Stealing Signals, Week 6, Part 1
Including a new chapter for Stealing Signals
It was never a guarantee. Obviously getting some big performances from some key RBs this week was awesome to see, but it’s important even when the outcomes work our direction to understand we aren’t soothsayers, and it was never certain.
But I’m glad we stayed the course with it, with Kimani Vidal especially. I saw him getting dropped in a lot of places, and was being asked about dropping him in a lot of places, as the Chargers went to the bye last week. But things have moved very quickly in his favor since, which was the hope.
I just happened to check my best ball RB exposures on Underdog because I knew they were high on a few key players, and Bucky Irving was at the top, then Tyrone Tracy was fourth and Vidal fifth at the position. Back in May, I wrote to “Hammer the rookie RBs in all formats” this year, and I did a little loose ranking relative to value where I had Vidal at the top (largely because he went so late in the reality draft), Tracy next, and then Irving a few slots down but I wrote, “This list is a silly exercise, but I’ve absolutely ranked Irving too low on it… The only reason I’m not moving him up to like third is I wrote the sentence “…is sort of the discount Lloyd” and that won’t make sense if I rank him above Lloyd. Consider Irving in the same tier as Tracy, behind Vidal who is in a tier of his own for landing spot.”
MarShawn Lloyd, incidentally, is one of the other top-five RBs in my overall best ball exposures I just mentioned, coming in second as a reminder this stuff doesn’t always hit. And generally speaking, my best ball advance rates aren’t looking great right now, so this isn’t some kind of brag, but rather me reinforcing that I do draft the guys I’m saying to, and I absolutely ride with you guys on that stuff. And for my portfolio, this week was quite fun with all of Vidal, Irving, and Tracy finding the end zone, on one of the most difficult-to-navigate bye weeks we’ll get all season. (As for why the advance rates aren’t great, we’ll discuss that later on, in part because my heavy later-round RB builds wouldn’t be expected to be in great position at this point in the year, and if you had told me preseason that Elite TE was also off to a horrendous start, I would have guessed I wasn’t writing about my advance rates for another six weeks. But we’ll absolutely get there, with all the good and bad lessons learned.)
Anyway, when things are bad, my intros often argue they don’t look as bad as they do, like I’m saying now about my best ball teams. And when things are good — like the rookie RBs all hitting in a way that is exciting for the now but also the future — it’s worth remembering the deal with those things, too. I’m both very excited, but also very aware it was never a guarantee, and every year I have new readers who panic a little bit about some of the rookie stashes, and then when things break right I get these messages like, “You were right all along!”, and it’s just never either of those things.
I’m grateful with Vidal especially that I stayed the course throughout, and was recommending adding him over his bye, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous about his standing. Now with an activation and No. 2 snaps starting on the first drive, plus passing-down snaps and a big play in the passing game, and Gus Edwards on IR, and Hassan Haskins getting a pair of carries from a fullback alignment but otherwise not playing much at all (three snaps, versus 19 for Vidal), everything I’ve written about Vidal since about May feels vindicated.
But I don’t feel like a genius; I feel like I’ve breathed a huge sigh of relief. I know how these things sometimes just don’t break this way. It was all reading tea leaves — I didn’t have some inside info that kept me confident, either in August when things looked bleak after the first preseason game, or in September when he wasn’t even active — but sure, now that it played out this way, and Edwards is no longer in the picture, and Haskins’ usage indicated he was clearly only ahead of Vidal for that first month for special teams, and we now have the long-term handcuff to J.K. Dobbins with a potential 1b role brewing in a valuable rushing scheme, it all feels logical. It feels like this was the only way it could have ever played out.
