If you missed it, I explained what TPRR is and how to think about it in a free post earlier today. Based on historical rates, seeing a target on upwards of 30% of routes is a very strong number. Anything over 20% can be solid, especially if the player runs enough routes. Down around 15% gets a little concerning. It’s only slightly different by position, with WR rates expected to be a bit higher and TE benchmarks seemingly lowest.
I’ll list each player who has run at least 15 routes and has seen at least one target. I’ve listed TPRR in percentage form here because I think that’s a little easier to think about — the number you’re seeing is the percentage of routes a player is targeted on.
Arizona
DeAndre Hopkins (29.4%)
KeeSean Johnson (24.1%)
Chase Edmonds (23.9%)
Andy Isabella (20%)
Larry Fitzgerald (13.9%)
Christian Kirk (10.7%)
Darrell Daniels (9.4%)
Dan Arnold (8.9%)
Kenyan Drake (7.9%)
Maxx Williams (6.7%)
DeAndre Hopkins has an elite TPRR, no real surprise there. Christian Kirk has really struggled to earn targets, but I blamed some of Week 1 on his matchup with Richard Sherman. Kirk notably had an 18.9% TPRR as a rookie that improved to 19.7% on far more routes in year two, despite playing through an ankle injury. Still, this early-season trend is not a great look compared to a guy like Andy Isabella, whose lack of playing time continues to be baffling.
The difference between Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake here was a driving force in my love for Edmonds in Stealing Signals this week.
Atlanta
Russell Gage (26.4%)
Calvin Ridley (24.4%)
Keith Smith (20%)
Julio Jones (19.3%)
Brian Hill (17.1%)
Brandon Powell (16.7%)
Olamide Zaccheaus (14.6%)
Ito Smith (13.8%)
Hayden Hurst (13.5%)
Luke Stocker (10.5%)
Todd Gurley (8.5%)
Julio Jones had a TPRR of 26% last year, his lowest rate since his second season. He was at 29% in 2018 and 30.5% in 2017. Calvin Ridley is legit, but Russell Gage is higher than I expected.
I noted in Signals Hayden Hurst has a TPRR well off the number Austin Hooper posted in Atlanta last year. That’s an early concern area for him, especially given he saw just one target with Jones out last week.
Oof, Todd Gurley.
Baltimore
Mark Andrews (22.4%)
Marquise Brown (21.7%)
Mark Ingram (15.4%)
Nick Boyle (13.5%)
Miles Boykin (12.2%)
Willie Snead IV (11.4%)
J.K. Dobbins (10.9%)
Mark Andrews’ routes have been up and his TPRR has actually been way down from posting a rate over 30% last year.
These numbers are down across the board, in part because Lamar Jackson’s scrambling ability means on many plays where guys are out in routes, there’s no target at all.
Buffalo
Isaiah McKenzie (36.8%)
Stefon Diggs (23.9%)
Cole Beasley (21.3%)
Devin Singletary (20.8%)
John Brown (16.3%)
Dawson Knox (15.8%)
Tyler Kroft (15.6%)
Zack Moss (12.1%)
Gabriel Davis (11.6%)
Isaiah McKenzie has only run 19 routes, so ignore that.
Stefon Diggs is smashing, while John Brown has air yards in his favor — I’m not as concerned about a rate like that when the guy is a downfield threat with splash play potential. The depth of their routes explains a lot of the difference between Brown and Cole Beasley, although Beasley is up a bit over last year and Brown is down about five percentage points (21.2% last year).
Carolina
Mike Davis (42.5%)
D.J. Moore (23.9%)
Robby Anderson (22.8%)
Seth Roberts (20.8%)
Christian McCaffrey (16.7%)
Curtis Samuel (15.7%)
Chris Manhertz (7.7%)
Ian Thomas (4.8%)
The Mike Davis in garbage time in Week 2 thing shows up here, but then he also saw a ton of targets in Week 3, and I discussed this in Signals. He’s not going to maintain a rate more than double what Christian McCaffrey was seeing but he’s also very valuable for now.
D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are the core of the downfield passing game, as noted last week. Curtis Samuel is less important, and Ian Thomas is a ghost.
