Stealing Signals, Week 13, Part 1
Sequencing, plus Signals and Noise for TNF and early Sunday games
It doesn’t matter how long you’ve played, the sequencing in this game will drive you nuts. If you’re newer and think it might get easier to handle, I’m here to tell you it really doesn’t.
I’m talking about the order things occur in during these small samples that are football seasons. And if you don’t think there’s a ton of randomness that determines that, I’d love to talk about some wonderful investment opportunities on bridges.
This idea was brought back to the forefront by some conversations around Gabe Davis, who had 20-point games every three weeks like clockwork this year, but mostly did nothing in between. Other than Week 5, where he’d scored each of the two prior weeks and some people probable started him, Davis was likely on benches of any moderately good teams before his other three 20-point games. The weeks prior to these splash games, he scored 5.2, 1.6, and 7.6, catching no more than two passes in any of them.
But the real point is what he did after them. He had 10.3 after the first, but 5.1 after the second, and then a goose egg after the third. He was in more lineups for those games, coming off a big game.
I started working on this one-off piece that doesn’t really need much more color than the title, which was, “I’d rather draft a total bust than Gabe Davis.” Total busts stay on your bench, or are perhaps cut candidates. Players like Davis remind me of that term Pat Kerrane has used for RBs: “silent killers.” You don’t cut them, so they take up roster space all year. They are always on your bench when they score. And then they entice you to get into their lineup just in time for a dud.
I know this time of year people spend a lot of time looking at how good rosters underperformed, and it’s so often these types of players. The sick part is it’s difficult to know who they are in advance (except maybe in the case of Gabe). Some of these downfield receivers have been able to string together consistent volume, and without consistent down weeks, they are just air yards studs. I’m thinking of Mike Evans, who is too good to be in this conversation probably (although he didn’t go much higher than Gabe), but also how Courtland Sutton’s consistent TD production has stabilized his weekly numbers, or what Tank Dell grew into before his season was so unfortunately cut short.
And the way injuries play into this is maddening, as well. It was the first week of the FFPC league playoffs this week, and I have a particularly fun De’Von Achane roster that finished just outside the cutoff for that four-team postseason, so its season is over, despite deserving better (it finished one win from advancing, while having lost four times by fewer than 7 points, and also had Gabe, and certainly schedule luck and points against are another part of the sequencing frustration of this hobby, at times).
On the flip side, I do have one team with Shawn Siegele that has Achane and did make the FFPC playoffs, needing to win twice to get into the sprint. For that team, his Week 13 performance came just at the right time, and we’re one win away from getting another team into the run-off with a $1 million top prize.
As you guys work toward your league playoffs, or are maybe already eliminated and looking for answers, this is one of those unsatisfying things that still hopefully helps explain some things. Sometimes the order of events comes together so nicely — like a backup going off on the starter’s bye week — that we don’t even stop to appreciate it. That feeling rules, and it’s mostly just luck, but certainly we’re trying to make enough good decisions to increase our luck, so to speak.
But sometimes you can make all the right decisions and still run into repeated punches to the gut. It’s just how this goes sometimes, and I promise you it’s enough to make even the most seasoned fantasy players question why they even try. This is a humbling hobby we participate in. I’m extremely grateful this year that things have run pretty well for me in 2023, but that gratefulness comes with a heavy dose of perspective. I hope things have mostly gone well for you guys, too.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Cowboys 41, Seahawks 35
Key Stat: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 11 targets, 7 receptions, 34% TPRR (all season highs)
Thursday Night Football brought us what wound up being the game of the week, with Seattle getting out to a second half lead and nearly pulling the upset over Dallas, before the Cowboys came roaring back to win it with 14 unanswered points in the final period. Dak Prescott threw for another 299 and 3 to continue building his case for MVP, and CeeDee Lamb (17-12-116-1, 2-30) continues to be the focal point, while Jake Ferguson (8-6-77-1) and Brandin Cooks (4-4-45-1) worked in behind him, and no other WR or TE had more than a single catch.
