I didn’t feel like he was aggressively bad or anything. Brian Callahan tried to hide him a little bit with a -3.6% PROE, and the Titans only ran 55 plays, 6 of which were sacks Ward took.
Elic Ayomanor (7-2-13) was one of the stars of Week 1, without showing it in the box score. Much was made about a 21-yard catch he elevated for on the sideline, where his elbow came down inbounds, but Callahan didn’t challenge. After the game, Callahan openly and clearly admitted he didn’t know the rule, saying one elbow did not equal two feet, then repeating that a foot would have needed to come down in addition to the elbow to make that a legal catch, when in actuality an elbow constitutes being down inbounds. That was wild; I feel like in this era of replays and parsing these kinds of things, everyone who vaguely watches football knows that rule, not just football-obsessed types. Legit shocking an NFL coach didn’t know that, and you wonder if he just misspoke, but you watch the quote back and he says it multiple times, in multiple ways. Since there was no way to walk that back, he did outright say Monday, “My interpretation of the rule was wrong. I’ll own it.” Anyway, Ayomanor did have a tough drop at another point, but his 82% routes were massive, Tyler Lockett (1-0-0) and other WRs were complete nonfactors, and Ayomanor looks like the very clear No. 2 as a guy who racked up over 100 air yards and showed plenty of ability to get open, and also probably convert some production in better matchups. He’s a top pickup.
Chig Okonkwo (4-3-19) was another later TE who had a strong Week 1, which as I mentioned yesterday was a theme. His 79% routes represented a strong figure, and he factors into what appears to be a big three in the passing game. Gunnar Helm (2-1-16) did see a pair of looks on limited routes, and the rookie’s playing time will be something to watch, but Okonkwo joined Ridley and Ayomanor as the only players with more than 2 targets, and he had the routes to back up that as a positive note.
Tony Pollard (18-60, 1-1-29) got a ton of work, as expected with Julius Chestnut (2-2) as his only backup. Pollard got loose for a big play in the passing game, and his 89% snap share and 56% routes were awesome to see. He handled 19 of 21 RB touches as the clear workhorse, and is another Titan we should expect more from in better matchups, starting next week.
Signal: J.K. Dobbins — 52% snaps, 30% routes, 18 touches, strong lead role in committee but in an offense with plenty of Team HVT; Tyler Badie — 26% routes, 6 targets (didn’t get any rushes, and the Signal isn’t the specific usage as much as what it means for handcuff value, because he’s well-situated as the RB3 with receiving upside in a valuable offense); Troy Franklin — 60% routes, 23% TPRR, looked good, but still routes-limited; Elic Ayomanor — 82% routes, 7 targets, 133 air yards, 0.81 wTPRR, 0.71 WOPR (huge early usage for the rookie who is a top waiver wire add, and he should have had more yardage); Tony Pollard — 89% snaps, 56% routes, 19 of 21 RB touches; Chig Okonkwo — 79% routes (very solid number for the late-round TE in an offense that has ancillary targets available)
Noise: Bo Nix — he looked like trash, but I’m calling it Week 1 jitters after he looked similarly bad early last season then settled in; RJ Harvey — 7 touches (rookie in his first game situation, but got work early, and the 50-yard run late broke the game open when the team needed a spark, so I expect this to trend up pretty quickly); Marvin Mims — 63% routes (15 percentage points over last year’s season high, but still not quite high enough to get very excited, especially because the production wasn’t significant in a role where he was running more downfield routes); Evan Engram — 40% routes (battled calf injury and left early); Calvin Ridley — 27 yards (8 targets, tough matchup, and drops aren’t sticky)
49ers 17, Seahawks 13
Key Stat: Christian McCaffrey — 75% snaps, 64% routes, 31 touches, 12 HVTs (most in Week 1), 4 green zone touches (tied most in Week 1)
Both of these teams tried to win this game by running the ball and playing defense. Neither’s offense looked very strong, particularly in the pass games. The 49ers had to win it late, but out-gained Seattle 384 to 230, so they probably should have had more. We got a pretty boring box score overall, with just a few deviations from expectation on usage.
George Kittle (4-4-25-1) looked great early, and caught a quick touchdown, but exited with an injury that has unfortunately sent him to IR. Way to at least get the managers some points, George; if you’re going to be without a guy, it’s always nice if the injury doesn’t also cost you in that specific week. Jauan Jennings (5-2-16) also got banged up, though his injury doesn’t sound as serious.
