Stealing Signals, Week 3, Part 2
Late games, weekly recap, HVT, PROE charts
I don’t love to feel like I’m repeating concepts, but I’m very much a flow writer, and I work off the things I see and the things that are giving me ideas. I need a muse.
And the theme of the early part of this season, for me, has just so clearly been the unchecked certainty of huge swaths of the fantasy community. We’re still so early.
Rather than write a ton of theory in this intro, I went over to the the RotoViz Screener to look at where we were through three weeks last year to give some concrete examples.
In Week 3 last year, Marquise Brown had 14 catches on 17 targets in his third game with the Cardinals; he’d continue to earn volume until DeAndre Hopkins returned, but then he got banged up and didn’t even remotely approach the same volume levels once he returned later in the year.
Mark Andrews had back-to-back 25-point PPR games in Weeks 2 and 3 last year, and looked like an absolute no-doubt league-winning TE. After Week 3, Lamar Jackson had 10 passing TDs with 2 INTs, and also two 100-yard rushing games with a TD in each for back-to-back 40-point fantasy days in Weeks 2 and 3, and was comfortably the QB1. Andrews had two more 20-point games in Weeks 5 and 6, then hit 10 PPR points just once from Week 7 through Week 16 (and that was only a 12.3-point game). Jackson wouldn’t show even 30-point ceiling the rest of the year, and would eventually get hurt.
Curtis Samuel had target numbers of 11, 9, and 10 in his first three games, and was leading the Washington passing game in volume. Those would be his three highest target numbers for the season; he was especially lightly used in the second half, and a QB switch away from Carson Wentz might have been the culprit here.
Cooper Kupp was the WR2 behind only Stefon Diggs. Kupp would obviously get injured, but that dramatically impacted the 2022 landscape.
Joe Burrow had already posted one 4-INT game, and a separate game that would go down as his worst fantasy output until Week 18. He would bounce back to finish QB4 for the season.
Justin Fields had not thrown more than 17 passes in a game, or for more than 121 yards, and was averaging about 13 fantasy points per game, depending on scoring system. He’d sit below 20 points in both Weeks 4 and 5 as well, but then go for 22+ in eight straight games, including over 40 twice, to eventually finish QB6 in points per game.
The RB stuff is all so wild, and I didn’t want to just make it about that position, but through Week 3 last year, James Robinson was the PPR RB3, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the RB4, D’Andre Swift was the RB5, and Cordarrelle Patterson was the RB7. None of those guys finished in the top 20 of RB points, despite getting out to sizable early leads. Even crazier, none of them — four of the top seven RBs in fantasy scoring through three weeks — finished as the top-scoring RB on their own NFL teams.
Josh Jacobs had PPR totals of 8.3, 9.1, and 14.7. You very likely could have traded CEH for Jacobs after Week 3. Jacobs would rattle off three straight 30-point games in Weeks 4, 5, and 6, and eventually finish RB3.
Austin Ekeler had PPR totals of 11.2, 18.4, and 13.3. He’d rattle off five straight games of 24+ PPR points, and eventually finish RB1.
Derrick Henry had started with games of 8.2 and 8.5, before 25.3 in Week 3. Weeks 1 and 2 would be his two lowest scores until Week 13, and he would eventually finish RB4.
Rhamondre Stevenson had started with games of 4.7 and 6.1, before 20.1 in Week 3. He wouldn’t score in the single digits again until Week 14, and would go on to finish RB8.
Tony Pollard had started with games of 4.2, 19.8, and 10.5, but then went for 1.8 in Week 4. He would have his first major eruption in Week 8, but then stick with a more consistent role, rattling off 20+ PPR points in five of six games from Week 8 through Week 14, his only 20+ games of the year. He’d finish RB9.
Jonathan Taylor was struggling a little bit, but he was sitting at RB10 in scoring thanks to having already posted what would be his highest single-game total of the season (27.5 points in Week 1). Instead of turning around for one of fantasy’s top picks last year, it would get worse, in part due to injury.
Joe Mixon had started with games of 21.5, 11.3, and 6.8. He was a major buy low target for many based on his expected points, and while he did eventually have a 55.1-point game (meaning his inclusion here is definitely questionable), he would also fail to hit 20 points in any other game from Week 4 through the end of the regular season (the inefficiency he’d shown largely stuck with him, except that one eruption spot).
