Stealing Signals, Week 3, Part 1
The Signal and the Noise from TNF, early Sunday games
That the NFL still continues to make the clear mistake of putting nine games in one window on Sundays — at any point in time, for any reason — is a travesty. Doing it when you have a Monday night doubleheader is that much more confusing. You’re already one game light on Sunday! Just balance it out! Your fans obviously, obviously want that.
But leave it to the NFL to not just grab the low-hanging fruit. It’s something other leagues like the NBA do so well. To be clear, most of the decisions the NFL makes with wider ramifications are terrible for the league, too — they are constantly too reactive with rules changes, typically waiting to fix obvious issues until it screws over a team and whole city in a playoff game when they could just proactively design the game to be the best (and fairest) product possible; they are adding games for money at the expense of what’s best for players; they won’t consider grass vis-a-vis turf, because money; they don’t make competence a major decision point in who officiates the games, instead basically appointing referees to lifetime positions; et al.
But those are problems with more of an impact to consider, and maybe I don’t understand the whole picture. What’s most frustrating is the low-hanging fruit. Something as simple as not having nine games on at the same time in one viewing window, and then just three in the next. I understand there are broadcast contracts, and they want their games highlighted in the later window, but it’s obviously possible to do it with a little more balance, because they have more balance other weeks.
That also sets aside that it’s probably in the best interest of the broadcast partners, too! How many more people decided this was the Sunday they could step away from the TV during the late games given there were only three games on? I’m sure some of you were actually pleased you could track more games in the first window and then move on with your day, getting a bigger idea of what happened during the day’s action without spending the whole day glued to your TV. But regardless of what a fan like that actually wants, what’s obviously best for their media deals is to increase the likelihood those fans will stay at home on the couch. And balancing the games is going to do that, but the issues there get back to how the NFL has never really embraced that fantasy football — and now betting is increasingly included in this, but fantasy is still king — is what drives the popularity in the league. And with fantasy driving popularity, more action in the late window is going to mean more eyeballs.
Anyway, the NFL is dumb, and that meant that it was more difficult this week for me to watch through everything I needed to cover in today’s writeup. I had some ideas for intros — talking through Miami, and the head coaches from The Playcallers I wrote about so much this offseason — but we’ll maybe do a longer intro tomorrow or a writeup Wednesday.
[While I’m complaining about the league, I do just want to quickly say the execution both from the refs and the players on the “open hand” rule so far this year has been terrible. That’s the rule after a QB is hit and the ball flutters out, where it’s not clear whether it was a forward pass or a fumble, but the play is supposed to stay live and then a ruling is meant to be made. In Week 1, the refs blew a play in New Orleans dead — and then left their call on the field as it was, despite the whole broadcast booth being in unison that it should get overturned to a fumble (and me being fully in agreement) — that cost Tennessee. We’ve seen other similar plays blown dead, but also a ton of plays where the players are not playing until the whistle, which is just mind-boggling at this point. How is that play not being coached up? This has been a thing for years now, and these are potentially game-changing plays. And there have been several where everyone is just way more sure that it’s an incomplete pass than they have any right to be.]
Anyway, we have 10 games to hit in today’s Part 1 — including Thursday Night Football — so this has been me deciding to “bypass” the intro today. (You can tell I bypassed the intro because this was only 750 words instead of multiple thousand.) Let’s get to the Week 3 games.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
49ers 30, Giants 12
Key Stat: Deebo Samuel — 12 targets, 33% TPRR, 0.80 WOPR (tied sixth most in Week 3, through Sunday)
The 49ers crushed the Giants on Thursday Night Football — it’s not often that an 18-point final score doesn’t tell the whole story, but given San Francisco had nearly three times as many yards (441 to a putrid 150 for New York), I’d contend the final tally could have, and perhaps should have, looked like an even bigger blowout. In some respects, Kyle Shanahan appeared to be sort of playing with his food, not really wanting to show too much and keeping things somewhat bland, which in the end wasn’t something you could blame him for, especially given it was a short week and there might have been logistical elements to getting more advanced stuff installed. And yet, the 49ers settling for two field goals that were shorter than extra points — among other elements — kept this at a one-possession game through three quarters, until they pulled away as the Giants, while still technically in it, couldn’t actually do anything about that.
With Brandon Aiyuk out, Deebo Samuel (12-6-129-1, 1-2 rushing) was the star in the passing game, getting a ton of volume and — despite a low catch rate due to some poor Brock Purdy passes — generating a ton of yards after the catch for an easy 100-yard day. George Kittle (9-7-90) also came alive for his biggest receiving game of the year, and his 48 yards after the catch would have been a fun note if not for Deebo upstaging him with 78. That’s obviously what these guys do.
