Stealing Signals, Week 6, Part 2
The Week 6 recap with the Biggest Signals and Noise of the week
If you missed yesterday’s intro, you might want to check it out if you plan to read today’s, because I’m basically just going to continue it. Or maybe not; maybe this will make for a decent summary.
I wrote several times that I didn’t know if I was getting the point across well, which definitely meant that I’ve spent time since thinking through what the hell I was actually trying to argue. And I think it was a few different things.
First, I think it was a point I got to, which is that there’s this idea I buy into where you get yourself in or out of position when the process and results align or don’t align. I tried to give some different examples of this, but I did think of probably the best, which is start/sit decisions. When you have a player’s really poor score in your lineup, I’d argue you’re more likely to then have his good score on your bench in the future. And when you have a player’s really good score on your bench, I’d argue you’re more likely to then have his good score in your lineup in the future.
Conversely, if you have the poor score on the bench, it’ll be a bit easier for you to pull the trigger to get them in your lineup when a good matchup or bye week dictates they need the chance. And if you have a great score in the lineup, it’ll be that much easier to make the tough sit when it’s not that player’s week to be in the lineup.
I think this is basically inarguable, and I guess I envision every person reading this, who has played fantasy at any level and understands the emotional tilt of making the wrong start/sit decisions, is nodding along. That’s obviously not accurate — one of my favorite things of writing is understanding that I have a diverse group of readers who are all interpreting things from very different paradigms, and obviously are not always going to align in how they view things — but this one feels like it’d have to be pretty close to unanimous among people who have played this dumb hobby of ours that makes us feel like idiots all the time.
The other main point I think I was really trying to get to was this idea of being willing to “admit” things. To take Ls. And ultimately, I was arguing that I don’t believe you should want your fantasy analyst to have their head on a swivel, and be reacting — changing their viewpoint and what they think is actionable — to every piece of information.
There are times for it — there are moments when something isn’t even going to move a player’s valuation much, and even if you’re a little later to the party than it feels like you should have been, you can still beat the masses. I was late on Puka Nacua but was ready to admit that and be aggressive after Week 1, when there was still some legitimate doubt.
But constantly following groupthink is when you get out of position. There’s this idea I’ve written about before of “strong opinions, loosely held.” There’s an inherent flaw in that. If I’m constantly shifting my opinion on players based on last week’s box scores, why should you care about what I’m writing this week? There are so, so many fantasy analysts whose whole shtick is convenient backward-looking analysis. They love to tell you why the thing that already happened, happened. And even that can be beneficial, if we’re learning something about how to identify the next similar event. But for many of these analysts, that’s not it.
It’s instead just constantly floating in space, looking for a take to latch onto. It’s a volume game — keep shooting, and stay within the lines of what happened last week and what the current conventional wisdom is, and have a few takes get retweeted a few hundred times, and do it again next week. But for those analysts, do you ever really know what they believe? How they draft or play? I get in leagues with some of these guys and I just have to laugh when I see them try to actually play fantasy football. (And I’m sometimes surprised by the skill of others.)
I’m barreling dangerously close to that Big Lebowski quote, where it’s like, “Say what you want about the tenets of national socialism, at least it’s an ethos.”
Anyway, that’s enough on this topic. One other thing I wanted to mention from yesterday was I got a nice tip from subscriber Neal that Elijah Mitchell might be the preferred option over Jordan Mason if Christian McCaffrey misses time, which isn’t super surprising given their past track records, obviously. I’ve edited yesterday’s notes on Mason and Mitchell to be Noise, and they’ll be found in the “Biggest Noise” section below.