Chicago
Allen Robinson (29%)
Demetrius Harris (20.8%)
Anthony Miller (18.9%)
Jimmy Graham (17.3%)
Tarik Cohen (16.7%)
David Montgomery (16.7%)
Cordarrelle Patterson (16.7%)
Darnell Mooney (14.7%)
Javon Wims (13.2%)
Cole Kmet (11.1%)
Ted Ginn (10.3%)
Here’s some evidence Anthony Miller is actually better than Matt Nagy seems to think.
David Montgomery seeing the same rate as Tarik Cohen so far is a positive sign for Montgomery’s value now that his routes could tick up (assuming that work doesn’t go to Cordarrelle Patterson).
Cincinnati
Giovani Bernard (24.6%)
A.J. Green (24.1%)
Mike Thomas (20.9%)
Auden Tate (19%)
Tyler Boyd (17.6%)
C.J. Uzomah (16.9%)
Tee Higgins (16%)
Drew Sample (13.5%)
John Ross (11.7%)
Joe Mixon (9.7%)
I called Joe Mixon’s routes a positive sign again this week and I’ll note Mixon has posted a TPRR between 17%-22% in each of his three seasons. Giovani Bernard is typically in that same range. This early-season sub-10% trend isn’t good for Mixon but could just be variance compared to the larger sample.
Cleveland
Kareem Hunt (31.3%)
Odell Beckham (28.2%)
Jarvis Landry (17.6%)
Harrison Bryant (15.8%)
Austin Hooper (14.9%)
KhaDarel Hodge (13%)
Nick Chubb (7.5%)
Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are maybe a different story than Cincinnati because Hunt was at 22.6% last year while Chubb was at 15.4%. Hunt’s TD this week was while split out wide, and while I haven’t tested it I’d theorize that type of usage is a positive for a running back to post a high TPRR.
Dallas
Tony Pollard (31.3%)
Cedrick Wilson (25.9%)
Amari Cooper (23.8%)
Dalton Schultz (21.1%)
Ezekiel Elliott (18.2%)
CeeDee Lamb (17.5%)
Noah Brown (16.7%)
Blake Bell (12%)
Michael Gallup (11.1%)
Blake Jarwin (5.9%)
Dalton Schultz has been very involved early, CeeDee Lamb is in a solid enough spot, and Michael Gallup has been relegated to a deep threat role with splash week potential like we saw in Week 3.
Also, Ezekiel Elliott’s career numbers go 14.0%, 12.4%, 22.1%, and then 14.6% last year. His smash season in 2018 (the 22.1% year) was largely driven by 77 receptions and was only limited by relatively few touchdowns. Back up at 18.2% and with four touchdowns already, he’s in a great spot.
Denver
Courtland Sutton (30%)
Jerry Jeudy (27%)
Nick Vannett (22.2%)
Noah Fant (20.4%)
Royce Freeman (18.8%)
Melvin Gordon III (17.4%)
KJ Hamler (15.8%)
Jake Butt (15.8%)
Tim Patrick (14.3%)
DaeSean Hamilton (6.6%)
I talked a little about KJ Hamler versus Jerry Jeudy and there’s no real contest so far — Jeudy’s much-discussed route-running ability has translated early, and he’s a guy I’ve probably not praised enough in Stealing Signals yet.
Noah Fant has taken a step forward from a 16.0% rate last year.
Detroit
D'Andre Swift (29.3%)
Kenny Golladay (25%)
Danny Amendola (24.3%)
Jamal Agnew (22.2%)
T.J. Hockenson (19%)
Quintez Cephus (18.8%)
Marvin Hall (16.7%)
Marvin Jones (14.3%)
Adrian Peterson (14.3%)
Jesse James (11.4%)
Kerryon Johnson (7.7%)
Here’s where the D’Andre Swift optimism still exists, plus why I’m excited about T.J. Hockenson’s routes ticking up in Week 3. Hockenson posted a 19.5% TPRR last year.
Rookie Quintez Cephus has looked interesting so far in terms of drawing volume, but he hasn’t done much and then his snaps were sharply slashed when Kenny Golladay returned in Week 3.
