Stealing Signals, Week 11, Part 2
Including Biggest Signals and Biggest Noise of the week
I probably should have done a better job yesterday of emphasizing that I don’t plan to not do the column after Thanksgiving, but actually plan to just free myself from the tedium. I’m still going to write a version of Stealing Signals every Monday and Tuesday. I’m actually pretty excited about it.
I joked that I couldn’t find the tone yesterday, and one of the things that’s true with me is after I send things out, I often then figure out pretty quickly the angle I should have taken. I spent a lot of time working through the intro yesterday, and knew it wasn’t right, but also didn’t have the time or brain power available to fix it. But if I could write it over, I’d just lay it out by offering the reminder of what I wrote preseason that the article would look different after Thanksgiving, and then spinning that as a big positive where I’m really pretty excited about giving myself the freedom to do the article differently down the stretch.
The goal is always to add value. I’ve tried to do that since July, and be clear if and when I am not or cannot. I do very much think the way I break things down in this space every week — the structure of the game-by-game posts, and picking the key stats, and going through and trying to interpret and clean up my notes, all of which is the weekly tedium for me that compounds — is less valuable in the final third of the fantasy season. That’s not just some kind of excuse; I recognize there’s value there, but it’s diminishing returns relative to my energy.
But among the nice notes I got, and I appreciate because they do make me feel super validated and like my work remains appreciated, was a reminder that those of you who like my work most — who I care the most about getting work out to — basically just want me to do what I think is best, because that comes through on the page. I lose sight of that a lot, more than I should. But the reminders that the intros are the best part and those types of things are great.
The intros are definitely not tedious. I wake up Monday or Tuesday mornings and start working on them, and I just go. I love the free rein to just talk about whatever I want. Probably the impending game-by-game work that I’m procrastinating is a huge part of what makes that so freeing, but I mean that’s the good stuff. Sometimes I write for so long about whatever topic it is that I spin it off into its own post, but even when I don’t do that I might find it’s well into the afternoon and I haven’t even begun to transition to the game-by-game stuff. And then I freaking panic because it takes me a half hour or more for each game, basically no exceptions, so if I have eight games to do it’s like, “OK, I have a minimum of four hours to go, if I work efficiently.” I’ve gotten the feedback that the column comes out later, but that’s largely because of the intros. I’ve joked I’m writing two columns every week, one a general interest post about whatever is on my mind, and another very structured game-by-game usage and film notes piece.
Back in the day — say, back to my time at CBS — there were no intros, and I would literally wake up at 3 am to get started on the game-by-game aspect of it so I could have something ready to publish by I think Noon ET, which was 9 am for me out here. And I wouldn’t even be done; it would be like a handful of games and then each new game I finished we’d update the publication.
These days, I’m not nearly as considerate of the eastern time zone, and you guys out there are mostly just reading Part 1 Tuesday morning. Probably I should make the Stealing Signals Introduction it’s own post every Monday morning, and send that, and then send Stealing Signals, Part 1 later in the day on Monday. Why don’t I do that every week? We’ll just decide here and now that’s the 2026 plan. Why wouldn’t it be? It’s two separate pieces of content and I hold the first one back until I’m done with the second, which makes it more of a chore for you to consume when it’s all ready?
Anyway, I’m always thinking about the future, and how to best do this. I’ve done it for years, and I still don’t have the optimal structure down. Or, more practically, it needs to continue to evolve. It can’t just be stagnant and not become tedious, or get passed by. It needs to grow, like we all do.
But what I wish I would’ve emphasized better yesterday is I’m excited about that part of it. There’s optimism, too. I’m excited to see what comes of December, from my content. My expectation is the different ways I’ll approach things, because I’ve freed myself up by basically being self defeatist and trying to run off any subscriber who was on the fence about the value of my work, will actually make it the most valuable December to date. But I didn’t want to say that, because expectations and pressure and weight, especially this time of year when I’m just feeling pretty done writing.
But yeah, I’ll still send stuff, and my past Decembers haven’t been good, so hopefully this will prove to be a much better answer, while also being easier on my end to create. I look forward to it. Until then, we have the normal Part 2 today, and another normal week next week where I will probably have another meltdown in the intro on Monday morning staring at 14 games to write up. At least we’re done with the international series for 2025. That shit starts at 6:30 my time; I’m out here setting alarms to get up for this and then finishing my Stealing Bananas podcast at 11 pm my time usually, and literally working the whole time in between.
That’s the real issue I’ve been having Monday mornings, is the hangover from longer Sundays. In past years, I’ve cut out the Sunday night podcast by like Week 8 or so, but this year I just wanted to keep doing it for whatever reason. Shawn and I have been having a lot of fun with it. But I’ve always been sure not to let other content get in the way of these posts, which are my bread and butter, and I always want to keep the main thing the main thing. It’s of course pushed it back, time-wise, though, and that’s been noticed. I don’t think I’ve cut many corners with the content itself, though.
