I tend to shy away from sharing too much about my own teams, but I got asked an earnest question on last week’s Signals Gold about my own results and the lessons I learned from the teams, and it was a very fair question coming from a perspective of curiosity and probably with a hope of leaning more about the application of the stuff I write about. And it did kind of click for me that you guys are paying for my fantasy advice so there’s a legitimate element to talking successes beyond bragging.
But I want to start by practicing something I preach. I talk about trying not to get too down with tough outcomes, because any one decision didn’t make or break the result, and there’s just so much variance in this stuff. We have to accept that a lot of it is out of our control, and that the negative outcomes are spotlighted in our biased brains, but we also likely experience plenty of positive luck we don’t spend enough time appreciating (because that’s just how humans work).
It’s one of those things where if you polled 1,000 fantasy players about whether they run hot, cold, or neutral — maybe you add in a “moderately hot” and “moderately cold” as options as well — I think you’d see a clear bias toward that “moderately cold” side of the poll, despite the reality that it’s a zero sum question and the results should in theory be balanced.
Some of that is for things like injury luck, keeping guys healthy all season doesn’t register the same way that losing a key player does, because we’re talking about an outcome over time versus a single, high-impact moment. But certainly if you make it through a fantasy season with your core intact from a player health perspective, you ran at least “moderately hot.”
Anyway, I know a lot of you will have had some tough beats, and I had two particularly rough ones I wanted to share. First, the team Shawn and I discussed on Sunday night’s Stealing Bananas did in fact get bounced in the league final at FFPC. That was a really fun Christian McCaffrey team with Breece Hall, De’Von Achane, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, Sam Howell, and so many of the cool 2023 roster-building pieces. Unfortunately, it also had Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and Kyle Pitts in the first five rounds, and it wasn’t able to earn the auto-bid, and then didn’t get into the sprint through the league playoffs with a loss this week as our opponent’s kicker and D/ST combined for 46.4 points (our own totaled 10, and D/ST scoring is notoriously lower on FFPC).
What made that a tougher pill to swallow, as we discussed, was we’d employed a “blocking” strategy to grab two key D/STs on Wednesday, ultimately rostering four D/STs at one point and then swapping a couple out on the final waiver run on Sunday. Our opponent needed a D/ST and didn’t have much FAAB, and we won two D/ST bids over a lesser bid, and then he got Minnesota as a consolation, who went on to pitch a shutout and put up 22. One of the “blocking” adds we made was Houston, who we added, and they scored 6. It was the difference in the contest.
I share this because I get asked about these types of maneuvers, and I often try to note that concept of an illusion of control, where we want to make strategic decisions but in reality there’s just a ton of variance with this stuff. It doesn’t mean you don’t try, like we did here, but you also give yourself the opportunity to really beat yourself up when it backfires, and that’s not fair either. I stand by our decision, which I think made a minor positive impact on our win percentage, because I don’t really believe in fate or those concepts. The results went the way they did. Tough shit.
The other one I want to run through is the Mastiff best ball team I drafted on Underdog, which I wrote up in August. Because the Mastiff was a high stakes contest, it was a very small field, and half of the teams in each draft advanced. Finishing in the top six ensured your $1,000 entry fee back (with the potential to really grow that by advancing through the playoff rounds, obviously).
My team ran into some rough injury luck, but was so strong at WR and TE that it actually made a late push from at one point sitting in either 12th or maybe 11th. It was into the top six within the past couple of weeks, but finished 0.22 points shy of the advance. The kicker is I had one active RB in Week 14, and had also lost Joe Burrow.
Rashaad Penny was one of my biggest misses of the year, and he hilariously scored 0.0 points for this roster all year. I could point to that as the obvious first reason I lost, but I could also point to Rhamondre Stevenson going down when he did; if I get one more game out of him (or even a few more plays really given his score was going directly into my roster), I advance.
But I mean that’s the way these things go. The specifics of the 0.22-point loss isn’t really relevant. This team wasn’t going to make real noise in the playoffs, and there are always a ton of what ifs. I’m not actually that concerned about the Penny runout; it’s definitely the case that essentially only having two RBs (Rhamondre and Jaylen Warren) for most of the season was a detriment, but that’s how best ball works.
So no, I choose not to blame this team on the Penny pick, or even the injuries, any more than I choose to put it on on Cooper Kupp’s rocky season, or Chris Olave’s unrealized air yards, or Jahan Dotson and Skyy Moore busting. The lesson for me on this roster is that good TEs were massive in best ball, because this team really had no business advancing, and it almost got there thanks to Sam LaPorta plus the other two having key moments. (I noticed TE strength or weakness explained a lot of the difference in my expectation and the result for a bunch of my teams; for example, this morning I looked at a really great team I put together with Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans, that also had a Kyler Murray-Trey McBride stack and multiple other fun pieces but nonetheless got bubbled in Best Ball Mania by 11 points, and it was pretty clearly because the other two TEs were Greg Dulcich and Mike Gesicki and the scoring at that position was just so bad. I only note that for those of you looking for answers; TE was a key this year, as we’ll get to in some of the postmortem stuff.)
So there were tough teams. In my two home leagues, I missed the playoffs in one (sixth in points, and my core was fantastic, but had some tough outcomes including most points against by a ton) and barely snuck into the other (that’s the one where I made the ill-fated Justin Jefferson trade I wrote about, but we’ll see if it can pay off in the playoffs). So it’s also not like I dominated my home leagues against theoretically weaker competition.
I already mentioned the Mastiff result, which was a tough initiation into the Underdog streets in my first year drafting best ball heavily, but I did advance nine of 40 BBM teams for a successful 22.5% rate. Of course, it was 11 two weeks ago, and I’d been hoping to get a few more teams in to get to 13, so that’s a bummer.
And then there’s my main bread and butter, the high stakes season-long teams. Out of 19 teams in either the FFPC Main Event or NFFC Primetime, I got some kind of regular season payout in nine, and will advance seven to the three-week sprint (which is the most I ever have; for context, 2-3 teams advance from each league). Four of those teams won their individual league titles; if you’re not familiar with the structure of these, those regular season payouts are pretty key, because while there is big money up top in the sprint, it’s very top heavy. In other words, the regular season stuff did come out pretty solid and will ensure a profitable year.
I did lose that team with Shawn, which more or less got its money back with the loss this week but won’t get a shot in the sprint, and another team with Shawn, Pat, and Pete also lost in the league final under the same conditions. Every team that doesn’t get to move on and is just done hurts, because you put energy into building them and you enjoy rooting for them.
I also have my highest-stakes team, the NFFC one Pat, Pete, and I do with Michael Leone each year, and that one won its league. It got a nice payout and will now enter into a three-week sprint with three other teams within that self-contained league, and the most total points over that stretch will determine the big winner. I’m not taking the time to break all these down mostly because I need to get into the games, and also because these teams are still live so there will be time for that going forward (as well as lessons learned, and some key things I’ll be adjusting).
But that’s the majority of my leagues — I honestly don’t do a good enough job of tracking it all in real time given the content schedule and all that, so every time I try to go through it I forget a couple fun leagues that come to mind later. I guess one thing is I have some co-drafted best ball stuff on other people’s accounts, so you’ll hear about those if they make some noise. All in all, I consider it a successful year, even if there are some situations I can point to and say “If the variance ran a little better my direction, it could have been even better.”
Now, it’s definitely the case that I’m taking the lumps better because there are other successes to point to. Last year, where my results were weaker, some of the fringe stuff I lost really hit harder, because I didn’t have as much to root for (I did get some favorable playoff runouts last year, including on the Leone team which has been a huge boost over the past three seasons we’ve done that; I’m not sure anything I’ve done has ever run hotter).
But a big part of this year for me is realizing the benefits of diversification over a lot of teams (there are downsides, too; I’ve complained before about not feeling as engaged with each roster, which can be an obvious concern). And then also, just generally, the lesson is to be at peace with the tilting losses, because there are literally hundreds of factors that go into the final result of a fantasy football season, and fixating on any one or two is just a recipe for maximizing unhappiness.
Before we get to the games, I did just think about something else I could mention, as I said I would. I linked to the Mastiff draft and I wrote some others up, so let me give quick results on those, because I’ve gotten questions before about the specific teams that I write up and how they finish.
