I wasn’t going to write an intro because it’s my daughter’s birthday and I need to get through the games earlier today (plus I need to write her scavenger hunt clues for after school!), but the rookie RB discourse is just so funny. I’m seeing an awful lot of piling on how this year’s rookie RBs haven’t scored through two weeks, as if we haven’t done this a million times. Meanwhile, I wrote yesterday how the rookie RBs have already won, so I kind of have some explaining to do, and I’m slightly stressed about getting everything ready on time for my little girl, so going to just let loose a little bit here. I always feel bad about tone at the end of these writeups, but oh well.
To cut to the end, yes, you can bench guys in the short term if you want to. The play with all rookies is an understanding that sometimes their coaches dial back their usage early in the season, because “struggles,” but that the team is incentivized to keep giving the rookie chances. Eventually they break through.
We can’t necessarily predict exactly when. A couple years ago when Ja’Marr Chase had drops issues in August, I wrote about how absurd it was that his ADP was falling as a result. It was a short-term value hit but his issues didn’t carry into the regular season at all. He was a league-winner.
In 2020, while I was still at CBS, I got a lot of credit for getting a lot of people on Jonathan Taylor as a fourth- or fifth-round pick, at an ADP roughly around where TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey went this year. I was frankly disappointed by Taylor through like two months, because Marlon Mack went out with an Achilles injury right away and it still took Taylor some time. He lost a fumble in Week 9 and only got 6 carries, then only 7 the next week. I still remember so vividly how people were talking about him as a clear bust. He got 22 carries the week after the lull, because that’s how this stuff works, and after missing a game due to COVID, went on to be a total league-winner down the stretch. It was a short-term value hit.
Here’s how JT’s game log looked that year, with the lull midseason and the monster close in fantasy playoff time.
The teams drafted these guys to use them, and they will. If you’re 0-2 right now and it feels like it’s because of your rookie RBs, I’d posit that you’re just looking at it wrong. It’s because the rest of your roster hasn’t been good enough to carry them. You shouldn’t expect to have a huge points advantage with rookies in the first two weeks. Sometimes you get it and you’re just absolutely smashing. Those are the “big hits” where they just project for more points than their draft value basically every week all season.
It’s crazy to me what I’m seeing on social right now. So many seasoned fantasy analysts piling on a trend where it’s almost binary and the inverse is almost exclusively, “Huge value, going to win leagues,” if the alternative were true. Yes, the rookie RBs are scoring below some ADP-adjusted expectation right now. That’s a known part of the profile. This is not a new trend.
If your expectations were that the rookies were going to be scoring like veterans through two weeks in every case, than we all should have drafted rookies with basically every single selection, and all of them were undervalued. Because of the key that we know that they gain usage and value and production through the season.
Ron Stewart had a good response to this commentary:
Now, the Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton prices were aggressive enough that you did kind of expect big early work. But both have mostly gotten it! I’m concerned about Jeanty, and wasn’t really drafting him this year, as you guys know. But he’s going to get so much work, and every opportunity to fail.
Even if he’s inefficient all year, and even if he’s the next Trent Richardson, note that Richardson averaged a 3.6 yards per carry and 5.2 yards per target — both well below average — and was still the RB8 in 2012, because the Browns drafted him highly and just kept feeding him the ball. He had over 1,300 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games on a bad offense despite the inefficiency. There’s a minor note that Richardson caught 51 balls and Jeanty ceded some pass-down work last night, and that does impact the way RB profiles can score, but there just aren’t healthy outcomes for Jeanty where he doesn’t get a massive amount of work to compile stats.
Hampton is one where his fumble last night and Najee Harris showing even the slightest bit of life was something that, for me, as someone who didn’t draft a ton of Hampton, that was like a sigh of relief. Hampton’s workload has been massive as Harris’ eye injury has given the Chargers no choice but to play him despite whatever “rookie struggles” stuff coaches always cook up in the first month of the season (like other players don’t also have struggles; you just need to play your talent because this is the highest level of the game, with the best athletes, not daycare). So it’s played out in a way that Hampton is just clearly ahead of Harris, and then because he’s so obviously more talented, that’s typically not a thing that reverses for rookies when they take over. It might reverse a little bit here, now, because the Harris offseason arc has been so unique. But Hampton’s currently getting massive work in an offense where, yeah Justin Herbert and the passing game has looked incredible, but that’s going to open rushing lanes, and the RBs are obviously going to benefit. If Hampton’s playing 80% of the snaps in an offense that looks like this, I’ve been worried about getting buried by the Hampton teams. So for my own portfolio, the response was Najee’s emergence was vaguely welcome.
The point is the same every time — the rookies struggle, and people panic, until they don’t. A switch flips, and suddenly everyone collectively understands what the play was. Again, if we think about it in terms of weekly projection, one way to frame it is maybe that it’s about how many weeks they project under some expectation, and then how many they project over. Except that’s not how to think about anything. The cost of the weeks where they project under is not equal to the benefit they can provide when they project over.
Sometimes the player does bust! Veterans bust, too! There are veteran RBs struggling through two weeks — a ton of them! And those are massive concerns in some cases, because you better be getting the early-season points if you’re hoping to cling to value with an older back. Those profiles just hemorrhage value over the season, rather than gain it. But again, none of this is new. That’s explicitly the thing we leverage at this newsletter.
What I’m emphasizing about what I’m seeing from other analysts really isn’t meant to be rude, but this conversation is evolving over the years of fantasy. I get feedback from some people that everyone knows the deal with these players these days, but it’s useful to emphasize that some people just do not. There’s no clearer and more obvious mistake in valuation than these types of things.
What’s fascinating is I think a lot of people sharing these notes would say something like, “We’ll see how this plays out, but it sure looks bad so far!” If they read this, they’d say I’m making it too deep. It wasn’t a huge thing. They understand the point of rookie plays to gain value but are just commenting on where they are now. It’s almost like admitting it’s just engagement farming with the sentiment of the moment.
But that doesn’t track. If you understand that these exact types of misunderstandings are what create the multi-year value propositions that rookies are, you quite simply would not be in a rush to highlight these types of trends after two weeks. Your whole concern would be that you might be misunderstood by some subset of the market that doesn’t really get the rookie plays, and that subset absolutely exists.
And the thing is, it’s September, when the eyeballs are most fixated on fantasy football. People declare winners and losers right now, even if we all know how silly that is, and it often doesn’t get corrected later when it matters. Those people often aren’t following fantasy football during the fantasy playoffs anymore, because they’ve been eliminated. And it’s the same people who will tell you that there are no strategies and fantasy football is all luck, but then the next year they will be certain of new things, all the same.
It’s the same thing every year, and the frustration is there’s zero accountability. People want to have their cake and to eat it, too — playing into lazy narratives that data actively disputes to gain favor with a subset of the audience that may claim to understand but doesn’t actually internalize that none of what happens in September really matters, and then also say “it’s not that deep” as if that commentary is actively what causes the misunderstanding in the first place.
And then on top of that, there’s this whole thing in the industry where analysts like myself who tell you to draft rookies get positioned as naive and just chasing “fun” every year, and then also framed as arrogant about it, as if ignoring full-season projections and the status quo and groupthink makes us think we’re better than others. There’s always this dismissiveness and sometimes outright disdain, and then to have the audacity to misrepresent the information at this point in the year in a way that actively makes people worse, and then be like, “chill out, bro,” is just so, so rich.
You can’t both pretend to understand the plays and also ignore that it puts me on an island right now to say I’m not concerned about TreVeyon Henderson, like, at all. I gotta take scrutiny for that right now, because people still do not really understand it, but then also when he hits it will be framed as obvious in hindsight by the same people killing you for drafting Henderson so high right now. And I’m the arrogant one? I’m just looking straightforwardly at the trends and what pays off the biggest.
It might take a couple more weeks, but my optimism for Henderson is in part about that being an offense that clearly needs playmakers. Jahmyr Gibbs didn’t have more than 12.6 PPR points in a game over the first four games of his rookie year, then missed two games, then came back in Week 7 to rattle off four straight games at 21.5 points or higher, including three at 26.2 or higher. Henderson took on contact on one of his interior rushes in Week 2 and bounced off it; he did the same on the preseason catch I wrote about; there are little things right now that are very exciting; this dude is not just explosive, but physical, and is going to be very good with the ball in his hands. The team context looked much, much better in Week 2. I’d tell you that if you don’t have him, to go try to trade for TreVeyon Henderson. You’re fortunate to get a window.