We could do this all day. The thing about this list is it is in no way comprehensive — I did this very quickly.
At the same time, Jalen Hurts was already smashing and the Eagles looked sweet, Kyle Pitts was already being called the biggest bust in fantasy football, rookie Skyy Moore was struggling to earn reps, and many of the trends that would be big storylines by the end of the year were already poking through the surface. I’m not saying everything we’ve seen so far is Noise.
But it’s just so evident that in a lot of those situations — like the Josh Jacobs one — the first three games were the least important, as the team was figuring out how to go about things. The Fields one is also fascinating relative to where he’s at right now in 2023, especially as I always love to point out the compounding effect of things over multiple years, where I’m definitely not saying he’ll turn it around again because this is now a third year with real struggles. The sample gets larger.
I’ve written about the primacy effect before, and how we place way too much weight on the first few weeks because they are the first in a sample. Observers want everything to be decided; they want every content creator to take their Ls (or claim victories); there’s an aggressive amount of certainty right now, relative to the known reality that the NFL is chaos and things will shift again soon enough.
It’s probably a boomer take, but I think maybe it’s a societal thing, just not really in the way that implies. There are a ton of benefits to a concept we’ve discussed before and referred to as a “bias toward action,” and that might be what drives the whole idea about younger generations having shorter attention spans. In other words, having technology at your fingertips does obviously mean rapid responses, which allows for more iteration on what works, and learning from experience in that tacit knowledge way. And the endpoint is accepting realities and acting on them — always moving forward — because of the benefits of that bias toward action, rather than sitting and waiting, and being late on a trend. What I’m saying is it’s tired to be like, “those zoomers have short attention spans” but it’s maybe wired to be like, “there’s some truth to that, but only because there’s value to that, and to constant iteration, and they are learning those lessons first hand.”
But I do think in fantasy football it runs up against the idea of essentially p-hacking, which when I Google that to make sure I’m using the term right, the first response calls it “an exploitation of data analysis in order to discover patterns which would be presented as statistically significant, when in reality, there is no underlying effect,” and presents “data butchery” as one of the alternate names, which is a fun term. And I’m not just blaming young people, to be clear, but there’s definitely a lack of experience with the calls for victory laps and Ls after three weeks of a fantasy football season. There’s a ton of, “Will you just stop talking about X?” and “Will you just admit Y?” and I mean you look at that list above and it’s just so dumb.
Over time, I legitimately don’t understand how we’re here every year, where the response to how wrong everyone was about stuff in August is to think that the stuff in Weeks 1-3 is now gospel instead of recognizing that we’re going to be wrong again. One logical response to that list above — given the article you’re reading — might be to wonder whether I was right on the “Signal” or “Noise” for those shifts, and the answer is I’m proud to have been directionally accurate on a few of those, but no, absolutely not, I did not accurately predict those complete 180s.
As much as I do personally struggle with the reality of my job where I’m going to be publicly wrong, over and over, from a strategy perspective with my own teams, and in the content I put out, I very much understand that’s the deal. I’m going to be wrong; we all are. My goal is not to be right all the time; it’s instead twofold: 1) to be wrong less than others, and 2) to emphasize the impact of the decisions I’m advising such that when we’re right, the payoff is adequate to have justified the risk. That’s the whole game.
So no, I’m not going to stop talking about Kyle Pitts, because I legitimately believe there’s still potential for him to string together a run of production that is right there at the top of the position. Cole Kmet finished TE8 last year in that terrible Chicago passing offense thanks largely to two 20-point games in Weeks 9 and 10. Pitts was arguably one good throw away from hitting that this week, and there’s still a world where Pitts strings together production.
I’m not just choosing players willy nilly. If Pitts didn’t have TE eligibility, I’d be out. If he wasn’t still a size/speed freak who just got open for a 40-yard bomb this past week, I’d be out. But there’s a reason we stick on the guys we stick on. Pitts was a three-year early declare true WR breakout (meaning 30%+ Dominator Rating, which most TEs don’t get to and we kind of need a different production scale in a lot of cases for their college work) who posted a 1,000-yard season in his age-21 year. He has since posted 13 games of poor play (10 last year, three this year) that have people certain it’s over for him and I’m an idiot for hanging on. And I’m not even hanging on that much! But I still get Pitts comments all the time!