Everything seems to be conspiring for Ricky Pearsall (7-4-108) to smash, and he probably will. He had a nice day here, although two of his catches came very early, with Kittle still on the field. He then also hit for a huge 45-yard play late, and the playmaking is clear, but I do feel like the quiet stretch through the whole middle of the game, with no catches in the second or third quarter, also says something. I mean, you compare it to the guy on the other team who was the clear No. 1, and that guy looked inevitable. There was a late target toward Pearsall that went for an interception, as Brock Purdy tried to force him something with few other options. People are really, really high on the opportunity in front of Pearsall, and I’d probably come out and say I just don’t think he’s good enough to live up to those expectations on a longer term. He’s probably not a trade away candidate right now; you want him for Week 2, I’d guess. But if I had him and got a huge deal where I could get into a WR I had more confidence in from a long-view talent perspective, I probably would cash in on what I’d see as overvaluing short-term production and hype.
Christian McCaffrey (22-69, 10-9-73) is part of why I’d be OK doing that. The calf scare was pretty hilarious in hindsight, as he came out and got 31 touches. The 10 targets and 9 receptions were massive, and his 12 HVTs led Week 1. His 4 green zone touches also tied for most in Week 1. With this usage, and the injuries around him, he looks like the overall top player in fantasy, plain and simple.
I thought Brian Robinson (9-33, 2-1-4) got nice RB2 usage for a guy who joined the team only recently, but also that he just didn’t look very good.
Ken Walker (10-20, 3-3-4) got the start in this game, but played behind Zach Charbonnet (12-47-1) overall, and the latter did find more room. The positive spin for Walker is he missed a bunch of camp time and Charbonnet was playing well all August, so it’s not surprising things might lean this way in Week 1. The touch split was way narrower than the snaps split, and in fact Walker got more touches overall despite being on the 40 side of a 60/40, which does suggest intent to get the ball in Walker’s hands when he’s on the field, particularly in the pass game where he got 3 targets on 9 routes, while Charbs got none on 11. But all that interpretation ignores Charbonnet, and he’s not playing himself out of a job. He had 2 MTF, while Walker had none, and his RYOE was much better in a situation where the Seattle rushing game did not look good at all, but Charbonnet showed his high-floor style as a downhill runner. Walker by comparison had -21 RYOE, and one-game RYOE data isn’t going to decide much here, but this is clearly going to be a split. Charbonnet notably got 3 of 4 green zone touches, which is a real issue for Walker’s value.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s (13-9-124) team share data all seems fake, as Sam Darnold only threw for 150 yards, and JSN got 124 of them. He was the very clear No. 1 WR, and while some took that to be a negative for the pass game overall, JSN did not look like a guy who is going to be limited by a bad pass game. He’s the name I referenced above when talking about Pearsall — this was a WR who looked inevitable. Dude had a 62% TPRR! At an aDOT of 13.7! Are you kidding? He had a 1.74 wTPRR and 1.46 WOPR. And he was efficient on all that volume, hitting for chunk gain after chunk gain. Entering just his age-23 season, JSN looks like a more athletic Keenan Allen. He’s going to be Darnold’s best friend, and was likely the answer to the big question about which WR to target in the third round this year.
Now, part of the reason JSN dominated so much is Seattle tried to win by not throwing, with a -15.5% PROE. San Francisco was at least reasonable at a -4.0%, but Seattle slowed the game way down, and ultimately ran just 49 plays and threw just 23 passes. Because of that, Cooper Kupp (3-2-15) saw just 3 looks on 92% routes, and looks washed. Tory Horton wasn’t targeted but was out there for 71% routes, which is favorable. The TEs don’t look fantasy relevant.
Signal: Christian McCaffrey — 75% snaps, 64% routes, 31 touches, 12 HVTs, 4 green zone touches (looks like the overall top player in fantasy with this usage, and the injuries around him); Ricky Pearsall — 82% routes, 136 air yards, 0.66 WOPR (lots of available opportunity); Brian Robinson — 25% snaps, 10 touches (solid RB2 usage, but wasn’t efficient); Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 62% TPRR at an aDOT of 13.7 for a 1.46 WOPR, and then 9.5 YPT on that (these specific numbers are obscene and unsustainable, but JSN’s form was one of the biggest Week 1 storylines); Kenneth Walker — started, 3 targets on 9 routes, got 13 touches despite only 40% snaps (he’s in a committee that’s going to make it tough to return value at his ADP, but there are positive notes about how they view him here); Zach Charbonnet — 58% snaps, 3 of 4 green zone touches; Seahawks — (-15.5%) PROE, 49 plays, 23 pass attempts (clear intent to slow things way down and Establish It)
Noise: Jauan Jennings — 59% routes, 2 catches (hurt his shoulder, but not considered serious); Tory Horton — no targets (71% routes was a nice debut for the rookie, and he’ll be one to watch)
Packers 27, Lions 13
Key Stat: Jahmyr Gibbs — 65% snaps, 61% routes, 11 HVTs (second most in Week 1), 4 MTF
The Packers’ defense was the story of this game. They shut down the Lions, took everything away, and also allowed the Packers’ offense to be pretty boring, which is a real risk going forward. Green Bay hosts Jayden Daniels and the Commanders Thursday, and I’m fascinated by that game, with no idea what to expect. But with the Commanders being on a short week on the road, it’s very possible Green Bay looks great again defensively. If that happens, I think we’ll have a real trend here. On the other hand, Daniels is good enough that he might just overcome it, which would also maybe argue the defense isn’t that great, and maybe the Lions’ offense is the problem. Detroit had only 6 points until the final drive of this game, scoring their lone TD with the game well decided at 27-6. There was obviously concern about Detroit losing Ben Johnson, and Frank Ragnow retiring, and all that, but we also know Jared Goff has bad outdoor splits, and it was Week 1, and then there’s the question of how much was the Packers’ defense. Lot of interacting things here, obviously.
