Stealing Signals, Week 13, Part 2
The Biggest Signals and Noise from Week 13
Quick intro today as I’ve lost several hours to logistics, and am guesting on Stat Chasing this evening on the Ship Chasing YouTube at 8 pm ET, so definitely come check that out. (The logistics were navigating a trip to New Orleans over New Year’s to see my Washington Huskies play in the College Football Playoff on January 1, which I couldn’t be more pumped for.)
One thing I do want to say for those of you who might not make it to the playoffs, or who might otherwise check out over these next few weeks, is that I hope I helped you this year. I hope you feel like you learned something that will help in future situations. I obviously write a lot, and if you read a lot but still weren’t successful, I can imagine that would be a frustrating outcome. But this is a game where good play isn’t always rewarded, as I talked through in yesterday’s intro. Over multiple seasons and across more leagues, some of that gets smoothed out, and it can be very fun to develop the skills to win consistently.
If you find yourself likely checking out in the next few weeks, I get it, but I do hope you feel better prepared for 2024 fantasy football even if 2023 didn’t go great. For the rest of you who I keep hearing positive stuff from, I’m thrilled so many of you seem to have crushed your leagues this year, and I can’t wait to hear about all the Stealing Signals subs who take down the playoff titles!
The other thing I want to follow up on is my commentary earlier this year about the approach the Jets took at backup QB. The Browns just added Joe Flacco, and while he wasn’t so good this weekend that he was an obvious win, you saw more than you’ve seen from New York’s QBs.
Additionally, what Jake Browning was able to do on Monday Night Football was a better note to point toward. That was his second start; Zach Wilson got 31 across three seasons, and has never looked capable of developing. The Jets did go sign Brett Rypien off Seattle’s practice squad today, and release Tim Boyle, starting a process that I argued they should have done multiple times by now. You’re not looking for a world-beater; you’re embracing uncertainty and taking stabs at it.
Of course, Boyle, Trevor Siemian, and now even Rypien are pretty obviously bad options to that end. Our samples on these guys have only ever been bad. You’d like to embrace uncertainty with guys who haven’t played and failed at the NFL level already, which was why I suggested names like Nathan Rourke. Or, if you’re going the vet routes, the Flacco example is a limited player who nonetheless can get the ball out and show a base level of competency that was at least an option. Ultimately, I’m just checking in to sort of victory lap because from where I sit, everything I suggested has been proven out by other surprising QB performances around the league as well as the total shitshow that exists in New York this week while they try to figure out who is even going to play QB for them going forward.
Let’s get to the games. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18
Key Stat: Mike Evans — 212 air yards, 1.11 WOPR (highest WOPR in Week 13)
In the first game of the post-Frank Reich period of Carolina’s 2023 season, the Panthers leaned heavily into the run, setting a season low -14.5% PROE. Given they mostly trailed and the Bucs were happy to run the ball with a lead against the Panthers’ weak rush defense, that helped make this a boring game, where nothing of major consequence occurred.
Rashaad White (20-84-1, 5-3-22) continues to smash in his heavy snap share role, and was a major player for the Bucs here. Mike Evans (12-7-162-1) was an absolute monster as well, turning in a huge receiving line on 212 air yards. Chris Godwin (3-0-0, 1-19-1) didn’t even catch a pass, but did find paydirt on a rushing TD. Trey Palmer (5-2-12, 1-13) and Cade Otton (no targets) were both in their big roles, as well. In other words, this went how you’d expect it to go for the highly-concentrated Bucs’ offense, with Evans and White as the focal points.
Chuba Hubbard (25-104-2) had a really strong game on the ground for Carolina, as Miles Sanders (8-23, 2-1-6) spelled him, and cut back into his routes here. Hubbard’s clearly the lead back, but it’s hard to pin down how the passing-game stuff will split out — Hubbard had finally gotten back to a high routes share last week with a season-high 68%, but that cratered to a season-low this week.