The team I drafted from the 1.01 in the deep SuperFlex format for “The Deep End Invitational” is in first place right now, having hit on some key early-round stuff including the QB structure and gotten some really nice late-round RB boosts from D’Onta Foreman and Devin Singletary. This early Main Event team out of the 1.03 got hit with the Jonathan Taylor preseason issues (he fell something like five rounds into the eighth for the later Main Event drafts), and just didn’t have enough strong picks, finishing as my worst roster in high stakes this year (in that writeup, I talked through how I didn’t take my typical 2023 structural approach, particularly discussing a difficult Round 3 decision, which led to really hammering WR in Rounds 4-9, where I said my first three rounds “dictated a decision to play the hits, and target WRs through the RB Dead Zone”; I think all of that was good analysis, and I don’t regret building out a team this way when the situation called for it, but it followed my approach in past seasons, not the 2023 variations I was leaning into for most drafts, and the old way wasn’t strong this year because that Round 4-9 WR range was filled with landmines).
I also reviewed my approach in the home league where I snuck into the playoffs and my Underdog exposures, both of which feature some high-profile misses that are very humbling (quick notes on my Underdog stuff: I drafted almost all of that before August because of my location issues, and in batches when I was just ramping up my projections and content over the summer; I was very idealistic structurally and really fixated on certain player targets during these periods — some of that was good like the late-round QB stuff and players like Keenan Allen, some was much worse; I’m personally not really judging my results on those harshly, as I was always treating 2023 as a test year, and my approach to balancing exposures will be much different in the coming years, particularly as I’ll draft across wider time periods).
My Bold Predictions were a mixed bag. And my column, “The biggest things I might be wrong about” turned out to be deadly accurate in a way that makes me very much want to add this type of analysis to my process all offseason. I legitimately can’t believe how accurate I was in identifying the missteps I was making, when I forced myself to write out and publish a self-critical piece like that. I’ll have a lot more on that, don’t worry.
I also think just broadly speaking — for as much as I fixate on the negatives and blow through the positive notes (because the opportunities for growth are just way more interesting) — this has been my best year of this flagship in-season column Stealing Signals, and I’m really proud of the way the analysis I do here continues to evolve. I know it’s not for everyone, but there’s a risk with anything this labor-intensive growing stale, and while I do think there’s a certain element to my writing and process that is maybe a bit duller these days, I’m confident the analysis is just getting better, and I’m proud of the actionability I can provide for those of you who do keep up with the column. So thanks for reading, and for giving me the opportunity to do this.
Alright, let’s get to the games. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Vikings 3, Raiders 0
Key Stat: Vikings — 231 total yards, Raiders — 202
We usually don’t have seven games on a Tuesday, and sometimes have as few as five, but the Monday night doubleheader packed more into today’s writeup. Fortunately, we can speed through this first game, giving it as much interest as the teams themselves seemed to. I’ve shared Pro-Football-Reference drive charts recently; check out this beauty. Punts, anyone?
The Vikings suffered a couple injuries in this one. Justin Jefferson (3-2-27) took a shot to the ribs in the second quarter, and had to go to the hospital, though Kevin O’Connell described it as precautionary to make sure he could travel, and he did head back to Minnesota with the team. It’s unfortunate he wasn’t out there for a full game after missing so much time, but it sounds like he has a shot to play this week. O’Connell also noted in his press conference that Jefferson was a big part of the gameplan, which seems obvious, but it was at least nice to hear, even if he was using it as a sort of excuse for the terrible offensive performance.
Alexander Mattison (10-66, 1-0-0) also got banged up early in the third quarter, and didn’t see any opportunities after the first drive of the second half. Kene Nwangwu (2-3) got a couple reps, but only three offensive snaps, and C.J. Ham (1-7) played his typical pass-blocking role and got one carry, but he also only played eight snaps. Ty Chandler (12-35, 3-3-7) took all of the rest, and while this isn’t quite as extreme as the Ezekiel Elliott situation, there are shades of it if Mattison were to miss. I’d expect Chandler to push at least a 70% snap share, with the potential for 80% or more.
Joshua Dobbs struggled and was pulled for Nick Mullens early in the fourth quarter, and Mullens will now get the start in Week 15. They combined to complete 19 passes for 146 yards, with T.J. Hockenson (8-5-53) leading the way, Jordan Addison (3-2-27) trying to something, and K.J. Osborn (7-4-15) and Jalen Nailor (5-2-13) seeing a lot of empty volume.
