If you missed it, I sent three introduction topics and over 5,000 words out in a separate post. The way I’d initially started the intros was to say the feedback to my extra post last week was overwhelming, and I really appreciate it. I’ve hopefully said it a ton, but for as much as you guys seem to appreciate what I bring to this space, I appreciate you guys as an audience just the same.
It’s fascinating to think about the parallels between what you guys enjoy in my writing and what I get out of your comments. You guys talk about me as someone who obviously cares about this, and where you can feel the passion in my work, and then when I read the specific details of the feedback, there’s similar evidence you guys as a subscriber base clearly care about this newsletter, and what I bring to your experience with fantasy football. It’s very cool to feel that excitement and passion returned, and though I didn’t get through replying to all the messages, I promise I appreciate all of them. I plan to circle back to that post in the future, just to read the comments.
The intros today were a direct response, in that I’m always energized by you guys. As for the catharsis I got out of that post last week, I do think there was probably a lot that was useful in it as well, or it wouldn’t have been something to work through. I know we all like to say “it’s just fantasy football,” but the psychological side of this is so challenging, and is so often such a huge part of the experience. Thinking about the ways we’re interpreting the events is so huge. I find it’s extremely useful to learn from that stuff instead of ignoring it.
One other thing. Those of you who were here in 2022 probably remember I was a bit annoying about my Seattle Mariners making the playoffs for the first time since 2001, when I was 14 years old. They won a wild card series before being eliminated, then missed the postseason by one game in both 2023 and 2024.
The young core they had, that they haven’t necessarily supported with the requisite free agent spending, has developed. They have supported it via trade, with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto doing his job so damn well he was sending prospects for MLB talent like Luis Castillo and Randy Arozarena in recent seasons, and still managed to develop a farm system that Keith Law ranked No. 1 in baseball this offseason. And that was also despite the M’s graduating a ton of talent to the MLB roster in the past half decade.
Despite not making big free agent moves this offseason, the M’s did support their roster with some huge trade deadline moves, lengthening the lineup with Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, as well as building bullpen depth, something they’ve also added to with guys getting healthy and converting starting pitching.
The results weren’t necessarily there yet as of September 6. They’d been really struggling on the road specifically, bouncing back and forth between great homestands and devastating road trips. As of September 6, they were 1-6 to open a road trip, but they did win the final two games before returning home September 8. They went 7-0 on that homestand, then went 2-1 in Kansas City before heading to Houston to play the hated Astros.
Their hot streak had pulled them into a tie entering a series most of us in Seattle have had circled basically all year. The last series we played Houston was the first one out of the All-Star Break, and after winning two of three in that one, we were tied with them in the season series, with the tiebreaker in MLB being head-to-head results if you finish the season with the same W-L record. We knew that final series in Houston was going to determine that tiebreaker, and we have thought a lot about those tiebreakers in recent years as we’ve been right near making or missing the playoffs by a game or two each year.
As it turned out, when we got to that all-important series, our records were tied. Whoever won the series would take at least a one-game lead, and also get the season tiebreaker, so an effective two-game lead with six games to play. We had struggled on the road — even winning two of three in Kansas City and the final two on the previous road trip, we’d gone just 10-18 on the road after the All-Star Break, finishing with a losing record in each of the second half road trips.
We swept them over the weekend. One of the things about not making the playoffs for over 20 years, and then the only year you make it is as a wild card, is that you haven’t won your division in what is now 24 years. I literally have a kid that is the same age, 14, as I was the year the 2001 Mariners won the division. At that time, I’d been a huge Mariners’ fan my whole life, rooting on Ken Griffey, Jr. and company through the 1990s on a crazy fun roster that unfortunately never won the World Series. Then most of those guys from the core of that ‘90s team were all gone (Griffey, Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez) except for 38-year-old Edgar Martinez and 36-year-old Jay Buhner, but we had this new 27-year-old Japanese rookie sensation Ichiro Suzuki, and we won 116 games to tie the MLB record.
It felt like we were first of all going to win the World Series that year, and secondly were about to start another new dynasty. Instead, we lost in the ALCS again, for the third time in seven years, and then our division got super hard in an era with fewer wild card teams so we failed to make the playoffs entirely the next two years despite 93 wins both times, and then we just went another 20 years failing to do so. That 116-win team was the last time we were in the playoffs, before 2022, with rebuild after rebuild failing, and me missing basically all my teens, 20s, and the first half of my 30s never getting to watch my favorite team play one single solitary playoff game. Those are prime rooting years!
But it does seem very likely we’ll win the division here in 2025. And in baseball, the top two division winners get byes, while the third one in each league has to play a wild card series. We looked headed for that even if we won our division, but in a crazy twist, the Tigers have lost 9-of-10 while the Mariners have been on this run of winning 14-of-15, which has brought Seattle two games ahead of Detroit, and we do hold that tiebreaker as well. So Seattle now sits in the No. 2 seed, and we’ve come from way behind to where it seems very probable that we’ll be bypassing the wild card round and then hosting the ALDS.