Bryce Young threw just 31 passes, and completed just 15 of them. Adam Thielen (6-3-25) didn’t see his typically dominant share, as Jonathan Mingo (10-6-69) was more of a focal point. DJ Chark (4-3-56) also had an efficient day, while the TEs weren’t very involved. This passing game remains pretty gross.
Signal: Mike Evans — 1.11 WOPR (this was a season high, and he continues to absolutely dominate volume with no sign of slowing down); Jonathan Mingo — 10 targets, 0.77 WOPR in new coaching staff’s debut
Noise: Panthers — (-14.4%) PROE (season low, and while there’s Signal here, interim coaches are sometimes overly conservative early on); Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders — routes usage (Hubbard was at a season-high 68% in Week 12, then a season low 26% in Week 13, while Sanders has bounced around as well)
Rams 36, Browns 19
Key Stat: Elijah Moore — 0.76 WOPR, 255 air yards (most in Week 13)
The Rams looked fantastic against the great Browns’ defense, with Matthew Stafford carving up a unit that has been death to pocket passers all season. Even after this game, the Browns have allowed 37 fewer completions and 218 fewer yards than any other pass defense in the NFL. But Stafford did get to them, completing 22 passes for 279 yards and 3 TDs.
Puka Nacua (7-4-105-1, 2-34) got off to a blazing start, but suffered an AC joint sprain in the second quarter. He’d return but run routes on just 51% of dropbacks, opening up Cooper Kupp (8-6-39-1) to get more first-read looks that have been shifting Nacua’s way at times as Kupp doesn’t necessarily seem 100%. In addition to plays in the passing game, Nacua had a nice run on an end around, and it could have been two, but the second was called back.
Demarcus Robinson (5-4-55-1) and Tyler Higbee (4-2-35) also had notable lines, although I’m not sure what I would note, so maybe that’s the opposite of “notable.”
Kyren Williams (21-88-1, 5-3-24) played a whopping 94% of the snaps, getting right back to his massive usage one week after his return (he was at 61% last week). Williams continues to be a smash with 9 more HVTs, and he’s one of the very best RBs to have for the stretch run.
The Joe Flacco experience delivered as promised, with 44 pass attempts for only 254 yards, but at least catchable volume. I called Elijah Moore (12-4-83) “one of my favorite desperation starts of the week” in last week’s Input Volatility, but I certainly didn’t expect 12 targets and 255 air yards. Unfortunately, a lot of those were “prayer yards,” and Moore only caught four balls for 83 yards. Amari Cooper (5-3-34) did exit this one with a concussion, so that likely had an impact, but I mean 255 air yards. There’s still obvious Signal here, and it’s great to see for Moore going into the stretch run.
David Njoku (6-2-17) and Cedric Tillman (6-2-20) led the team in routes, but it was Harrison Bryant (5-5-49-1) who caught a TD. Having five WR/TEs with 5+ targets is an obvious positive for the passing game.
The other receiving TD went to Jerome Ford (9-19, 3-3-33-1), though he lost some snaps to more of a committee in this one as Pierre Strong (2-20) got a few more snaps and Kareem Hunt (12-48, 1-1-0) led the team in carries.
Signal: Kyren Williams — 94% snaps, 9 HVTs (right back to a massive workload, likely top-five-ish RB rest of season); Elijah Moore — 12 targets, 255 air yards in first game with Joe Flacco (although Amari Cooper did exit with a concussion); Browns — five WR/TEs with 5+ targets (Flacco volume bump)
Noise: Puka Nacua, Amari Cooper — route shares, and ultimately production (Cooper left with concussion, Nacua left and returned, but neither ran much more than 50% of their team’s routes)
49ers 42, Eagles 19
Key Stat: Deebo Samuel — 7 touches, 138 yards, 3 TD, 1 air yard
The 49ers started slow with three-and-outs on their first two drives, then proceeded to score touchdowns on their next six to win going away. If you’re wondering whether they wanted this game in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship, consider that all three of their main WRs and TEs ran routes on 100% of dropbacks, something none of them had done more than twice this year. We also saw very little Elijah Mitchell (3-13) as Christian McCaffrey (17-93-1, 4-3-40) got a heavy workload, and was his typically productive self.