But it wasn’t ever guaranteed, just as it wasn’t ever clear Tracy would displace Eric Gray quickly when Devin Singletary missed a couple games and give us back-to-back 100-yard games, or that Bucky would quickly out-play Rachaad White and then go for 100 and a touchdown when White missed. And that last situation is especially notable in that Bucky’s Week 6 can be read multiple ways, with a third back entering the mix, something I’m excited to write about below. As always, we’re trying to make the best bets we can make, and then there are these variables we can’t always see that influence those bets.
And when those variables make themselves known, as Sean Tucker did in Week 6, sometimes we have to reassess the bets entirely.
It’s a constantly moving target. None of it is ever clear, and clean, and easy. That’s why we think the ways we do in August and earlier, about the chaos that NFL seasons bring, and contingency planning, and building certain ways so we can maximize our potential of dominant rosters that will win leagues, not just perform decently. Even those of you who have teams that aren’t succeeding can, I’d imagine, look at what’s happened so far and see the ways you could have been in a much better position — I know I typically feel that way even with my poor rosters — such that it felt like a solid process to be building a specific direction, in an environment where we’re trying to beat 11 other competitors for first place.
I’ve been writing this every week, it feels like, and Week 6 was another obvious example where we needed to hit on this point in-season, so as to reinforce the offseason recommendations for future years. It’s a process to get to this way of thinking, and I’ve written before how it took me multiple years and some bumps along the road before I really bought in. I love paying that forward with these notes, and again, this was a super fun week.
But it’s also true that as I keep writing about chaos over and over, and there are these clean examples of how rookies in specific types of backfields are going to benefit from chaos in an antifragile way, it doesn’t always go this way. So we enjoy it when it does, and we expect times when it won’t be as straightforward. We’re talking about chaos, after all.
Before we jump into the games, I want to talk a little about something that will impact Stealing Signals this week and going forward, which is that for the first time in at least a decade, I changed my Sunday NFL viewing experience yesterday. There were a few reasons behind this, but the biggest was I frankly think I’m getting a little bit old, and I felt like I was having a harder time following six or eight or 10 games at once, like I’ve always done. Even as someone who can hyper-focus on this stuff, one of the things I’ve been realizing when writing is it’s felt like I’m missing a little bit of context, re: the way games really played out. And that’s the stuff I just find so valuable, as you guys know.
I’ve thought about doing things the way my Stealing Bananas podcast partner Shawn Siegele does them for years, which is to work through the games one by one, but I have more or less always rejected that as impractical since I wouldn’t be able to get through them all in time to write Monday morning. But I work through a lot of island games this way, and I worked through the full preseason weeks this way (although I don’t watch all four quarters of those games), and I just find that I get all that extra little context in those situations. So even if I wasn’t sure how all the timing would work out, and even if I felt like some things would be spoiled during the day as the different games cut into highlights from other games — and that might make the rewatches more tedious if I saw an outcome, and am expecting something specific to happen, which is another huge reason I’ve never done this, just wanting to see it all in real time — it felt worth a try.
And it couldn’t have been a bigger success. It was so liberating. I took a couple breaks, which I basically never do and felt super stressful to be honest, and yet I still grinded these games and had watched all 11 games by 7:10 local time out here on the west coast, or when Sunday Night Football was in the third quarter. I caught up to SNF by the end of that game, but I also had time through the day to work in the garage with my daughter on her softball swing (in the morning, right after lock), and I took my girls out for a quick bite at lunch, and while there were a ton of things I wanted to tweet but couldn’t because I was hours behind when they happened, not being on social media all day was massively +EV for my mental health. I almost certainly missed great context from the positive ways social media can influence how we interact with sports, but I also missed the pounds of horrendously disingenuous trash and just poor observations that typically impact my Sunday I think more than I realize.
I can’t even begin to tell you guys how much better yesterday was for me than every other Sunday this year, not least of which because I feel so much more conviction in everything I believe about the games I watched. I care a great deal about this work, to the extent that I interact with fantasy very differently these days, far more in relation to the calls I’ve put my name behind than worrying a ton about my own teams. If I could win all my leagues or have all the Stealing Signals subs win all theirs, it’s the latter and it’s not particularly close, which is in part because you guys pay me and so I do still have self interest in that outcome.