Josh Jacobs (13-34, 2-2-16) also got banged up and exited late, with the game still at 0-0 into the fourth quarter. Zamir White (2-8) got a couple of snaps, but Ameer Abdullah (1-12, 2-2-7) was handling what were mostly passing downs at that point. I would suspect a split if Jacobs were to miss, with Abdullah playing more overall snaps due to the passing-down work.
Davante Adams (10-7-53) dominated volume, Michael Mayer (2-1-14) had plenty of routes but continued to struggle to earn looks, and Jakobi Meyers (6-5-25) and Hunter Renfrow (5-3-46) were the other involved pass-catchers. The team might go back to Jimmy Garoppolo, which would make sense, and could theoretically have a positive impact on Meyers.
Signal: Ty Chandler — 56% snaps, 48% routes (Kene Nwangwu only played 3 snaps as Chandler took almost all the work after Alexander Mattison left)
Noise: Justin Jefferson — 3 targets, 2 catches (17% routes due to injury, did start with a 38% TPRR in a very small sample)
49ers 28, Seahawks 16
Key Stat: Christian McCaffrey — 1 HVT (first time under 3 all season; averages 6.1)
Christian McCaffrey (16-145, 1-1-8) went 72 yards on the first play from scrimmage, and the 49ers never really took Seattle seriously after that, despite Drew Lock looking vaguely competent (certainly better than I expected). The 49ers were able to get three skill guys over 125 yards, and didn’t really even use CMC in the passing game, leaving him with just 1 HVT on the day. His scoring shows the value of those HVTs, where he posted 153 total yards but had one of his lowest PPR output since Week 6. Jordan Mason (4-20-1, 1-1-6) capped that first drive with a 3-yard TD run after CMC’s long run, where he obviously needed a breather. Anytime a guy goes that distance without housing it, it’s a bit frustrating, but this was a cutback against the flow of the play, which meant CMC had a ton of room to angle toward the opposite sideline despite never really having the angle. He eventually made a move to try to reach the end zone, and I mean yeah he’s not as fast as he was in his younger 20s, but this was a 72-yard run where you felt like he got the most he could out of it. And then he needed a breather, so Mason got the TD.
George Kittle (5-3-76-1) hit for a 44-yard TD and was easily the weakest link of the big four, as Deebo Samuel (9-7-149-1, 1-1-1) was a monster with the ball in his hands, and Brandon Aiyuk (9-6-126) continued his strong season as the primary downfield WR. Deebo did see some air yards in this one, and the 49ers put up 527 total yards, the sixth most by any team in a game this year. And nearly all of it went to their main four guys, who went over 500 combined. That’s why I say the it seemed too easy for the 49ers.
D.K. Metcalf (5-2-52-1) hit for a nice early TD along the sideline, but had just one more catch. Tyler Lockett (6-6-89) had an efficient day, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7-4-25) led the team in targets, but didn’t gain many yards. The TEs split stuff up, with Colby Parkinson (2-2-28-1) scoring on a sweet play design that was reminiscent of the UW Huskies play I wrote about in my Week 4 introduction about how motion and misdirection is the future on offense, where the Seahawks faked a quick pass to both flats before hitting Parkinson on a late release right up the middle of the field, where the linebackers had vacated as they flowed to the sidelines with the fakes. It’s one of my favorite plays in all of football right now.
Kenneth Walker (8-21, 5-4-33) returned to a solid role, but didn’t find a ton of room to run. He did play more than Zach Charbonnet (9-44, 1-1-4), and notably ran substantially more routes, which was new relative to the last time they played together. That said, both backs entered the week questionable, so Walker might have just been a little more healthy, especially given he had a multi-week absence and Charbs has been carrying the load lately. I’m not reading into the split too much.
