With the evolution of offensive strategy and scheme in the NFL, the quarterback position in fantasy has also evolved. For years, leaguewide pass attempts rose and rush attempts fell as the league shifted increasingly pass heavy, testing the limits of the sport. Around the time of Peyton Manning’s legendary 2013 season, we hit that critical mass at about 35 pass attempts per game.
Since then, the shifts have been about efficiency. Leaguewide completion percentage first crested 60% of all passes in 2007, and was at 61.2% in that aforementioned 2013 season. It crested 65% in 2020. That is an absolutely massive shift given a sample of tens of thousands of pass attempts per year, which typically prevents substantial statistical movement. It was at 64.8% in 2021, and 64.9% in 2018, so it seems like the shift in completions is here to stay.
Leaguewide sack percentage is down. Leaguewide adjusted yards per pass attempt are up, cresting 7.0 for the first time in NFL history in 2014 and then staying there for six of the eight seasons since. Turnover rates are way down over the past two decades, on a per-drive basis, and drives that end in a score are way up (the three-year average from 1999-2001 was scores on 29.6% of drives and turnovers on 14.6%; the three-year average from 2019-2021 was 37.8% and 11.6%; the numbers from 2009-2011, if you’re wondering, were closer to 1999-2001, meaning the past decade has been the evolutionary one in these regards).
But the single biggest change — that hits on a lot of this, but more closely impacts fantasy value at this position — is the increase in QB rushing. If we go into the RotoViz Screener and just look at QB rushing since 2000, the top-eight seasons in QB rush attempts have all come since 2017. Michael Vick was a fantastically efficient runner, but his career high in rush attempts was 123. He was also extremely unique for his era, and was the only QB with more than 105 rush attempts in a season from 2000-2010.
Lamar Jackson has beaten Vick’s career-high number by at least 10 attempts in all four of his seasons, despite not yet starting more than 15 games in a year. Jalen Hurts had 139 rush attempts in 15 games last year; Kyler Murray had 133 in 2020; Josh Allen has 100+ in three straight years, and got up to 122 in 17 games last year.
All of these guys are young, and we’re only adding names that can make this list, not removing them, as modern offenses are more receptive to the advantages of a dual-threat QB, and more teams are investing in them than ever before. Trey Lance and Justin Fields could both run 100 times this year. The floor-to-ceiling boost that strong rushing value gives a QB is well known, and it’s only increasing. Meanwhile, with passing efficiency also increasing, the mobile QBs that can put up legit passing numbers can compile mind-blowing seasons (and the less-mobile QBs need mind-blowing passing efficiency just to be in the conversation).
Let’s get into the tiers. I talked in Friday’s TE Targets and Fades about how I’ll group these tiers a couple of different ways. (You can also find Sunday’s RB Targets and Fades here.)
If I think a tier break is pretty minor, I’ll use a 1a/1b type of nomenclature.
The bigger element is when there is a cliff at the position. There’s perhaps no more important position to discuss this element than at RB, as we look to where the potentially elite names run out and the Dead Zone begins. In those instances, I’ll use this:
As for targets and fades, I will bold all players I consider targets, and italicize all those I consider fades. The goal of the rankings is to have the targets ahead of ADP and fades behind ADP, but ADP varies wildly — especially on some of the sites where home leagues are often played — so know that in a lot of cases I would probably adjust the fades down if their ADPs are lower on your site and the targets up if they are higher. In other words, it’s OK to be higher on the targets than my rankings, and it’s perfectly fine to pass on a fade if he’s the best available in my rankings at a point in your draft.
If you’re looking for more reasoning on a player, I likely discussed them in the Offseason Stealing Signals pieces you can find in the full archive at bengretch.substack.com.
Tier 1a
1. Josh Allen
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Kyler Murray
4. Patrick Mahomes
The above about rushing production probably helps illuminate why I’m so high on Jackson and Murray. Jackson is an especially unique case in that we’re not talking 500 or 700 rushing yards, but more like 1,000 — which he’s done in both of his healthy full-time starting seasons — and that provides a next level of safety and upside. We saw that upside in 2019, although his passing numbers didn’t carry him quite the same way in 2020. That rebounded in 2021 before injuries took their toll, and I’m very much back in.
Murray doesn’t have the same rushing upside, but his offense presents far more passing potential, and we saw him put it all together in 2020. I’m very high on Mahomes and the Chiefs, and in 6-point passing TD leagues, could see taking him as the QB2. Justin Herbert would also join this tier in 6-point pass TD leagues.