The Mariners played Game 7 today. I spent most of the day trying to work through this post, but had a hard time focusing. I got bits and pieces done, but not as much as I needed to.
They played well, taking an early lead, and had a real shot to win, but lost late. Several of you Blue Jays fans have reached out throughout the series, and I appreciate the messages. I’m definitely happy for you guys; this core you guys have has been a fun one for a few years now. Definitely hope you guys give the Dodgers a run.
I worked through most of this after the game, so apologies for the general lack of joy in my writing. I’m sure I’ll be barreling down on some more football stuff in the near future, but today will be a shorter post. Obviously, I still wanted to get out what I had written up in the notes.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, and people seem to really like that. You can also find easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Jay (follow Jay on Twitter at FFCoder or check out his Daily Dynasties site), but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, and the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Part 1 of Week 1 had a glossary of key terms to know.
Bengals 33, Steelers 31
Key Stat: Ja’Marr Chase — 23 targets, 16 receptions, 48% TPRR, 1.06 WOPR
One of the “Biggest Signals” last week was how Joe Flacco’s style was going to bring a lot more completions to the Bengals’ offense, which was going to be great for fantasy value, but this was way beyond what I was expecting. Flacco simultaneously got the ball to the key players and also led a massive win in a division that is there for the Bengals to take with Baltimore sitting at 1-5. If Pittsburgh won this game, they would’ve gone to 5-1 with the Bengals still in second place at 2-5. Instead, it’s now 4-2 and 3-4, and when they meet again in a few weeks in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati will be off a bye and have a shot to lock up the tiebreaker. Between now and then, the Bengals have home games against the Jets and Bears, while the Steelers face three teams with winning records in the Packers, Colts, and Chargers. It’ll be fascinating to check back in on this division in about a month; if Lamar Jackson is healthy out of Baltimore’s bye, the Ravens are also not done.
For fantasy, Flacco being good for the Bengals’ offense was a huge story. Ja’Marr Chase’s (23-16-161-1) line doesn’t even seem real. Cincinnati’s +9.7% PROE was a season high, and their actual pass rate was over 70% for the second time in two Flacco starts. One big part of the fantasy value Flacco provides here is Cincinnati is a very concentrated offense, relative to Cleveland being relatively unconcentrated. But beyond that, it does also seem Flacco is just a better fit for this Cincinnati system this year, or at least he has looked a lot better in it through two weeks than he looked in Cleveland.
Chase was unreal. At one point, he lost a touchdown on a review, but he just burned Jalen Ramsey to catch a fade the very next play. He was mostly operating underneath, and I saw some commentary that acted like that was a negative, but Chase’s ability to gain easy separation on basically every snap is insane. Say what you want about it, but it’s not easy to always be that open for easy throws, and then to add the ball-in-hand ability Chase does means the success rate of these plays was very high. It kept Cincinnati on schedule and operating an efficient offense that ultimately put up 470 total yards. The massive fantasy day Chase got credited with was not a “PPR scam” or whatever; this was an incredible offensive performance for the whole team, and schematically, the whole thing revolved around the unique skills of their superstar WR, who was amazing. He arguably deserved one more catch, but had an ever-so-slight slight bobble on the sideline that we were told meant he “lost possession” from the broadcast team (he didn’t, that’s absurd) and led to an overturn, which gave us this cursed image:
They’ve done better with catch rules in recent years, and I actually do think T.J. Hockenson’s was fairly overturned, but this Chase one was a catch and a very silly result. (Chase did go on to catch passes on each of the next two snaps.)
Tee Higgins (10-6-96-1) had a strong game as well, including an impressive sprint after the catch for the end zone to convert a 29-yard TD. His line looks weak compared to Chase’s, but obviously strong on its own. The box score was extremely concentrated, with just four WR/TEs catching passes. Noah Fant (4-4-44-1) also scored, and was the only targeted TE with Mike Gesicki out, while running a season-high 71% routes that makes him an interesting TE streamer. Andrei Iosivas (4-3-49) was the only other targeted WR, and had a big play in one-on-one coverage up the seam, but otherwise was pretty quiet.
Last week, I wrote about how Chase Brown (11-108, 4-2-(-8)) might see an uptick in receiving, and he did get four targets, but that was right in line with his season average. He had a tough drop on one of those, and early throw to the middle of the field where he had room to run. But as a rusher, he was strong, and that is another lowkey benefit to Flacco’s ability to read and attack secondaries, is it seemed to help with the rushing lanes, i.e. the WR talent became more of a threat to the defense. We haven’t seen rushing efficiency like this from Brown all year, and he now has back-to-back solid YPC games after a season high of just 4.0 through the first five weeks. Brown’s a fine play going forward, probably not at the level of his preseason ADP but a viable starting RB2, and still worth kicking the tires on in trades where he’s discounted. I fully expect his future scoring to outpace his production to date, particularly once he scores a few TDs, because he has just one on the year. Samaje Perine (7-31) handled all his usual No. 2 work.
Aaron Rodgers threw a couple of interceptions downfield, but did have a pretty deep ball to D.K. Metcalf (5-3-50) early, and hit Pat Freiermuth (6-5-111-2) for a pair of vertical scores, including a huge go-ahead 68-yard TD late in the fourth. He definitely still has arm talent, but it’s not the best offense for a ton of these kinds of games. For Freiermuth, it was a classic spike game with the long TD, and Metcalf I’m sure will be better than this most weeks. Jonnu Smith (6-3-28-1) and Darnell Washington (5-3-2-1) each caught TDs to make it three different TEs who scored, and Connor Heyward (1-0-0) also got another end zone target, so he’s more of a threat for a TD than he should be, too, despite the fact that he barely runs any routes. Arthur Smith loves TEs.
Last week, I said Kenneth Gainwell (3-14, 2-2-1) seemed like the best fantasy RB in that game, but emphasized Jaylen Warren (16-127, 5-4-31) is still the lead back. In this one, it seemed a little silly to have even contrasted their relative value. The gap was very wide in favor of Warren, who saw more targets as it seemed like Gainwell stayed in to pass block on a lot of his pass reps. Warren looked great, including on a negated TD run in the second quarter where he reversed field and evaded several tacklers. He had many other similar plays that counted, and the real news is probably that Kaleb Johnson is even further buried. It’s a moving train thing at this point where both veteran backs have been very effective in recent weeks, and Johnson is just going to have a hard time getting enough work to flash and then earn more work. He didn’t play a single snap in this game, and while he does still theoretically provide something a little different when he’s in the game, the offense operates effectively with both of the other two backs. I’ve flirted with the idea of him being a sneaky pickup in some of my leagues, and the more I thought about it, I just didn’t think that’s actually the way to play it. Draft capital doesn’t always equate to playing time, and this is a win-now team that is still comfortably in the driver’s seat in the division despite the loss, has a veteran QB, and is fine with the guys they have been using, assuming they stay healthy. Johnson will get opportunities at some point, but it’s feeling more like in 2026.
One final note about this game was the Steelers tried a tush push and didn’t time up the early guard movement well enough, and got flagged for the false start. I don’t believe we’ve seen the Eagles get flagged for that yet because of how well-timed theirs are, but the refs were obviously looking for it and caught a more obvious one here.
Signal: Ja’Marr Chase — 23 targets, 16 receptions, 48% TPRR, 1.06 WOPR (these numbers are absurd, but Flacco is a big boost); Chase Brown — efficient as a rusher in both Flacco games, likely to benefit in terms of receptions as well (solid fantasy RB2 worth trying to buy low given he’s scored just one TD so far this season); Noah Fant — 71% routes (season high); Bengals — +9.7% PROE, actual pass rate over 70% in both Flacco starts so far; Jaylen Warren — 67% snaps, 43% routes, 20 touches, +63 RYOE (clear lead back, and productive with his work)
Noise: Pat Freiermuth — 111 yards, 2 TDs (fun splash game that was useful for best ball, and he did have a season-high 74% routes, but there are so many TEs involved here that it’s tough); Kenneth Gainwell — 5 touches (still had 37% snaps, and in other games in this snap share range he’s tended to be closer to 10 opportunities and be a little more bye-week, spot-start viable)
Rams 35, Jaguars 7
Key Stat: Travis Hunter — 87% snaps (+8 vs. previous high), 14 targets, 29% TPRR, 119 air yards (+60 vs. previous high)
In Input Volatility, I was worried about the Rams seeming jetlagged with their late travel, but that was clearly a nonissue. Maybe the late travel was intentional to try to never adjust, and they all went to bed at like 6 p.m. local time Saturday? They talked about it as a business trip, which I figured was lip service, but maybe part of the issue is teams not being able to manage the schedules well enough, and that’s easier if you’re only there for like 36 hours total. Or maybe the travel didn’t matter at all. At any rate, the Rams dominated, and despite Puka Nacua being out, they did so through the air, posting the highest PROE in Week 7, through Sunday, at +10.9%. Jacksonville was also well in the positive at +6.1%, and totaled the most team air yards on the week, at 522. But they struggled to complete most of that, while the Rams moved the ball well. The other big surprise for me was after an expectations the Rams could be very concentrated, we instead got the opposite. These factors are no different than predicting player usage stuff, and it’s uncertainty we play based on past results and contextual factors just like anything else, and sometimes get wrong. In this case, the Rams leaned into a rotational element at WR and also TE starting from the first couple drives, getting depth pieces involved on an Arthur Smith level. Five WRs and four TEs were all involved in the first two drives, if I wasn’t mistaken. I saw something that said basically, “The answer between Tutu Atwell (no targets) or Jordan Whittington (4-2-9) was Konata Mumpfield (1-1-5-1)” after Mumpfield scored on the first drive, and I made a note that was not it, and that based on what we saw right away, Mumpfield was not a good play. He didn’t catch another pass. My point was that the answer was no one.
