Stealing Signals, Week 2, Part 1
Explosives! Touchdowns! Scoring was back!
The points were back! Week 2 was fun!
I was all set to be more optimistic this week regardless of what happened Sunday. While out shopping Saturday for my daughter’s birthday, I snapped this pic of a t-shirt design to share with you guys:
But optimistic nihilism — whatever that may be — isn’t necessary! We can be full-on optimistic.
Per Pro Football Reference, through Sunday of Week 2, with just 14 games played due to the two Monday Night Football games, we had 43 plays of 30+ yards, including 37 passes and 6 runs. In Week 1, including all 16 games, there were just 31 such plays — 28 passes and 3 runs.
In the 2022 regular season, using team-games as the basis (and controlling for the Bills and Bengals playing only 16 games each), NFL teams averaged 1.35 plays of 30 or more yards, per team-game. In Week 1 of 2023, that number was down to a putrid 0.97. But in Week 2 — including only the 28 team-games through Sunday — it rocketed up to 1.54.
Let’s summarize that, using every possible bold, italic, quote, font size — any possible way to highlight this, because it was so cool:
We had explosives!
We’re back, baby. The NFL was awash with points in Week 2.
I don’t want to spend too much time on the macro, mostly because it’s been a wild shift from what Week 1 showed us to what Week 2 did, and if I wrote a league-level “Signal” and “Noise” wrap-up, the league-level trends would all feel like Noise right now. I’m hopeful Week 2 is the new normal, but league-wide aDOT — while up from Week 1 — was still only at about the 2022 level. It’s not like there were way more deep shots, at least by my weighted averaging of individual player data from PFF.
But there were big plays. Some teams — like the Eagles — ran effectively then took well-timed shots downfield. Others seemed to have more creative answers to get guys into space, and I don’t claim to understand all the Xs and Os, but obviously I wrote last week that it didn’t feel like offenses had answers, and then in Week 2 it definitely did.
There was also just better execution on some long drives, and I feel like there were fewer red zone turnovers and other ways drives don’t end effectively, like missed field goals — that’s probably something that doesn’t happen every week, where we just ran a little hot on drive success rates and those types of things.
But it all works together. If you threaten with explosives, the easy gains get easier. If you can make the easy gains and long drives routine, then defenses have to shift, and the explosives are back on the table. As I wrote while joking about fantasy football nihilism last week, I’m more than happy to take the L on those observations. It’s just so much more fun to have production to talk about.
It’s not a surprise, really, that I probably overreacted to Week 1. That’s what we do with one data point. Like on the macro level, the micro level of Week 2 was filled with spots where things leveled out. It was an “oh yeah” week, where the pendulum swung back, and now with two games on the board for everyone, we still don’t really have much of a sample, but hey, it’s double what we had last week.
Let’s keep that in mind as we make our observations on Week 2. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
Eagles 34, Vikings 28
Key Stat: D’Andre Swift — 74% snaps, 55% routes, 31 touches, 9 HVT (second most in Week 2, through Sunday), +41 RYOE (fourth most), 181 total yards
I mentioned it in the intro, but the Eagles wound up with a -13.3% PROE and a 23/48 pass/run split, but they made those 23 passes count, particularly with deep shots to DeVonta Smith (5 targets, 4 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD), who posted an aDOT of 24.6. Typically, A.J. Brown (6-4-29) has been the higher-aDOT WR of the two, but those roles flipped this week, potentially in response to defensive coverage that reflected their tendencies. One thing we know about the Eagles is they will proactively try to adjust their own tendencies, and whether they were doing that here or not, they got Smith open deep multiple times for big plays, including the 63-yard touchdown early in the third quarter.
Brown did lose a potential touchdown to a Rashaad Penny holding penalty, and then got an end zone target on the very next play that went just over his outstretched fingertips (and was probably a missed DPI call with some late tugging that might have kept him from getting there). Dallas Goedert (7-6-22) also got on the board with some receptions, but didn’t have much in the way of yards. The Eagles’ big three were their only targeted WR/TEs.
D’Andre Swift (28 rushes, 175 yards, 1 TD, 3 targets, 3 receptions, 6 yards) was a revelation, and there’s not a ton to add that the Key Stat line above doesn’t hit on. He started, dominated the backfield, and ran incredibly effectively, averaging more than 6 yards per carry while handling a massive 28-carry workload something we obviously didn’t see much of during his time in Detroit (he did have one 33-carry game in 2021, but his next highest single-game rush attempt total as a Lion was 16). His 175 rushing yards were a career high, and I think you have to feel confident he’ll have a strong role even after Kenneth Gainwell (inactive) is back. His day might have been even bigger if not for two 1-yard TD sneaks from Jalen Hurts (12-35-2 rushing).
