Stealing Signals, Week 4, Part 1
The Signal and Noise from TNF, London, and early Sunday games
I really appreciate all the well wishes after Saturday’s post. Those of you who listen to the pods will have heard me this morning on Stealing Bananas, and probably already know I’m doing great. The symptoms played out pretty perfectly for my work schedule, where Saturday was a little rough, but I didn’t have much to do that evening so I just rode it out, and then the worst of it passed by Sunday morning.
We have 11 games to cover today, so just some quick notes in terms of an intro. Over the first few weeks, I’ve been sort of breaking down what I think these offenses are, but as I’m doing some preliminary passes this week, I’m seeing a couple interesting things. First, some offenses are starting to concentrate, which is good to see. That was something I hit on in my Part 2 introduction last week talking through how different the first few weeks might look from the rest of the year, where NFL teams often don’t even know what they have in the first few games.
The second thing is the notes I’m finding interesting relate to what we’ve already come to know. We’re reaching the point where I’m starting to see things that are shifts as opposed to being the early-season look at how the team views the depth chart.
A couple examples: Sean Tucker had looked like Tampa’s No. 2, but he was active and didn’t play an offensive snap in Week 4, and they go into their bye looking like they’ve moved to Ke’Shawn Vaughn as their backup. Another is Dalton Schultz playing about half the snaps, and seeing that his snap share has gone from 81% to 71% to 68% to 49% from Week 1 to Week 4. I didn’t see an injury there and he actually caught a fourth-quarter TD; it just looks like he’s a part-time guy in a TE rotation now.
Those types of nuggets are helpful in deeper leagues and as you’re churning the back end of your roster, which is so much of where the value lies at this point. There’s only so much you can actually do with the top of your roster at this stage — we can talk buy lows and sell highs until the cows come home, but if the person in your league that has the trade target isn’t a willing trade partner, you’re stuck — but optimizing the bottom third is essential. Tampa’s RB situation continues to bear monitoring (because Rachaad White continues to struggle), but it’s safe to say you shouldn’t use a roster spot holding a guy like Tucker through a bye week at this point. In most cases, you should use that roster spot to take a shot on some other RB, and that kind of thing can make a real impact when it hits.
Let’s get to the Week 4 games. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
Lions 34, Packers 20
Key Stat: David Montgomery — 8 green zone touches (most by any RB this season)
The Lions have shown a tendency toward the run so far in 2023, and they kept that rolling in Week 4. Their 43 rushes were most by any team this week, through Sunday, and are tied for fourth most so far this season. Despite an expected pass rate below 50% — a pretty rare occurrence that has only happened six times all year — they still posted a PROE of -7.2%, which is to say their actual pass rate was way down at 42.5%. And they are finding a lot of success with this right now, having invested in their offensive line and the RB position, so it’s not something I’d expect to change anytime soon.
That’s not been ideal for the passing weapons. Sam LaPorta (5-4-56) was the first-half star in this one, looking every bit like his “Baby Kittle” nickname while generating 31 yards after the catch. He would go untargeted in a run-heavy second half. Amon-Ra St. Brown (7-5-56-1) found paydirt on a sick double move that got the defensive back trying to jump a curl route, but he also didn’t see the volume we would have liked. ARSB has both been a clear hit — he’s pacing for a 110-1407-8 season — and something of a disappointment, because with even a neutral team pass rate, the league-winning ceiling would be coming in.
Josh Reynolds (6-3-69) had another decent game, which is more of a storyline for how it impacts the recently-unsuspended Jameson Williams. Dan Campbell’s comments on Williams throughout the offseason have not been promising, and his comments this week weren’t great either, with reports already indicating they don’t expect him to be an every-down guy but rather a role-player. And yet, we’re still talking about a guy who went top 10 in the NFL draft, with a potentially elite skill set at its peak, who is clearly part of the “best version” of Detroit’s offense. Williams is very much worth a stash even as it will clearly take a few weeks to trust him. My thought on him being eligible to return Week 5 instead of Week 7 is not that we will use him right away, but more like it gives him two more weeks to ramp up his usage and/or make an impact before their Week 9 bye, with the hope that he’s done enough by that point that we have a potential difference-maker in Week 10 and beyond.