Deebo Samuel (4-4-116-2, 3-22-1) taking two short passes to the house, and ultimately racking up 116 receiving yards despite just 1 air yard, meaning it was basically all YAC. He also added a 12-yard rushing touchdown early in the third quarter, and his dynamism amid the other three key offensive contributors was a reminder that this is truly one of the greatest skill position groups ever assembled.
Brandon Aiyuk (7-5-46-1) and George Kittle (6-4-68) both had efficient days on limited volume, while Jauan Jenning (4-3-44-1) got a little more involved than usual, and found the end zone as well. The 49ers continue to be an absolute Death Star.
Philadelphia settled for two early field goals, had to punt on their next two drives, and then were chasing the rest of the way. They weren’t even necessarily bad on offense, but just couldn’t keep up with an offense scoring every time they got the ball. The Eagles did wind up posting a +9.9% PROE, highest in Week 13, as this did prove to be a game where they threw more by necessity of a more difficult opponent (something that’s been discussed with them since the preseason). A.J. Brown (13-8-114) and DeVonta Smith (11-9-96-1) both saw great volume as a result, and each turned in strong performances.
Old friend Albert Okwuegbunam (1-0-0) ran routes on 49% of dropbacks to lead the TEs, but didn’t earn any volume. Just a fun note for now.
D’Andre Swift (6-13, 6-2-7) had a quiet game and gave way to Kenneth Gainwell (2-5, 6-5-42) for a lot of the late work in comeback mode. Gainwell ran routes on 54% of dropbacks with Swift at a season-low 30%. Swift also got banged up late, as did Jalen Hurts at one point, but he re-entered.
Signal: Eagles — +9.9% PROE in a trail script, 48 pass attempts (not that it’s a massively actionable note, but want to give a hat tip to those who noted games like this would occur this year, because I was a little skeptical of how that might manifest)
Noise: D’Andre Swift — 40% snaps, 30% routes (chalk it up to the blowout as Kenneth Gainwell played a lot in comeback mode, and Swift was also banged up late; this was a season-low route share and his lowest snap share since Week 1)
Packers 27, Chiefs 19
Key Stat: Packers — +9.5% PROE (second highest in Week 13)
The Packers pulled the upset the old-fashioned way — ran the ball, took their time on long, slow drives, and executing on the margins with third-down conversions and those things (while also finding some luck from the officials late). Other than a kneel just before half, Kansas City got just seven drives in this game, as did Green Bay. You just don’t see that few drives. Look at these drive charts from Pro-Football-Reference — the Chiefs first four real drives were all scores, and then they had three quick ones in the fourth quarter because they were still down. Meanwhile, all seven of the Packers’ drives went at least 7 plays and the only one that didn’t chew up at least three minutes of game clock was just before the half.
If you want to beat Patrick Mahomes, keep him off the field (and then hopefully get a late interception and also a huge missed pass interference call, among other things; to be clear, that’s not meant to minimize Green Bay’s accomplishment, because those things do happen and shortening the possessions does effectively increase the magnitude of those things by ratcheting up variance).
AJ Dillon (18-73, 1-1-14) got going a little bit on a cold night in Green Bay, while Patrick Taylor (2-29, 1-0-0) spelled him well. But the Packers won because they moved the ball well through the air, finishing with a +9.5% PROE.
Jordan Love had another strong game, while Christian Watson (9-7-71-2, 2-15) was spectacular — reminding me and everyone why there was so much hype on him this offseason — before an unfortunate hamstring injury sidelined him late. Tucker Kraft (6-3-37) was second on the team in targets while running another set of routes at 74%. Jayden Reed (5-4-16) was quieter than he has been lately, but with Watson likely to miss some time, it’s alright to go back to Reed.