Signal: Drew Lock — looked competent enough to not completely sink the offense in a tough road matchup, a positive note should Geno Smith miss another game
Noise: Jordan Mason — 3-yard TD (came on the back of a 72-yard CMC run, and he needed a breather); Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet — both backs entered with a Q tag, and Charbs had carried the load recently, so I’m not reading into the split too much, specifically Walker’s 58% to 26% routes edge, where Charbs had an earlier-season edge
Bills 20, Chiefs 17
Key Stat: Rashee Rice — 82% routes (second highest for any Chiefs WR in a game this year), 27% TPRR, 10 targets
The Bills beat the Chiefs after a not-that-controversial late offensive offside, where Kadarius Toney (4-3-25, 2-16) made another Kadarius Toney play, and Patrick Mahomes blamed the officials to keep from stating that obvious note about his unreliable teammate, which is about the only thing that could have gone over worse than the things he actually said. The penalty called back an all-time heads-up lateral from Travis Kelce (10-6-83), who found Toney in open play with an overhand backward throw that gave Toney an easy score (that didn’t count). C’est la vie.
Buffalo played well in getting a huge win for their playoff chances, leading early and throughout, and would have had a chance to answer even if the TD would have counted. Josh Allen did a little of everything in this one, and you certainly got the impression he would have been up to the task. James Cook (10-58, 5-5-83-1) hit for a 25-yard TD reception on a downfield pass, then had another 27-yard catch later (RB air yards!) to put together a really strong RB receiving lean. Latavius Murray (3-9, 1-1-21) still played a decent amount, as did Ty Johnson (5-19, 2-2-2). Cook’s 45% snap share left some to be desired, but they schemed stuff up for him and he continues to make explosive plays.
Stefon Diggs (11-4-24) saw plenty of volume but had a quiet game, and Gabe Davis (2-0-0) had another goose egg. Instead, Dawson Knox (3-3-36) led the WRs and TEs in receiving yardage in his return, but he ran routes on just 40% of dropbacks and instead a recommended start in the short term with Dalton Kincaid (8-5-21) sticking in an 88% routes role here.
Rashee Rice (10-7-72-1) continued to consolidate WR work, running routes on a season-high 82% of dropbacks, the second most any Chiefs’ WR has run in a game this year, behind only Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-2-22) way back in Week 2. Rice matched Kelce for most targets in the game with 10, notching a very strong 27% TPRR despite the increased routes role, as he continues to earn plenty of volume while on the field. Most of that work comes at underneath depths, but that has also translated into a strong red zone role where the field is condensed, as he’s essentially Mahomes’ other possession receiver (Kelce being the main one). The rest of the receiving corps is terrible, as Bill Barnwell laid out on Twitter, talking through their drop rate being the worst of any team this decade. MVS and Toney were the only other WRs with more than one catch in this one, and Skyy Moore (1-0-0) has fallen all the way to just 24% routes.
With Isiah Pacheco out, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (11-39, 4-2-29) got the start and a decent amount of work, but he was more of a TRAP back as Jerick McKinnon (4-19-1, 3-3-18) got the green zone touch and ran more routes. CEH likely has some TD equity, but McKinnon does seem back in the same role that made him a huge fantasy piece down the stretch last year, where he’s largely just racking up HVTs.
Signal: Dalton Kincaid — 88% routes in Dawson Knox’s return (Knox ran 40% routes, but largely in two-TE sets obviously); Rashee Rice — 82% routes, 27% TPRR, 10 targets; Jerick McKinnon — led in RB routes plus got the green zone touch in his old HVT role, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a more TRAP back feel
Noise: Stefon Diggs — 24 receiving yards (11 targets, 28% TPRR, volume was solid)
Broncos 24, Chargers 7
Key Stat: Austin Ekeler — 72% snaps, 67% routes, 6 HVT (tied second most snaps this year)
A year falling apart hit rock bottom Sunday when the Chargers couldn’t get anything going against the Broncos, then lost Justin Herbert for the season. It was ultimately a boring game, with the Broncos not pushed and willing to do their typical stuff, flowing through the RBs and taking a few shots here and there.
Javonte Williams (17-66-1, 4-3-25) got his first rushing TD of the season, and had his third straight three-catch game, as the routes continued to stick and he keeps a hold on a larger role. Samaje Perine (2-8, 5-5-36) still handled 2-minute drill work, and caught five balls, while Jaleel McLaughlin (5-25, 2-1-7) got his change-of-pace stuff.