Tony Pollard (20-68-1, 4-3-15) increased his streak of touchdowns to three straight games, but some of the inefficiency that he’d been avoiding for a couple weeks was back. Rico Dowdle (5-15, 1-1-7) continues to be the clear handcuff. Nothing really noteworthy with how this game went for Dallas.
On Seattle’s side, we finally saw Geno Smith play closer to his 2022 level, and against an elite defense no less. DK Metcalf (8-6-134-3) hit for an early 73-yard TD, then two more in the red zone later on to make it a hat trick. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11-7-62) had one overturned that took a lengthy review, and narrowly prevented him from achieving his first real big game. Still, he lead the team with 11 targets, a season high, earning a target on 34% of his routes, and adding yards after the catch throughout the game. It’s been a tough season, but everything continues to point positively, albeit in a slower manner than we’d like to see, as I’ve written about for weeks now. Tyler Lockett (8-5-47) didn’t look great, and while he’ll still have his moments regardless, I’m half expecting him to take a bit of a back seat to JSN the rest of the way.
Noah Fant (4-3-43) looked great, and actually got up to a 60% route share, which was at least nice to see if it didn’t quite make him viable.
Zach Charbonnet (19-60-1, 2-1-39) had some efficiency issues and then left early, but in between racked up 5 green zone touches and a 39-yard reception, turning his 6 HVTs into a nice base that gave him a near-100-yard day plus a score. DeeJay Dallas (1-6, 2-0-0) picked up the remaining snaps and is the name to watch if Charbs misses time, but his knee bruise doesn’t sound serious.
Signal: DeeJay Dallas — only other back to play should Zach Charbonnet miss time (but it doesn’t sound serious); Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 11 targets, 7 catches, near miss on deep end zone look
Noise: Cowboys — 79 plays (second most in Week 13, second most this year, but also some Signal in their pace while trailing)
Texans 22, Broncos 17
Key Stat: Courtland Sutton — 216 air yards (previous season high — 110)
The Texans got out to an early lead in this one, but then quickly lost star rookie Tank Dell to an injury that will cost him the rest of the year, as he got rolled up on during a rushing attempt. That was just a brutal blow to the Texans and fantasy managers alike, as Dell has been one of the most fun storylines of the season, and looks like a key target for breakout star C.J. Stroud for years to come.
With Dell out, Nico Collins (12-9-191-1) quickly reclaimed the No. 1 role and showed there is plenty to like with him, too. Noah Brown (2-0-0) and Robert Woods (no targets) were catchless, and it left a lot on Collins’ plate, but he was up to it.
Brevin Jordan (4-3-64) ran 72% routes and caught three balls with Dalton Schultz out. I wrote about Jordan in Input Volatility, and this was an intriguing enough game to get me interested, even if he only earned a target on 15% of routes. With Dell out and the other WRs probably not being high-end options, the TEs will need to help out in the passing game. If Schultz isn’t healthy, that could mean a real role for Jordan.
Devin Singletary (8-36, 1-1-4) gave back a bunch of work this week, still leading the team’s RBs in snaps but not in touches, as Dameon Pierce (15-41-1) handled 15 carries. On just about half as many carries, though, Singletary nearly gained as many yards, so it’s not like Pierce came and took the role. Pierce did get all three green zone touches, though, and as the bigger back might maintain the short-yardage stuff.
In comeback mode, the Broncos aired it out a bit, with Courtland Sutton (7-2-77-1) seeing some real air yards at 216, nearly double his previous season high of 110. Sutton only brought in two of his seven targets, but at an aDOT of 30.9 yards downfield, catching two balls meant 77 yards and a score on the day. Jerry Jeudy (4-3-51) had a decent day as the No. 2, but as usual, there wasn’t a ton of receiving volume in a game where Russell Wilson completed just 15 passes for 186 yards (and threw three INTs). And don’t get it twisted — the extra air yards were a function of the trail script and likely matchup, because the Broncos still wound up with a -8.3% PROE in this game.