Green Bay
Aaron Jones (33.3%)
Davante Adams (31.3%)
Jace Sternberger (29.4%)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (20.2%)
Allen Lazard (16.5%)
Robert Tonyan (11.9%)
Jamaal Williams (11.9%)
Tyler Ervin (11.8%)
Marcedes Lewis (11.5%)
Darrius Shepherd (6.7%)
Three dudes at 29% or higher! This gets back to me talking in I believe Week 2 about how Aaron Rodgers has started keying on guys a lot more later in his career versus an early-career trend of spreading things around. But this mostly only applies to Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Jace Sternberger has only run 17 routes — he’s buried behind Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis right now.
Houston
Darren Fells (26.7%)
Brandin Cooks (17.8%)
Will Fuller (17.6%)
Kenny Stills (17.4%)
Randall Cobb (14.1%)
Jordan Akins (12.5%)
David Johnson (11.3%)
David Johnson has been running routes on the outside, as I noted in Stealing Signals, but apparently even that can’t make Deshaun Watson care to throw to running backs.
The Darren Fells and Jordan Akins dynamic is super weird, because Akins runs way more routes, but Fells stays involved when he does get out there. Akins has run 96 routes to Fells’ 30, but has only out-targeted him 12 to eight.
Indianapolis
Nyheim Hines (28.9%)
Mo Alie-Cox (26.8%)
Jonathan Taylor (23.1%)
Parris Campbell (22.5%)
T.Y. Hilton (21.5%)
Michael Pittman (16.9%)
Daurice Fountain (13.3%)
Zach Pascal (12.5%)
Jack Doyle (8.3%)
Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle are basically the same thing as Fells and Akins above. Alie-Cox ran just seven routes this past week when Doyle returned, but showed his upside in a larger role in Week 2 with Doyle out.
Say it with me: Philip Rivers loves throwing to his running backs.
T.Y. Hilton hasn’t hit yet, but the TPRR is solid.
Jacksonville
James Robinson (28.9%)
James O'Shaughnessy (25.7%)
Chris Conley (22.9%)
Chris Thompson (19%)
Laviska Shenault (18.4%)
Collin Johnson (17.9%)
Keelan Cole (16.2%)
Tyler Eifert (11.3%)
D.J. Chark (10.4%)
D.J. Chark was at 16.1% in a limited rookie sample, 19.2% in his breakout second season, and has caught every target he’s seen and been efficient in his first two games. He obviously missed Week 3, and is a buy low because that TPRR is going to rise.
Laviska Shenault is seeing a solid rate for a rookie in his first three career games. Chris Conley, meanwhile, we have a larger sample on. He was at 15.1% last year after sitting sub-10% in his final two years in Kansas City. I don’t expect him to stay above 20% — most of that was Week 3, since he played a smaller role in Weeks 1 and 2, and I talked in Signals about how they seemed to force him into a No. 1 role as part of the gameplan with Chark out. It didn’t work.
Kansas City
Travis Kelce (20.5%)
Darrel Williams (20%)
Sammy Watkins (19.8%)
Tyreek Hill (19.3%)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (18.7%)
Mecole Hardman (14.9%)
Darwin Thompson (13.3%)
Demarcus Robinson (13.1%)
Tyreek Hill has been over 20% every season of his career, and was at 24.8% last year and 22.1% in 2018.
Mecole Hardman doesn’t have a high TPRR even in his limited role but the value of his targets in terms of depth and the quarterback they are coming from are why he still matters.
After a slow Week 1 in terms of targets, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is right where he needs to be, and my mild concerns have been extinguished.
Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen (28.8%)
Hunter Henry (22.3%)
Austin Ekeler (20%)
Joshua Kelley (16%)
Mike Williams (14.9%)
K.J. Hill (10%)
Jalen Guyton (6.3%)
Austin Ekeler has gone 25.4%, 24.7%, 28.7% over this three seasons. His rate in just Weeks 2 and 3 with Justin Herbert under center? 25.9%.
Joshua Kelley’s 18.2% rate in just Weeks 2 and 3 is also higher than his full season rate.