Green Bay ran just 46 offensive plays, and threw just 22 times, despite a neutral PROE of -0.5%. Some of the lack of play volume was their own efficiency, including a 2-play, 65-yard TD drive in the second quarter. But they only had 266 total yards, so that wasn’t the whole story. Jordan Love looked very good, but totaled just 188 and 2.
Josh Jacobs (19-66-1, 1-1-4) got 20 of 23 RB touches, and his 85% snaps and 70% routes were massive, but I think probably influenced by the low overall play volume. Both Chris Brooks (1-1, 1-1-2) and Emanuel Wilson (1-4) played briefly, and in a game with more overall snaps might have taken higher shares.
The receiver rotation was fascinating. Love’s first 8 completions went to eight different players, and then when you factor in that he only totaled 16 completions on 22 attempts, you’re talking about a not very fantasy friendly situation. Romeo Doubs (4-2-68) led in routes like he tends to, but at 70% was lower than he typically sat in 2024. Matthew Golden (2-2-16) was probably a bit lower than expected, but 57% isn’t a bad number for a rookie in his first game, and we’d expect that to tick up. Dontayvion Wicks (2-2-30) stayed very involved at 39%.
And then there’s Jayden Reed (5-3-45-1), who is really tough to talk about. First of all, the foot issue obviously limited him, and while his season low in routes was 50% last year, he was below 60% just twice, and averaged about 70% (and remember, that was considered too low for some people). He was at 52% here, so clearly limited. And yet, he ran the vertical routes people pretended don’t exist in his profile when talking about him as a low-aDOT, manufactured-touch slot guy, and he looked great doing it, earning a 42% TPRR at a 14.0 aDOT for a 1.18 wTPRR. And then he was efficient on that, including with the touchdown grab. But also, the foot issue, right? What’s weird is they also had him returning punts despite the foot thing, and lower route volume. Maybe he’s healthier than literally everyone thinks? We’d need to see more routes, still. With the low pass volume, injury, and the spread nature of the routes, he’s tough to trust.
Tucker Kraft (4-2-16-1) is the other key guy, and he looked awesome on his touchdown catch, but then you look down the box score and see he had just 16 yards at the end of the game and realize it’s tough out there for a TE in a low-volume offense with a lot of WR mouths to feed. Kraft’s 65% routes were up there near the team leaders, and he’s yet another talented dude who could have his moments if there’s enough volume. My worry is this is going to be too unconcentrated and a bunch of dudes cannibalizing each other.
By contrast, the Lions were very concentrated. Jameson Williams (5-4-23) ran a route on every dropback, Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-4-45) was at 98%, and Sam LaPorta (9-6-79) was one of the more exciting TE notes of Week 1 with 91% routes and a team lead in downfield targets and receiving yards. The production lagged here, but they had just 261 total yards in Green Bay last year, and it was their only game below 345 other than a 52-14 win over Tennessee where they just got an absurd number of short fields and wound up with just 225 yards despite the 50-burger (which is one of those reminders how weird some football games can be). It was a problem that they couldn’t run the ball here, but that was an issue around the league, and Detroit still boasts an incredible group of skill position talent, plus they won’t have to deal with Micah Parsons every week. Despite struggling to find points, they did have four drives of at least nine plays, and three that went 13+. I’m excited to see Detroit in the dome next week.