And hell yes it’s OK to be emotional about it, where you’re just done with him (but you know it’s irrational). I’m writing most of this about Pitts because he’s the one of all the potential bounce backs where I’m like, “This isn’t going to bounce back,” and yet that’s exactly what makes him the perfect example to dissect, because when you really do step back and look at the long view, it’s pretty clear we’re in a super short-term bubble and Pitts is going to rise again, at some point. This dude is literally still just 22 years old; he’ll turn 23 next month. Luke Musgrave and Dalton Kincaid are older than him, and he posted a 1,000-yard NFL season while they were still trying to get on the field at the college level, and to some people he’s already a bust that you have to cut for them because they might be the next great TEs.
Again, this is not about Pitts. He’s just always a great example. I don’t know why Rashaad Penny comes to mind, but that’s a dude where I held out hope as a potential talent-based play for multiple years beyond when people said he’d never stay healthy, and then he put together a string of games in late 2021 that legitimately won leagues. He was completely free to pick up that season. In every league. People in this community love to say “everyone” or “no one” believed something, but Penny was legit off the map in almost “every” league at points that year.
The point is I’m going to keep giving you what I believe to be right play, given current costs. And in some cases, we need to just zoom out and look at what I’ve always called “the long view.” There’s some troubling stuff with Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s usage, but this dude was a superstar prospect who crushed the combine, training camp, and the preseason, then broke his wrist, and has started slowly while wearing a wrap/soft cast around his wrist. People are losing it about the early production of an elite prospect who plays a position entirely based around catching footballs that has played with a cast, when we know rookie production tends to spike late season anyway.
Might JSN never hit this year? Of course! But if he does hit, he has a much better shot to break fantasy football than his cost at any point dictated. Some of you are in shallow leagues where people are cutting him. My biggest regret this week is telling people they could cut Quentin Johnston in shallow leagues to churn RBs for a couple weeks because I felt there was a good probability they could get him back in a couple weeks. Now obviously the Mike Williams injury was just crazy timing, and also there’s a shot QJ never hits! But you want to be in on that bet right now. Players that have started slow and then gone on to post insane second halves have overwhelmingly matched these types of profiles.
And again, I’m not even really discussing running backs, but the victory laps there, and on any veterans who have started hot, are all so laughable. We literally talk all offseason about how projections and those things focus too much on Week 1 expectations, and then after a couple early-season weeks, we overreact to outcomes that were more or less expected.
When you look at the names in the list above that saw things shift after Week 3 last year, keep in mind I can’t tell you what is going to change, because again no one can, except the people who love to claim they could in hindsight. But as a blanket statement: veterans who have produced at a high level so far are good bets to not sustain that production, while youngsters who haven’t done much can still grow into roles.
As always, the one thing I am certain of is change. It’s a big reason a ton of my Bold Predictions this year included qualifiers like “…after Week 5.” We expected some things to take time! You have to let it, as much as it’s difficult when you’re 1-2 or even 0-3. Making bad trades or impulsive drops doesn’t fix that. And I know we’ve discussed all this before, and I have a sharp audience that understands predicting this stuff is an inexact science, and I’m preaching to the choir, so I apologize for the redundancy. But I truly do think this is the most impactful thing I can be driving home right now.
Couple other quick things. First, I got asked a couple times about Eric Bieniemy and the TE target rate for Washington, and I just still think that’s a small sample where it’s notable but won’t stick to that degree with those TEs and those WRs.
The other thing before we get to Week 3, I also want to real quick share a chart, stolen from this Tweet by ESPN’s Seth Walder.
I loved what Sam Hoppen noted about it, which is those four coaches from The Playcallers all sit up there in the upper right with the most motion on pass attempts. And then the Chargers and Lions, with Kellen Moore and Ben Johnson, also contend with them in terms of motion on rush attempts and overall motion. (It pains me to note Arthur Smith looks good here as well.)