Anyway, this feels like a turning point for me, and while I try to not make guarantees about anything, as I sit here today, I can’t imagine going back. It might be that I’ll find it more difficult to get through all the games every week as the novelty of it has worn off, and I want to just passively watch some weeks in the future — sure, that’s a possibility here and there, because it’s undeniably easier to just get all the games up on different screens and let my head ping pong around. Over the years, I’ve obviously been able to write this column doing that, which argues I’m not actually missing that much each week.
But I think the process I undertook yesterday is mostly replicable, and I’m also confident that where my process of writing on Mondays and Tuesdays often features a lot of additional research to fill in the gaps of things I might have missed, that I’ll be far more prepared to tell the real story of each of these games this week. That’s the part that’s so cool, for me.
Again, I never thought I’d be able to get through all the games. Just didn’t seem practical. My plan was merely to get through the morning games, and then deal with the later games either Monday night or Tuesday morning, before I write Part 2. But I just smashed that plan. (For the record, me trying this new viewing experience was why we didn’t have a Stealing Bananas last night, but I probably could have pulled that off, too. We’ll see what we do with that in the future, for those of you who listen to the pod.)
Before I move on, I have to also acknowledge a very practical thing, a bias that I realized popped up, where I legit run the risk of favoring players who happened to look good this week, and being unfairly low on those who didn’t make an impact. There are several examples of this, but it was fascinating to see, for example, every Saquon Barkley touch right after watching several other games — that was the last one I got to in the early window — and feeling like even in a down game, he really does have a lot more burst than other RBs around the league right now. I’m not saying I’m suddenly all in on Barkley now — nor that I was ever really denying that he’s looked great this year — but it’s just that I probably haven’t watched the Eagles’ offense on Sundays as closely as many of the other teams because I’m not super exposed to them, and they’ve had injuries to some fun players. And in doing so in this game, and watching every Barkley touch right after watching a bunch of other backs super closely, that isolating element did have an effect, not just for Barkley but several things yesterday. (I’ve obviously also watched the Eagles on primetime a couple times, and again I’m making it sound like I miss a ton every Sunday when that’s just definitely not true.)
It’s just that yesterday ruled, and I feel like Neo in the Matrix right now in terms of having literally seen every snap yesterday. Again, I might not be able to keep up that stamina. I was super focused while working through these games, and maybe I can’t stay on that level forever.
But most weeks, I’m typically pretty confident in what I saw, but there are some stats and things that seem a little off to me, and I gotta go back and try to understand why someone who looked good didn’t get much more work, or someone who I didn’t see do anything had this big line (it’s often like garbage time or something). This week, I feel like I have all the context for every player in the entire league. My corresponding overreaction is I feel like everything I’ve done before this week is trash. I want to go back and rewatch all of Weeks 1-5 and start over.
Anyway, I’m reinvigorated, and I’m excited for the future, and I’m just trying to explain what to expect. I just didn’t think this path would be as manageable as it was. The spoilers were extremely mild — I wound up turning off some notifications on my phone, but I was otherwise fine, as I didn’t spend any time on social and the check-ins are mostly between plays, and I was constantly fast-forwarding during those dead periods. Most of the TD highlights are the same two or three plays — I saw Jayden Reed’s TD pop up on three or four other broadcasts — but I wasn’t getting a bunch of different things hitting my consciousness all the time. The scores and stats running on the bottom line during the games is a bit of a nuisance, but I found ways to block that.
I also thought it would be super tough for me to not just check results because of all the sweats I have going, but I managed. I was constantly working through games, and I just love this shit so much it was like a little prize that I’d pop over to some other game I was curious about next. Maybe the results helped, with a lot of fun stuff happening for a lot of players, and my bets going well, although we did have some injuries we have to discuss. It was just very cool, and instead of spending my Sunday on social and engaging with a lot of negative, I spent yesterday remembering all the very positive things I love about the NFL.