Jahmyr Gibbs (9-19, 10-10-31) went over 60% snaps just twice in games David Montgomery (11-25, 4-4-18) played in the regular season last year, but he was at 65% here. Even including games Montgomery missed, Gibbs went over this 61% routes number just once last year. The usage was very strong, and while Gibbs couldn’t find any room, he still looked dynamic, forcing four missed tackles. With Goff struggling to get the ball downfield, he threw to Gibbs a whopping 10 times, indicating clear intent to have the ball in his hands as much as possible. As for Montgomery, his usage was fine, too, and he’s not someone you can’t play or anything.
The late TD was an absurd one-handed catch by Isaac TeSlaa (1-1-13-1), but that was one of just three snaps TeSlaa played. He did contribute on special teams. Very fascinated to see where his usage goes, but for now he doesn’t look like a guy who is even in the offense’s plans.
Signal: Packers — unconcentrated route distribution with no one over 70%, several mouths to feed; Jayden Reed — looked efficient and healthy, but clearly limited at just 52% routes; Matthew Golden — not terrible usage for a rookie’s first game, but should be on benches until we see more than the 57% routes; Jahmyr Gibbs — 65% snaps, 61% routes, 11 HVTs (usage near the top of his range from 2024, strong intent to get him the ball in space in the pass game); Sam LaPorta — 91% routes, team-high 0.52 WOPR (strong usage for a TE)
Noise: Packers — 46 plays, 22 pass attempts (some concern their defense is too good and it makes them boring this year, but this was extreme low volume); Lions — 246 total yards (had just 261 in Green Bay last year, and it was their second lowest of the year, but I’m not buying this is indicative of major issues); Isaac TeSlaa — late ridiculous one-handed TD (played just three snaps)
Rams 14, Texans 9
Key Stat: Puka Nacua — 50% TPRR, 1.21 wTPRR, 0.85 WOPR
My biggest takeaway early was the Texans’ defense is just back to their vicious hits. Had a huge one on Davante Adams (8-4-51) early, then almost knocked Puka Nacua (11-10-130) out of the game, but he passed the concussion check and came back and balled out. They did this last year, and it’s clear they see it as a toughness thing, but in a more aggressive way than the other 31 teams. After the Trevor Lawrence concussion, DeMeco Ryans stood up there and was defiant and unapologetic, and blamed QBs for not sliding early enough and all that. They think it’s their job to police the softness out of the game, and I get that part of it, but we know the long-term effects on the human beings all too well, and the other 31 teams don’t think it’s Bountygate all over again. There’s good, tough football all over the place, like Jalen Ramsey squaring up Garrett Wilson on fourth down to clinch that win, or the Cardinals playing physical to the ball on Juwan Johnson in the end zone at the end of their win in New Orleans, where Johnson was defenseless but no one tried to give him a brain injury that will reduce his lifespan, while also not playing soft. But the Texans take their chances to use their helmets as weapons and take their penalties, like they got on the Nacua hit. I just hate it for fantasy football. The reality of injuries is already so rough in football. And they are going to put targets on their own backs; would it surprise anyone if a Jaguars’ defender headhunts C.J. Stroud this year? You can call me soft in the comments all you want, but I want to like the Texans because I’m a big Stroud fan, and I do like a lot of defenses who play good, hard, physical defense. And yet to me, watching the Texans, I often get a sick feeling. Shit sucks.
Nacua dominated the pass volume when out there, but he did miss time, which explains the 69% routes. Adams was solid working off Nacua, with a very positive 28% TPRR and 0.62 WOPR. Right after Puka went out, Jordan Whittington had a long catch-and-run that was negated by a hold. He later got a carry in the green zone. Nacua didn’t stay out long, but it confirmed for me that Whittington is a handcuff WR. Tutu Atwell (1-1-4) had the No. 3 WR role, but isn’t likely to see his role expand beyond his 59% routes here.
Kyren Williams (18-66-1, 2-1-3) dominated the backfield, and Blake Corum (1-2, 1-1-14) was the No. 2 with Jarquez Hunter inactive. This was basically business as usual, and Kyren got the short TD, but also didn’t get much receiving, which is one of the major concerns of his profile (along with the fact that he’s not an efficient enough rusher to not get the receiving). His 81% snaps and 53% routes were great, but a TRAP back who lacks efficiency is not my cup of tea.
