Stealing Signals, Week 11, Part 1
The Signal and Noise from TNF and the early Sunday games
No intros this week due to Thanksgiving. On a typical week, I use Thursday as part of my work schedule, but that’s out this week with games starting at 9:30 my time out here on the west coast, and then family stuff planned. And then I have more family stuff scheduled on Friday, plus we have a game on the NFL schedule that day as well (the Jets have benched Zach Wilson and are going to Tim Boyle for that game! Wait, they are going to Tim Boyle? And in Week 12? This is seriously the path?).
I’m also headed to the Apple Cup to watch my undefeated Washington Huskies against their rival, the Washington State Cougars, midday Saturday. So this already condensed week every year is especially busy for me here in 2023, between family and football. That means some extra podcasts and writing Wednesday to cover stuff I’d usually do Thursday, Friday, or Saturday, and thus I’m going to be quicker here on Monday and Tuesday, as well. I will also likely skip Input Volatility this week, unless I can get a version of it written up Wednesday.
Let’s get to the games. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Ravens 34, Bengals 20
Key Stat: Gus Edwards — 4 green zone touches (second most in Week 11, through Sunday)
I want to be quick today, but the first game requires extensive analysis. I can’t really do the whole song and dance with respect to Joe Burrow and Mark Andrews (2-2-23) both being lost for the year in the same game. I mean I can, and the same stuff I’ve written before applies, about how it sucks first and foremost for them as players/people, but that there’s room for it to also suck for us within the confines of this game we play and put energy into, where it’s just not really fair the way injuries impact things. “Fair” is a concept that maybe doesn’t matter, so maybe it’s better to just say it sucks. As always, I’m just hoping everyone stays healthy going forward, because it’s been a tough couple of years for injuries, and especially this year at QB, which is obviously more than an important fantasy position, given how it impacts whole offenses and important players at every other position.
Isaiah Likely (2-0-0) ran routes on 88% of dropbacks and didn’t catch a pass, while Andrews caught a pair on the 12% he ran, if you need a little reminder that Likely isn’t a one-for-one replacement of Andrews. Likely just hasn’t been very good this year, but he also hasn’t run many routes, and on the ones he has, you can understand where he maybe wouldn’t be a focus before now. In other words, it wouldn’t be crazy if his per-route stuff — which has been very poor this year — actually improved as his routes elevated and he was asked to do more things where he might be higher in the progressions sometimes. He’s a solid pickup because of a ceiling that clearly exists for a player with a strong collegiate track record, but the range of outcomes is wide.
Keaton Mitchell (8-33, 1-1-8) was on the field for at least three straight plays on the first drive of the game, and he continues to move toward more playing time. Gus Edwards (12-62-2, 2-2-8) still led the backfield in snaps and got the goal-line work, scoring twice. Justice Hill (1-1, 1-1-6) played sparingly, mostly on passing downs. Mitchell’s role is the changing one, and it’s coming directly from Hill’s work, although Hill isn’t completely leaving the offense, making it difficult for Mitchell to get enough work. It’s still pretty reminiscent of Denver and when Jaleel McLaughlin made his push there, where Gus is Javonte Williams and Hill is Samaje Perine, who never really went away. Ideally in this case, Mitchell’s role stays stronger than McLaughlin’s, which fell backward a little bit.
With Andrews out and Zay Flowers (4-3-43, 1-7) not doing a ton, Odell Beckham (7-4-116) stepped up, and he looked better than we’ve seen in 2023 to my eye. His 159 air yards were tied for third in Week 11, through Sunday. Rashod Bateman (2-1-10-1) was still clearly ahead in routes at 76% to Beckham’s 52%, but Beckham has been better the past couple weeks in a more limited role. Nelson Agholor (1-1-37-1) also caught a silly TD that was deflected by two defenders and ricocheted to him for a catch where he also had a lane to run and go to the house.
Flowers’ quiet day was in part because he lost a long TD on a WR screen on a terrible holding call on OBJ behind the play, which was very simply put just not holding. It would have been a 68-yard score, and would have made Flowers’ whole day.