The Kaleb Johnson stuff is concerning, but a big part of that was questions about his profile and his fit on a frustrating offense with another talented veteran back. I didn’t draft him anywhere. Quinshon Judkins has had his own issues but appears to be taking over, and that’s one I feel like I missed the boat on more way more than I’m worried about the rookies I do have. I’m definitely concerned that my teams don’t have enough Judkins. (By the way, this appears to be where the Week 2 results discussions come from, is a fear of not having enough of those players. Analysts want them to be cheaper so they can tout and draft them in a more comfortable way. They want access to the fun plays, but don’t want to pay market prices for it, so they are constantly lashing out at the market.)
To keep going through the different profiles and talking about what I’m seeing so you can understand what I was talking about with my optimism yesterday, RJ Harvey is a little concerning just because Sean Payton is kind of nuts, and it seems like the pass blocking concerns are playing a role here. But I feel dumb even giving that much ground. As an analyst, this is another where I’m objectively more concerned about missing the boat on not emphasizing this is going to bend toward him getting more work. I’m OK benching him for a little bit until we see it — I’m not arguing you should play your rookies every week no matter what when the roles aren’t great, although I’m also saying most weeks I would still play them if it’s close, because you can benefit from games like Cam Skattebo this week where he takes the backfield over (and the whole point of this intro is when the Skattebo thing happens, he’s such a smash, and it happens every year, it was Bucky Irving last year, and people just continue to need to see it first despite the league-winners being weighted toward the first-time breakouts every single season).
You don’t purely need the Skattebo usage breakout to justify starting these guys, because you can still get the light-usage efficiency we saw from Bhayshul Tuten in Week 2. Tuten scored 15.4 PPR points in Week 2 despite usage bros telling you how few snaps he got; Josh Jacobs has scored a TD in both games and has 14.0 and 14.4. People hear that kind of stat and yell at me that it’s disingenuous. It’s actual fantasy points! I don’t know what could be more clear. Anyway, to finish up the Harvey point, the Broncos lost in Week 2 in a really fun game, and different types of pressures impact these things differently. I’ll write about that game below.
There are some obvious mitigating circumstances in some of these cases. I’m not arguing Tuten is going to out-score Jacobs this week. I’m just saying that when I talk about some veteran backs people love for their comfy usage and touch counts, it’s important to understand what their actual scoring ranges are (Jacobs will have some multi-TD games, as I wrote yesterday), and then it’s also important to not dismiss when the rookies do show efficiency and score, instead of only highlighting struggles.
It’s objectively true that the early-round RBs have not scored as a small sample group of six dudes drafted before Day 3. But it just feels like you need the arbitrary cutoff of “before Day 3” because some of the Day 3 guys look like rocket ships already, and then you also need the cutoff of “after Week 2” because that’s not going to stick.
That doesn’t mean the sample of rookie players will all be league-winners, either. That’s an absurd expectation, but it’s essentially the standard commenters hold rookie picks to. They don’t care if their veteran picks bust. They can feel good that we’d seen it before and the projections told them the veterans were good picks, and the usage was strong, and it was just unlucky. Even when it happens time and time again, and the broad sample shows the undeniable trends of stuff like the RB Dead Zone, people will keep drafting bad RBs for “guaranteed touches,” victory lapping usage after two weeks, and criticizing the decision to seek league-winning upside versus settling for early-season floor on players who can’t possibly achieve the requisite efficiency to be real difference-makers. It’s 2025 and this has been clear for years and I have to be condescended to on this while also being told I’m the condescending one.
I shouldn’t be frustrated, because this cycle is exactly why the market continues to miss the boat on these things year after year. I’ve been doing a lot more work with Reddit this year, and it’s been fun to track some of the conversations over there. There are a lot of sharp ideas, but you do get access to more of the “casual” way of thinking, and I just always do love getting access to the different fantasy football groups, and getting out of what might be called my own echo chamber, because it’s so fascinating to see the ways different groups see this stuff, and then even grade it out and price everything. It’s like we’re playing a completely different game sometimes.
Anything, really, can become an echo chamber in this space, and people can convince themselves basically anything is happening. We don’t have any real, good, objective results measures, so people replace them with biased ones that tell the narrative they believe in. That’s absolutely not to say the Reddit discussion is somehow bad; it’s extremely involved, and then also elegantly simple at times, and there are obviously ways in which viewing things through those types of lenses is super helpful. This is the other reason I love to learn about the ways other people are analyzing this game, because there are always lessons to be learned, or even just reminders of stuff I may have forgotten.