In some respects, the split between David Montgomery (32-121-3, 2-2-20) and Jahmyr Gibbs (8-40, 5-4-11) has been a great example of the types of things you might expect to change from early season to late season, as I talked about last week. But in other respects, this is different, because Gibbs was the one drafted significantly higher in fantasy, and the immediate role that was implied by that simply has not been there, particularly in the passing game. Having said that, the Lions do continue to generate plenty of Team HVT, and the big note for this game was simply that Montgomery has such a hold on green zone touches that he got 8 to Gibbs’ 0 here. I do think Gibbs’ role expands from here, but there’s a reason Montgomery was also a “Target” in my August rankings.
While the final score was 34-20, the Packers were down 27-3 at half, and had 23 total yards and just three first downs at the break. They did come out and look like they wanted to put up a second-half fight, which is more than you can say for some NFL teams that roll over in these spots.
Christian Watson (4-2-25-1) had no catches at half, and ultimately played a limited role in the blowout, but did find the end zone in the second half. Romeo Doubs (13-9-95) had three receptions in the first half, but really racked up his production in garbage time. Jayden Reed (5-3-55) was also catchless in the first half before a decent second half. Luke Musgrave (1-1-1) was unfortunately concussed before halftime.
AJ Dillon (5-11, 1-0-0) continued to underwhelm, while Aaron Jones (5-18, 2-1-(-4)) wasn’t pushed in his first game back from injury. After the 10-day break, expect both Watson (48% routes) and Jones (34% snaps) to be far more involved in Week 5. Jones in particular might be forced into a big workload by Dillon’s struggles.
Signal: David Montgomery — 8 green zone touches to zero for Jahmyr Gibbs (no question who has that valuable 2022 Jamaal Williams role right now)
Noise: Packers — basically everything (23 first-half yards, then 207 in a second half where they trailed by two scores throughout, so nearly all their production and splits were influenced by script and garbage time factors); Christian Watson, Aaron Jones — usage rates in return from multi-week absences plus blowout script (expect sharp increase in Week 5 after 10-day mini-bye)
Jaguars 23, Falcons 7
Key Stat: Christian Kirk — 34% TPRR, 0.88 WOPR (fifth highest in Week 4, through Sunday)
On a week where the Jaguars traveled to another country, they got Travis Etienne (20-55, 3-3-17) 89% of the snaps, and Tank Bigsby (3-10) played 8%. I had a lot of bad calls in the preseason, but this is one of those spots I was trying to push back on the broad narrative, where I get to feel smart. Yes, Bigsby has taken some green zone work, but not all of it — Etienne got the only RB green zone touch here, a third-and-2 carry from the 8-yard line — and Bigsby almost literally hasn’t played otherwise. Etienne’s routes were also under fire in the preseason, and he was at 71% here; he’s now run the second most RB routes in the league, through Sunday of Week 4. That’s a very hilarious victory lap given Etienne really struggled to produce much in this game, and I often use efficiency to predict future usage, so it’s important to keep in mind I’m extremely biased and to never assume I’m anything but, because no football analyst is, and the ones who try the hardest to tell you they are, are usually the biggest snake oil salesmen. (Remember, this edition of Stealing Signals is brought to you by DayQuil, and I will not be held responsible for anything I write.)
With Zay Jones and Jamal Agnew both out, the Jags were extra concentrated in the passing game, but it was Christian Kirk (12-8-84) and Evan Engram (8-7-59) dominating the volume, with Calvin Ridley (2-2-38-1) finding paydirt but only mustering two targets. We’ve talked about how Ridley’s early season could have been interpreted two ways, and the “he’s not the alpha of this group” interpretation appears to be winning out. Kirk had a shot at a touchdown the broadcast pointed out, where he came free on a corner route right as Trevor Lawrence got flushed from the pocket, the opposite direction. He was wide open.
Desmond Ridder had an awful first half, and Twitter was calling for his benching at the half, which of course Arthur Smith isn’t going to do because it’s nice when your QB is taking all the heat and if Taylor Heinicke became the third QB to play terribly in his passing system — that elite receiving prospects are also struggling in — then people might start to really question what it is he actually does other than design a good rushing attack. And we wouldn’t want that.