The big question on Cincinnati’s side is what happens at QB. Jake Browning will get the start, and having watched him for four years at UW, I have to say I’m not enthusiastic about his chances of succeeding at the next level. I talked to some other UW people this week to get their thoughts, and let’s just say it was unanimous that none of us expected him to be an NFL player. He was always kind of smallish in college, and struggled to keep his eyes downfield in the pocket, such that even when he showed some elusiveness, it still just wound up in a sack when he inevitably turned into the third or fourth defender (because he never got his eyes back up downfield to get the ball out). He also never really had the arm strength, though he was a good college QB we all enjoyed watching, and he was able to get the ball out to playmakers during his best collegiate season as a sophomore, when UW went to the College Football Playoff. Tellingly, John Ross went pro after that season, and Browning’s numbers cratered, from 41 pass TDs that 2016 season to 19 and 16 his junior and senior seasons. If you’re looking for optimism, that would argue Browning can’t elevate talent, but perhaps can do enough given he’s working with Ja’Marr Chase (7-2-12-1). It might also be the case that he’s gotten a bit bigger and stronger now that he’s 27 years old, having kicked around as a backup and practice squad guy for a few seasons at the NFL level. He’s an accurate passer who can throw with anticipation, which is a big key, so I don’t think it’s completely hopeless. I just wouldn’t bet on him, as much as I would love him to succeed. One last note — the Bengals also have A.J. McCarron, who they activated off the practice squad to be their new backup, and he’s someone I don’t think highly of from his past NFL experience, but he was apparently pretty great in the XFL this spring (I didn’t watch much, but he finished second in passing yards and first in touchdowns with a 24:6 TD:INT ratio), a 68.8% completion percentage, and a solid 7.3 YPA. He also easily led the league in sacks taken, so there’s that. Anyway, if Browning can’t get it done, maybe McCarron can to some degree. None of it is good for the Bengals’ weapons, though, obviously.
Expect the Bengals to not only lose passing efficiency, but also passing volume, as they fall from a +8.6% PROE to date that has been second in the NFL. That’s a huge problem for everyone not named Chase in the passing game, and the ancillary pieces like Tyler Boyd (6-3-22), Trenton Irwin (5-3-36), and Tanner Hudson (4-4-49) are not to be trusted.
Joe Mixon (16-69, 5-5-31-1) was good in this one against the Ravens, and could be in line for some really high-touch games in the next few weeks.
Signal: Isaiah Likely — strong TE pickup, should be in line for significant role, although range of outcomes is wide; Keaton Mitchell — earning more work at Justice Hill’s expense, but Gus Edwards is still entrenched and Hill isn’t going completely away (Mitchell’s feeling more like Jaleel McLaughlin than De’Von Achane, within his range of outcomes); Joe Mixon — could be in line for some really high-touch games given his big snap share, the QB switch, and Bengals’ PROE to date, which should shift back to more neutral or even run heavy (Mixon’s touches have been held back not by the size of his role, but the Bengals’ pass lean)
Noise: Zay Flowers — quiet game (lost a 68-yard TD on a WR screen to a phantom hold behind the play); Odell Beckham — 159 air yards (has looked much better in a rotational role that’s maybe kept him fresh the past two weeks, but he was at just 52% routes here, so I’m not sure it’s actionable); Bengals — +8.6% PROE to date (second highest in NFL; pass efficiency will come down without Joe Burrow, and volume will, too)
Cowboys 33, Panthers 10
Key Stat: Adam Thielen — 0.87 WOPR (season high; fourth highest in Week 11, through Sunday)
Alright, with Week 11’s most impactful game out of the way, we can move through some of these others a little more quickly. The Cowboys rolled in this one, coming down a bit from their aggressive pass-heavy ways the past few weeks but still settling in at a +3.7% PROE and 41 pass attempts in a big win.
Tony Pollard (12-61-1, 5-4-19) looked great, showing some of that burst we’ve come to know and love. His 21-yard TD rush was an impressive display of finishing at the end as well, and if you’ve acquired him at a discount recently, you have to feel really good about what you saw given what we expect from his workload going forward, which indicates a real ceiling if Pollard can be efficient. In yet another Cowboys’ blowout, Pollard recorded just two fourth-quarter touches while Rico Dowdle (8-23, 2-2-(-3)) totaled seven. Put differently, Pollard had a strong workload through three quarters.
CeeDee Lamb (9-6-38-1) saw plenty of volume but was a bit quieter than usual. The targets were spread behind him, with Jake Ferguson (5-3-32), Michael Gallup (5-3-31), and Jalen Tolbert (5-2-12) all finishing one ahead of Brandin Cooks (4-3-42), and Luke Schoonmaker (2-2-23-1) actually catching Dak Prescott’s other TD.
