Stealing Signals, Week 10, Part 2
Biggest Signals and Biggest Noise of Week 10
How and why I write full features all morning before then writing up the game-by-game breakdowns and all that is beyond me. I started doing the intros a few years ago, and they’ve long since taken on a life of their own, and now I basically do two columns in one each week, where I do my weekly topical stuff and then also the game-by-game breakdowns.
This article is so insane. Stealing Signals as a concept is like a mold that just grows and expands and is consuming everything. I can’t possibly keep producing content at this rate for the rest of my life. And yet I can’t possibly stop.
Anyway, check out the post I did this morning, and then let’s also get to the games, because your favorite fantasy analyst can do both. We have five games today, before the Biggest Signals and Biggest Noise, plus the HVT charts. Somehow, two of the five games had the same 44-22 score, which is a real thing even if it seems like I definitely had to have made that up.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Jay (follow Jay on Twitter at FFCoder or check out his Daily Dynasties site), but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, and the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Seahawks 44, Cardinals 22
Key Stat: Seahawks — (-24.5%) PROE, 21.7% actual pass rate (both lowest by any team this season), 12 pass attempts (second fewest this season), 46 rush attempts (most)
For the second straight week, Seattle utterly buried a team early, showing that when you dominate possessions on both sides of the ball, it’s not that hard to just run a team out of the stadium. What was so striking to me was how the Cardinals didn’t even really do much wrong. I mean, Jacoby Brissett did fumble twice, but Seattle got to him quickly both times with seemingly great defensive calls at the right time, and they had multiple guys around to also swarm the recovery, which led to two return touchdowns early, with the second coming in just the first minute of the second quarter, which brought the score to 28-0 at that point already, since the Seahawks had also scored touchdowns on both of their offensive possessions to that point. They’d make it three for their first three possessions when they got the ball back, pushing it to 35-0 in the middle of the second quarter, before Sam Darnold — who had played very well again early, it has to be said — started getting a little loose and somehow he turned the ball over three times all within his own 25-yard line, which set up super short fields for Arizona. But I mean, that didn’t even matter. Arizona vaguely got back in the game for a moment, and Seattle just suffocated them again. I’m convinced this is the best-coached team in the league right now, and that Mike Macdonald is on another level in his understanding of the modern sport. I don’t even know how to articulate it; this team just has all 11 guys on both sides of the ball executing in ways that you don’t just get lucky and run into. It’s scheme, and understanding the finer coaching points about what can’t be compromised and has to be executed, and just having your guys in the best spots to succeed at all times.
Seattle hilariously threw just 12 passes and ran 46 times, both of which would have set new marks for least/most in the NFL this year if not for what the Jets did earlier in the day Week 10, throwing only 11 times. Seattle’s 21.7% actual pass rate is comically low, and was the lowest rate in the season this year, as was their -24.5% PROE. They completed one pass in the entire second half.
Despite that passing environment, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6-5-93-1) had a very strong statline. He had 6 targets in a game with 12 passes, which is obviously a 50% market share. He hit for a long TD right away, in double coverage, because when you pair elite scheme with elite talent it just can’t be stopped. That’s the pinnacle, as I’ve written, when you get both of these things working together as is the case with JSN playing at the highest level imaginable and at the same time being in a system that is elevating talent at the highest level imaginable, too.
To that last point, look around at the rest of this offense. I maintain that for as good as Darnold has been, he’s not actually the best QB in the league like all his advanced metrics suggest, or even really close to it. There’s not much else in the passing game, and when he’s not targeting JSN there’s not a whole lot there. The RBs have been just average. It’s a testament to Klint Kubiak and the whole staff how dominant the Seahawks have been. But I do go back to Macdonald here, too, even as a defensive-minded coach.
Cooper Kupp (2-2-74) found some space for a 67-yard gain, but that only served to emphasize he clearly doesn’t have the movement skills anymore. Rashid Shaheed (1-1-3, 2-20) ran routes on 62% of dropbacks, and also got some RB usage, including a toss from a backfield alignment. That was fun to see to try to get his explosiveness into space. Shaheed should get plenty of usage in this offense, but they didn’t really need to push him here.
Kenneth Walker (14-67, 1-1-3) remained the clear lead back early, but Zach Charbonnet (14-83-1) also got plenty of work, and ran well. Third-string back George Holani (7-31-1) got a rush early and converted for a TD late in the first quarter, from 9 yards out. That was kind of odd, and his other six carries all came in garbage time, over the final two possessions. The big note in the backfield was Charbonnet ran well, and they didn’t push Walker as they led, which does suggest Walker is being viewed as more of the lead since the bye, but Charbonnet might also earn back work if he’s effective.
It wasn’t Brissett’s best game, but this loss wasn’t on him. He got the ball to Trey McBride (13-9-127-1) effectively, and McBride continues to dominate. There’s nothing more I can say about the guy when I was calling him the closest thing to Gronk we’ve seen since prime Gronk dating back to his breakout second season two years ago, but we’re just continuing to see more and more of that.
Marvin Harrison (12-3-33-1) struggled with efficiency, but got several end zone targets for near misses, including a diving try that was poked away when he had his hands on it on what was a great defensive play, and then MHJ did finally break through with a 2-point conversion and also a late TD. McBride and MHJ continue to dominate volume, then Michael Wilson (7-4-34) got a few more looks than usual in the 45-attempt game.
Bam Knight (10-28, 4-1-5) was the lead back and got the bulk of the opportunities, but Emari Demercado (4-64, 4-3-40) got loose for a 55-yard run as well as a 34-yard reception, and he continues to look like the far superior back. Demercado racked up +51 RYOE and did lead the team with 4 HVTs. In one early sequence, Demercado caught an angle route right at the goal line and was very nearly in but ruled short, on third-and-goal. Knight got the fourth-down carry and got stuffed. Later, Demercado got a third-and-goal rush from the 6 that he took down to the 2. I would expect a committee again next week, but Demercado’s the one that’s earning more work, pretty clearly.
Signal: Rashid Shaheed — 62% routes, 2 carries (played a lot for a debut, got some manufactured work, positive signs about how they want to use him but the game got out of hand quickly enough they didn’t need to push it in his first game); Emari Demercado — two more explosive plays, 104 yards on 7 touches (expect him to be the more valuable RB in the near term, as he’s undeniably earning more work)
Noise: Seahawks — (-24.5%) PROE, 21.7% actual pass rate, 12 pass attempts, 46 rush attempts (one of the more ridiculous of these lines all season); George Holani — 7 carries, TD (the touchdown came in the first quarter, but it was his only carry until the final two possessions in garbage time, where he got the other six, so it feels like a one-off); Marvin Harrison — 3 receptions (got 12 targets, tough matchup, some near misses); Bam Knight — 47% snaps, 11 touches (both team highs, but looked like the less efficient back, so I wouldn’t bank on the volume)