The Texans didn’t look great offensively, but I’ve seen basically no one give Nick Chubb (13-60, 1-0-0) his flowers, and that’s extremely wrong. This is a bad offensive line against a good defensive line and Chubb tied for the Week 1 high with 5 MTF and had a +11 RYOE while posting a 4.6 YPC to become one of just seven of 32 RBs leaguewide who had 10+ carries and over 4.0 YPC. Nick Chubb was one of the most effective rushers in the NFL in Week 1, in the year of our lord 2025, and I mean he didn’t catch any passes and he’s even more of a TRAP back than Kyren because he only ran 24% routes, but the difference in the production between these two lead backs was basically that Kyren’s team got down there for him to punch one in. That’s usage Chubb is going to get for Houston when those opportunities arise, but Kyren was worth a third-round pick and Chubb was a double-digit pick we aren’t even going to compliment when he looks good? I’ve been so confused about Nick Chubb all offseason. I’m not even into this kind of touch mix for a back at all, but I have him on a few rosters now, and I absolutely think he’s going to post productive if low ceiling weeks.
Dare Ogunbowale (2-9, 2-2-17) was the main secondary back as the pass down guy, but had a tough fumble late. Both Dameon Pierce (3-5, 1-0-0) and Woody Marks (3-3) played exactly seven snaps, and while Marks seems a little buried right now, that Ogunbowale fumble could theoretically open some stuff up. Even with the four RBs active and the Texans wanting to get them all into the game, Chubb played 49% snaps, which is quite a lot for a guy who never was a 70%+ type due to a lack of pass-down usage (he’s always been similar to Derrick Henry in that way). In fact, Chubb broke a 70% snap share just one time after 2019, his second season (he went over 70% nine times in his first two years). And while he had a ton of games in the 60s, he also had a lot in the 40s, and many where he still got 20 carries. Last year, he was below 40% in six of eight games. This whole thing is a total tangent, but his average snap share in 86 games in his career is actually right about where he played here in Week 1, at 50.8%, and while that’s dragged down a bit by his rookie year, he’s been below 30% just nine times in his whole career, so it’s not like the bottom games do a ton of work there. So anyway, Nick Chubb basically played close to the same role he did in his prime, and while he probably lacks the same breakaway ability and is in a worse rushing offense, he actually looked pretty decent. (It’s still not a great fantasy scoring profile as a TRAP back.)
The passing game was rough for the Texans. Stroud didn’t look comfortable pushing the ball; I wanted to see a lot more. Houston finished with a -6.4% PROE, and threw just 27 times because the game was close. The totaled just 172 air yards, as one of the scared offenses of the week. Nico Collins (5-3-25) was obviously held back, and the TEs dominated targets, with Dalton Schultz (5-3-28) splitting with Cade Stover (4-4-22). Frustratingly, Xavier Hutchinson (2-2-30) ran the second-most routes on the team, with rookies Jayden Higgins (3-2-32) and Jaylin Noel (2-1-7) down at 32% apiece. Higgins earned a 27% TPRR and made a nice catch in traffic for a 23-yard gain that was Stroud’s long of the day; he’s not a cut as someone who we should expect to gain routes as the season progresses.
Signal: Puka Nacua — 50% TPRR, 1.21 wTPRR, 0.85 WOPR; Davante Adams — very nice No. 2 usage with 28% TPRR, 0.62 WOPR (production should follow); Jordan Whittington — long catch-and-run negated by hold right after Nacua left, green zone carry (handcuff WR); Nick Chubb — 49% snaps, 5 MTF, +11 RYOE, looked solid to the eye, not complete dust (but still not a great fantasy scoring profile as a TRAP back)
Noise: Nico Collins — 25 yards (Texans had just 172 air yards and a -6.4% PROE, but will need to air it out a bit more going forward); Jayden Higgins — 32% routes (27% TPRR, nice play on a 23-yard gain, will start to earn more routes as time goes along, potentially as soon as this week)
Bills 41, Ravens 40
Key Stat: Bills — 74 plays, 46 pass attempts, 400 air yards (all most in Week 1), +0.7% PROE
What a fun, competitive game. I wish I had the stamina to give this game what it deserves, but I’m honestly running on fumes at this point. (Everything below these final couple games is already done, and once I finish the final two games, I hit send.) But anyway, we got so much great stuff from two teams in midseason form. Derrick Henry is just so, so good, and Zay Flowers looked incredible, and the quarterbacks are just aliens.
There was such a stark difference between the way this game shot out, and we got that massive box score, and what we saw in so many other box scores around the league. And I’m afraid, especially on Buffalo’s side, it’s inflated. Buffalo led Week 1 or tied for the Week 1 lead in plays, pass attempts, and air yards, despite a very neutral PROE, and mostly because of that classic element of chasing points the whole second half and getting the stops you needed, right when you needed them, or else in one case giving up a quick, long TD run to Henry. The Ravens scored 21 points in the second half and had three drives of longer than 65 yards but did not have a second-half drive that went for more that four plays. They had a fourth touchdown drive in the first half that went for more than 65 yards that was only four plays as well, and then Henry had the fumble late, and all of these things just kept pushing Buffalo into more and more play volume in a way that probably no other team will do all year, because games like this are just so rare (it’s what makes them so fun!). After the Ravens’ two drives in the first quarter, they had nine more drives and not a single one took more than 2:19 off the game clock. Usually that means the team isn’t moving the ball at all, so then the other team winds up running clock in the second half, but Baltimore accomplished the combo of not using any clock at all, but also scoring a ton of points. And what we got on the other side was a juiced up box score.