Courtland Sutton (4-3-62-1) made a sick one-handed TD catch on a 46-yard bomb, while Jerry Jeudy (6-2-16) dominated the volume in this one, but had one of the laziest non-toe-drags of the year. I always write about those toe drags being a question of focus and effort — we harped on it with George Pickens a few weeks back — and it was a microcosm of Jeudy as a player that he wasn’t all that interested in doing that little move that would have gotten him a TD. It’s honestly hard to explain the complete nonchalance on these plays, but it’s a sort of going-through-the-motions attitude that the great WRs never show. They show the exact opposite; their ability to catch and drag in unison is at times an art form. By comparison, Jeudy’s just flinging crap at a canvas.
Adam Trautman (3-2-19-1) caught a TD, and Marvin Mims (3-2-11) got a couple targets, but come on, we know better at this point.
The word coming into Week 14 was Austin Ekeler (10-51-1, 7-5-49) might cede some work to the other backs, but he wound up playing his second highest snap share of the season. I haven’t seen anything about a Joshua Kelley (3-6) injury, but he’s ultimately the Chargers’ RB that ceded snaps, as Isaiah Spiller (6-19) slid into some of his No. 2 role. At any rate, Ekeler’s role seems secure, and Easton Stick was all too happy to check down to him late, as Ekeler racked up fourth-quarter volume and a TD that pushed him over 20 PPR points thanks to 6 HVTs after a very quiet first three quarters.
Keenan Allen (12-6-68) dominated the volume but saw his efficiency lag a bit, while Quentin Johnston (4-3-91) finally hit for some big plays (notably from Stick), but also earned fewer targets than Alex Erickson (7-1-9) and Gerald Everett (8-5-39) on far more routes. Johnston remains at least someone to track, but the 91 yards aren’t some sign of impending breakout after the difficult path to date. Joshua Palmer is expected back soon, as well.
Signal: Austin Ekeler — 72% snaps, 67% routes (didn’t give up work)
Noise: Jerry Jeudy — 121 air yards, 0.82 WOPR (isn’t good, also this isn’t reliable volume in this offense)
Cowboys 33, Eagles 13
Key Stat: Tony Pollard — 72% snaps, 65% routes, 9 HVT (tied most in Week 14)
The Cowboys continued to roll as the Eagles played a sloppy game, committed 10 penalties and losing the turnover battle three to one, fumbling away three different possessions in plus territory. That’s not to take away from the Cowboys, who scored on seven of their nine possessions, and continue to look like an offensive juggernaut. But after Dallas got ball first and got out to an early lead — Philly drove deep into Dallas territory before a Jalen Hurts fumble on their first drive, and Dallas went TD-FG around that to go up 10-0 — Philadelphia just never got back into it. Every time they had a chance to cut it to a one-score game, they had a near miss or a mistake.
Tony Pollard (16-59, 8-7-37) caught passes on the first two plays from scrimmage, and three on the first drive, while going on to post a strong line and looking good in the process. He did have another missed TD opportunity, with a run down to the 1-yard line, where he very nearly crossed the plane, and then came off the field for a Rico Dowdle (12-46-1, 1-1-6) TD two plays later. But Pollard got each of the team’s other two green zone touches, and Dowdle’s role in some ways seems like a positive for Pollard, who isn’t doing as much pounding between the tackles, and also isn’t giving up a ton of the HVTs, given he had 9 to Dowdle’s 2 in this one.
CeeDee Lamb (10-6-71-1) dominated volume, but it was a more normal line for him than his superhuman ones, in part because the Cowboys played from ahead and were a bit more conservative. Michael Gallup (5-3-48-1) and Brandin Cooks (5-2-37) both hit for catches of 30+ in this one, as well, with Cooks’ coming on a play down to the 1-yard line that led to Gallup’s TD catch the next down. Despite Gallup’s decent game, he was still in a rotation with Jalen Tolbert (1-0-0) and is not a full-time guy right now, so it’s not something to buy into.
Jake Ferguson (8-5-72) also hit on a catch of 30+ while racking up his typically solid volume.
D’Andre Swift (11-39, no targets) struggled to find much room, and the Eagles didn’t get him going in the passing game, perhaps due to Dallas Goedert (4-4-30) being involved in that area of the field. Swift’s 50% snap share also wasn’t great, after his 40% last week was his lowest number since Week 1, but Kenneth Gainwell (4-28) mostly played empty snaps.