Whittington did had a solid route rate at 62%, and got the free catches on designed stuff built off the run looks that I expected, because he’s a good blocker and was used in those ways, and then they will show that same look but quickly get it to the WR on the edge one way or another. But he really only got one downfield target, on a corner route that missed. Atwell’s routes were a pretty big surprise to be so low, and then Mumpfield got the TD but was low, as well. Davante Adams (8-5-35-3) found paydirt three times, and it of course wasn’t a surprise that he led the team in routes. The fifth WR was Xavier Smith (3-2-15), who was something of a surprise up at 47% ahead of some of the other guys like Atwell.
And then beyond them, the team used a lot of multi-TE sets, with rookie Terrance Ferguson (3-1-31-1) getting some vertical usage out of WR alignments and hitting for a 31-yard TD as part of his 85 total air yards. That was intriguing, but he ran just 35% routes as both Colby Parkinson (3-3-47) and Davis Allen (1-1-4) also both contributed, and then Tyler Higbee (6-3-19) was second on the team in targets, even though his routes were severely limited at 24% as well. He got two catches early, but only finished with three. Again, this all very much shocked me, but Sean McVay’s answer to not having Nacua was to get basically every depth WR and TE on the roster a little bit more run than they’ve otherwise had.
Kyren Williams (12-54, 3-2-11) was the lead RB as usual, but Blake Corum (12-37, 1-1-6) got involved and then also got a lot of work late in a blowout script, with six of his carries coming on the Rams’ last real drive in the fourth quarter.
In the middle of the third quarter, the broadcast showed a graphic that Travis Hunter (14-8-101-1, 1-0) had not played a snap on defense. He wound up playing 14 snaps, including a one-on-one pass breakup on Adams the broadcast highlighted, but they talked about how the focus was on using him on offense, and that was clearly the way things went. Hunter’s 87% offensive snaps were a new high, and they were actually well ahead of Brian Thomas (7-3-31), who was only at a 67% route share as he hurt his shoulder late. Parker Washington (10-4-52, 3-10) was up with Hunter, but had another bad third-down drop, and it seems like the Jaguars are in some ways turning to Hunter to be the focal point of the passing game at this point. He still had a low aDOT, but his 119 air yards were 60 more than his previous high, largely thanks to a whopping 14 targets. We got his first TD on a deep crosser late, but we also saw the easy YAC ability throughout. Hunter’s role will remain uniquely volatile, but right now the arrow is pointed aggressively up.
Dyami Brown (4-2-50) was lightly used. Hunter Long (3-2-16) ran more routes but was still out-targeted by Johnny Mundt (4-1-9).
Travis Etienne (8-44, 3-1-11) got scripted out pretty quick, with the Rams scoring TDs on three of their first four drives and leading 21-0 at half. Bhayshul Tuten (5-22) still lingers in his No. 2 role.
Before half, the Jags went for it on a fourth-and-7. Trevor Lawrence broke the pocket and found space, but had multiple defenders in front of him and no shot at running for the first down. Instead of finding space behind the line of scrimmage and getting a throw up, anywhere, knowing even an INT wasn’t a huge issue on a fourth down, he dropped his eyes and kept them down, running for it the whole way. He wasn’t close to converting, and it was a turnover. These are the kinds of plays Lawrence continues to make that are pretty baffling at this point in his career. Just lacks a feel for the game that great QBs have.
Signal: Travis Hunter — 87% snaps (+8 vs. previous high), 14 targets, 29% TPRR, 119 air yards (+60 vs. previous high)
Noise: Rams — very unconcentrated receiving game other than Davante Adams (even if Puka Nacua misses more time, I’d have to imagine things would consolidate somehow, because this was very rare for Sean McVay); Blake Corum — 12 carries, matching Kyren Williams (got 6 on Rams’ final real drive, in blowout script); Travis Etienne — 9 touches (scripted out early)
Bears 26, Saints 14
Key Stat: Bears — (-10.9%) PROE, 41.5% actual pass rate (lowest in Week 7, through Sunday), 40 rush attempts (tied fourth most by a team in a game this year)