Let’s get to the final games of Week 6, and we had some good teams playing in the afternoon window. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Raiders 21, Patriots 17
Key Stat: Michael Mayer — 67% routes, 6 targets, 27% TPRR
The Raiders won this game on a near-walkoff safety, and there were unfortunately a bunch of injuries, and neither of the teams really is all that interesting in reality, but the biggest story was Michael Mayer (6-5-75). Mayer was the third TE drafted in this year’s lauded class, but just a pick behind Sam LaPorta with the fourth pick of the second round, so 35th overall. In many predraft rankings, he was the top prospect, in part because he is youngest, and had posted two 800-yard collegiate seasons at very young ages (and even the 450 he put up as a true freshman was better than, say, all four of Luke Musgrave’s collegiate seasons; it’s not easy to put up big yardage as a collegiate TE — Musgrave, LaPorta, and Dalton Kincaid combined for one 800-yard season across their combined careers, which was Kincaid’s final season). Mayer’s final season featured a true breakout year, but certainly that’s not the only thing; implicit in the reality that TEs don’t produce much in college is situation matters. Hell, it matters in the NFL, and that’s arguably why we haven’t heard much from Mayer. I’m spending all this time on his profile, though, to argue that you should care when his routes spike to 67%, up from last week’s season high of 49%, and he gets targeted on three of Jimmy Garoppolo’s first four passes on what are likely going to go down as “first read” looks — and they should, because for the second straight week, it was clear there was an intent to get Mayer more involved within the first 15 plays. Ultimately, in a game where Garoppolo was injured and the Raiders threw just 32 passes, Mayer’s targets were one shy of the team high, his yardage led the team, and his routes easily out-paced Austin Hooper’s (2-2-19). The veteran didn’t completely go away, but the big story is that as the team has gone to Mayer the past two weeks, he’s produced in both, posting a silly 3.00 YPRR thanks to earning targets on 24% of routes, catching 78% of them, and posting a YPT of 12.7. He’s not going to keep up that kind of efficiency, but they took this guy high, he has a strong production profile, they are starting to expand his usage, and he’s producing. Oh, and it’s a concentrated offense looking for additional pieces to step up that clearly has room for a TE producer. And the team’s not going anywhere and developing young talent will be a focus, not to mention the possibility of trading their star WR. Mayer’s maybe the biggest TE add of the year (particularly in deeper leagues).
Davante Adams (5-2-29) took a big hit early, and while he stayed on to run routes on 100% of dropbacks, it’s a possible explanation for his quiet day. Instead, Jakobi Meyers (7-5-61-1) put up a big line against his former team, who certainly regrets letting him go to instead pay JuJu Smith-Schuster (inactive) a nearly identical 3-year, $33-million contract to the one Meyers signed with the Raiders (which Meyers commented on on social media at the time). Other than Meyers, Adams, and Mayer, no other Raiders’ WR or TE had more than 2 targets.
Josh Jacobs (25-77, 5-2-16) continued to struggle with efficiency, which was a lowkey huge part of his breakout last year, as we’ve discussed many times dating to last year. The usage is still strong, but without the efficiency, the fantasy production has been much weaker this year. He’s still someone to hold, but it’s a reminder of the replaceability of some high RB picks when the efficiency isn’t there — during draft season, everyone tells you to buy the touches, but touches without efficiency can be what Pat Kerrane has called a “silent killer.” It’s not terrible, but you’d clearly rather have less touch certainty with bigger efficiency potential from someone like Raheem Mostert, or even a less obvious answer in that mold.
Speaking of silent killers, Rhamondre Stevenson (10-46-1, 6-5-24) has also become one, although he was able to find paydirt and rack up a season-high 7 HVTs here. He’s a potential sell low candidate after this outing, where he didn’t really do a lot to assuage the efficiency concerns, but did find some fantasy scoring. That said, you can make a similar case as I made for Jacobs where the role is good enough that you just play him for the floor production. Ezekiel Elliott (7-34-1, 1-1-15) had scored earlier in the game, and took two of the four RB green zone touches, which isn’t a great longterm sign for Stevenson. He also had a long TD reception called back by a downfield holding (he got 15 of the yards on his ledger), and it’s a legit concern for Stevenson that Elliott arguably looks no different than or perhaps better than him. After finishing in the top 10 in yards over expectation in NFL’s RYOE each of the pas two years at +68 and +118, Stevenson is dead last here in 2023 at -85. Stevenson also got a little banged up in this one.