Christian McCaffrey (18-85-1, 5-5-34) had a near miss on a late wheel route near the front of the end zone, where he had both hands on the ball but it got punched out as he came down for what would have been a 23-yard receiving touchdown. The play actually featured a defensive penalty so it didn’t officially count, which is why his final line featured 5 receptions on 5 targets; had he caught the pass, the 49ers would have declined the penalty and his receiving day would have been even bigger. McCaffrey still posted 9 HVTs to tie for the most in Week 3, through Sunday; that number was also more than he had posted in Weeks 1 and 2 combined (7). Elijah Mitchell (11-42, 3-3-2) also worked in for a decent game, with Week 3 likely representing the high end of his range of potential involvement going forward, on the short week after zero Week 2 touches. McCaffrey notably got all four green zone touches.
There’s not a lot to say about a Giants’ performance where they totaled just 10 first downs and ran just 46 plays, but Wan’Dale Robinson (5-4-21) looked good in his first action of the year, winning on some short-area routes that bode well for him going forward. While he only had 21 yards, he was targeted 5 times on just 9 routes for a silly 56% TPRR, including 3 third-down targets. He’s a nice stash as someone whose routes role could grow and who has shown strong target-earning ability thus far in his career.
Matt Breida (4-17-1, 3-3-1) led the backfield and punched in the Giants’ only TD, while Gary Brightwell (4-5, 3-2-31) saw the other work and Eric Gray didn’t play on offense.
Darren Waller (7-3-20) should have had a couple more catches but Daniel Jones missed him a couple times, including on a third-and-12 where he clearly won on the route and they had a much-needed first down with YAC potential but Jones faded from a pretty clean pocket and sailed the throw high and behind Waller. You just can’t have that.
Darius Slayton (6-3-32) continued to be the No. 1 WR in routes, while Parris Campbell (6-6-24) drew a lot of short targets in a limited, low-aDOT role, similar to what Wan’Dale did.
Signal: Christian McCaffrey — 9 HVTs (was great to see him catch a few more passes and also get all four green zone touches); Wan’Dale Robinson — 56% TPRR including 3 third-down targets in his first limited action (worth a stash as someone who has shown real target-earning upside in his short career)
Noise: Giants — 46 plays, 150 total yards (they’ve been bad so far, but Week 3 was bottomed out production)
Colts 22, Ravens 19
Key Stat: Zay Flowers — 10 targets, 2.8 aDOT
This game had the potential to be pretty awesome, with two offenses that clearly want to play fast, but with a little rain early and some poor execution at times, it turned into a field goal fest. At the end of the day, with overtime aiding this figure, the Colts ran 84 plays, the most by any team through Sunday of Week 3. The Ravens had 72 plays of their own, despite both teams posting solidly negative PROEs (Colts were -6.8% while Ravens were -4.6%).
The expectation with Gardner Minshew was a lot of pass volume and plenty of completions, and with a 27-for-44 day passing, he didn’t disappoint. Michael Pittman (11-9-77) continued to rack up volume at a low aDOT, Alec Pierce (7-3-43) totaled 161 air yards to keep the defense honest, and Josh Downs (12-8-57) continued his emergence as an undersized rookie slot guy who had a nice production profile. Downs is the kind of PPR guy you can definitely use in specific situations. Kylen Granson (4-2-9) had a quiet day.
Zack Moss (30-122, 3-2-23-1) got a massive 32 touches, and continues to play well, which is awesome, and also made me think about what Jonathan Taylor might have done in this setting. Taylor is eligible to return after just one more week, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. Moss meanwhile caught an early wheel route for a touchdown. For those who don’t know, we love RB air yards around here, and we love wheel routes around here, so the RB wheel route is the lowkey best play in football.
Gus Edwards (11-51) got most of the early work for Baltimore, but got a concussion late. Melvin Gordon (10-32, 2-2-23) largely took over the early-down work, while Kenyan Drake (1-0, 3-2-31) had been mixing in on passing downs throughout. Drake had a nice 24-yard reception late in the first quarter until he got stripped from behind right around the Colts’ 20-yard line, as Baltimore looked to capitalize on an early 7-0 lead and push things to two scores. That wound up being a pretty huge play in the game, as the Colts came back from their early defensive struggles to tighten up and ultimately lead 10-7 by half, something that wouldn’t have happened without Drake’s fumble. Anyway, Gordon looked pretty decent to me, and might be worth a stash, although Justice Hill very well might return next week (and Edwards’ status is unclear).
Zay Flowers (10-8-48, 1-2) had another high-volume game at a very low aDOT (2.8), which is just designed stuff to get him in space around the line of scrimmage. Rashod Bateman (3-1-6) couldn’t even get targets, and was only out there for 70% routes despite Odell Beckham missing the game, with Nelson Agholor (4-4-39) playing ahead of him. Mark Andrews (5-4-35) had a quiet day in this one.