Here’s Fangraphs’ chart of our odds to win the division, which was at 22.9% on September 6 despite Fangraphs having a really strong rest-of-season projection for our wins and losses in their model at all points since the All-Star Break (I’d been clinging to that when things were looking bleak).
This is just the odds to win the division, but our odds to get the No. 2 seed and skip the wild card series would have been significantly lower (they don’t have a graph for that). On that September 6 date, we were 3.5 games behind the Astros, but also 7.5 behind the Tigers. It’s been a crazy run.
And because the analytics love our roster with a really strong starting pitching staff, we’ve actually moved to the best odds to win the American League in the betting markets. This is a very different situation from 2022, where we were just happy to be here. It’s a much better team. I know all too well that guarantees nothing, and how easy it is for this whole era of Mariners baseball to potentially miss out on reaching its ceiling. So I’m really trying to enjoy it now.
I’m taking the wife and kids Thursday night to a home game that seems like it has a decent shot to be the division clincher. I’ll also be trying to find my way to as many playoff games as possible (we only got one home game in 2022, an 18-inning marathon I was at and loved every second of, until of course it ended in a 1-0 loss). Those are a lock to be impossible tickets to get in a city starved for this.
Anyway, all this doesn’t mean a whole lot to you guys, unless you’re Mariners fans, or maybe find baseball pretty interesting, as I do. But I’m pretty fixated on it, and probably will be for the next few weeks, so I figured I’d share!
Alright, let’s get to the games this week. Fortunately, I’ve already covered a ton of the relevant players in the other introduction. I’ve also written a massive amount in the intros, and spent too much of later last week still writing, such that it’s one of those weeks where getting through the games feels pretty daunting. Going to try to do it quickly. Fortunately, several games sucked.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Jay (follow Jay on Twitter at FFCoder or check out his Daily Dynasties site), but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, and the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Bills 31, Dolphins 21
Key Stat: Josh Allen — 4.0 aDOT, 111 total air yards
Despite calls for Mike McDaniel’s head, and reporting he’d lost the locker room, the Dolphins had a good plan and played hard in this one, sticking around until a late Tua Tagovailoa interception. Most of the discussion after seemed to acknowledge the loss wasn’t on the coach, though the team fell to 0-3 and at a point it doesn’t really matter. McDaniel seems very unlikely to still be the coach after Tua’s time in Miami is up. His contract makes it unlikely for that to happen until after 2026 anyway.
Buffalo won this game through short passing and James Cook (19-108-1, 3-3-10) on the ground. Cook continues to hit for big plays on an almost weekly basis, and had a whopping 8 MTFs and +43 RYOE here. One specific note I had was the gap between him and Ray Davis (1-0-0) from a talent perspective just feels massive. Davis hardly played, and never touched the ball but was targeted on a pass early. He’s a guy I cut where I had him, and I’m not really worried about getting him back, though I didn’t have him in deeper leagues like FFPC formats, just in I think one normal home league and one guillotine league.
Dalton Kincaid (6-5-66-1) had a nice day, but was still at just 56% routes. He could have had a second TD twice, as he dropped a dime from Josh Allen on a wheel route — where there was pretty good coverage, it does need to be said — and then he later caught a 19-yard pass down to the 1-yard line. The rotational nature of the routes is tough, and he doesn’t really have huge stat lines outside the TD equity so far, but I guess I’d say we’re seeing a degree of the focal point usage I’d hoped for when I was on this play last year. He’s clearly healthier here in 2025, and looks good. But the routes never consolidated last year, and aren’t now, so that doesn’t really work for fantasy.
Allen basically didn’t push the ball downfield at all in this game, so Keon Coleman (4-3-20) and Josh Palmer (1-1-5) types didn’t get there. Khalil Shakir (4-4-45-1) had a late TD, though earlier on he felt almost like a decoy. I added him and started him in a league where he was cut, and I felt like that was a bad call for most of this game, and felt like I got bailed out, to put into context how the production felt.
De’Von Achane (12-62, 9-7-29) ran well again, and gets a ton of receptions, so while this offense obviously isn’t hitting a ceiling, you’re seeing how strong the floor of his usage can be. He’s a huge part of their offense, although Ollie Gordon (9-38-1) got 2 of 3 green zone rushes and converted one of the short ones for a first-quarter TD. Achane still winds up with 8 HVTs here, and he got a later rush from the 7-yard line, so it’s not like he has zero potential to touch the ball in close.
In a game where Jaylen Waddle (6-5-39-1) came in questionable and felt like he wasn’t very involved for most of the night, Tyreek Hill (10-5-49-1) saw a ton of volume, but struggled to find the deep connections with Tua. His 148 air yards and 0.96 WOPR speak to there being big play potential, but he only amassed a 4.9 YPT on the 10 targets.