And to the point about rookies specifically, I do very much think there’s value to be had in spots where we do chase veterans, and find the market to be mispricing different profiles. You have to understand all of it. It’s just a hobby that requires a lot of learning and understanding and experience and wisdom and humility. And I don’t sound humble at all this morning, I get that. I hate when I go on these rants, honestly.
But it’s the same stuff every September with rookies, and by this point it’s very basic stuff, but also “it’s just social media, bro, quit overreacting,” and I mean you don’t get to both be the expert and also not take accountability. That’s the part that’s tough. Call me whatever you want about my arrogance, but I own my misses. I led yesterday with how wrong I was about Judkins, for example. That shit eats at me. There are just so many people who have no shame in this day and age and can be wrong, and loudly wrong, and just move on and keep being a prisoner of the moment over and over and over again, and play into the short attention spans of the audiences, and never really try to learn anything.
And then I have to respond to that every year, because narratives form and my subscribers see them and I get those questions. “Given these slow starts, how would you play it differently?” I wouldn’t. It’s not slow starts every time, is the point. We don’t know any of this in advance, but you buy the assets that appreciate and understand the road there isn’t always perfect. You can’t perfectly time the market. Again, these are not complex points. It’s all hindsight analysis, but my frustration is the people who claim to understand the value of rookie plays love to jump in when the rookie values hit their lowest, as if we don’t have example after example after example of not just how that’s an overreaction, but how those guys wind up the most valuable pieces in all of fantasy, and define seasons, when they do come out positively on the other end.
As for not perfectly timing the market, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Skattebo are going to be the best examples of how these things can manifest even earlier than expected this year, probably. And you do try to build a roster that has contingency plans and other avenues to win early in the year. But yeah, sometimes things take longer than expected, and your team is just not good enough, and you lose. That doesn’t mean you were wrong to chase rookies. Even if they were the lowest-scoring players on your team, and look like they gave you no production at their draft cost valuation or whatever.
And yeah, there are the annoying middle outcomes where you wind up in a hole, and then when your team’s light does come on, you can’t get out of it and make the playoffs. But the point is winning leagues. I promise you the path to building the dominant teams is to understand it’s not just about making the playoffs, but having rosters good enough to survive that late-season gauntlet.
Most people want strategies that are high floor, and give them a chance to look good through the early part of the season, and then get into the playoffs, and then who cares what happens, right? It was just bad luck if I lost in the playoffs. No, your strategies are not built to actually win leagues.
That’s what this is all about. I want to feel comfortable right now, in September. I’d also like to win my league, but it’s important when all eyes are on the league, that my friends don’t make fun of me for looking like I don’t understand very basic things and just purely chase rookies.
You can’t have that both ways. Sure, in hindsight we’d love to have drafted all the best players and have the perfect roster. Look around your league. Which team doesn’t have holes? Who drafted perfectly?
I write this stuff over and over and over, man. It’s probably tiresome for most of you guys. But this is so, so important to the disconnect between what people do and what actually wins. It’s this right here — this kind of September panic shifts the focus off of the stuff that’s actually proven to provide that late-season upside, and build dominant teams that win leagues. It’s a hump a lot of people never get over, and they just keep showing that lack of understanding. Don’t get that twisted.
(And by the way, anyone is welcome to disagree with anything. But if you hate read that whole intro, this isn’t the right newsletter for you. I don’t believe I’m missing something, and every year I get increasingly more irritated how many times I get asked about these concepts, and how and why I don’t just do things differently, and be like the other analysts doing the other things. So that’s where my frustration mostly comes from, is I want the industry to evolve just so I can have new conversations. I don’t want bad information out there because I’m sick of responding to it. It’s impatience more than arrogance; this shit has been proven repeatedly.
But if you think I’m the arrogant one and I’m a dumbass, please hit me up and I’ll get you a refund because this is not the place for you to get your fantasy football content. I’m not going to change my approach on these particular topics. Some aggregated chart you send me is not going to change my opinion. These are the foundational concepts that my whole process is built off of, that I’ve employed for decades, and that I have made a considerable amount of money staying true to.)