Romeo Doubs (5-4-72) also had a solid game, including a fourth-and-1 deep conversion that featured something I may have never seen before. Here are some silly screenshots and I’ll try to explain below.
There are two images here, one small one on the left and one wider one on the right. In the first, you can see Love in the background to the right of 63 — Love’s long since released the ball, but Doubs at this moment hasn’t looked up and doesn’t know the ball is coming to him. What was fascinating was that when Doubs did turn his head, he didn’t look back to the quarterback (this happened later in the game as well, and it’s a weird move from Doubs; that one went incomplete). Instead, Doubs — who pretty clearly didn’t think the ball would be thrown to him — was looking in the direction of Dontayvion Wicks (4-3-43), who the camera picks up in the right image above, after we see Doubs looking up to pick up the ball (he picked it up very late, and it was a nice reaction to make the catch given that). It seemed that Doubs may have needed a teammate to literally point that he was indeed being targeted on the play; whatever got him to snap his head up, it worked for a crucial fourth-down conversion that set up one of Watson’s TDs.
Isiah Pacheco (18-110-1, 4-3-13) was ejected late, but still played 70% of the snaps and racked up 6 HVTs in a game where the Chiefs pretty clearly wanted to get some stuff going on the ground, but didn’t have a whole lot of drives given how things shook out. Pacheco’s role was again very strong with Jerick McKinnon out, and he is a must-play option in that arrangement.
Rashee Rice (9-8-64) led the WRs in routes for the second straight week, although he didn’t make any huge gains. That said, his high TPRR has scaled to the larger role, and as we’ve said most of the year, he’s clearly the team’s best WR. As his role has increased, Mahomes has continued to look his way, and he looks like a strong start going forward. He had a near-miss TD that set up Pacheco’s short score. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce (5-4-81) saw a dip in volume, though there’s not much to say about it. It’s not great that he’s been in a small volume and production lull over the past five or so weeks — relative to his own gaudy standards — but there’s also nothing to do about it. He’s still the TE1.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (5-2-25) led the rest of the crew, while Justin Watson wasn’t even targeted on his 67% routes, and no one else had more than one catch. It’s just another reminder that it’s tough to play anyone else in this offense.
Signal: Isiah Pacheco — 70% snaps, 6 HVTs (role without Jerick McKinnon continues to be very strong); Rashee Rice — led WRs in routes for second straight week, 9 more targets (strong start going forward)
Noise: Jayden Reed — 16 receiving yards (got some designed touches on jet motion tip passes, and Christian Watson is likely to miss some time after a dominant game here, which just opens up the need for more Reed)
Bengals 34, Jaguars 31
Key Stat: Jake Browning — 4.5-yard average throw depth (lowest in Week 13)
Let’s start the Jake Browning breakdown by acknowledging that he averaged just 4.5 air yards per throw, lowest in Week 13 among any passer with decent volume. That said, several of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage, and he did push the ball downfield at times. There’s a note here about how Zac Taylor did well to devise a gameplan that got the ball out into underneath areas early in the game, and then another about how Browning answered the bell and was good when they needed to get down the field as well. His long TD to Ja’Marr Chase (12-11-149-1) would not be one of those plays, necessarily, as that ball was underthrown and the DB just lost track of it or it would have been a likely break-up. But again, he surprised me relative to my thoughts on him coming from my time watching him in college, and he’s definitely made some strides in the four years he’s kicked around as an NFL backup, including looking bigger and with a touch more arm strength as he’s probably grown into his frame a bit. One other note I want to throw out though is Jacksonville had a bizarre game in Indianapolis last year where they for some reason let a noodle-armed Matt Ryan pick them apart underneath all day, when every other defense would challenge him to beat them downfield. Ryan completed 42 of a ridiculous 58 pass attempts that day, in what went down as the last 300-yard game of his career, and also his his penultimate win as a starter (he’d lose five of six starts after that game). The Jaguars’ gameplan in that game made zero sense; we just witnessed their 2023 version, where they gave Browning plenty of room to throw underneath all game. All of that said, taking advantage of that with accurate passes underneath to give YAC opportunities is still better than a lot of QBs are able to do right now, and he did add some strong intermediate throws. I think the historic stat line he put up was a little fluky — he was only the 10th QB in NFL history with an 85% completion percentage in a game where he threw for 350 yards (largely because completion percentage is inversely correlated with aDOT, so really high completion percentages typically mean a lot of short passing, which we did get here but then we also got the requisite YAC to put Browning into rare territory). But I also think this was a really impressive game and is definitely a huge positive note for Chase and the rest of the offense going forward.