Javonte Williams (13-46, 3-3-24) continued to be the clear lead back, with Jaleel McLaughlin (4-15, 2-2-6) working in a bit more than he has lately, and Samaje Perine (1-1, 2-2-5) only seeing a pair of touches. Wilson rushed 10 times and found the end zone from the 1-yard line on the ground, as well. It was his second straight game with a rushing TD, as the Broncos have relied on his mobility in the green zone a little more recently, with the RBs unfortunately still unable to record much in the way of rushing TDs. They combined for no green zone touches in this game, and still have just two rushing TDs on the year. Javonte Williams does have two receiving TDs, but has zero rushing scores on over 150 carries.
Signal: Brevin Jordan — 72% routes, 4 targets, 64 yards (stepped up with Dalton Schultz out, Tank Dell injured, and would make a viable streamer if Schultz missed again); Dameon Pierce — got more involved, took all 3 green zone touches, making it a tough committee with Devin Singletary
Noise: Courtland Sutton — 216 air yards (season high by more than 100, Broncos still had a -8.3% PROE but did play from behind which forced some aggressive throws)
Chargers 6, Patriots 0
Key Stat: Chargers — +6.0% PROE, Patriots — (-9.6%) PROE
If you guys think I’m going to write about a game that was 6-0 in Week 13, you got another thing coming. My notes include, “lotta punts early,” “Rhamondre (Stevenson) (9-39, 1-1-0) ankle injury on second drive, ruled out,” and “Lot of DeVante Parker (9-4-64) volume.” I feel like that’s me doing me going above and beyond here.
Keenan Allen (9-5-58) was held in check, while Quentin Johnston (7-5-52) proved that he’s capable of catching the football, to a degree, and Gerald Everett (5-4-44) did stuff, too. The Chargers were actually pretty pass-heavy in this one, but they really couldn’t get much together, traveling just 34 yards combined on their two second-quarter field goal drives (one came after a long punt return), and otherwise punting eight times in what felt like a Big Ten game.
Austin Ekeler (14-18, 3-2-9) did not have a good game, and as I’ve discussed, does not seem to have his same burst right now after missing time to injury earlier this year (and perhaps also because he’s 28). Joshua Kelley (6-16, 3-2-9) backed him up, as usual, and he doesn’t offer much. The Chargers are so ridiculously thin on impact skill position players. It’s Keenan, Ekeler, and then what? And what happens when Keenan and Ekeler show their age a little?
With Stevenson missing time, Ezekiel Elliott (17-52, 5-4-40) got a lot of work, and Ty Montgomery (1-2) became his backup, taking just three snaps. Tyquan Thornton (1-0-0, 1-39) showed some speed on a 39-yard rush attempt, but that was the highlight for the Patriots’ offense in the shutout. Parker had a decent day, and his 64 receiving yards accounted for nearly half of Bailey Zappe’s 141 passing yards. Hunter Henry (4-2-15) was the only other Patriot to catch multiple passes. New England moved ahead of (behind?) the victorious Cardinals and now sit in the No. 2 slot for the 2024 NFL draft, which doesn’t feel like something they’ll mess up, and argues not to get lost looking for optimism with this team.
Signal: DeVante Parker — 9 targets, 142 air yards (clear No. 1 in this one with Demario Douglas out); Ezekiel Elliott — 70% snaps, 21 touches with Rhamondre Stevenson leaving early (Ty Montgomery played just 3 snaps as the No. 3 RB, and Elliott looks likely to get a lot of work if Stevenson misses time)
Noise: Chargers — 6 points (it was a weird game, and became sort of a field position thing, but this was their first game without a touchdown this year, and they’ve had two or more in all but one other game)
Lions 33, Saints 28
Key Stat: Alvin Kamara — 10 HVTs (most in Week 13, through Sunday)