That’s not to be confused as a defense of Ridder, who really struggled. There was some commentary on the broadcast that Kyle Pitts (4-2-21) still isn’t 100%. I’ve mentioned I think he looks great, and I’d argue the injury sounds a little like an excuse/explanation for his lack of production. I’ll readily admit I might not fully understand the rehab, and I’ve seen some from the Twitter docs that it’s not about straight line speed or those things, but more about change-of-direction, etc. At the same time, I wonder how many Twitter docs watch the games each week versus looking at production dips (which would obviously make sense, but would make it tough to pick out when a player might actually be healthy but have Arthur Smith as his coach). One note I’ll offer is Pitts’ route rate remains much higher this year than pre-injury last year, which we just wouldn’t expect if he was meaningfully far away from 100%.
Drake London (7-3-28-1) found paydirt, but was inefficient, which we can mostly blame the QB for. Jonnu Smith (6-6-95) continues to thrive as the TE, and people were joking on Twitter about Pitts being the TE2 on his own team, but keep in mind Pitts is more or less not a TE. He has lined up out wide (32.2%) more than inline (20.3%) so far this year, while spending most of his time in the slot (47.5%), and if Jonnu impacts Pitts at all, it’s that the high number of snaps they are on the field together frees Pitts up from TE duties. (Everything I have written does nothing to help with Pitts’ 21 receiving yards this week, nor should any of it offer much in the way of optimism. So that’s fun.)
Bijan Robinson (14-105, 5-5-32) continues to look just so freaking good, and the routes remain extremely high. Tyler Allgeier (7-16, 2-1-(-4)) continues to lose work; after 15 and 16 carries in Weeks 1 and 2, he had just 7 in both Weeks 3 and 4. I don’t think I called this particularly well, but I frankly should have, because it’s another great example of a concept I’m constantly talking about, with usage shifting in favor of the young, exciting, productive rookie with draft capital. Cordarrelle Patterson also made his debut in this one, but played just one offensive snap.
Signal: Travis Etienne — 89% snaps, 71% routes even in a game where he struggled (now has second most routes of all NFL RBs); Calvin Ridley — after the big Week 1 where he wasn’t double-covered much, has not been the target alpha of this passing game
Noise: Kyle Pitts — more talk about him vis-a-vis Jonnu Smith, who is a positive impact on Pitts (Pitts is running a career-high rate of routes, and Smith’s presence frees Pitts up to be overwhelmingly in the slot (47.5%) or out wide (32.2%))
Bills 48, Dolphins 20
Key Stat: Tyreek Hill — 0.41 WOPR (ties personal low since Week 1, 2022)
The game of the week lived up to the billing, even if the Bills ultimately pulled away. The first five drives of this game all ended with touchdowns, before the Dolphins were forced to punt on their third possession. Miami would really struggle the rest of the first half, netting zero points from their final four possessions, and Buffalo just would not stop scoring, taking a 31-14 lead into the break. Miami did open the second half with a 75-yard TD drive, but then Buffalo answered with a field goal, got a quick interception, and added a short-field touchdown, to push the game to 41-20. Miami would turn the ball over on downs on each of their three drives after that point, despite gaining 137 yards on those final drives, and they did finish with 393 total yards to Buffalo’s 414. Buffalo clearly won this game, and they were the better team — they scored on eight of their first nine real possessions, and six of those scores were touchdowns — but I think it’s also fair to say a 48-20 scoreline doesn’t do this game justice. I’m already excited for the rematch in Miami, but that unfortunately doesn’t come until Week 18 — which carries with it the potential for rested players — because the NFL’s schedule-makers hate us.
Josh Allen has been fantastic since his Week 1 struggles, and his 320 yards and 4 passing TDs on just 25 attempts here was his best yet. Stefon Diggs (7-6-120-3) was explosive, though his volume wasn’t necessarily dominant. Gabe Davis (3-3-61-1) hit for an early score, but didn’t add a ton else.
The two tight ends continued to be the next two names in routes, although Dawson Knox (1-1-12) fell to 48%, down from rates of 80%, 62%, and then 69% across the season’s first three games. Dalton Kincaid (5-4-27) was up to a season-high 79%, and while he still saw targets at a hyper-low 2.0 aDOT, his 5 looks on 25 pass attempts represented a pretty solid 20% target share. If this usage is a sign of things to come, it could be huge for Kincaid; getting to 80% routes while Knox falls back to the 50% range could be the jumpstart his season needs.