Signal: Zack Moss — 32 touches, 77% snaps; Michael Pittman — continues to dominate volume at a low aDOT (26% TPRR, 5.9 aDOT for the season)
Noise: Colts — 84 plays (this number is specifically high, and it was overtime-aided, but we keep seeing they will play fast); Ravens’ RBs — Gus Edwards was concussed, and Justice Hill was out, but Melvin Gordon did look decent while taking on more work late (lot of uncertainty on who will be available and usage next week, so track it, but Gordon feels like a reasonable cheap add)
Browns 27, Titans 3
Key Stat: Browns — +3.6% PROE, Deshaun Watson — +15.2% CPOE (led Week 3, through Sunday
The Browns came out with a season-high +3.6% PROE against the pass funnel Titans, which is to say that teams are typically unwilling to run into this strong interior defense. But what was notable for them was Deshaun Watson playing well as they transition to life without Nick Chubb, with Watson completing 82% of his passes, for a Week 3 leading +15.2% Completion Percentage Over Expected. One of his big issues has been holding the ball too long, and he was still third slowest in terms of time to throw in Week 3, which is to say that he showed he can still physically throw the ball accurately when he has time, but he also maybe didn’t quite quell concerns over how quickly he’s processing and getting it out, and those are the bigger concerns for other matchups.
Jerome Ford (10-18-1, 3-2-33-1) both rushed for and caught a touchdown, converting the team’s only RB green zone touch while also running routes on 57% of dropbacks and catching a 19-yard TD early. He only played 56% snaps, but he was done for the day early in the fourth quarter after just two touches in that period, while Kareem Hunt (5-13, 3-2-22) got three of his seven touches in the fourth quarter, and Pierre Strong (6-27) took over for the final drive and got five of his six touches there. Stating the inverse, Ford had 10 touches through three quarters, while Hunt had four and Strong had just one. For his part, Hunt already looked like the clear No. 2, getting at least one offensive touch each quarter, while Strong mostly just played at the end.
Elijah Moore (9-9-49, 3-(-1)) was seemingly the other big beneficiary of the post-Chubb offense, seeing a ton of early, short receptions, as well as some rushing work. His 1.1 aDOT explains the 49 yards on 9 receptions for the day, but that much designed work still plays. It’ll be interesting to see if that was just a matchup-specific role based on the Titans’ strong rush defense. Amari Cooper (8-7-116-1) nearly had another long touchdown but a ref blew a whistle thinking he stepped out. Replays showed he hadn’t, but the play had to be called dead. His 0.80 WOPR was one of the biggest of the week, and he’s starting to show some chemistry with Watson.
It’s not quite clear what’s going on with David Njoku’s (4-4-20) role, because the routes are there, but he has an aDOT of just 1.8 on his 11 targets so far this year. I can’t really explain why they aren’t throwing downfield to one of the league’s most athletic TEs.
The Titans ran just 45 plays, fewest in Week 3 through Sunday. I’d typically call this kind of thing Noise, but I mean, is it? They did run 59 and 63 plays in their first two games (the 63 included overtime), but I’m pretty concerned about this offense as a whole.
DeAndre Hopkins (7-3-48) is still good at the game. He nearly made a ridiculous catch right before half but the review process couldn’t comprehend what they saw so the call stood as incomplete. Gene Steratore had it as a catch in the booth. Treylon Burks (6-1-5) and Chigoziem Okonkwo (4-3-7) didn’t get much done with their receiving work.
Tyjae Spears (4-6, 4-4-3) substantially out-snapped Derrick Henry (11-20), who got an early exit in the blowout loss. That makes sense, but the extent to which they just rolled with Spears also reinforces he’s not just a backup RB, but rather very involved in the offense.
Signal: Jerome Ford — 57% routes, converted team’s only RB green zone touch, strong usage despite lack of efficiency in tough run matchup (56% snaps were a bit noisy on the low end due to blowout); Kareem Hunt — already looked like the No. 2, with Pierre Strong getting five carries on the final drive in garbage time, but Hunt getting at least one offensive touch each quarter; David Njoku — 1.8 aDOT on his 11 targets this year (20 total air yards, hard to explain why he isn’t getting downfield looks)
Noise: Elijah Moore — 9 targets, 3 rushes (potentially very exciting usage, but calling it Noise for now because of a 1.1 aDOT in a matchup with the Titans that teams are hesitant to run on; there’s some question if it was matchup-specific designed stuff rather than a featured role to help replace Chubb, but important to take note of either way); Titans — 45 plays (fewest in Week 3, through Sunday); Tyjae Spears — 58% snaps to Derrick Henry’s 37% (chalk it up to the blowout script, but it’s more evidence Spears is not just a backup RB and rather very involved in the offense)
Lions 20, Falcons 6
Key Stat: Sam LaPorta — 11 targets, 41% TPRR, 0.71 WOPR