A.J. Brown (13-9-94) and DeVonta Smith (10-5-73) both saw plenty of volume, and Smith had a near-miss 33-yard TD late in the third quarter that could have cut the game to 7 points. He was open and it was just off his fingertips; that type of play defined the game for the Eagles, but I don’t read too much into the size of this defeat as it relates to the Eagles going forward against a schedule that lets up starting next week. Philly still had 324 yards of offense, despite no offensive TDs.
Signal: Tony Pollard — near-miss TD, 9 HVTs, giving up some LVTs to Rico Dowdle but still in a very strong role; D’Andre Swift — 31% routes (30% last week, both below Kenneth Gainwell, after being no lower than 44% since Week 1)
Noise: Michael Gallup — 5-3-48-1 line (53% routes, still rotating with Jalen Tolbert, and hasn’t been great most of the year, so don’t get too excited); Eagles — no offensive TDs (324 yards of offense, three fumbles in plus territory to kill drives)
Titans 28, Dolphins 27
Key Stat: DeAndre Hopkins — 33% TPRR, 0.95 wTPRR, 0.83 WOPR
The Titans pulled a massive late upset, benefiting from a Tyreek Hill (5-4-61) injury to get some major stops as Miami’s offense just did not look the same with him off the field. That injury came on a play reminiscent of the hip drop tackle I’ve written about (more like the rugby version), and while Hill was able to return for stretches, he was clearly not right. The actual cause of the issue was the defender’s body weight landing on his lower legs, it wasn’t a noncontact or unavoidable contact or any of that.
Derrick Henry (17-34-2, 2-1-17) plodded in for a pair of scores, and maintains his green zone work, but Tyjae Spears (7-29, 8-6-89) was up at a 65% snap share for the second straight week, his two highest of the year. And he was very productive, racking up 6 HVTs and going over 100 total yards.
The Titans tried to get the ball in Treylon Burks’ (3-1-1, 1-5) hands early, but he didn’t make much happen, and then didn’t early a lot of volume in the normal flow of things. When push came to shove, it all went through DeAndre Hopkins (12-7-124-1), who made big play after big play to push Tennessee over the top in this one, and then said in the postgame interview that teams didn’t want him this offseason, and said he couldn’t separate anymore, which just made me sad that he’s not on the Chiefs like he should be and is instead languishing on a now 5-8 team while Patrick Mahomes throws to terrible WRs.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (4-2-28) and Chigoziem Okonkwo (6-5-46) did some stuff. I refuse to dip deeper into the Titans’ offense than the main guys, but Spears does belong in that discussion of now three key contributors.
With Hill hobbled and missing a good chunk of the snaps, the Dolphins didn’t do anything particularly creative with Jaylen Waddle (8-6-79), who seemed to do his normal stuff. Instead, there was some focus on Cedrick Wilson (4-2-30) for a stretch when Hill was off, including a quick fade to him to give up a green zone down that had no chance, while Waddle ran a speed out on the other side of the field and looked wide open from the snap. Durham Smythe (3-2-16) and Braxton Berrios (2-2-13) also both had multiple catches, when I’m often noting these ancillary pieces aren’t doing much for Miami; that lost Hill volume went to those guys more than Waddle. Wilson in particular only ran 46% routes but had a 21% TPRR, and I’d guess all of his targets, or at least three of the four, came while Hill was off the field. Naturally, that wasn’t a very effective contingency plan, because Wilson isn’t Hill. (It’s odd Miami doesn’t have much in the way of contingency plans, which we’ve seen in other ways, as well. One injury and they are toast sometimes.)
Raheem Mostert (21-96-2, 1-1-4) got the bulk of the rushing work, but De’Von Achane (7-47, 9-5-24) was clearly getting designed receiving looks, and opportunities to get into space. He now has 13 targets in two games since returning, and the Dolphins’ Team HVTs have elevated with him in the lineup, a sure sign this is about him specifically. A reader pinged me on Twitter to note the angle route that Salvon Ahmed scored on a few weeks back, in the game Achane left early — where I speculated it was an Achane route — was in the gameplan a couple times here, and seemed to confirm that hypothesis (that game Achane left early was another example of the Dolphins not having contingency plans, when they went to Mostert at a season-high snap rate just running the ball a ton as they wound up in a too-close-for-comfort game with the Raiders).