Another intro topic probably could have been about all the QB injuries. But I can’t today. Just imagine a whole bunch of words about that, and referencing the 2017 year where a bunch of QBs got hurt and offense was down, but then contrasting that with how the league has changed, and how offenses are different. You can visualize that whole second intro, right? I don’t even need to write it.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Jay (follow Jay on Twitter at FFCoder or check out his Daily Dynasties site), but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, and the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Cardinals 27, Panthers 22
Key Stat: Trey Benson — 46% snaps, 48% routes (career high), 6 targets (matches total from all of last year)
This game was ostensibly fun, and a near comeback, but probably both teams just aren’t very good. As the Panthers started their comeback, it was one of those situations where the losing team starts doing stuff and you’re like, “Oh, good for them, but obviously too little, too late.” And you think about how these games never actually become games, and it’s still such a huge mountain to climb. Except this was one that the Panthers absolutely could have won. They had the chances to do it. And getting into that position says some seriously negative stuff about Arizona. The Cardinals got a defensive TD right away, did some OK things on offense in the first half and the first drive of the third quarter, but then were awful playing from ahead, and wound up running only 47 plays. For Carolina, the late-game stuff was fun, but they were down 27-3 at one point, and man, they might just suck. For a fun game, there were no winners here.
Trey Benson (3-14, 6-4-30) saw his routes jump from 27% in Week 1 up to 48% here. Last year, the team used a third back on passing downs (usually Emari Demercado), and Benson had just 6 targets all season. He had 6 in this game alone. Benson also had just 33 catches in college, so it wasn’t necessarily clear how much of a receiver he was, though his yardage efficiency on those collegiate catches was very strong, and he caught all 6 of his targets last year. Third running backs for Arizona have combined for just one solitary offensive snap through two games, as Benson has consolidated the work James Conner (11-34-1, 1-1-18) isn’t getting, and even cutting into Conner’s work, as Conner was down from 51% routes in Week 1 to 31% in Week 2. Running back routes aren’t always super consistent week to week based on game flow, but Conner was over 50% routes eight times last year, and over 31% another five times, with just three games where he finished below Week 2’s number, two of which were the final two games of his season. This is a clear change from last year, and if I had an indication that Conner could potentially cede this many routes, I would have had him ranked after the Big Tier Break that I had him just before. If you did draft him, I think he’s a pretty clear sell; he’ll still be good, but the big receiving work was integral to his profile justifying the age-related risk, and as I’ve written a lot he tends to miss a few games each year. He did have 3 MTFs in this game, but the snap split was 52% for Conner and 46% for Benson, which is also a huge change. Benson is a quick riser up the contingent RB rankings and should be rostered everywhere. He’s also a trade candidate if you can cleverly get him added to a deal. The collegiate profile was very strong, and the team is showing us they do want to use him a lot more in Year 2. At this point, the floor appears to be a committee, and there is additional ceiling of taking over even more of the backfield. Again, Conner’s still a very good player, but he’s on the wrong side of 30, and Benson is a 23-year old Round 2 pick who sat basically all of last year, so he’s sort of paid his dues and also they need to see if he’s the future of the backfield; there are a bunch of reasons he might get a real chance here.
Trey McBride (7-6-78) had another strong day, as he will continue to, while Marvin Harrison (5-2-27) was very quiet. Michael Wilson (2-1-11-1) got the TD, and had a second TD called back by a hold on McBride, though the hold probably sprung him so it was more like McBride was trying to get away with one because the defender clearly had the angle on him and probably could’ve made the tackle. Overall, Arizona’s offense was stilted, as it is wont to be, and probably won’t be amazingly fun or anything. McBride remains the top play because they need a safety valve on like half of the pass concepts, and while that’s not all he is, he does get a ton work that way. (Conner has in the past, too, and this is the exciting thing about Benson’s routes, because he might, too.)
One of the major reasons I was back in on Bryce Young this year was the stability on the offensive line, as they returned a good unit from last year that was likely to be average at worse and maybe could have even grown with continuity.
These aren’t necessarily the top offensive linemen in the unit, but multiple long-term injuries right away is not good.