Again, even knowing I am borderline psychotic about my focus on NFL Sundays, I just never expected I’d be able to manage it the way I did. And it worked in a way that I think is replicable, and will be just so much more positive for the writeups today and tomorrow, and for future Sundays. I can’t wait until next week.
Let’s get to the games. One of the real unfortunate things about Week 6 was the injuries, with a ton of players not just exiting but exiting in the first half. It’s always a bummer when you both lose a guy and also take a goose egg in your lineup for this week; it’s mostly random, but when a guy gets hurt after at least scoring some points that week, it can be a little easier to swallow. Obviously, these are humans and we hope for their health first and foremost; I’m sure it’s a lot more frustrating for them to prepare all week and not even get to play more than a few snaps.
As always, you can find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and NFL Pro. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
49ers 36, Seahawks 24
Key Stat: Kenneth Walker — 10 HVTs (most in Week 6, through Sunday)
Hilariously, because it was an island game, this is probably the game I have the weakest grasp of. Despite watching it live, I’m streaming Thursday night shows every week over at Ship Chasing during the games, and not always super locked in. The 49ers always led in this one, but the Seahawks tried to keep it close late, ultimately to no avail. In their comeback, Seattle threw 52 passes, most in Week 6, through Sunday. What was funny about that is they actually came out running in the first half in a way that felt like an overcorrection to last week, and they wound up with a -5.0% PROE, because of a very high expected pass rate due to all the comeback snaps in the second half. They’re 452 air yards also led the week, and their pass-heaviness the past couple weeks does contextualize some of the performances.
D.K. Metcalf (11-3-48) had a tough afternoon, with his toe just on the line taking away a potential TD right before halftime and a long TD lost to a hold late, either of which could have made his whole day. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (9-5-53) got off to a fast start but slowed, and this line is just not good enough in a game with as much pass volume as I just described. Tyler Lockett (8-4-65-1) was the best performer of the key trio here, while Noah Fant (6-6-63) also had his best game of the year. It’s notable that Metcalf and JSN still had the target lead.
Kenneth Walker (14-32-1, 8-8-37) didn’t have a huge day, but showed off the power of HVTs, as he caught all eight of his targets and punched in one of his two green zone touches for a 20-point PPR performance. Zach Charbonnet (5-20, 1-1-15) continued to back him up, but his routes reached a season-low 19% here while Walker has been flirting with 60% routes over the past two games.
The big note on San Francisco’s side was Jordan Mason’s (9-73, 2-1-9) shoulder injury, and he was well on his way to a big day before that. I talked a bit about it in Input Volatility, and it’s tough for Mason backers that his run of clear production could get limited by this. Fortunately, it’s just an AC sprain, but even that is tough for a physical back, and you obviously already lost playing time here in Week 7 over it. Isaac Guerendo (10-99) split with Patrick Taylor (5-16, 1-1-12), and until Guerendo got loose for a late 76-yard run right at the end, he wasn’t doing much. Guerendo’s worth an add, but I wouldn’t get crazy due to a split role and not much on passing downs. Neither back ran a lot of routes as the team used Kyle Juszczyk (1-6-1, 4-3-10) in a passing-down role, as well as Deebo Samuel (4-15, 5-3-102-1) out of the backfield.
Samuel had a fantastic play on an underthrown ball to go get it and avoid the safety bearing down on him, getting free for a 76-yard TD. George Kittle (6-5-58-2) was the other smash in this one, while Brandon Aiyuk (4-2-37) and Jauan Jennings (5-3-27) took back seats.
Oh yeah, Laviska Shenault had a return TD. Never wrong, just early.