Signal: Tyjae Spears — 65%+ in back-to-back weeks, his first two of the year (role is growing, but obviously doesn’t have green zone paths with Derrick Henry healthy); De’Von Achane — 9 targets, 41% TPRR (that’s a massive TPRR, but they are clearly getting him designed looks to get him in space)
Noise: Cedrick Wilson — volume was a direct uptick to Tyreek Hill’s in-game injury, and even if Hill missed next week, I’d just expect a different gameplan
Giants 24, Packers 22
Key Stat: Giants — (-5.1%) PROE, 21 pass attempts (fewest in Week 14)
I talked in yesterday’s intro about the Packers’ pass-first mentality in two key recent upsets, but they forgot that here, reverting to a -3.2% PROE that played into the Giants’ hands, as New York went even run-heavier (-5.1%) and threw just 21 passes in a game where they also ran just 55 offensive snaps. Green Bay essentially allowed New York to do to them what Kansas City allowed Green Bay to do a week ago — shorten the game and stay in it for a chance at a late win despite being the inferior team.
Saquon Barkley (20-86-2, 4-3-15) looked great in an opportunity to run in decent game script. He dominated snaps and posted a huge game; he remains a difference-making RB bound to his team’s success for his own production.
Wan’Dale Robinson (7-6-79, 2-36) had a great day, posting a huge 0.89 WOPR, but largely because he got a couple downfield looks in a game where the Giants totaled just 138 air yards. Jalin Hyatt (3-2-13) unfortunately didn’t get any downfield opportunities, amassing just 13 air yards on three targets. Isaiah Hodgins (2-2-22-1) caught the TD, but he ran routes on just 19% of dropbacks, as Darius Slayton (2-2-14) was the third WR with Wan’Dale and Hyatt in a pretty concentrated version of the Giants’ passing game. Daniel Bellinger (2-2-15) ran strong routes, too, but none of it really mattered with just 21 pass attempts.
AJ Dillon (15-53, 3-2-25) continued to be the lead back, but ceded a ton of routes to Patrick Taylor (4-30, 2-2-22), as the Packers seem to be down on Dillon’s work in the passing game right now (this tied Dillon’s second-lowest rate of the season, and his lowest rate came recently, in Week 12). With Aaron Jones close to returning, I wouldn’t be confident in Dillon’s ability to give you even a floor down the stretch.
Jayden Reed (10-8-27, 4-38-1) was heavily involved on reverses and in motion around the line of scrimmage, finishing with an aDOT of just 0.8 on 10 targets, a few of which were just tip passes. He remains a clear part of the offense, and has been productive of late. Romeo Doubs (7-4-32) showed why he’s a bit frustrating at times — at one point, he lost a simple catch on review, due to bobbling the ball going out of bounds. I realize this sounds weird but he does that kind of stuff more than any other WR in the league and it’s not particularly close. It’s basically what I’ve tried to articulate about his efficiency for a while. Tucker Kraft (4-4-64) got loose for a 43-yard catch down the seam, but didn’t earn a ton of volume.
I was excited for Dontayvion Wicks (6-2-20) in this one, and the broadcast started talking him up early, saying Matt LaFleur compared his feet to Davante Adams’. Unfortunately, he suffered a high-ankle sprain and exited early; Samori Toure (4-2-22) and Malik Heath (2-1-6-1) split his reps down the stretch.
Signal: AJ Dillon — 33% routes (Patrick Taylor was up to 48%, and Aaron Jones isn’t far off from returning, so Dillon does seem to be losing routes); Jayden Reed — 10 targets at a 0.8 aDOT plus 4 rush attempts is a lot of intent to get the ball in his hands
Noise: Wan’Dale Robinson — 0.89 WOPR (was great to see, but this is only so high because the Giants only threw 21 times for 138 air yards, and Wan’Dale got the few downfield looks)
Biggest Signals
Vaguely ranked in order of relevance/importance (which includes whether it was surprising and size of impact; if it’s important but just confirmation of something we knew or thought we knew, it ranks a little lower; new information and top waiver adds rank near the top).
Ty Chandler — 56% snaps, 48% routes (Kene Nwangwu only played 3 snaps as Chandler took almost all the work after Alexander Mattison left)