Outside the Browning stuff, this was a legitimately great game, with Trevor Lawrence playing well to stick with the points his defense was letting up, but his eventual injury, a fourth-quarter missed field goal, and an overtime holding penalty that negated a huge play down inside the 5-yard line in overtime all bit the Jaguars (along with their ridiculous defensive gameplan to not challenge a second-time starter).
Joe Mixon (19-68-2, 7-6-49) was the other big star, although rookie Chase Brown (9-61) was said to be getting extra work, and he looked fantastic on his 9 carries. He becomes a priority stash, as he looked good enough to potentially steal more work just because the Bengals want to see what they have in a lost season.
Tyler Boyd (7-5-37) threw one of the most hilarious interceptions of all time on a trick play, but he still out-targeted Tee Higgins (3-3-36), who continues to struggle, but is also a downfield WR playing with a QB who was hitting everything underneath. Tanner Hudson (4-4-35) led the way for the TEs again, and no one else had more than one reception.
Christian Kirk (1-1-26) seemed to crush his own manhood on a reception on his first snap of the game, ultimately missing the rest of the contest. Calvin Ridley (8-4-26, 3-7) didn’t really step up, although the deep pass in overtime was a great play that didn’t ultimately count. Evan Engram (9-9-82-1) was the real star, with Zay Jones (8-5-78) also posting a solid line. Rookie sixth-round pick Parker Washington (6-6-61-1) stepped into Kirk’s routes and had a great game, including making a fantastic catch on a deflection for a touchdown, in what was a very positive note in his young career while simultaneously not looking great for Ridley in particular, who should have been able to consolidate targets better.
Travis Etienne (11-45-1, 4-4-34) continues to play less that he was before the Jaguars’ bye, with just a 58% snap share here. D’Ernest Johnson (5-4, 1-1-5) is the clear No. 2, and a solid handcuff. Etienne did look good here, and gets the priority touches, including 7 HVTs.
Signal: Chase Brown — looked great in his slightly larger role, could earn more work, likely RB2 going forward as well (priority stash); Travis Etienne — 58% snap share (continues to play less than before the bye, with D’Ernest Johnson mixing in, but Etienne does still see the priority touches and got 7 HVTs here)
Noise: Jake Browning — at least some of his huge numbers (4.5-yard aDOT, tons of YAC, but he also looked good); Christian Kirk — one catch (injured after just one snap)
Biggest Signals
Vaguely ranked in order of relevance/importance (which includes whether it was surprising and size of impact; if it’s important but just confirmation of something we knew or thought we knew, it ranks a little lower; new information and top waiver adds rank near the top).