Hunter Henry (3-1-7) was another guy who was knocked from the game early, totaling just 54% routes. Kendrick Bourne (11-10-89) easily led the way for the offense, while Mike Gesicki (3-3-28) was the only other WR or TE to catch multiple passes. Tyquan Thornton (2-1-6) made his season debut and ran routes on 49% of dropbacks; he’s at least a name to watch in the coming weeks, but for now it’s difficult to see where the upside might be in this passing game.
Signal: Michael Mayer — 67% routes, backing up the increase to a season-high 49% last week, but also has posted a 3.00 YPRR over the two games, clearly validating the expanded role in an offense looking for another weapon
Noise: Rhamondre Stevenson — solid game, but got there on workload, is now dead last at -85 RYOE (was top 10 past two years at +68 and +118), and hasn’t looked meaningfully better than Ezekiel Elliott, who took 2 green zone touches here
Rams 26, Cardinals 9
Key Stat: Kyren Williams — 83% average snap share, 4.2 HVTs per game (expected to miss Week 7)
In a game that featured five first-half field goals, the Rams were able to break through with two second-half touchdowns and go on to win. Matthew Stafford threw just 24 passes as L.A. finished at -3.7% PROE, in a game where the Cardinals were even lower at -5.0%. Cooper Kupp (9-7-148-1) still dominated, and Puka Nacua (7-4-26) took another big step forward despite the limited production, posting a 29% target share in a game where Kupp was at a whopping 38%. Nacua got multiple end zone targets as well, dropping one as he made impact with the ground, just before Kupp got his score. Clearly Kupp is the more talented player and is going to be more efficient and all those things, but Nacua’s still earning volume at a very strong rate for a No. 2 weapon, and if there’s a panicked manager in your league, he’s someone to look at buying low on.
Unfortunately, things are less rosy for Tutu Atwell (1-1-30), who has transitioned into more of a situational third weapon. Tyler Higbee (3-2-18) is also lost in the shuffle a little bit. Atwell’s not a cut or anything, and he’ll likely still have his moments when the team throws a little more, or just due to weekly variance.
Kyren Williams (20-158-1) posted another strong line, but unfortunately suffered a late ankle injury that looks likely to cost him at least one game. Ronnie Rivers (3-9, 1-1-4) also got banged up, which leaves Zach Evans (4-10). Evans is definitely intriguing, but the Rams look to be backfilling RB with some veterans, including Myles Gaskin, Royce Freeman, and Darrell Henderson. Their M.O. at RB tends to be “do no harm,” and they’ve had a tendency to defer to veterans in the McVay era.
Marquise Brown (11-4-34) continued to lead the way for the Cardinals, but the efficiency has been sporadic, as might be expected given the QB situation. Zach Ertz (5-2-22) fell to a season-low 52% routes, and I didn’t see an injury there. That allowed Trey McBride (5-4-62) to jump to a season-high 48%. McBride is another deep TE to watch if you miss on Mayer. Rondale Moore (7-4-30, 3-(-4)) and Michael Wilson (4-3-62) had meh days.
Keaontay Ingram (10-40, 2-2-11) was the early-down lead in this one, while Emari Demercado (2-11, 1-1-6) did wind up with the overall snap share lead, but he finished well short of Ingram’s touch count, a sure sign Demercado was playing a lot in comeback mode late. Veteran Damien Williams (8-36, 1-1-8) was actually the next man up for rush attempts, getting the first carries on the second drive after Ingram got the two carries on the first drive.
Signal: Puka Nacua — 29% target share in game where Cooper Kupp hit 38% (another positive data point for Nacua’s viability with Kupp back, and he also had multiple end zone targets); Trey McBride — season-high 48% routes as Zach Ertz fell to season-low 52%; Keaontay Ingram — was early-down lead, followed by Damien Williams, while Emari Demercado still played a bunch in negative script (none are really startable in a three-way split, but Ingram would be first)
Noise: Rams — 24 pass attempts (positive script, didn’t really get pushed by Arizona); Rams RB situation — I like Zach Evans, but the Rams have had a tendency to defer to veterans in the McVay era, so Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson are threats
Jets 20, Eagles 14
Key Stat: Breece Hall — 59% routes (previous season high — 41%), 6 HVTs