But the thing I want to call even more attention to is the giant mass of all the other teams. What are you guys doing? Stealing Signals and Stealing Bananas have been emphasizing the importance of motion and misdirection and play action for like two or three years now. I feel like it’s super old news and I haven’t even discussed it much this year as a result, and then I see a chart like this and realize it’s still this hack that only a handful of teams are utilizing and they are obviously seeing results from it. And it’s all younger, innovative coaches, which is another thing we’ve been talking about for years, and I always reference Frank DuPont aka the Fantasy Douche wrote about this in his book Game Plan, which was first published in 2012.
There’s progress, but man is it slow.
Let’s close out Week 3. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Seahawks 37, Panthers 27
Key Stat: Panthers — +7.1% PROE, 82.7% actual pass rate, 58 passes (most in 2023)
I’m not gonna lie, I don’t have a ton of notes for this game, and I’m not really regretting that given I keep seeing stuff about how well Andy Dalton played and why Adam Thielen (14-11-145-1) deserves respect. And I mean Thielen put up a strong stat line, obviously, but he’s sort of the poster boy for the “take your L” idea where, like, I still wouldn’t want him on any of my teams going forward, so I’m not sure what the point of that is. While he’s earned a ton of volume over the past two weeks since struggling in Week 1, he’s still a 33-year-old WR on a team looking to the future, so there’s just a lot of risk he fades throughout the season, and I’m not really sure what the ceiling is outside games like this one where he compiles targets. For what it’s worth, Carolina had the highest pass rate in the NFL in Week 3, posting a +7.1% PROE in a negative script (with a high expected pass rate) en route to Dalton throwing a whopping 58 passes, the most pass attempts by any team in a game this season. Also, rookie Jonathan Mingo (6-3-21) left this one early due to a concussion. But I will say — Thielen still having enough in the tank to earn work at a decent rate (24% target share, 24% TPRR) over weak competition was at least mildly surprising in the sense that it wasn’t a guarantee, and that does make him a viable short-term option if you’re in a league where he’s free to add.
DJ Chark (11-4-86-1) actually matched Thielen’s WOPR at 0.55, which is a good use of WOPR in the sense that it normalizes Thielen’s 14 targets relative to the high team volume and his low aDOT. Chark’s 11 targets were also inflated, and came at a higher aDOT, where he did hit for a 47-yard TD. Meanwhile, Terrace Marshall (8-5-35) also earned plenty of volume — all of these guys were pretty close in terms of targets per route, with Mingo actually being well ahead of the pack there given he only ran routes on 29% of dropbacks and had a 33% TPRR. Hayden Hurst (3-1-11) only seeing three targets in this setting was a pretty grim sign.
The Panthers only totaled 14 team rush attempts, but Miles Sanders (9-24-1, 9-5-38) also benefitted from the team pass volume to the tune of 9 targets. He was wildly inefficient, though, and I’d like to call his 3.4 YPT so far “Noise,” except it’s actually higher than his YPT last year, and not far below his three-year average of 3.9 from 2020-2022 (RB average is typically around 6.0). He might just be a really inefficient player in the passing game. Chuba Hubbard (1-2, 3-2-2) took a back seat in this one but remains the clear No. 2.
While this game picked up late, part of why I don’t have a ton of notes is the first half featured six field goals. But one of my limited notes was Kenneth Walker (18-97-2, 3-3-59) looked great again, and he notched two second-half touchdowns to help Seattle pull away. Walker had 7 HVTs and 4 green zone touches, converting two of them. That’s back-to-back games with multiple rushing TDs, and likely a firmer hold on that work over Zach Charbonnet (9-46, 2-1-(-1)), who actually played 44% snaps and ran 41% routes (far more than Walker’s 26%). Charbonnet’s role seems like it could grow, but a difference between the two right now is the team seems to be prioritizing Walker getting his touches when he’s out there (a little like the split in Washington, to draw a comparison).
D.K. Metcalf (8-6-112) and Tyler Lockett (7-3-34) dominated the volume again, with Metcalf showing more efficiency this week. As I noted in the intro, have patience with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3-1-10).
Even with Will Dissly out, Noah Fant (5-4-41) and Colby Parkinson (4-3-38) split the TE routes almost exactly 50/50, which is annoying for everyone.