Mike Williams was banged up in Week 3 but was at just 8.8% across Weeks 2 and 3 with Herbert under center, suggesting not just that Tyrod Taylor was better for him but that Herbert doesn’t want to go downfield much.
Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are the studs.
Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson (25%)
Cooper Kupp (22.7%)
Van Jefferson (22.2%)
Tyler Higbee (21.6%)
Robert Woods (16.7%)
Gerald Everett (14.8%)
Josh Reynolds (12.5%)
Malcolm Brown (8.9%)
Darrell Henderson ran way fewer routes than Malcolm Brown last week and Brown has 56 routes on the season to Henderson’s 20, but man I hope that adjusts next week. Henderson could be a monster, though obviously Cam Akers looms.
Robert Woods has been steadily between 20% and 22% for four straight years, and the Rams have manufactured him a higher rate of touches on end arounds to start 2020 than his per-game rates in prior years. Nothing to worry about there.
Las Vegas
Darren Waller (28.4%)
Josh Jacobs (25%)
Hunter Renfrow (18.8%)
Henry Ruggs (16.7%)
Zay Jones (14.7%)
Jalen Richard (13.8%)
Foster Moreau (12.5%)
Bryan Edwards (10.5%)
Jason Witten (10.5%)
Nelson Agholor (10%)
Josh Jacobs was at 17.7% last year, which is a solid enough rate. His routes have crept up, plus his TPRR is much higher. But I’ve voiced some minor concerns I have that they are just sort of force-feeding him targets early because it was an offseason storyline, and that as we get deeper into the season they might rotate a bit more, and his backups naturally fit better on passing downs.
Things have been pretty spread otherwise here, but Darren Waller obviously pops and Hunter Renfrow was way up at 23.1% as a rookie so his solid rate early this year is again notable.
Miami
Myles Gaskin (23.5%)
Mike Gesicki (22.5%)
DeVante Parker (20.2%)
Isaiah Ford (18.5%)
Jakeem Grant (16.1%)
Preston Williams (12.1%)
Matt Breida (6.3%)
Durham Smythe (5%)
Mike Gesicki at 22.5% is very interesting. Much was made, a lot by me, of his massive route numbers this offseason and how infrequently he lined up inline. But he only posted a TPRR of 15.4% after 14.2% as a rookie, so I backed off my early-offseason optimism on him a bit later in the summer, once I’d done this TPRR research. But it’s hard to ignore the 22.5% early this year from a plus athlete, former second-round pick in his third season whose targets are frequently downfield and thus of higher value than average. Might be related to DeVante Parker missing snaps, but good early sign there regardless.
We don’t have any past data on Myles Gaskin so I’ve been free to be probably too optimistic in Stealing Signals. But it’s just so much more fun to play this game thinking every small sample young player is going to be amazing forever, and you can’t stop me from doing exactly that.
There’s been speculation Preston Williams isn’t fully healthy after his ACL tear, and he was at a 22.1% TPRR last year so that might explain the full 10 percentage point drop so far.
Minnesota
Alexander Mattison (28.6%)
Adam Thielen (23.6%)
Justin Jefferson (20.8%)
Olabisi Johnson (18.2%)
Dalvin Cook (13.5%)
Kyle Rudolph (11.8%)
Irv Smith (10%)
Week 3 obviously had a big impact on the rates for both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out going forward, but I talked about it in Signals this week.
Dalvin Cook was at 23% last year and 19.7% the year before, so I trust the larger sample and think that 13.5% will rise. I think Alexander Mattison’s high rate is evidence of that, and that it’s essentially been variance because unlike some other RB duos, these guys don’t seem to be used materially differently.
Irv Smith was at 15.1% as a rookie, and Kyle Rudolph was at 13.6% himself last year, so I’m not sure what’s going on with the TE targets here.
New England
N'Keal Harry (25%)
Julian Edelman (24.7%)
Rex Burkhead (23.4%)
Damiere Byrd (12.4%)
Ryan Izzo (6%)
New England only has five guys who have run 15 routes and been targeted. Wild.
Obviously James White will be on this list when he’s back. N’Keal Harry is getting some manufactured looks near the line of scrimmage and it’s nice to see the high rate.