OK, with that settled, we can still be optimistic about stuff we did see. Keon Coleman (11-8-112-1) is where I want to start, because he felt like a real No. 1 in this game, running routes on 86% of dropbacks and staying consistently involved. To me, Khalil Shakir (9-6-64) looked like he did not quite have that same burst, which was maybe confirmation bias knowing he had the high-ankle thing, but man that guy is normally so quick. He played really well, but he just looked like he’d aged or something, which obviously he’s not old. He was out there for 80% of routes and running a lot of downfield stuff, but the other thing is he didn’t get as much of his swing pass stuff. He had to go run the routes downfield and earn the volume, and he did a decent job, but that’s probably not ideal that he may not have as much gimme work. And then Josh Palmer (9-5-61) had a nice day as well, racking up a lot of volume despite just 69% routes. Palmer’s the one that felt the most to me like a guy just getting brought along by the atmosphere, though he had the highest TPRR at 26%. Coleman and Shakir weren’t far off. Ultimately, WOPR is a good stat here, because it tells us about how the pie was split and doesn’t worry about the size of the pie. Coleman at 0.57, Palmer at 0.48, and Shakir at 0.43 is not ideal if you do buy my note that the 46 pass attempts are not usually going to be there. I also think there was probably a bit of a matchup thing with the WRs, because the TEs really did very little over the course of this game. Ultimately, I’m probably not buying any of these performances as being particularly sticky on a weekly basis. But the guy whose stuff felt like it could be most valuable over the course of the year was Coleman.
Dalton Kincaid (4-4-48-1) actually scored as well as anyone at the TE position this week, tying Brock Bowers for the most half-PPR points with 12.8. He’s a sell if you can get that done, as the usage looks much worse than a lot of other options. Kincaid ran just 55% routes, splitting with Dawson Knox (2-2-20), who was at 33%. Third TE Jackson Hawes (1-1-29) had a big catch in there, as well. Kincaid only had a 14% TPRR even on the really low routes, and did not look like a focal point at all, but got there due to the crazy environment. He also had a fumble that went out of bounds, that probably didn’t do him any favors. I’m sure he’ll have some other good games given he’s in a good offense, but I’d definitely be moving him down my TE ranks even after a TE1 performance, because I’d just prefer a number of other TEs after promising usage in several other spots.
James Cook (13-44-1, 5-5-58) looked awesome, and almost housed a catch-and-run for a long TD but was tackled inside the 5-yard line. His 58% snap share would have been his third highest in any game last year, and his season high was just 61%, but it felt like they were really leaning into him given the situation. That’s bullish for Cook that they think of him so highly that they can’t get him off the field, but Ray Davis (1-2, 1-1-(-1)) will likely get more work in other matchups. And yet, Ty Johnson (2-24, 2-0-0) is going to play his role (which at one point included a swing pass that looked a lot like Shakir’s usage last year), and this game was a reminder that Davis isn’t that great of a handcuff. If you have him on your roster, which I do in some spots, you don’t probably want to cut him outright. There’s definitely still upside. But yeah, he’s a tricky one.
Josh Allen also benefited from the massive play volume, and Lamar Jackson did not on his side — he got hurt a touch by the Ravens leading, and running late, and the fumble but also the long Henry TDs, etc. — and that’s really the difference in their scoring here. Both guys can obviously score so many fantasy points in all the right ways, but the Bills trailed and the Ravens led so Allen went superhuman and was the much bigger Week 1 smash. I’d still bet on Lamar over the full season.
Derrick Henry (18-169-2, 1-1-13) was absolutely not one of the backs who had poor rushing efficiency in Week 1. He’s just a monster, and he looked amazing. I should’ve been on him more, plain and simple. I’ve talked for years about how unique he is, and appreciated him even as I’ve rarely been in on him in fantasy, but we’re looking at a landscape where RBs might struggle to score points and this dude is a unicorn.