Adam Thielen (11-8-74) dominated volume on the other side. No one else had more than 2 catches. There’s a lot of talk about Bryce Young right now, especially vis-a-vis C.J. Stroud’s elite production, but setting aside what Stroud is doing, Young is dealing with a supporting cast that we knew to be very poor. He maybe should still be able to transcend that — Stroud is elevating teammates, although we can get into trouble comparing to what Stroud is doing, because it legit might go down as the best rookie QB season of all time. The argument I want to make on Young is similar to what I made on Kenny Pickett late last year, and into this year, which was that I didn’t believe we knew he was bad, though I also wasn’t advocating he was clearly good (this was part of why I liked betting on Pickett late in drafts this year, because the cost more or less assumed he stunk, and unfortunately that was correct). But the reason for that with Pickett was a little more about subjective stuff like luck on some plays last year, whereas for Young it’s interesting in that it’s the situation that we expected to be bad coming in. His WRs are extremely not good. The David Tepper/Frank Reich stuff already seems so volatile that Reich will likely be fired after just one season. This situation sucks, and so when you see stuff that compares Young to some really bad rookie QBs, I would just argue that he probably is an outlier in that group, in that whatever it may tell us — and Year 1 success typically tells us a lot — isn’t probably quite as predictive in this instance. This reminds me a little of Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year under Urban Meyer.
The split between Chuba Hubbard (10-57, 2-2-8) and Miles Sanders (11-50, 1-1-2) moved back closer to 50/50 overall, and Hubbard got back to leading in routes, which we highlighted expecting after Sanders had a big routes bump last week for some odd reason. Hubbard’s 49% snaps here were his lowest since Week 5, and Sanders was in his biggest role since that same Week 5 game. It looks like your standard split backfield going forward.
Signal: Tony Pollard — was efficient, looked more explosive; Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders — back to 50/50, with Hubbard running a few more routes, looks like your standard split backfield going forward
Noise: Rico Dowdle — 7 fourth-quarter touches (blowout, Pollard only got 2, but the gap between them was wider the first three quarters)
Browns 13, Steelers 10
Key Stat: Dorian Thompson-Robinson — 3.4 passing aDOT (lowest in Week 11)
Alright, with yet another long game written up, surely we can move through this snore-fest more quickly. Despite an over/under around 32 or 33, this game easily went under. I just mentioned above, but I’m very much with the masses these days that Kenny Pickett ain’t it. This is an extremely difficult matchup for opposing QBs, but he’s not been good regardless. Dorian Thompson-Robinson on the other side was an extremely low-aDOT game manager for this one, throwing 43 times for just 165 yards at a 3.4-yard aDOT. Both teams posted negative PROEs among the eight lowest of the week.
Jerome Ford (12-31-1, 5-2-8) gave up a little more work to Kareem Hunt (12-36, 3-3-1) this week, though Ford got all the green zone stuff, which probably confirms our earlier theory that Hunt had gotten a lot due to already being on the field on those drives. All three of Ford’s green zone touches came on the same drive, back to back to back, as he moved from the 6 to the 4 to the 1, before punching it in. Hunt’s 45% snaps in this one were a season high, while Ford’s 49% were his lowest rate since playing hurt in Week 8.
David Njoku (15-7-56) feasted on the short targets, while Amari Cooper (8-4-34) and Elijah Moore (7-6-60) were the only other WRs and TEs targeted more than twice.
Najee Harris (12-35, 2-1-1) maintained a nice snaps lead on Jaylen Warren (9-129-1, 3-3-16) who, wait, let’s look at that stat line again: “9-129-1, 3-3-16.” And, what was it for Harris? “12-35, 2-1-1.” Ok, got it. Makes sense. (Just to add a bit of color, Warren was a beast in this one, and this is just a minor note because I’ve been very positive on him since Day 1, but he’s been even a little better than I expected.)
Diontae Johnson (8-2-16) is not offering the returns I’d hoped for over the past couple weeks, and I mean the Steelers had just 77 net passing yards in this one, and were at just 119 last week. It’s not looking good as the move to a more run-heavy approach, which obviously still only produced 10 points. George Pickens (6-4-38) led the team in receiving but was also limited, while Allen Robinson (4-3-20) caught a few passes and Pat Freiermuth (1-1-7) was clearly not 100% yet, running routes on just 42% of dropbacks.
Signal: Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt — a little closer snaps split, was more of a true 50/50 with Hunt at a season-high 45% snaps; Jaylen Warren — some strong, physical runs en route to a massive 129-yard rushing day on just 9 carries (continues to solidify himself as a key piece and maybe argues for being the offense’s focal point)
Noise: Dorian Thompson-Robinson — 3.4-yard passing aDOT (presumably will need to get the ball downfield more); David Njoku — 15 targets (3.7-yard aDOT; would be the first to lose work if DTR pushes ball downfield more); Pat Freiermuth — 42% routes (good to see him back, but was not 100%); Steelers — 196 net passing yards over past two weeks combined
Lions 31, Bears 26
Key Stat: Justin Fields — 14 designed runs (most in a game in his career)