Anyway, that’s sort of a State of the Union for where I’m at, what I’m thinking about the rest of the regular season, and what I’m looking forward to in 2026. Let’s finish up Week 11.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Jay (follow Jay on Twitter at FFCoder or check out his Daily Dynasties site), but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, and the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
49ers 41, Cardinals 22
Key Stat: Jacoby Brissett — 57 pass attempts (most by any QB this year), 47 completions, 452 yards
This game got sped up from the opening kickoff, which Skyy Moore ran back to the other 1-yard line for a quick Christian McCaffrey (13-81-2, 6-5-40-1) TD, his first of three on the day. The 49ers got the ball back fairly quickly, and George Kittle (6-6-67-2) won on a vertical route for another early score, leading to an immediate 13-0 lead after a missed extra point. That was Kittle’s first of two TDs, as the two San Francisco stars both had multi-TD games. From there, the Cardinals never really got back into the game, as Jacoby Brissett threw a couple of tough interceptions, but they did have a whole lot of time for Brissett to wind up throwing a million times in heavy negative script, with no RBs. This was a pass volume dream for Arizona, whose 57 attempts were most by a team in a game this year. And Brissett completed a whopping 82% of those for 47 completions. This kind of pass volume, and how Michael Wilson (18-15-185) accumulated that hilarious line, is why the “Noise” section exists below.
McCaffrey had the early rushing TD, then caught a 9-yard TD early in the second quarter, and then for reasons that are impossible to explain, was still on the field inside of five minutes left in the game, up 35-16, to score from 4 yards out to complete the hat trick. When you get away with it, it’s fun that he got all that extra work, but my lord that was unnecessarily risky to be playing him at that point. Brian Robinson (8-24, 1-0-0) spelled, as usual.
Kittle was the star of the passing game, while Jauan Jennings (6-4-54) had a solid day, and Ricky Pearsall (3-1-0) was quiet in his return. Pearsall did run 85% routes, so it was good to note he was healthy enough for that.
Wilson looked good, it has to be said. I’m not sure how you couldn’t with 15 receptions. He had an impressive catch early on a deep ball, through contact, and on the game he wound up with 240 air yards total. It was just a massive game, and I’m going to call it Noise, but when you see this much production, you do probably want to be prudent and get a bid in there and just see what happens.
Trey McBride (11-10-115-1) was also a phenom, and Greg Dortch (6-6-66-1) got brought along by all the volume, too. That it was concentrated on top of the huge volume was an obvious plus. Because they trailed by so much, Arizona’s +9.0% PROE wasn’t even tops on the week, but rather third. We’ll talk about the other two teams below.
Bam Knight (5-24-1, 4-4-21) got the start and the early work, including a short TD. Emari Demercado (5-8, 3-2-12) was mixing in as well, but got banged up and left early, which meant Michael Carter (2-6, 7-5-22) wound up leading the team in snaps and running 47% routes in Demercado’s role, presumably. This could have been a really nice PPR game for Demercado, but the injury pulled him out of that role. Knight also played well, and had something like a 60-yard TD that could have been added on top of his other score, that he lost to a holding penalty. Carter was very unimpressive and inefficient again, and is not to be taken seriously.
Signal: Ricky Pearsall — 85% routes (volume should hopefully follow, but looked healthy); Bam Knight — main early-down back early, short-yardage TD, also lost a long TD to a hold (lead RB for now)
Noise: Cardinals — 57 pass attempts (most by any team in a game this year), 82% completion percentage for a ridiculous 47 completions; Michael Wilson — 18 targets, 15 receptions, 240 air yards (crazy pass volume game with 57 attempts, and no Marvin Harrison, but while he can’t do this going forward, there’s no reason not to bid on him and just see what happens); Michael Carter — 47% routes, 5 HVTs (took over Emari Demercado’s pass-down role in the high-volume game, but was still inefficient)
Rams 21, Seahawks 19
Key Stat: Rams — (-1.034) EPA/pass, (-0.355) EPA/run out of 13 personnel (per SumerBrain)
The game of the year was definitely fascinating to watch, but I can’t really pretend to have all the answers. The Rams were definitely doing some three-TE (13 personnel) to run at Seattle early, and running effectively. They were seeming to run out of 13, but throw out of 11, although there wasn’t a lot of passing early as the Seahawks were matching 13 with nickel, as we expected. That did lead to efficient running, and no one on the Rams had multiple catches in the entire first half. But you got a sequence in the middle of the third quarter that was interesting, where the Rams came out throwing out of 11, and after two completions to Puka Nacua (8-7-75, 2-18), they got a first down. They went to 13 and ran, but Seattle got the stop for a 3-yard loss, setting up a second-and-13 and an eventual punt, after Davante Adams (8-1-1-1) couldn’t bring in a third-down throw that was a bit behind and he probably should’ve brought in (having Matthew Stafford makes it possible to convert on obvious pass downs against pass defenses, but obviously the goal of all this is not to live in third-and-13 situations). Anyway, the point did seem to be that Seattle was willing to sacrifice rushing efficiency, and then get their stops where they could once they’d made the Rams into a ground team, and the Rams recognized that and kind of bailed on it despite how effectively they were running, because that’s what happened. They got back into 11 more, and in the fourth quarter Greg Olsen emphasized this switch and how they’d found some success in 11 by saying, “It’s been a great day out of 11 for the Rams.” This was a microcosm of what I think the evolution of these heavy-TE formations is, as I’ve written. Per the final numbers, the Rams didn’t ditch 13 personnel, but they did go away from it in favor of 11 personnel, and the Seahawks also significantly increased their 11 usage. Sam Hoppen has that in this visual: