Stealing Signals, Week 12, Part 2
Analytical narratives, plus the Biggest Signals and Noise of Week 12
I wrote yesterday about not really feeling like I have a ton to offer the rest of the way, for a variety of reasons, but one of the things it got me thinking about was how the feedback I get sometimes suggests you guys know how I’ll respond to certain things before I do. Like, if Arthur Smith does something wild, you guys know where I stand on that. Or if Jaxon Smith-Njigba catches one pass, you’re going to hear about his impending breakout.
And obviously some of that is bias, but this season I’ve kept coming back to this concept I floated a while ago about being in and out of position analytically, where the implication was we’re sort of tying ostensibly separate analyses together because of the stats we look at, or the things we are looking for. Our approach and then the results combined to guide us through a season in a way that is more connected week to week than it readily seems.
One of the ways I’ve contemplated this is the undeniable way this column builds, and similar columns do as well. Anyone writing a piece like this, which talks about each team, each week, is going to have explanations for the things they are seeing, and then is going to be testing those hypotheses and reacting to them. When I pop in on Kerrane’s Walkthrough, or Silva’s Matchups, or Hribar’s Worksheet, I am often struck by how their explanation of something that’s evident in the data — say a specific team performing a specific way over a specific stretch in, I don’t know, the passing game — might be wholly different than mine.
And it cuts both ways — sometimes I find something that I wish I’d seen prior to that point, because it so obviously explains what I’ve been trying to parse, while other times I feel like I’m seeing right through a point that’s being made, because it feels like it was built on a shaky foundation weeks ago and is now a multi-week duct-taped explanation of a trend that was misunderstood from the beginning.
I’m not calling anyone out, and least of all the three GOATs I just named, but that’s the deal. Even if you spend every day, week, and month since OTAs living and breathing every bit of NFL news you can find, you’ll miss some things, or have some things backward. Your own depth of analysis will become a cocoon of sorts, and you’ll find the time and energy you’re spending to be self-fulfilling in the sense that it must be productive, and you must have found answers, because it’s frankly hard to accept that you could expend that amount of energy on something and still be clueless.
And I find that the things I miss, they’re often not just something — eventually I’ll miss things that 80% of the rest of the NFL world knows about, and when I uncover that I’ve missed it, I can’t help but feel like an idiot. Everyone else knows that one thing is because of some offensive line injury — you know, that injury no one was really paying attention to until someone brought it up and it made the groupthink rounds, but just not back to you — and frankly the fact that you didn’t know that kind of disqualifies you from ever having an opinion on anything NFL-related again. Do you even research this stuff? That one was obvious.
And what happens for a lot of people is it’s the analysts that more or less take a wisdom of the crowds approach — they are prodigious consumers of other people’s analysis, and always seem to parrot the groupthink line I just mentioned, because they are the ones who never do miss the latest note, even if there’s actually no value in it, but they have no choice but to go there because they aren’t actually doing research of their own — those are the analysts that people start to trust. They always know what’s up. They never miss anything. Their expertise is evident, even if it’s not expertise at all. They don’t even understand the things they are saying. Their skill is the ability to restate ideas the heard elsewhere.
But for the people researching every day, week, month — these narratives form in their work. Their own little explanations, and you’ll sometimes hear the arguments on pods or see them on Twitter, where they defend those little narratives to the death. And why? Out of fear. A fear of that narrative being wrong. And having to recognize — and maybe admit — they don’t have an explanation for something they think they do. Or worse, think they need to.
I’m not above any of this, but I also will never pretend like I’m not extremely biased in my approach to these writeups. I wrote what I did yesterday because I actually think I’ve been pretty on top of things this year, and I’m not really looking for a ton more answers from this NFL season. It’s going to play out how it’s going to play out, and there will be some variance in what actually hits and who wins all the money. But if you’ve been reading along up until now — and if you intend to keep reading through December, you probably have been — then you could probably recognize how I’m going to respond to whatever events do unfold before I even write them up.
But who knows, maybe I’ll surprise you. Maybe I’ll surprise myself. Let’s get to the games. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Rams 37, Cardinals 14
Key Stat: Kyren Williams — 61% snaps, 62% routes, 8 HVTs
Let’s test out that theory of you being able to guess my take. Kyren Williams (16-143, 6-6-61-2) had a monster game, but as I’ve noted throughout the year, this is an offense that is very friendly to lead RBs, giving them a high rate of green zone work as well as tons of light boxes to run against. I guessed on Stealing Bananas Sunday night that Kyren likely ran against a lot of lighter boxes in this game — as it’s been a staple of McVay offenses going back to Todd Gurley — and then I saw this hilarious tweet Monday, from the awesome Kyle Dvorchak of NBC.
I also saw some conversation about Kyren’s current dynasty value, and I try to stay out of that given I’m pretty bad at dynasty, but this is one I’d kind of love to comment on because he’s just so obviously benefitting from situation, and even (and perhaps especially) as a young RB that’s scoring at a crazy rate, that’s dangerous. I saw references to him being a top-10 dynasty RB, but basically anything that takes him out of this situation is going to crater that value, which look, I’m not trying to say he’s not good, because he’s obviously shown that. But I do think there are very valid reasons to think his success is less about him elevating a situation and more about the inverse. And so if he misses more time this year, his value craters into the offseason. If the Rams add a RB in free agency, his value could crater. If they draft a more dynamic back, his value could crater. There are paths to him staying in this role and being successful over multiple seasons — and if he doesn’t have a lot of competition next year, and Matthew Stafford is still there, I’ll probably buy in again for redraft, because this really is one of those perfect player/situation fits. And he’s a smaller back, who already missed significant time as a lead option, and frankly may find himself in a committee as a result. Again, not saying he’s not good or can’t continue to be, but saying that long-term success at RB typically requires more athleticism and more of the player being able to rise above situation at least a little bit (which of course isn’t really a thing at RB, but there’s nuance to that point). So, did that seem pretty consistent with my past comments about Kyren, and why he’s been successful?
I should note that his usage in this game, at 61% snaps and 62% routes while returning from injury, and the 8 HVTs, is all super bullish for Kyren for the rest of 2023. He had 22 PPR points at half, then broke off a long run early in the second half, and he added efficiency to the really strong role. If for instance you could buy affordably in dynasty where your focus is on this year, and then future production and how that pans out is mostly gravy, that I think makes a ton of sense. He’ll probably be productive again; my main point was ranking him as a top-10 dynasty RB seems to imply we might have a five- or even three-year stud RB on our hands in the fantasy space, and I just don’t really see this year meaning we have that, for this player, in this situation.
I do think Kyren is a great fit for this offense, and between him and Royce Freeman (13-77-1) running well, the Rams leaned into the ground game, winding up with a -2.6% PROE and 33 rush attempts against 33 passes. One notable factor was Cooper Kupp (5-3-18) needing to get his ankle re-taped immediately, like right away in the first quarter, and then playing through that. I’ve seen some stats that Puka Nacua (8-4-27) has been getting more first-read stuff, but for me that’s probably just a reflection of Kupp’s health, which doesn’t seem to be there.
Tyler Higbee (5-5-29-2) found paydirt twice, while Tutu Atwell (3-3-76) might have been injured (didn’t see anything) given his routes fell to 38% and Demarcus Robinson (2-2-13) somewhat surprisingly was up at 62%.
Kyler Murray had a rushing touchdown, but continues to struggle a bit as a passer, with Marquise Brown (12-6-88) and Trey McBride (9-7-60) nonetheless posting decent lines, though a lot of it came in garbage time. Greg Dortch (9-3-27-1) was out there a bunch with Michael Wilson out, and Dortch caught a TD.
Michael Carter (4-19, 4-4-15) got some decent run behind James Conner (6-27, 5-4-5), with Emari Demercado (3-15) working as the No. 3 and the team ultimately cutting Keaontay Ingram this week. Carter was a recent add from the Jets, but appears likely to be Conner’s direct handcuff the rest of the way, given he’s already worked into a 36% snaps role. All four of Carter’s receptions came on the final two drives in garbage time, but that he wound up with more routes overall than Conner — and 4 HVTs to Conner’s 5 — still doesn’t bode well for Conner’s upside.
Signal: Kyren Williams — 61% snaps, 62% routes, 8 HVTs in return (huge usage and huge impact is all very bullish going forward); Michael Carter — definitely James Conner’s backup going forward after 36% snaps, 38% routes, 4 HVTs (all four of Carter’s receptions came in garbage time, but Conner only had 30% routes, 5 HVTs, and his upside still takes a hit)
Noise: Cooper Kupp — 3 catches, 18 yards (had to have his ankle re-taped early in the first quarter, played through it)
Broncos 29, Browns 12
Key Stat: Javonte Williams — 70% snaps, 52% routes (both season highs)
The Broncos handled the Browns, who lost Dorian Thompson-Robinson during this game, and were forced to turn to P.J. Walker. With the Browns struggling on offense, including three turnovers, and the Broncos largely in control, Sean Payton turned to the ground game. They notched a -8.6% PROE, including giving Russell Wilson (11-34-1 rushing) nine designed carries, and racking up 39 total rush attempts against just 22 passes. Predictably, 7 of those passes went to RBs.
Courtland Sutton (6-3-61) and Jerry Jeudy (3-2-11) might as well play for a service academy, with how many opportunities they have to make plays in the passing game. Marvin Mims (3-2-24, 1-11) is just a figment of our imagination. Adam Trautman (1-1-8-1) apparently caught a touchdown, but the Broncos actually ran for two scores in this one.