New Orleans
Alvin Kamara (39.5%)
Latavius Murray (23.5%)
Deonte Harris (20.9%)
Jared Cook (19.4%)
Michael Thomas (16.1%)
Josh Hill (15.8%)
Emmanuel Sanders (14.4%)
Tre'Quan Smith (13.4%)
Adam Trautman (12%)
The Drew Brees isn’t throwing downfield thing couldn’t be better encapsulated than Alvin Kamara’s ridiculous 39.5% TPRR. And then Latavius Murray is second on the team. Good luck anyone else.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley (25%)
Kaden Smith (20.6%)
Sterling Shepard (19.2%)
Golden Tate (18.2%)
Evan Engram (17.2%)
Darius Slayton (16.8%)
C.J. Board (16.3%)
Dion Lewis (13.6%)
Damion Ratley (5.9%)
Evan Engram has been over 20% all three seasons of his career, which is very strong for a tight end. I’m not really overreacting to his 17.2% early, which still has him tied for seventh among the league’s TEs in targets. The bigger concern might be that he hasn’t been efficient at all, though I do think that has to regress positively. He’s run 116 routes through three games, way more than Kaden Smith’s 34, so I’m not overreacting to him seeing fewer targets than Smith either. Better days are ahead.
New York Jets
Jamison Crowder (31.6%)
Chris Herndon (23.9%)
Lawrence Cager (22.2%)
Braxton Berrios (17.7%)
Chris Hogan (15.8%)
Breshad Perriman (14.3%)
Josh Malone (13.6%)
La'Mical Perine (13.3%)
Le'Veon Bell (10.5%)
Frank Gore (8.7%)
Ryan Griffin (8%)
Jamison Crowder had a monster Week 1, but for reference was at 22.3% last year, which was a career high.
Chris Herndon is posting a strong TPRR but just not running enough routes for whatever Adam Gase reason. Could be an opportunity but I’m pretty pessimistic about this team across the board.
Philadelphia
Greg Ward (25%)
Dallas Goedert (23.6%)
DeSean Jackson (22.4%)
Miles Sanders (20.8%)
Zach Ertz (17.7%)
Boston Scott (15.4%)
Richard Rodgers (12.5%)
Jalen Reagor (11.9%)
Deontay Burnett (11.5%)
John Hightower (9.5%)
Corey Clement (9.5%)
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (5.9%)
OK, let’s talk about Greg Ward. His TPRR last year was 20.2% and he was very good, then was good last week. He was dope as a quarterback at Houston, leading them to a Peach Bowl win over Florida State and an end-of-season top-10 ranking in his junior year during which he ran for 1,114 yards and 21 touchdowns on top of nearly 3,000 passing yards. The football skills are there, and he’s always drawn a lot of targets per route. He’s one of my favorite short-term WR pickups and cheap DFS options.
Boston Scott had a crazy 29.9% TPRR last year that, along with his size and athleticism, had me comparing him to Austin Ekeler this offseason. That 15.4% number and a very small role overall is making me look stupid. Miles Sanders is obviously also very good and I talked about he just missed out on a long receiving touchdown this week because of Carson Wentz. I just thought both backs might be good like late last year. Doesn’t appear to be the case so far.
Zach Ertz was at 23.6% last year, and at least 24.8% the two prior seasons. With Dallas Goedert now out, expect that 17.7% to shoot up and soon.
Pittsburgh
Diontae Johnson (27.7%)
James Conner (19.6%)
James Washington (18.9%)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (17%)
Eric Ebron (16.3%)
Chase Claypool (15.7%)
Vance McDonald (15.2%)
Jaylen Samuels (12%)
This is sort of what we’d expect from Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster given their box score production so far. For reference, Johnson was at 20.4% last year, which was impressive for a rookie and it wouldn’t have been wild to see him climb this year like we’re seeing.
Smith-Schuster was at 18.2% as a rookie, 23.5% in his monster second year, and 18.3% in his third season while banged up and playing with terrible quarterbacks who at various times didn’t throw downfield. I expect him to settle in over 20% this year when it’s all said and done, not at the 17% he’s at now.