I was pretty surprised by Keaton Mitchell being made inactive, but John Harbaugh answered a question about him and seemed to lack any real imagination for how Mitchell could be utilized, talking about him as an extremely limited player. And I get he’s small, and I do understand they like Justice Hill (2-(-14), 2-1-3) a ton, but we’ll just see how all this plays out. They used him in the first preseason game, and he looked amazing, and then they put him on ice the rest of the preseason. It just seems so odd they landed on this outcome, and then Harbaugh talked about it the way he did, almost sounding frustrated. You can count me as someone who will be surprised if we don’t see Mitchell being used as an effective playmaker at some point in his career, given how important explosive players now are to the current meta, but maybe that will require changing teams and have to come down the road. I still think he’s a fine handcuff with upside, but for now he’s not someone you need to hold, either.
Zay Flowers (9-7-143-1, 2-8) was excellent, and looked like the clear No. 1 with a 96% route share, 1.03 WOPR, 43% TPRR, and 1.08 wTPRR. We saw the whole bag, too — the downfield separation, but also the ball-in-hand ability, both around the line of scrimmage and in space down the field. He’s a stud, and while he probably can’t have a 47% target share every week, the Ravens will throw more than 19 times most games, too.
The 19 pass attempts was the big story for the ancillary guys. DeAndre Hopkins (2-2-35-1) only ran routes on 50% of dropbacks, but had a sick TD grab. Rashod Bateman (4-2-10) is going to have his moments, but this was one of the quiet games. Mark Andrews (1-1-5) was the biggest disappointment, running just 64% routes despite Isaiah Likely being out. Andres may just be flat cuttable already if you’re in a shallow league and can bid on guys like Fannin. At the same time, I’m sure Andrews will have some production in games where the Ravens throw more.
Signal: Keon Coleman — 132 air yards, team-high 0.57 WOPR (had a strong game, albeit in an elevated pass environment); Bills — unconcentrated WOPRs in the passing game; Zay Flowers — 96% routes, 47% target share, 43% TPRR, 1.08 wTPRR, 1.03 WOPR, great ball-in-hand ability, stud; Derrick Henry — superhuman efficiency, 19 of 22 RB touches; Mark Andrews — only 64% routes with Isaiah Likely out
Noise: Bills — 74 plays, 46 pass attempts, 400 air yards (got pushed by Ravens, but won’t be in huge trail scripts like this often); Josh Palmer — 9 targets, 115 air yards (just 69% routes, brought along by the big pass environment); Dalton Kincaid — 12.8 half-PPR points to tie as TE1 on the week (just 55% routes, 14% TPRR, sell high); James Cook — 58% snaps (not some huge sell point, but this would’ve been near his peak last year, and it did seem like the Bills leaned into him more because of the game environment); Ravens — 19 pass attempts (victims of their own efficiency a little bit in this one)
Vikings 27, Bears 24
Key Stat: Vikings — (-7.1%) PROE, 20 pass attempts
There were obviously some big legacy notes here, with Bears fans feeling like the start of the Ben Johnson era is just the same old stuff, and Vikings fans feeling like a comeback divisional road win was exactly what they hoped to see for the start of J.J. McCarthy’s time under center. Ultimately, there was plenty of punting on both sides here, which I think does speak to good defenses, but also speaks to offenses that need seasoning.
I thought McCarthy mostly played fine. He attempted just 12 passes through the first three quarters, and clearly needed to settle in some, but we saw some stuff late. The pick-six was rough, and he wasn’t able to push the ball downfield enough early, but the Bears have a strong defense and we’re talking about a road environment for his first start, without Jordan Addison. Addison’s return will eventually help Justin Jefferson (7-4-44-1), and I don’t foresee Jefferson down all year or anything. T.J. Hockenson (4-3-15) would seem to be a good candidate to get going a little better as an outlet for McCarthy, as well. His 75% routes were strong. I don’t think I’m really buying the Vikings sticking at the -7.1% PROE that was fourth-lowest in Week 1. I thought that was more a product of the game situation, and Kevin O’Connell having the training wheels on early a little bit, but he wants to push the ball, and he started to let McCarthy go as soon as the kid showed he could handle it. In the end, the Vikings threw just 20 pass attempts, as they ran just 49 plays total. But the fourth quarter included plenty of efficiency as part of the low play volume, and the Vikings will surely want to build off that next week.
Jalen Nailor (3-1-28) ran 92% routes in the Addison role. Adam Thielen (1-0-0) caught a 2-point conversion, and was out there for 67% routes, but got stripped of what should have been a catch on his only target in the flow of play, and didn’t make a big impact. Things were mostly pretty concentrated, which is how I envision it longterm, with Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson as the main trio.
Aaron Jones (8-23, 3-3-44-1) got the start and was a key change-of-pace guy, but played just 47% snaps. He did run far more routes than Jordan Mason (15-68, 1-1-7), 42% to 17%, though Mason dominated the rushing volume. This was mostly as expected, but maybe caught a couple Jones drafters off guard. Jones did hit for a long TD reception late, and it gives a little bit of a sell window if you didn’t realize this was the likely situation. Mason looked great, and I expect him to just be the lead RB in rush attempts, as well as probably the goal-line back. This is a little like Charbonnet-Walker in Seattle, except I probably feel more confident in Mason’s ability to just stay in the lead of the backfield and accumulate more touches than Jones throughout.
Caleb Williams started hot, then got shakier as the game went on, so the discussion around him seemed to be pretty negative. I was impressed overall. This wasn’t a ton better than last year, but he took just two sacks, scrambled well, and had a pretty good day overall. Brian Flores does a ton of trickery on with the Vikings’ defense, but I thought based on August, Williams and Ben Johnson might not be on the same page at all. That clearly wasn’t the case, as far as my expectations. There was room here for growth, too.
D.J. Moore (5-3-68, 3-8) had a nice game, and got secondary carries behind D’Andre Swift (17-53, 5-3-12), who operated as a workhorse with a 79% snap share and 56% routes. Moore’s creative usage was nice to see. Rome Odunze (9-6-37-1) didn’t have a huge statistical game, but found paydirt late. His 27% TPRR and 9 targets were also very nice to see, as he tries to put together a strong Year 2. And then Olamide Zaccheaus (7-4-42) looked smooth, though he ran just 51% routes. Luther Burden (1-1-(-3)) is going to take over that role eventually, but Zaccheaus may not give it up as quickly as we’d like. He earned targets on 32% of routes and showed some wiggle after the catch, looking at times like Caleb’s favorite option.
Cole Kmet (4-1-31) ran 56% routes, and Colston Loveland (2-2-12) was down at 42% in his debut, but like Burden, that was a known risk. You shouldn’t be playing Loveland in Week 2, but he’s an OK hold as we see how this progresses. If you’re in a shallower league, though, you can definitely move on quickly, as well. There are other TEs that are probably more significant to prioritize right now.
Kyle Monangai (1-1-11) was pretty limited as the No. 2, and we didn’t get to see much of him, but he looks like a decent handcuff. But for now, Swift looks like the clear workhorse, and if he holds this job he’ll be productive in this offense.
Signal: Jordan Mason — 57% snaps, 15 LVTs, 1 HVT; Aaron Jones — 47% snaps, 8 LVTs, 3 HVTs; D’Andre Swift — 79% snaps, 56% routes, 17 carries, 5 targets (will be productive as long as he has usage like this); Caleb Williams — game got away from him, but the full body of work was improvement, and he looked good overall in his first action in Ben Johnson’s offense, including scrambling well, not taking many sacks, and showing the potential for better passing upside than we saw in the second half; Rome Odunze — 27% TPRR, 9 targets; D.J. Moore — creative backfield usage, clear intent to get the ball in his hands
Noise: Vikings — 20 pass attempts, -7.1% PROE (young QB’s first start, needed to settle in, but got going later and Kevin O’Connell let him go down the stretch, although obviously game script required it); T.J. Hockenson — 15 yards (didn’t make an impact, but 75% routes were strong, and limited team volume); Luther Burden, Colston Loveland — both rookies should see their roles grow over time, but for now both are not startable
Biggest Signals
Each week, I recap the article in this space. I typically don’t spend a ton of time on it, but I do try to vaguely rank the “Biggest Signals” and “Biggest Noise” in order of relevance/importance, which includes whether it was surprising and size of impact (i.e. loosely asking, “How much did value change?”) But it’s an extremely inexact ranking, and I can’t really explain some of the weird ways I think about it.
That said, in Week 1, the top names are basically a priority list for waivers. Everyone after Christian McCaffrey I’m assuming is already owned, so if someone down there is available, don’t take it as if I don’t like them. Some of the guys above CMC like Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Hollywood Brown are probably owned too, but I just ranked them like they weren’t.
Like always, I kind of just put the team stuff at the bottom and rank that as a different category. This ranking thing is really confusing for me, if you can’t tell. Nothing makes sense.
Harold Fannin — 30% TPRR, 0.68 wTPRR (top waiver add)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt — +39 RYOE (got better as the game went along, finished with a big run late, looked inevitable to become the lead rusher)
Hollywood Brown — huge volume covering for Xavier Worthy in the gameplan
Elic Ayomanor — 82% routes, 7 targets, 133 air yards, 0.81 wTPRR, 0.71 WOPR (huge early usage for the rookie who is a top waiver wire add, and he should have had more yardage)