Signal: Kenneth Walker — 57% routes, 8 targets, while Zach Charbonnet was down to a season-low 19% routes
Noise: Isaac Guerendo — 99 rushing yards (had a long run, but only 10% routes as the team used Patrick Taylor as well as guys like Kyle Juszczyk on passing downs, and Jordan Mason’s injury doesn’t appear to be long-term, so Guerendo is worth an add but with limited expectations); D.K. Metcalf — 3 catches, 48 yards (11 targets, 166 air yards, lost one potential TD to his toe barely being on the line, and another long one to a holding penalty); Seahawks — 52 passes (-5.0% PROE, just a heavy negative script)
Bears 35, Jaguars 16
Key Stat: Evan Engram — 10 targets, 10 catches, 33% TPRR
We got a lot here in the London game, including Caleb Williams continuing his ascent, especially noticeable on a fantastic back shoulder TD pass to Keenan Allen (5-5-41-2) in the third quarter. That came right after a catch down to the 1 was called back by penalty, and a little while later, Allen scored again on a 3-yard fade. I had made a note early in this one that he more or less doesn’t have a ton of value for these guys, even considering making a case that they should trade him since D.J. Moore (5-4-20) feels like the pretty clear No. 1, and they are getting plenty of production out of Cole Kmet (5-5-70-2) while Caleb seems to like throwing to Rome Odunze (2-2-40) though that’s building a little slowly. In the past, Keenan’s been a target-dominant player in situations like the void the Chiefs have, but there’s this whole other nice trio of pass-catchers and Keenan’s just kind of not that involved lately — at least until this second-half run of red zone targets, and I think maybe that’s his role for now, as a man-coverage beater with his smooth route-running in close, AKA a touchdown vulture.
Kmet continues to impress as a high-end real-life TE I’ve been telling you guys since the March TPRR piece had a lowkey breakout last year and was and is very good. I was definitely a little worried about all the Gerald Everett (1-0-0) stuff but he is hardly playing, and Kmet’s 74% routes here were another season high. He’s a locked-in top-10 TE.
D’Andre Swift (17-91-1, 4-4-28) continues his total reversal of his season to where he’s apparently good now, while Roschon Johnson (5-8, 3-2-25) continues to be his primary backup.
Brian Thomas (6-3-27) had a tough drop of a TD late, and drops were a major issue for the Jaguars in this one, but Thomas had a couple quick, early catches, and just so clearly looks like the long-term No. 1 guy here. He’s a guy I wrote a lot about not being a target-dominant player but I was just wrong on. I do a lot of pontificating about whether certain takes are right or wrong or just small samples but this is one I very clearly would take back and should have just been in on the very exciting rookie with elite efficiency, as that drives volume, and not been so worried about volume. Or whatever the miss was, I mean I’m not even sure I know, but I know at this point it was a clear miss and I should have been in on him more. The dropped TD was tough, but Trevor Lawrence also underthrew him again on a deep shot in the early third quarter where he could have had a touchdown, and Thomas was openly annoyed. Both guys were to blame for one, but he should have scored in this one, and possibly twice. He’ll continue to be the guy for the Jaguars going forward.
Evan Engram (10-10-102) did feast underneath with 10 catches at a 5.8 aDOT, while Christian Kirk (6-3-39) had a quiet day, and Gabe Davis (8-5-45-2) managed to catch two touchdowns despite two bad drops on other potential scores. One early on was a third down and was a reasonably short pass right through his hands; I’m not sure what’s up with Lawrence’s throws but I’m legit at the point of wondering if he’s the opposite of when receivers love to say a QB throws a catchable ball.
Travis Etienne (3-(-1), 1-0-0) didn’t necessarily look right early in this one, then left with what was described as a hamstring injury, after previously having a shoulder issue. He’s being described as week-to-week, and I’d suspect he’ll miss at least one game, if not a couple just to get him right. Tank Bigsby (7-24) unfortunately didn’t take advantage, struggling with rushing efficiency and then watching as D’Ernest Johnson (6-28, 2-2-16) actually played far more snaps (56% to 27%) and created an even bigger gap in routes run (53% to 14%). This was the type of concern I tried to articulate with Bigsby last week, but it’s worth noting that in better game script, and especially starting from the beginning of the game if Etienne is out, you’d expect him to get a lot more work. The Jaguars host the Patriots in London next week, who just got gashed by the Texans on the ground, and where Jacksonville will possibly have an advantage of having been in Europe and adjusted to the time difference. It’s always tough to live and die by rushing efficiency, but next week actually feels like a spot that could be positive for that profile. But to be clear, Johnson’s usage was still real. Early in the game, Johnson was on the field for the first green zone rep from the 9-yard line, before a false start backed them up, and then he stayed on and got a carry from the 14. Bigsby did come on for a 3rd-and-goal obvious pass down right after that, which was interesting, but his overall routes were so limited that feels like it was just rotational, or they wanted to go to Etienne and he wasn’t ready (he had played in that sequence). Bigsby also later fumbled a kickoff, which isn’t a great way to endear yourself to the coaches.
Signal: Keenan Allen — multiple targets in close for short TDs, as well as one called back by penalty (seems to be a red zone favorite); Cole Kmet — season-high 74% routes, continues to produce and isn’t going to lose the role as a result, clear stud top-10 TE; Evan Engram — 10 targets, 10 catches (target-dominant underneath role)
Noise: Brian Thomas — 3 catches, 27 yards (Trevor Lawrence missed him with a poorly underthrown deep ball on a potential long TD, then Thomas flat dropped a well-thrown ball for another TD chance, but Thomas remains the No. 1 WR here); Tank Bigsby, D’Ernest Johnson — Johnson played far more with 56% snaps and 53% routes, and it’s clear Bigsby’s role if Travis Etienne misses would require positive or neutral game script, but Bigsby should be expected to do more than the 27% snaps, 14% routes, and 7 touches he got in this one if Etienne is out, as the likely early-down back from the first quarter on
Ravens 30, Commanders 23
Key Stat: Zay Flowers — 9 targets, 33% TPRR
I haven’t talked about game management stuff as much this year, mostly because it gets tiresome to repeat the same points, but also because coaches have gotten better at it. But in this game, after a first half where you could feel the offenses getting ready to explode, and then the second half starting with both teams trading field goals, Dan Quinn elected to punt on 4th-and-6 from the plus-44, down by 7, on the road against a team like the Ravens, with a roster where his offense is clearly the strength of his team and his defense is horrendous. The Ravens drove right down and scored a touchdown to push it to 14, which Jayden Daniels and the offense answered, converting a fourth down at the goal line for a TD. Quinn then failed to go for a 2-point conversion at that spot, in the early fourth quarter, electing to cut the lead to 7 despite the clear advantage to going when down 8. After that, the Ravens made another field goal to push it to 10, the Commanders had to settle for one of their own to cut it back to 7, they kicked off deep with 2:48 remaining against a great rushing team instead of an onside kick, and the Ravens ran the ball effectively and ended the game. It’s usually not this clean, but it became clear that they needed that possession they punted away, and they voluntarily gave it up despite a defense that pretty much couldn’t make the punt yardage matter anyway. Or they needed to steal one with an onside kick, which they also elected not to do. People who miss the point of these mistakes focus on the downside risk of not converting, but this one was clean because even if you frame the conversation in that light, it didn’t matter where they gave the Ravens the ball because they went and scored a TD on the next drive anyway. But if you can focus on the positive outcomes — the “what if we convert?” — you can see they needed a TD on that drive to keep pace, because they kept pace every other drive after that and still lost. That punt became the only second-half possession for either team that didn’t end in points, other than Baltimore running out the clock at the end. The Ravens had also scored on three of five first-half drives, with one of their misses coming in the red zone when a pass deflected off Mark Andrews’ (4-3-66-1) hands for an INT. That was otherwise a 4-play, 46-yard march right down into scoring position. Dan Quinn’s defensive unit basically got one legit stop all game and he somehow felt that was enough to eschew a 4th-and-6 just so he could play a field position game. The other thing people love to talk about in these spots is how the models can’t account for game situation and the offenses and defenses on the field but hey, how about this one? How about these offenses and defenses? This was terrible coaching, and it robbed us of a potentially electric finish where we could have found out if Daniels could hang with Lamar Jackson. He did very well otherwise, suggesting he maybe could have, but the game was just never within one score with the ball in his hands again, because his coach is a dinosaur.