Malik Washington (5-3-12, 2-20) continued to have a decent ancillary role, as far as how that goes in this offense, and remains a hold where you can afford it because of how things can concentrate in this offense, and what his usage means for what type of role could materialize for him. If you do need to cut him, or are in a shallow league, he’s a watch list guy where you know you can probably go get him with an aggressive bid if something materializes.
Signal: James Cook — 8 MTFs, +43 RYOE (one of the top pure rushers in the game right now); Ollie Gordon — 2 of 3 green zone rushes (converted one for a TD); De’Von Achane — 8 HVTs despite ceding some green zone work (still got a green zone touch, really strong receiving role)
Noise: Josh Allen — 4.0 aDOT, 111 air yards (maybe a matchup thing, but obviously we expect more downfield passing, though it’s also a warning about how this offense can sometimes get pretty boring); Tyreek Hill — 4.9 YPT, 49 yards (148 air yards, 0.96 WOPR)
Panthers 30, Falcons 0
Key Stat: Panthers — 55 plays, 24 passes, 224 total yards (Falcons — 3 turnovers)
In Atlanta’s Week 2 win in Minnesota, I wrote about how the Falcons were never threatened by the Vikings. They were on the other side of a similar situation here, where the Panthers looked solid, but they didn’t go out and dominate this game en route to a 30-0 victory. The Falcons just lost this game offensively more than the Panthers won it, and Carolina got points off turnovers, including a really bad pick-six from Michael Penix. In fact, the Panthers finished with just 224 total yards.
Chuba Hubbard (17-73, 3-2-3) had a solid game, and then Rico Dowdle (10-30-1, 1-1-8) got 3 green zone touches, all on the same fourth-quarter drive in a 20-0 game, and converted the TD. Dowdle continues to look like the replacement-level back he is.
Tetairoa McMillan (8-3-48) looked good despite the inefficient line, seeing a 33% target share and making a couple nice plays. No one else had more than 16 receiving yards on the roster, and McMillan continues to look like the clear No. 1.
The role seems very much there for Jalen Coker whenever he’s ready to go, and he’s a high watch list guy right now. Hunter Renfrow (4-2-6) and co. are not good ancillary receivers after McMillan. Ja’Tavion Sanders (2-2-11) was quiet. This Brycen Tremayne (2-2-15) dude had a couple catches early and has looked half decent, but mostly because of what he’s naturally compared to in this passing game. He also only ran 19% routes, and has just a bit role, but has made a couple plays each of the last two games, which to me says this team needs people to step up in the passing game. Renfrow obviously had the two TDs in Week 2, but had just 48 yards on 9 targets, and for the year has now turned 19 targets into 65 yards for a putrid 3.4 YPT. Xavier Legette, who sat in this one, has been significantly worse, turning 15 targets into 8 (eight) yards, for a 0.5 YPT. Those are the two guys who are second and third on the team in targets, with Sanders and Hubbard tied for fourth at 14 apiece, and both being meaningfully better than that, if still below average.
Despite the blowout loss, Bijan Robinson (13-72, 6-5-39) continued to look like this is a year he’ll compete to lead the league in rushing. Tyler Allgeier (1-4, 2-1-0) had a tough situation of being squeezed early by the team smartly making sure to get the ball to Bijan as much as possible, and then giving way to No. 3 back Nathan Carter (7-46) for garbage time late.
Darnell Mooney (11-4-44), Drake London (8-5-55), and Kyle Pitts (6-4-39) easily led in targets, but the production wasn’t there in a game where Michael Penix struggled to 4.8 yards per attempt, easily his lowest in his six career starts, by more than a yard and a half. I sometimes note when I’ve written something before something happens in the game because I think there’s value in emphasizing what the take was based on when something later then confirms my position, and I have a note that I had written, “Penix can really spin it, and he’s a fantasy-friendly QB, but it’s not quite there right now,” and then in parenthesis added “I wrote this before a pick-six that was clearly on Penix where he was trying to get to his outlet but was read like a book.” I don’t have a strong read on what the overall issue here was, but the throws were not where they needed to be.
Ray-Ray McCloud (5-2-20) got more involved as well, as Charlie Woerner (1-1-(-5)) had missed two practices last week and only played 14 snaps. A week after playing alongside Woerner, Pitts got heavy usage again, mostly as the TE in Woerner’s absence. The common theme here seems to be a real commitment to a lot of Pitts snaps.
Signal: Tetairoa McMillan — 33% target share, 0.88 WOPR, clear No. 1 in low-volume game; Jalen Coker — plenty of opportunity to step into real No. 2 role with Hunter Renfrow (3.4 YPT on 19 targets), Xavier Legette (0.5 YPT on 15 targets), and others not stepping up
Noise: Rico Dowdle — 3 of 4 green zone touches (all on the same fourth-quarter drive, in a 20-0 game); Michael Penix — 4.8 yards per attempt (previous career low in five other starts: 6.4)