I got a really nice comment on yesterday’s post from Darin, who started with this note: “I understand your point about the masses not wanting to think critically about fantasy football, and that confirmation bias sells subscriptions, but I hope that fact never discourages this content.”
I’ve heard this sentiment before, and he went on to share what I know a lot of you feel, that for as much as I complain about the fantasy landscape and expectations and all these things, that you see the value in my content, and appreciate it, and are happy to be here reading it.
I’ve talked about the subscriber base here before as a self-selecting group that gives me the freedom to do things the way I want. I do inherently understand what Darin and those of you who think like him are saying. I don’t forget that part of it, and for as long as I do content, I don’t think I could do it differently than the ways I do it with that stuff centered.
And I don’t have plans to stop doing content, by the way. I’ve gotten worry about that particular outcome a couple times this year, probably because my writing has leaned a certain way. One of the things Darin wrote was, “you appear to communicate all this stress about getting things wrong in the short term, missing on this or that player, etc. but all analysis, no matter how well done, will always be wrong more often than right over small sample sizes…” and he goes on to make great points there.
For what it’s worth, the stress is mostly unrelated. Some of you have been picking up apathy or disconnect with my writing — also unrelated. There’s actually something I’ve been processing, and I wasn’t sure whether or how to talk about it, but in the back of my mind I’ve known it wasn’t really sustainable, with the stream of consciousness way I write, and the tens of thousands of words I’ve produced since I found out, that the content wasn’t going to be impacted.
A month ago, right before Labor Day weekend, my little sister, who among other things is a very real inspiration for me, not in the ways you’d say that but in the ways you’d mean it, found out she has breast cancer. She started chemo last Friday. We’re at the point where she’s told everyone, and she told me it’s fine to share here, and right now things are maybe a little more optimistic than they looked or felt at other points in the past month, and that’s what we’re focused on.
I’m not really in a place to discuss it more than I will here, and sharing it is probably more about just getting it off my shoulders. One thing I’ll say is you guys are endlessly supportive, but I definitely don’t want a bunch of well wishes directed at me. I’m not the person this is happening to.
But I’ve always been someone who writes with passion for the subject matter, and with a lot of honesty, and it frankly hasn’t felt fair to not explain that this has impacted what you as a reader are getting out of me during a high-volume time. The timing being rough for my work is not important, but it’s made it tougher for me to work around it, because of the nature of creating content, and the energy it requires, especially at the volume I’m doing right now. Several of you now have picked up on the weight in my writing. At times, it’s manifested in weird ways like how I wrote an insane amount last week. At other times, I’ve just been going through the motions a little bit.
I’d guess some of you will encourage me to take a break, but the work’s been a good distraction, and sitting around not doing my job in September wasn’t and isn’t going to help anything. It’s just going to be a weird period here at the newsletter, is mostly all I’m trying to say. But the ways I’ve been writing and interacting with my work, both recently and throughout the life of this newsletter, have led to where I felt it was best to mention it, because there’s a lot of season left.
Let’s get to the games and talk some football. You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Jay (follow Jay on Twitter at FFCoder or check out his Daily Dynasties site), but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, and the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Rams 27, Colts 20
Key Stat: Puka Nacua — 15 targets, 172 air yards, 41% TPRR, 0.89 WOPR
As we get into the season, there are some teams where injuries haven’t been major and things are going to plan, and so we have a good idea what the offenses are. Both of these teams represent that, and both of their offenses looked pretty much as expected in a tight game here. The deciding factor really came down to Adonai Mitchell (4-3-96) unfortunately fumbling a ball out of the back of the end zone on what should have been a long TD, and then Tutu Atwell (2-1-88-1) getting his own huge play and, well, not doing that.
Kyren Williams (13-77, 4-3-17) lost a late fumble, but he got hit right on the football as he took the ball. It wasn’t really on him in a major way. Blake Corum (9-21, 4-2-(-5)) also had two bad drops in a game where he got up to 4 targets, and it both wasn’t reflected in the routes (only 14% to Kyren’s 64%) and won’t likely stick given he didn’t handle the target variance well.
There’s not much to say about Puka Nacua (15-13-170-1) that his statline doesn’t already say. Davante Adams (6-4-56-1) also hit paydirt as Matthew Stafford threw for three touchdowns, but Nacua continues to be the overall WR1 for now and the foreseeable future. Because of how Adams has consolidated WR2 volume here, he’s still a very valuable piece, as well.
The TEs got involved in this one, with Tyler Higbee (5-2-25) leading the way but two others also getting work. It’s kind of weird Terrance Ferguson is not even active as the Rams are using three other TEs, but what we’re seeing with Corum in Year 2 is evidence of how the Rams do bring some of these guys along more slowly than other teams.
Adonai Mitchell ran 91% routes and was heavily involved, and the fumble came on one of the most chaotic plays you’ll ever see. First of all, it was a great play to get to where he got. He made an insane catch, and one I’m not sure I’ve ever seen before. He was engaged with the DB, sort of hand-fighting, and waited to release his grip until the ball was basically landing in between them, and then he quickly let go of the defender and did a basket catch, underhanded, at the last possible second. Then he broke free from the defender, found space, and got loose up the sideline. And then he lost the ball for a turnover. In his defense, it wasn’t a fumble out of idiocy, like so many players before him who have just dropped the ball in celebration too early. Mitchell did the unfortunate thing of moving the ball around to try to reach it across the plane and the ball just slipped out of his grasp as he moved it around. It wasn’t idiocy, but it was the same result, a touchback for the opposing team. Great play, then a bummer of a result.
Mitchell also got called for holding to negate a long Jonathan Taylor (17-76, 5-5-20) TD run. According to NFL Pro, Taylor hit 20+ miles per hour on three plays this week alone, which gives him four on the season. Only two other RBs (Henry and Gibbs) have hit 20+ more than once this year, and both have done it twice.
Daniel Jones looked fine, despite a shakier box score with two interceptions. The first was very early, where he underthrew Mitchell on a deep ball but Mitchell was also weak to the ball and let a safety undercut him when he could have shielded him from the play. The second was late, in desperation mode. He otherwise continued to latch onto Michael Pittman (10-5-41-1) and Tyler Warren (6-5-70, 2-3-1), who added back-to-back green zone rushes and a rushing TD in one sequence. Warren continues to look like a focal point. Josh Downs (5-4-24) continues to look like an afterthought.
Signal: Puka Nacua — 15 targets, 172 air yards, 41% TPRR, 0.89 WOPR (just insane volume, overall WR1); Tyler Warren — back-to-back green zone rushes, rushing TD (continues to look like a total focal point); Adonai Mitchell — 91% routes with Alec Pierce out, 87 air yards, but also a couple miscues; Jonathan Taylor — 20+ MPH on three touches this week, no one else has done it more than twice all season
Noise: Blake Corum — 4 targets (only 14% routes, and he had two bad drops so not likely to see a ton more of this in the near term)