Rashaad Penny (3-9, 1-1-5) was a much bigger concern. If you wanted to place some positive spin on Week 1, it would have been that Boston Scott (5-40) was active because he plays special teams. But in this one, with Penny active, Scott just played as Swift’s backup, until a concussion knocked him from the game, at which point Penny got his work (and had the holding penalty that cost the Eagles a touchdown, on top of not looking great on his 4 touches). That Scott just played on offense ahead of Penny, for stretches, suggests Penny is simply fourth on the depth chart, not some weapon the Eagles are holding back. Penny’s cuttable in nearly all leagues, but he’ll remain a watch list player given his displayed talent and the efficiency of this rushing attack.
Justin Jefferson (13-11-159) had a mammoth day, but lost a costly fumble right before half that went through the end zone for a touchback. Had the Vikings scored there, they could have taken a 14-10 lead; instead, the Eagles got a field goal before the half expired and went into the break up 13-7, and then got a quick turnover and scored on a short field on their first drive of the second half to make it 20-7.
Way more is being made of Jordan Addison’s (5-3-72-1) routes vis-a-vis K.J. Osborn’s (6-3-34-1) than I think is warranted. They are both within the top-three and will play together in a ton of formations. Addison has also been more productive, and it’s only a matter of time before the first-round rookie takes over more work. He already climbed from 66% routes in Week 1 to 78% in Week 2, as he played in some early two-WR sets, and he’s had shot plays designed for him both weeks, which have hit. That — plus our knowledge that a lot of teams don’t run their rookies on 100% of routes early in the season — tells you all you need to know about where he’s at.
T.J. Hockenson (8-7-66-2) remains a target eater in this offense, and has now caught 5+ balls in 10 of 13 games with Minnesota since his midseason trade last year. He actually went a long stretch without much production after some early catches, but he always seems to get back involved in this offense, and in this case he had 3 catches on 4 targets and a touchdown on Minnesota’s last real drive. That involvement is pretty obviously going to keep up given his role as the underneath, lower-aDOT guy with Jefferson and now also Addison attacking downfield; Hock’s going to prove to be worth the lofty TE Premium price tag, even as Addison comes on.
Alexander Mattison (8-28, 6-3-11) couldn’t get much going, although the Eagles have a stout group of interior defensive linemen and the Vikings didn’t really try to attack that. Ty Chandler (1-0, 2-2-9) continues to operate as the clear No. 2 and should be rostered everywhere, but Mattison ran routes on 61% of dropbacks, up from Week 1. The Vikings haven’t seemed concerned about his inefficiency at any point through the offseason or into the season; the work should stick for a while.
Signal: D’Andre Swift — extremely effective in huge role, +41 RYOE (fourth most in Week 2, through Sunday), 181 total yards; Rashaad Penny — played behind Scott as RB3, can be cut in most leagues (but still worth watchlisting); Jordan Addison — 78% routes (already jumped from 66% Week 1, has posted a 12.1 YPT on his 11 targets so far so he’s earning more); T.J. Hockenson — 5+ catches in 10 of 13 games with Minnesota (Addison’s high aDOT makes Hock a good bet to keep racking up volume at his lower aDOT)
Noise: D’Andre Swift — 74% snaps, 31 touches (Gainwell out, Scott concussed midgame, can’t expect this type of role going forward, but the production was highly promising)
Falcons 25, Packers 24
Key Stat: Bijan Robinson — +56 RYOE (most in Week 2, through Sunday)
The Falcons came out throwing a bit more, and then they ran from behind to execute a comeback win, which is about the worst outcome possible. At the half, Desmond Ridder had 18 pass attempts, while the Falcons also had 18 combined rush attempts. Despite trailing for the entire second half until there were 57 seconds left — and being down by as much as 12 — they threw just 14 second-half passes and ran the ball 27 times. And they won. I can’t even imagine what he learned from that, or where we’ll go from here. Because of that hilarious run-heaviness in clear pass situations, the Falcons wound up with a league-low -15.1% PROE. They got over 30 pass attempts because they ran 78 plays, helped by the Packers’ offense struggling. The Packers still scored in part thanks to two very long pass interference penalties (Green Bay had only 224 total yards, but Atlanta had 110 penalty yards) and a couple of efficient plays, but they ran just 47 plays in this one, and on their nine real drives, had four three-and-outs plus a fifth four-and-out turnover on downs at the end.