Signal: Kenneth Walker — 7 HVTs, 4 green zone touches, 2 more rush TDs, giving up some snaps and especially routes to Zach Charbonnet, but Seattle continues to prioritize getting Walker touches when he’s out there
Noise: Jaxon Smith-Njigba — slow start (not uncommon for rookies, also is still rehabbing with a wrap on his wrist, absolutely worth giving him time with his profile); Panthers — 58 pass attempts (most in NFL this year, Adam Thielen’s 14 targets, DJ Chark’s 11, Miles Sanders’ 9 all inflated)
Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16
Key Stat: Tony Pollard — 9.3 HVTs per game (leads NFL by 3.7 per game among RBs who have played at least two games)
This was I think pretty clearly the biggest upset of the young season, after the Cowboys looked like they’d joined the ranks of last year’s big five contenders (Miami has actually joined this group, as well). It turns out that maybe that was a little premature — duped by Mike McCarthy once again! — and maybe the 40-0 win over the Giants was just because the Giants are actually pretty bad, and the 30-10 win over the Jets was just because the Jets with Zach Wilson are pretty bad, too. The Cardinals went with a -9.1% PROE, throwing just 21 times, and winning despite running just 53 offensive plays. The Cowboys meanwhile finished with a -8.2% PROE, calling passes on just 60% of plays and shortening the game with long drives despite trailing throughout. They ultimately got just eight drives for the entire game, playing right into the Cardinals’ goal as underdogs of shortening the game.
James Conner (14-98-1, 2-2-18) had a nice day, and continues to dominate the RB work. Rondale Moore (3-54-1, 6-4-8) actually had the explosive play out of the backfield when he took a second-quarter handoff from a shotgun alignment to the house for a 45-yard TD run, but other than that Conner was the main guy, including on all three RB green zone touches.
Marquise Brown (7-5-61-1) dominated the targets, and with the low volume, his 0.91 WOPR was fourth highest in Week 3. WOPR is an interesting stat and I use it so much mostly because it’s a great way to normalize what we’re already looking at, which is the box score data. But I wouldn’t argue Brown’s 7 targets were more valuable than Adam Thielen’s 14, which I covered in the prior game, simply because his WOPR was 0.91 to Thielen’s 0.55. Instead, we’re looking at it through the lens of Brown’s 7 targets being a strong 7 targets, and Thielen’s 14 looking like a fragile 14.
Zach Ertz (2-2-6) only had two targets and 6 yards, which means for one week, until he has 12 targets next week, I was right on him all along. He did see his routes dip to 67%, down from 94% in Week 1 and 75% in Week 2.
Though I noted the Cowboys’ pass rate was fairly low for their trail script, they did wind up running 75 plays, and Dak Prescott threw 40 times. CeeDee Lamb (7-4-53) didn’t separate in this one, as Brandin Cooks (7-2-17), Michael Gallup (7-6-92), and Jake Ferguson (7-5-48) all matched him with 7 targets to lead the team. Ferguson’s routes were back up to a season-high 64% of dropbacks, which is still not a great range necessarily, and each of the other TEs both saw a target. Still, if you take his first three games in sum, you have to be pleased with 18 targets and a lead of the TE routes each week.
Tony Pollard (23-112, 3-3-(-1)) dominated work again, and got three green zone touches, but continues to struggle to find paydirt, and Rico Dowdle (4-21, 3-3-25-1) did score on a 15-yard pass from Prescott. As you’ll see in the HVT section below, Pollard’s role is just massive right now, way beyond anyone else at the position in terms of HVTs. His 87% snaps and 82% routes indicate he’s a buy if anything.
Signal: Marquise Brown — 0.91 WOPR (third highest in Week 3); Zach Ertz — routes down to 67% after 94% in Week 1 and 75% in Week 2; Jake Ferguson — routes up to a season-high 64%, 7 more targets (18 through three weeks, looks like the clear routes leader at the position, but not necessarily full time); Tony Pollard — 87% snaps, 82% routes, 6 more HVTs, 3 more green zone touches (possible buy if acquirable)
Noise: Cardinals — 21 pass attempts (fewest in Week 3, likely won’t lead a lot)
Chiefs 41, Bears 10
Key Stat: Rashee Rice — season-high 51% routes, 7 targets (36% TPRR for the season)