Stealing Signals, Week 11, Part 2
The Biggest Signals and Noise of the week
No intro today. You’ll have to make do with the 5,000-word one yesterday, or the 7,000 words in Part 1. Man, I haven’t checked on the length of these things in a while, but when did they get so long? I’ve been telling people for years the full week was between 8,000 and 10,000 words, which I think is what it used to be. Apparently it’s more like 15,000 weekly these days?
On that note, I usually wake up Wednesday with decreased mental function, especially after several weeks of the year, i.e. around this time. But I woke up today clearly feeling it, which I think was in part due to the long intro yesterday, and also just the past week with the family stuff, and putting off the normal Friday work for Saturday and it’s been quite the stretch. What I mean is I had to go pick something up for my wife this morning and I literally just started off the wrong direction and didn’t realize it. Then I got home and left the thing I went to get in the car. I’m not trying to sound dramatic or anything and I’m just telling you to say that today’s writeup will be impacted by it.
You’re reading a stupider version of me than normal, right now. There’s just no other way to say that. If something feels off in the writeups below, trust your gut, not whatever comes from the hamster wheel spinning in my head that’s powering my fingers as I type this.
Let’s get to the games. You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Broncos 38, Falcons 6
Key Stat: Bo Nix — 28-for-33, 307 yards, 4 TDs, 0 turnovers, 1 sack taken
I had somebody reply to my Input Volatility post and just write “Unsubscribed” late Sunday, so I replied back and asked why since they seemed to really want me to know, but I didn’t hear back. It might have been about the Bluesky intro since a lot of people are weirdly emotional about that, although that seems like a weird response to being annoyed some of my content might move somewhere you wouldn’t be willing to go find it, in that it’s then moving away from other content I do. Based on the timing of it, I’m guessing it had to do with me saying I would (and did in multiple places) start Audric Estime (6-16, 3-3-9) over Javonte Williams (9-59-1, 5-4-28). The funny thing is, I hadn’t even seen this game yet, but I’d also seen some other messages, and I guess I was expecting things to look a lot different than they did and Javonte to have looked good and played a ton, but I was a bit underwhelmed given those expectations. He ran harder — which he seems to do when his job is threatened (I’ve compared it to Rachaad White in recent weeks) — but there was nothing special about his day, and his TD featured one of those rugby scrums where both the defenders and the offensive linemen are pushing from both directions, and often the offensive lineman win over the lighter defensive backs trying to pile in on the other side, except this was maybe the clearest I can remember where the player holding the ball was literally suspended in the air, with both feet dangling above the ground, as he was moved into the end zone. I guess you don’t need a knee to score a touchdown if you don’t actually have your feet on the ground for the final 3 yards of the field.
Getting real for a second, this was a solid run up until the point he got lifted, and Javonte’s day was better and certainly the usage rebounded and it was all positive for his value, which I’d sort of put at zero but clearly isn’t. He played 32 snaps, which was a huge rebound from the 17 last week if still his second fewest of the season. This was the type of day I expected from him if he was playing as the lead back all year, in an offense I expected to be solid, and they were here. But we did get more Audric Estime (6-16, 3-3-9) than most weeks, and he importantly caught three passes, and had a fourth — that went for an 11-yard gain where he hurdled a defender — called back by penalty. Estime both looked better than his stat line shows but worse than I’d hoped. Jaleel McLaughlin (4-19) got a few touches but continues to look like the third back, and then Marvin Mims (2-2-49-1, 3-4) also continued to get work out of the backfield, which is the biggest detriment to all of them right now. Mims caught a wheel play out of the backfield for a long reception, then got his TD on a WR screen, but was also getting some toss plays out of the backfield where they were trying to get him on the edge. The backfield’s a mess. I still think Estime has a shot to take over a bit more, but clearly that hasn’t happened to the degree Week 10 suggested it might have. It was an upside bet based on that week’s trends, including the key late-game usage, and I’d do it again, but instead we got a reversion closer to the status quo and a longer timeline for Estime if indeed he does eventually take the lead role. But he might not. He’s a hold, and if this somehow gave Javonte trade value again and you can move him, you should, but otherwise this backfield kind of sucks.
This game was a blowout, and we got the backup QBs, but it wasn’t really a beatdown. The Broncos finished drives, and got some breaks along the way including a catch/fumble overturn that went in their favor that Mike Pereira called “shocking” on the broadcast, and a couple third-down conversions for TDs that easily could have been field goals. The Falcons didn’t finish drives, as the scoreline indicates, and then were behind and pressing a little just because of the sequencing of the first half, which is to say that the Broncos got the ball first and also had the last real drive of the half, and scored TDs on three of their four possessions before the break, whereas the Falcons had two good drives on their three chances but only got field goals, and suddenly it’s 21-6 at half. Then the Falcons go three-and-out to start the second half, the Broncos score again because Atlanta’s defense is just not getting stops, Kirk Cousins starts to press a little and throws a pick, and the game’s over. I’m not saying the Falcons secretly played some tremendous game, just that it was more about execution and the Broncos getting the little breaks, and it got away from Atlanta a little bit.
Bo Nix was great, and his numbers spiking in a game like this runs in stark contrast to everything I was writing early in the season where his numbers often were misleading and made it look like he played worse than he did. This was the inverse, which is just regression in real time. He almost had a couple costly mistakes, but did play very well, including a couple of really good throws later in this game, when it was pretty well decided. But despite not being necessarily great, everything came together very well in a 300-and-4 day with only five incompletions. Recall there were people after literally Week 2 (and then again after Week 3, and Week 4, etc.) saying this guy was an obvious and irredeemable bust, and so much of it is just variance, but yeah he’s having a good rookie year. I’m not saying he’s a star yet, either, and people want to give him Offensive Rookie of the Year over Jayden Daniels now, because everything has to be an overreaction.