De’Von Achane — healthy, played 61% snaps including a lot of garbage-time run that was likely just to get him into a groove, like an extended preseason game almost
Zack Moss — 94% snaps, 73% routes, 9 HVTs (smash role again without Jonathan Taylor)
Ezekiel Elliott — 70% snaps, 21 touches with Rhamondre Stevenson leaving early (Ty Montgomery played just 3 snaps as the No. 3 RB, and Elliott looks likely to get a lot of work if Stevenson misses time)
Rashee Rice — led WRs in routes for second straight week, 9 more targets (strong start going forward)
Elijah Moore — 12 targets, 255 air yards in first game with Joe Flacco (although Amari Cooper did exit with a concussion)
Jonathan Mingo — 10 targets, 0.77 WOPR in new coaching staff’s debut
Kyren Williams — 94% snaps, 9 HVTs (right back to a massive workload, likely top-five-ish RB rest of season)
Trey McBride — 36% TPRR, 0.73 WOPR, monster game, looks like No. 1 for his offense
Brevin Jordan — 72% routes, 4 targets, 64 yards (stepped up with Dalton Schultz out, Tank Dell injured, and would make a viable streamer if Schultz missed again)
Isiah Pacheco — 70% snaps, 6 HVTs (role without Jerick McKinnon continues to be very strong)
DeVante Parker — 9 targets, 142 air yards (clear No. 1 in this one with Demario Douglas out)
Chase Brown — looked great in his slightly larger role, could earn more work, likely RB2 going forward as well (priority stash)
Travis Etienne — 58% snap share (continues to play less than before the bye, with D’Ernest Johnson mixing in, but Etienne does still see the priority touches and got 7 HVTs here)
Kendre Miller — solid RB stash behind a great Alvin Kamara HVT role (Miller likely wouldn’t have the same HVT upside as Kamara, who adds some of that himself, but Jamaal Williams doesn’t look like that guy and my money would be on Miller having a strong role if Kamara misses time down the stretch)
Mike Evans — 1.11 WOPR (this was a season high, and he continues to absolutely dominate volume with no sign of slowing down)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 11 targets, 7 catches, near miss on deep end zone look
James Conner — season-high 4 green zone touches, 2 TDs
Dameon Pierce — got more involved, took all 3 green zone touches, making it a tough committee with Devin Singletary
DeeJay Dallas — only other back to play should Zach Charbonnet miss time (but it doesn’t sound serious)
Browns — five WR/TEs with 5+ targets (Flacco volume bump)
Biggest Noise
Vaguely ranked in order of relevance/importance.
Raheem Mostert — 38% snaps (led in the first half but barely played in the second half)
Jahmyr Gibbs — 47% snaps compared to 63% for David Montgomery (some of this was the run lean, but also Gibbs was just better, and it should likely be an eye-opener that he needs to be more involved)
Jaylen Warren — 10 touches (fewest since Week 8, was still much more efficient than Najee Harris and would expect this to shift back next week)
D’Andre Swift — 40% snaps, 30% routes (chalk it up to the blowout as Kenneth Gainwell played a lot in comeback mode, and Swift was also banged up late; this was a season-low route share and his lowest snap share since Week 1)
Jake Browning — at least some of his huge numbers (4.5-yard aDOT, tons of YAC, but he also looked good)
Courtland Sutton — 216 air yards (season high by more than 100, Broncos still had a -8.3% PROE but did play from behind which forced some aggressive throws)
Derrick Henry, Tyjae Spears — combined 42 touches, 20+ for each (season-high 42 rush attmepts)
Jayden Reed — 16 receiving yards (got some designed touches on jet motion tip passes, and Christian Watson is likely to miss some time after a dominant game here, which just opens up the need for more Reed)
Titans — 81 plays (previous high — 68)
Cowboys — 79 plays (second most in Week 13, second most this year, but also some Signal in their pace while trailing)
Steelers — (-13.8%) PROE (season low, Kenny Pickett injury influenced this)
Panthers — (-14.4%) PROE (season low, and while there’s Signal here, interim coaches are sometimes overly conservative early on)
Lions, Saints — both hit their lowest PROEs of the year, but don’t expect it to carry over
Dolphins, Commanders — matching -11.3% PROEs (season lows for both, especially Washington, whose previous low was only -2.3%)
Commanders — 12 completions and 127 passing yards total
Week 13 Player HVT Leaderboard
Here are the top players and teams in HVT and PROE, including some awesome visuals from Sam Hoppen (make sure you are following him on Twitter and supporting all his work, including his visuals and the article that’s somehow more elite than its name, Hoppen to Conclusions).
When you look at his player visual, we’re looking for guys who get a lot of HVT, but also a high percentage of them, especially if their workloads can grow.