Trent Sherfield (3-2-18) and Deonte Harty (2-2-10) split the additional routes.
James Cook (12-29-1, 1-1-48) got a carry from the 5-yard line, picked up a first down down to the 1-yard line, and crucially stayed on the field for a carry that he converted into a touchdown on the very next play. He would wind up with all three green zone touches for Buffalo in this one, which is not to say that Latavius Murray (4-32, 2-2-24) or Damien Harris (6-29) won’t still be a headache, but rather that it’s not as cut-and-dry as it may have seemed that Cook won’t get goal-line chances. He also made a nice play in the passing game, although it was a bummer to see his routes fall to a season-low 31%, while Murray jumped to a season-high 45%. I’ve (wrongly) questioned the limitations of Murray’s role at all stages, but there’s just no way I am buying Latavius Murray as a consistent 45% routes guy in 2023. That has to be Noise.
It was a bit shocking to see Miami wind up so unconcentrated in this one, with Tyreek Hill (5-3-58, 1-14) tying for his lowest single-game WOPR since joining the Dolphins at 0.41, and Jaylen Waddle (5-4-46) not necessarily being the main player to pick up the slack. Hill actually hit that 0.41 WOPR figure twice before with Miami, but both were in his first five games last year, in Weeks 3 and 5. The Week 3 game was also against Buffalo, but in that one, Waddle dominated with a 0.82 WOPR (Week 5 against the Jets was more like what we saw from Miami this week, where neither Hill or Waddle did much, but Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play in that game, and Teddy Bridgewater was knocked from the game very early). Anyway, the Dolphins’ usage was rare, and I would be remiss not to express some concern the Bills had a defensive blueprint that could be utilized by other teams. But on the flip side, Miami was still very productive on their first two drives of the game, and their first drive of the second half, which when you think about the “first 15” scripted plays idea, and also halftime adjustments, those are the drives you’d point to and feel like they had a little more time to think about what they wanted to do. And that element of it suggests to me that on a lot of the other drives, they were maybe just a little unprepared for some of the looks they were seeing, but that they can find the answers they need, sort of like how they were unprepared for what the Chargers did to them late last year, and then this year they clearly had answers when they played the Chargers again in Week 1.
Waddle did lose a late TD to an ineligible man downfield call, which was annoying if, like me, you have a lot of Waddle.
Braxton Berrios (6-6-43-1, 1-11) and Durham Smythe (4-4-41) were the other guys most heavily targeted. I noted last week that Smythe getting just one reception in a game where they put up 70 was a bad sign, and I’ll reiterate here that these numbers for these two guys in a game where they wound up losing by a lot aren’t necessarily great. Miami clearly does not want to be using these players, but will use them when they have to.
A guy they did want to be using was De’Von Achane (8-101-2, 5-3-19). Raheem Mostert (7-9, 5-3-36) still got the start and most of the early work, and Achane picked up a lot of his snaps later in the game. Mostert didn’t help his cause with two fumbles in this one, but he’s also still probably trusted enough to remain the de facto starter. But there’s clearly enough meat on the bone for Achane, who looked absolutely electric again. His first two touches both went for green zone scores, and he got all three of the team’s RB green zone touches, and then later he got loose for a 55-yard run. Miami’s defining trait is efficiency/explosiveness, and Achane couldn’t be a better fit. I wish I’d seen it better this offseason like so many of the smart people around me, but the fit slaps you in the face when you actually see it on Sundays.
Signal: Dalton Kincaid — season-high 79% routes while Dawson Knox fell to a season-low 48% (previous low was 62%); James Cook — all three of the team’s RB green zone touches (the Signal is not that he’s taken this work over, but rather that he can at least mix in for these touches, which is good enough for now); De’Von Achane — all 3 RB green zone touches, 67% routes, still very involved (and explosive) in follow up to breakout game
Noise: Latavius Murray — season-high 45% routes (James Cook fell to season-low 31%, but this looks like a one-week outlier as Cook had not been below 50% nor Murray above 30% in the first three weeks)
Vikings 21, Panthers 13
Key Stat: Vikings — 44 plays, 19 pass attempts (both second fewest by any team this season)