All of that should scare you, unless you have Bijan Robinson (19-124, 5-4-48). We called Robinson’s 77% routes a major Signal last week, and he actually elevated that to 79% this week, in addition to increasing his snap share 9 percentage points. Oh, and he posted +56 Rush Yards Over Expected, the most in Week 2, through Sunday, after having posted +20 RYOE in Week 1. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier (16-48), despite being a very talented back, posted a -19 RYOE in Week 2 that tied for the worst in Week 2 through Sunday. You don’t often see that big of a discrepancy in the same backfield, but RYOE ostensibly controls for line strength and matchup and those things. If you watched the game, you know there aren’t really superlatives for how Bijan looked. He’s already one of the three best RBs in the NFL.
The Falcons clearly wanted to get Drake London (7-6-67-1) involved, throwing him a WR screen on the first play of the game, and keeping the pass rate up early. The same was true for Kyle Pitts (5-2-15), who didn’t wind up with the same production, but drew a DPI in the end zone and then got another end zone target on the next play, but didn’t wind up with a TD on his ledger. The problem is the only time these guys wind up with usage that’s even moderately exciting, it feels forced, like someone is making Arthur Smith eat his vegetables. As soon as things went south, Smith went right back to his ground game with that 14/27 pass/run ratio in a heavy negative script in the second half. When they do throw, they use guys like Mack Hollins (6-3-60) and Jonnu Smith (6-4-47) in ways where it’s obvious they are looking for matchups and going to the guys who the defense isn’t focused on. (If you’re worried about Jonnu’s impact on Pitts given they are both TEs, note Pitts still ran routes on 92% of dropbacks, and Jonnu was running your traditional TE routes like 8-yard sits in the middle of the defense, the types of routes Pitts doesn’t run, because they legit play different positions.) There’s almost literally no reason for Smith’s offense to have players of London’s and Pitts’ caliber as receiving weapons other than as decoys. It sucks we have to do this again this year, and if you think I’m mad they are 2-0, you couldn’t be more right. I don’t care what that says about me, or Arthur Smith’s coaching, or about anything other than getting London and Pitts the hell out of this offense as fast as possible. If I had London, I’d be selling after this game. Even in a good game for him, Hollins had a higher WOPR. I just don’t see how you’re getting a huge season here. (I’d love to be out on Pitts, too, but TE eligibility plus his trade value is obviously even lower with no production yet.)
As I noted, without Aaron Jones and Christian Watson, the Packers were not effective. Jayden Reed (8-4-37-2) found the end zone twice, and fellow rookie Dontayvion Wicks (4-2-40-1) also scored, but Jordan Love completed just 14 passes on just 25 attempts. He now has two games with 3 passing TDs in both, but that’s an easy fade; he’s thrown for just 396 yards and only 52 times, which gives him a ridiculous 11.5% TD rate so far. Even half of that would be extremely high.
While Reed and Wicks were more productive, Romeo Doubs (3-2-30) and Luke Musgrave (3-2-25) continued to lead the way in routes. This feels like it’ll be a tough passing game to get right most weeks, and at least for now, I’d probably want to just hold some of these youngsters and see who establishes as a go-to guy. Watson could obviously be that, as well.
AJ Dillon (15-55, 1-1-8) didn’t have a strong day with the backfield to himself, struggling to get anything going. For a back as big and fast as he is, he’s lead-footed in the backfield, and while he does fall forward on contact, there’s no explosiveness or elusiveness. The allure with Dillon was a size/speed combination on par with Derrick Henry’s measurables, but Henry hits a crease and goes, while Dillon runs with the authority of a 190-pound scatback. I’ve long been a fan, and there are glimmers, and you saw them here, where he does hit a hole hard, and bounces off first contact because he’s massive. But he does so little with that; his long run in this one was 8 yards, and he doesn’t seem to be looking to break something as much as looking for the guy who is going to tackle him. And even those glimmers of burst through the line are so few and far between that it’s ultimately a frustrating experience to watch, as if he’s just not maximizing his clear potential.
Signal: Falcons — (-15.1%) PROE; Bijan Robinson — +56 RYOE after +20 in Week 1 (has been extremely good as a rusher, on top of the awesome routes usage); AJ Dillon — tough go of it with the backfield to himself (3.7 YPC, long run of 8 yards, doesn’t look decisive or explosive)
Noise: Falcons — 78 plays; Jonnu Smith — any concern about his role vis-a-vis Kyle Pitts’ just because they are both TEs, because Pitts ran routes on 92% of dropbacks (they are doing very different things in the offense); Jordan Love — 11.5% TD rate (6 pass TDs so far on just 52 attempts and with just 396 total pass yards is wildly unsustainable)