Young didn’t look great for most of the game as the Panthers fell into a big hole, but Tetairoa McMillan (10-6-100) was the clear bright spot. McMillan is an extremely talented WR that creates easy separation and gave Young a ton of room to throw to on most of these completions, then also added YAC. Young threw three touchdowns in comeback mode, including two to Hunter Renfrow (9-7-48-2). Renfrow looked overmatched at times early, but came alive late amid the chaos. His routes were massive, and Young dropped back 59 times in this game, so the pass volume was inflated. Also, Xavier Legette (8-1-(-2), 1-0) turned 8 targets and a rush attempt into negative yards, so someone needed to pick up the slack. In Legette’s defense, several of his targets were uncatchable, but also it’s not really a defense that he seemingly only got targets when Young had nowhere to go and wanted to throw the ball away near someone. Anyway, Renfrow is clearly going to get chances in the Adam Thielen role, but I do hope Jalen Coker moves ahead of him quickly, when Coker is ready.
Ja’Tavion Sanders (9-7-54) also saw solid volume, and his routes rose to 64% from 55% in Week 1. Unfortunately, that’s still not a great number, and the 59 dropbacks are again notable. Young’s 55 pass attempts led Week 2, and they came on only a +2.3% PROE, because so much of it was the furious comeback where the Cardinals just didn’t maintain possession, and also gave up a lost onside kick, creating opportunity for several pass-heavy Panthers’ possessions. Sanders benefitted from this atmosphere.
Chuba Hubbard (10-38, 6-5-39-1) dominated the backfield, and hilariously caught another TD. Rico Dowdle (6-9, 1-1-10) looked awful, because he’s Rico Dowdle. He managed -8 RYOE on six carries. Trevor Etienne (1-1-2) barely played, but keep him on your watch list as someone who could earn playing time later.
Signal: Trey Benson — 46% snaps, career-high 48% routes, 6 targets (strong usage for standalone role thesis, significant value riser through two weeks that is probably still acquireable); Tetairoa McMillan — 86% routes, 10 targets
Noise: Panthers — 76 plays, 55 pass attempts (furious comeback, only had a +2.3% PROE but ran a ton of late plays because Arizona couldn’t ice the game); Ja’Tavion Sanders — 9 targets (the 24% TPRR is awesome, but the 64% routes aren’t great, and he was boosted by game environment)
Colts 29, Broncos 28
Key Stat: Troy Franklin — 84% routes, 9 targets, 33% TPRR, 0.71 WOPR
In a week with a bunch of exciting stuff, this was the game of the week for me. Indianapolis stole a huge win after a late leverage penalty on a 60-yard field goal try that never had a chance. Sean Payton took the blame for calling an all-out block play that was more for shorter game-winning field goals, presumably because it ran the risk of a penalty if not timed or executed correctly. It was a horrible penalty there, obviously, and decided a crazy game where the Broncos rebounded from their rough Week 1 but the Colts absolutely did not back down, and showed they are for real.
Jonathan Taylor (25-165, 2-2-50-1) was the star for a Colts’ team that went -5.6% PROE, and he’s already looking like a huge hit in Round 2 of drafts. I basically said on Stealing Bananas I’d take him over Saquon Barkley at this point, in asking Siegele a leading question about that, and he gave the same answer. It’s not really meant to knock Barkley in a major way, as much as acknowledge that Taylor’s in a very similar type of offense and through two weeks looks like he’s ready for one of his peak seasons, like we’ve seen before, and like we saw from Barkley last year where he regained that peak form from several years prior. And so far this year, Barkley doesn’t necessarily look like he’s at the same peak he was in 2024, which is just a fascinating commentary on the margins of this stuff among elite athletes. This is why we make bets on uncertainty; it doesn’t always go exactly as we think; my thoughts here might change literally next week (particularly on Barkley, who I’ll discuss below and I’m really not trying to sound too down on). But JT looks absolutely elite right now, and would have had a second TD in this game but after getting the Colts down to the 1-yard line, Daniel Jones got three straight tush pushes, confirming my notes last week that he’s going to get a lot of that stuff when they do get the ball at the 1-yard line. JT still scored in a huge way, creating a big play on a swing pass, then later scoring on his other catch, to total 50 receiving yards on just the two targets. Then he added a 60+ yard run on what was his third straight carry, so he seemed a little gassed on the run and couldn’t quite house it. Hilariously, he stayed on the field for the next down; there are basically no other RBs in the league that would have a 60+ yard run on a third straight carry and not come off for a blow. He’s a legit every-down back and played 93% of the snaps, adding a whopping 8 missed tackles forced. This is what it was like early last year with Saquon.