Zay Flowers (9-9-132, 1-2) got loose for an early 44-yard play on a WR screen, then was just the whole offense in the first half. In fact, all 9 of his catches came before the break, which is both somewhat frustrating because it felt like he was going for 200, but also really positive given the clear intent to get him going as the focal point of the passing game. Rashod Bateman (4-4-71) also had a decent game in the plus matchup, while Andrews found paydirt for the first time but still only ran routes on 50% of dropbacks. Isaiah Likely (4-2-27) was right there with him for receiving volume.
Derrick Henry (24-132-2) had a field day with the Ravens, which reinforces how dumb the punt was, and even the kicking it off long. You didn’t have the defense to stop this train, and that was clear all game long. Anyway, Henry continues to look like a 22-year-old again, and he’s just such a fun player to watch, even if you don’t have a lot of him in fantasy. He’s legitimately an all-time great RB and it’s so cool to see what he’s been able to do in a situation that can support him and get the best out of him rather than him needing to kind of create it all on his own like was the case at times in Tennessee.
Watching this game closely, I did feel like I should continue to give Kliff Kingsbury a little more credit than I was early in the year, because there are some pretty clever elements here with the short passing, and the misdirection and the things they are doing are obviously not bland, and help create the hesitation with the defenders that allows Daniels a little extra time in other spots. Daniels is still the reason this all works, as he’s especially great, but this isn’t just the same ol’ Kliff with some of the uninspired stuff he was doing in Arizona. He’s got a few little things up his sleeve, and there was even one play that got blown up that looked ridiculous where I’m of the mind it was at least worth trying. There are these misdirection plays where if they are defended well, they sometimes look absurd because they aren’t what we are used to, but that’s sort of the tradeoff for the other times where they look like pure ballet and get a dude wide open. You still gotta be willing to try some stuff, and most of the “too cute” complaints are just outcome-based and don’t understand the process behind it (that said, there are very much some plays that are too cute).
Austin Ekeler (9-21, 5-4-47) was the lead with Brian Robinson out, and while he didn’t have a big game as the whole offense was a little less sharp on the road in Baltimore, Ekeler continues to look very good this year.
Terry McLaurin (7-6-53-2) is of course the guy benefitting the most from Daniels’ presence, and then Noah Brown (8-4-58) looked OK, and Zach Ertz (5-4-68) had a game that will get him way too many more chances, while Olamide Zaccheaus (6-4-27) mostly just caught his super low aDOT swing passes. Brown’s I guess the notable one, in that they need a No. 2 WR and he had solid routes here for just the second time this year, and earned good volume with a 32% TPRR at a 13.3-yard aDOT.
Signal: Zay Flowers — 9 catches, 132 yards, all in first half (not ideal that he had nothing in the second half, but was clearly the focal point of the passing gameplan); Noah Brown — 60% routes, 8 targets, 13.3 aDOT (could be working into a No. 2 WR role, which they need)
Noise: Mark Andrews — 4-3-66-1 (strong game, but only 50% routes, still behind Isaiah Likely’s 53%, and while Andrews is good at football and will do this kind of thing occasionally, the role still sucks); Austin Ekeler — 21 rush yards in lead back situation (they gave him a 75% snap share, and he continues to look explosive, which we saw more in the passing game)