Javonte Williams (18-65, 6-3-6) didn’t have one of those rushing scores, despite two green zone carries. Samaje Perine (7-55-1, 1-1-11) did punch in a short score, but it came after a long completion to Sutton where Perine stayed on the field and got the carry on the next play, so not necessarily a huge concern for Williams’ role. What was more concerning was after a later 5-yard run from the 7-yard line to the 2 for Williams on a second down, Perine came on for the third down carry late in the third quarter. He was stuffed, losing 3 yards, so to the extent he was getting used as a goal-line back, it didn’t go great. One big note for both, though, was Jaleel McLaughlin (2-4) played just two offensive snaps. I didn’t see any injury notes on him, and his role had been shrinking lately, averaging fewer than 10 snaps per game over the four games prior to this one, but this was a new low. I’ve kind of buried the lede here, but Williams’ 70% snap share was in turn a season high, as were his 52% routes. Perine does seem to specifically cut into his workload, but Williams looks like a clear start going forward in an RB-centric offense, and Perine is a really nice hold and possible streamer as the No. 2 whose role centers on HVTs.
The Browns’ backfield split remains similar, with Jerome Ford (9-65, 7-4-14) as the clear lead, although he’s maintained strong routes throughout, this time at 72%. Kareem Hunt (7-22) has been a green-zone menace, but hasn’t been used much in the passing game this year.
David Njoku (9-6-59) got another spate of targets with DTR under center, but dropped a TD opportunity in the mid-third that he really needed to bring in. Elijah Moore (9-3-44) and Amari Cooper (6-2-16) were inefficient, while Cedric Tillman (5-4-55) had his best game as a pro, but still feels a ways off from a big breakout, in part due to QB concerns. That said, Joe Flacco might be taking over, and that would be big news for the pass volume and completions, as Flacco is notoriously immobile, quick to release, and reasonably accurate — the types of traits that can lead to 40-attempt games where you can approach 30 completions. Flacco also throws to the RBs a good amount and is a noted HVT-friendly QB.
Signal: Javonte Williams — season highs with 70% snaps, 52% routes (Jaleel McLaughlin only played 2 snaps, but Samaje Perine is still taking some crucial HVT work, and Perine is a nice hold)
Noise: Browns passing game — if Joe Flacco takes over, expect a statistical shift with more pass attempts and also a higher completion percentage, likely at a lower aDOT, but where receptions can rise for the main receivers and Jerome Ford
Chiefs 31, Raiders 17
Key Stat: Rashee Rice — 68% routes, 10 targets, 8 receptions, 107 yards (all season highs)
The Chiefs fell behind 14-0 early, but ultimately handled business with the Raiders, finishing the game with a 31-3 run from that point on. With no Kadarius Toney or Jerick McKinnon, there were two big stories, with Rashee Rice (10-8-107-1) being the most fun, as he landed in a season-high 68% routes to lead the team’s WRs, and racked up a ton of volume, albeit on just a 4.3-yard aDOT. We’d like to see some more air yards, but the targets were great, and Rice had a nice play after the catch to score on his 39-yard touchdown which helped put the game away, pushing it to two scores in the fourth quarter. Anytime you see a young player being efficient, and directly aiding in winning football, that’s a positive toward more playing time.
Other than Rice, you had Travis Kelce (7-6-91) had a nice day, and then there wasn’t a lot else. Justin Watson (3-1-3-1) scored, but that was his only catch. Skyy Moore (3-3-34) and Noah Gray (3-3-30) were the only other Chiefs’ WRs or TEs to catch more than one ball.
Isiah Pacheco (15-55-2, 5-5-34) was the other big story, playing 81% of the snaps and running a routes on 68% of dropbacks with McKinnon out. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (3-5) did get a couple chances at the goal line at one point, but then after he got stuffed the team just turned back to Pacheco, who converted. It was a strong showing for the lead back, and his ceiling is clearly elevated with JMK out.
Josh Jacobs (20-110-1, 6-4-15) looked pretty sweet ripping off a 68-yard run early in the second quarter, but there wasn’t a lot else out there for him, other than the 6 targets. Random note, but the handcuff stuff is so key at this stage, and I’ve seen people just assume Zamir White (1-0) is that guy here, but I don’t think that’s likely the case even knowing Ameer Abdullah’s (1-11, 1-1-2) role is mostly on passing downs, when you see that Abdullah is playing 21% of snaps and White is at 3%. White would assuredly play more if Jacobs missed time, but I imagine Abdullah would as well, and we’d have a split with White getting the lower-value stuff. He’s not a recommended stash for me.
Austin Hooper (2-1-14) was down to a season-low routes rate for the second straight week, this time way down to 11%. Michael Mayer (4-2-27) didn’t shoot up or anything — he settled in at 60% — but he could be consolidating more of the work as we enter December. I’m at least hopeful, but it’s tough sledding in an offense where even Davante Adams (7-5-73) can’t consistently produce. Jakobi Meyers (7-6-79-1) did find paydirt for a nice day.
Signal: Rashee Rice — 68% routes, 10 targets, 107 yards (all season highs), but just a 4.3-yard aDOT that’s a minor concern; Isiah Pacheco — 81% snaps, 68% routes, 9 HVTs with Jerick McKinnon out; Michael Mayer — Austin Hooper was down to a season-low 11% routes (Mayer needs more than consolidating TE routes, but this is still helpful)
Noise: Zamir White — not sure he’s a handcuff worth stashing (Abdullah is the passing-downs guy, but at 21% snaps to 3% for White, it feels like a split with White getting low-value stuff if Josh Jacobs misses)