Josh Downs (8-6-51) got involved quickly and early in this one, but still only ran 58% routes. His 36% TPRR was awesome to see, but the routes are not. Michael Pittman (5-4-40) ran big routes but wasn’t targeted as much this week, while Alec Pierce (5-4-68) did get involved more. I’m not really buying that because Adonai Mitchell (4-2-20) also looked good in this game; Indy is deep and crowded with talented WRs.
A big part of the crunch is Tyler Warren (7-4-79) leading the team in targets, and he continues to look like the centerpiece of the passing game. His 55 yards after the catch included a nifty play where he cut back on two defenders and made them look silly for overpursuing the angle, and he was second among TEs behind only Tucker Kraft in Week 2 in that YAC stat. He might have Kraft’s after-the-catch skill but with bigger target volume. His upside is huge.
Bo Nix looked great in this one, and Troy Franklin (9-8-89-1, 1-11) was the biggest beneficiary, leading the team with 84% routes and posting a 33% TPRR on that volume, plus adding efficiency. His 0.71 WOPR was extremely significant; no player other than Courtland Sutton (4-1-6) has had a WOPR over 0.57 in any game since the start of last season. Sutton in that span has gone over 0.71 10 times, because he’s always had a huge lead in routes, but the other very significant note here was Sutton at just 69% routes. Last year, he was below 75% routes just one time, and he averaged 84%, while frequently hitting 90%. All non-Sutton players never had a game with an 80% route rate, and all combined to hit 70% just twice, so Franklin’s 84% broke that barrier, too. I’m sure Sean Payton will go back to his rotational ways, but this all feels like legitimate Signal to be seeing it in Week 2. And Franklin’s profile was awesome coming out of college. Siegele was right; Troy Franklin is for real.
Marvin Mims (2-2-24-1) had an early TD catch, but it didn’t earn him a bunch more work, as his routes dipped to 41%. Evan Engram (2-1-12) had the calf thing last week, and maybe isn’t 100%, but he ran just 53%. He was someone I had as a clear Fade early, based on basically this exact concern, and then allowed myself to flip that toward the upside when I saw some of the August stuff, and make him into a Target I was pursuing. Naturally, I’m frustrated with that outcome, but I’m not going to make some big declaration about how I should stick to my guns because we’re always just making the best decisions we can make. The earlier position on Engram does seem more valid through two weeks, but maybe the injury is limiting him.
Pat Bryant (3-2-18) also got a few more routes, up to 28%, and even Trent Sherfield (1-1-3) got 22% routes, so Payton was doing his rotational stuff big time. Adam Trautman (3-3-10-1) was at 25% and took some of Engram’s work, catching a TD. Payton’s not fun for fantasy, but that’s why the Franklin thing sticks out so much.
At RB, RJ Harvey (5-8, 2-1-16) had a rough game from an efficiency perspective, and J.K. Dobbins (14-76-1, 2-1-9) looked like the clear lead back through most of the relevant portions of the game. Tyler Badie (1-3, 2-2-19) still mixed in, as well, stealing 19% routes. Harvey got decent routes at 25%, and he’s basically matched Dobbins in that regard. Badie is muddying things so neither of them can get too high. I still think the Harvey usage is going to trend favorably, but we do probably want to see it before we keep playing him every week right now.
Signal: Jonathan Taylor — 89% snaps, 8 MTF, explosives as both a runner and receiver, massive volume, undeniable efficiency, looks like 2024 Saquon and primed for an elite season; Josh Downs — 36% TPRR, looked good, but only 58% routes (would love to see that increase); Tyler Warren — 55 YAC, team-high 7 targets (big ball-in-hand ability with big volume, huge upside); Daniel Jones — three straight tush pushes (definite rush TD upside here makes him very viable for fantasy, as he’s also operating the pass game very well); Troy Franklin — 84% routes, 9 targets, 33% TPRR, 0.71 WOPR (first non-Sutton Denver WR over 80% routes since the start of last year, highest WOPR for a non-Sutton Denver WR by more than 0.1 since the start of last year, huge; Courtland Sutton — 69% routes (was below 75% just once last year, so not a great sign)
Noise: RJ Harvey — 32% snaps, 25% routes, 6 touches (this won’t be the long-term role, but we do probably want to sit him where possible until we see things expand, because that could be weeks)