Courtland Sutton (8-7-78) had a nice day, Troy Franklin (2-2-15-1) scored off a WR screen like Mims, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (4-4-52-1) for a late 41-yard score as the Falcons’ defense was kind of just making it easy on the Broncos. Devaughn Vele (5-4-66) also had a solid day, but this is the issue with Sean Payton’s system — Nix throws for literally 300 and 4 and I can’t even tell you who was most impactful because of how spread all this was. Nobody had 80 receiving yards, and the TDs went to four different guys (none of them had more than 52 yards). Payton’s offense should be named, “They won’t see this coming,” which does work sometimes because the sport is all about misdirection, but it’s all so tortured and annoying the way he does it.
As I noted, things fell apart for the Falcons quickly in this one. Bijan Robinson (12-35, 4-4-28) got a ton of early work, but wound up with a quiet day. Tyler Allgeier (0-0, 1-1-(-1)) never even really got going before it was over, and Jase McLellan (8-15) got the late work with the No. 2s.
Drake London (7-3-61) had some early plays, and Ray-Ray McCloud (6-6-46) had a 20-yard catch from Michael Penix, who played 13 of the team’s 55 offensive plays in this one, meaning the starters played in the low 40s. Darnell Mooney (4-2-27) and Kyle Pitts (3-1-9) were both quiet.
Signal: Audric Estime — lost some snaps, but caught 3 passes and had a fourth called back by penalty (he’s a hold); Bijan Robinson — 16 touches to 1 for Tyler Allgeier shows how lopsided the early work tends to be, and then Allgeier just didn’t get any opportunities as this one got out of hand
Noise: Javonte Williams — strong day (snaps still didn’t return to pre-Week 10 levels, the TD included him being lifted off the ground, and it was mostly just positive variance in a good game for the offense); Falcons — 55 plays, and Michael Penix was in for 13 of those (starting offense didn’t get a lot of work in this one)
Seahawks 20, 49ers 17
Key Stat: Christian McCaffrey — 94% snaps, 69% routes, 23 touches, 106 yards
Despite the low score, this was one of the games of the week, with the Seahawks getting stuffed on a fourth-down try with about 4 minutes left, then getting a stop and getting the ball back with about 2-and-a-half, and driving the length of the field for a Geno Smith rushing TD with 12 seconds on the clock, exactly how you draw it up for a stunning divisional upset where you leave your opponent no ability to answer. On that drive, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11-10-110) was absolutely massive, catching four passes, including two third-down conversions. Coming out of the bye and with D.K. Metcalf (9-7-70) back in the fold, the hope (and our expectation) was that he’d get more first-read opportunities than when Metcalf was healthy earlier in the year, and that was the case as he’s continuing to develop into this clear focal point with high-end possession-receiver skills but also the ability to get deep when needed. Metcalf also was good in this one, and while Tyler Lockett (3-2-19) made a couple plays early, this was the hyper-concentrated two-man receiving corps you love to see, with both JSN and Metcalf at 9+ targets and the rest of the offense combining for 11.
In addition to those two WRs, the other key part of the core of this offense is of course Kenneth Walker (14-54-1, 2-2-5), who continued his mini-slump where the huge scores haven’t necessarily been there lately, but ran 63% routes and had both RB green zone touches, so the high-end upside remains very clear here. His rushing efficiency has been down, which for him typically just means it’s been a little while since he’s broken a long run or two. It’s not a major concern given it’s not impacting his role at all. He notched an impressive 8 MTF in this one, as well.
The 49ers apparently have zero concerns with Christian McCaffrey (19-79, 5-4-27), who jumped even higher to 94% snaps, with 69% routes, and got 23 touches after his high-volume debut last week. He ran more efficiently, as well, and has 12 targets and 10 receptions over two games, despite no TDs yet. We’re fully back to the Christian McCaffrey elite ceiling situation, presuming he stays healthy. It’s a ceiling essentially no other player can match, and I’d have to rank him 1.01 right now if drafting for the rest of the year. Honestly, I wouldn’t even hesitate, given how he’s pretty fresh outside the Achilles’ issues, the 49ers are on the playoff bubble and need to push the rest of the regular season, and they’ve already had their bye. The schedule does look a little bit tricky the rest of the way for RB production, but even shifting this guy’s range of outcomes down a little to try to account for that keeps it clear of anyone else’s.
Jauan Jennings (11-10-91-1) is a star for the 49ers, while Deebo Samuel (7-4-22, 1-(-1)) continues to struggle, and caught two of his four passes at the very end of the game after Geno’s rushing TD, in the final 12 seconds, as they tried to set up a lateral play to no avail. There was basically nothing else in the passing game. Ricky Pearsall (2-0-0) saw his routes fall a bit to 51%, and struggled, and the 49ers missed George Kittle. I do not have any explanation for Deebo, by the way, but he’s just not that significant right now.
Signal: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — key part of offense with D.K. Metcalf back, including 4 huge receptions on game-winning drive; Christian McCaffrey — 94% snaps, 69% routes, 12 targets and 10 receptions in two games, rush efficiency was back (full-on elite CMC usage and is the 1.01 right now); Jauan Jennings — 11 targets, several key plays, go-to guy for San Francisco in this one
Noise: Kenneth Walker — recent lack of high-end scoring (63% routes, both RB green zone touches, 8 MTF, usage and upside remain clear despite efficiency lull)