San Francisco
Jordan Reed (40.5%)
Raheem Mostert (33.3%)
Jerick McKinnon (24.4%)
Brandon Aiyuk (19%)
Trent Taylor (18.8%)
Kendrick Bourne (16.3%)
George Kittle (16.1%)
Kyle Juszczyk (14.3%)
Ross Dwelley (13.2%)
Dante Pettis (2.9%)
Damn, Jordan Reed. He’s going be sidelined again for like two months.
Brandon Aiyuk at 19% is solid for a rookie, especially one who gets touches in the running game.
The running backs have been involved at a really high rate, including Jeff Wilson and Tevin Coleman who have combined for seven targets on 23 routes.
Seattle
Tyler Lockett (24.2%)
Chris Carson (18.8%)
Jacob Hollister (18.8%)
D.K. Metcalf (16.8%)
Will Dissly (16.7%)
Travis Homer (14.3%)
Greg Olsen (13.6%)
Carlos Hyde (11.5%)
David Moore (11.1%)
Freddie Swain (7%)
D.K. Metcalf was at 18.2% last year, and his targets are obviously higher value. Tyler Lockett was at 19.1% in a jump from prior seasons, but it wouldn’t be all that wild to me if he stayed pretty solidly above 20% considering Metcalf is now drawing elite corners like Stephon Gilmore in Week 2.
Greg Olsen has run far more routes than either of the other two tight ends, and the TPRR differences here are mostly negligible. We know that both Jacob Hollister and Will Dissly have been productive at times in the past.
Tampa Bay
O.J. Howard (28.9%)
LeSean McCoy (28.6%)
Leonard Fournette (27.6%)
Ronald Jones (23.7%)
Chris Godwin (17.1%)
Rob Gronkowski (16.9%)
Mike Evans (16.5%)
Scotty Miller (16.5%)
Justin Watson (13.2%)
I mentioned O.J. Howard in my other post, and historically he’s been a low TPRR guy with strong YPT, although in his second season his TPRR of 18.7% was decent enough and along with his efficiency was the cause of the 2019 ADP. But now that he’s playing with Tom Brady, while he isn’t playing a big role, he’s being targeted way more per route. And given that he’s shown a ton of talent on the per-target efficiency side of things, I’m pocketing that for dynasty, or if Rob Gronkowski misses time.
All the backs are being highly targeted here as well, which probably has to do with Brady.
Chris Godwin has been between 19%-21% in all three seasons, so he’s off that a bit. But Mike Evans hasn’t been below 21.2% his entire career, even right away as a rookie. So his 16.5% stands out — Evans has two seasons with a TPRR at 28.9% and 29.0% on his ledger and should at least finish above 20%, even if Brady isn’t great for him.
Tennessee
Jonnu Smith (29.4%)
Adam Humphries (24.1%)
MyCole Pruitt (20%)
Corey Davis (19.6%)
A.J. Brown (17.9%)
Kalif Raymond (17.9%)
Anthony Firkser (14.3%)
Derrick Henry (12.7%)
Jeremy McNichols (5%)
Cameron Batson (4.8%)
Jonnu Smith was at a career-high 18.3% last year, so this early-season target influx has been great to see.
Derrick Henry is running more routes, but was at 11.9% TPRR last year so 12.7% is maybe about what we’d expect.
Washington
Isaiah Wright (33.3%)
Logan Thomas (22.9%)
Terry McLaurin (21.4%)
Dontrelle Inman (17%)
Antonio Gibson (16.7%)
J.D. McKissic (15.8%)
Steven Sims (8.2%)
Marcus Baugh (5.9%)
Logan Thomas is running a ton of routes and seeing a high TPRR, but as I noted in Signals this week, without some production soon there are questions about whether he has the ability to make good on this big role. Of course, Dwayne Haskins hasn’t played well, either. Thomas is a hold for me for now.
Antonio Gibson’s routes have jumped around week to week, but the TPRR is fairly solid for a RB. We’d just like to see a more consistent passing-game role, and they like J.D. McKissic, too.
Keep up the great work!!
Fantastic read.